weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 2168. After a gap down opening on Monday the market declined to SPX 2144 by Tuesday. A gap up opening on Wednesday carried the market to SPX 2164. Then a pullback on Thursday to SPX 2150 was followed by a rally into Friday to SPX 2166. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2145, only to end the week at SPX 2154. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Economic reports for the week were again mixed. On the downtick: construction spending, wholesale inventories, the Q3 GDP estimate, the ADP, plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, auto sales, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the PPI and Retail sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

While the SPX has remained in a narrow 2119-2194 trading range for about three months, we are seeing some positive trending markets overseas. One in Europe and one emerging market. When we throw the NDX/NAZ into the mix we believe these markets and indices are suggesting future economic and earnings growth ahead. This might be the reason the SPX has not had a meaningful correction since the 2194 all time high. To date, after about two months, it has only dropped about 3.5%. The smallest percentage correction since 2006.

The positive trending European market is the FTSE. It has recently confirmed five waves up from the February 2016 low, and nearly made a new all time high this week. The emerging market index is the NIFTY. The NIFTY has risen, in one single wave, from the February lows to within 1.5% of its all time high. The NDX/NAZ have both risen in five waves up from their February lows and have made all time new highs already. This is bull market activity!


In the meantime the SPX has risen in three waves from its February lows, keeping the numerous bearish scenarios alive. We labeled the first uptrend Intermediate wave i at SPX 2111. Then after an irregular Intermediate wave ii correction to SPX 1992, we labeled the next uptrend Minor wave 1 of Int. iii to SPX 2194. A Minor wave 2 correction continues to appear to be underway. When it concludes the SPX should kick off into Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave iii. Potentially the point of recognition for this bull market.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

The current downtrend began about two months ago off the SPX 2194 all time high. Since then the market has been quite choppy while remaining in a narrow 75 point range. It appears the market has been marking time, rather than marking down price during this correction. Thus far the daily/weekly RSI’s have reset to levels similar to the previous correction. And the daily/weekly MACD’s have reset and turned slightly higher without any impulsive activity. This suggests the SPX may need to retest those lows with a possible positive divergence to get the bulls excited again.


The initial decline from SPX 2194 can be counted in two ways. Either an expanding diagonal fifth wave, or a contracting diagonal ‘a’ wave. Either way works at this point, since the market has had a multitude of waves during the past two months in a seemingly random pattern. Nevertheless, as will be explained below, we think a retest of the OEW 2116 pivot range is the most probable outcome before this market starts impulsing again. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots.


While this downtrend has been great for day traders it has been just the opposite for investors. There have been a multitude of waves keeping both the bulls and the bears hopes alive. If one filters out some of the noise created by all these waves, and just focus on the larger swings we see a pattern.

We have labeled the first decline, from SPX 2194, as a three wave Minute A: 2157-2188-2119. Then we labeled a choppy rally to SPX 2180 as Minute B. And now Minute C should be underway from that high, and we have three waves down with the third still in progress: 2142-2175-2144 thus far. On the surface this information is fairly obvious, and has little meaning until one actually measures the waves.


The length of Minute A’s three waves were: 37-31-69 points. The length of Minute C’s three waves are: 38-33-31(thus far). See the pattern? The first and second waves of each decline were nearly identical. This suggests the third wave may be nearly identical as well. If it is, the market should find support just above SPX 2100 in the coming week or so. If a little shorter, then the OEW 2116 pivot range should provide support again for the end of the correction. We may also add that the third wave down of Minute C is also three waves. And, if this third wave is 1.618 times the first support is at SPX 2116. If twice the first wave support is at SPX 2104. Within all the noise there is actually a pattern.

Short term support is at SPX 2142/45 and the 2131 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2162/65 and the 2177 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week right at neutral.


Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 0.8%.

European markets were quite mixed for a net gain of 0.2%.

The Commodity equity group were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.6%.

The DJ World index lost 0.6%.


Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.8% on the week.

Crude confirmed its uptrend and gained 3.3% on the week.

Gold continues its downtrend and lost 5.0% on the week.

The USD continued its uptrend and gained 1.2% on the week.


Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, export/import prices, and the treasury deficit. Friday: the PPI, retail sales, business inventories, consumer sentiment, and a speech from FED chair Yellen. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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141 Responses to weekend update

  1. NEWBIE says:

    I don’t know if these crooks can or are willing to hold this pig up for much longer. Roosters are coming home to roost.

  2. phil1247 says:

    TLT/ ……. BONDS

    most aggressive extension short failed

    took profits in TBT

    awaiting next short entry for bonds

  3. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html

    With odds of a 20 percent chance for TRUMP to pull it out, the spread is so wide that the street has to be ignoring the elections today. A non-event and the market will rally or fall BEFORE results are in based on electoral map.

    Stubborn market despite the outflows and P/E spread. Some called this market manipulated for years. I look at fundamental health of our nation after the biggest debacle in our history and declared a strong consumer a full year ago when most saw the charts as a prelude to a bottomless pit. The consumer is living up to MY expectations. Blame the next drop on anything but the consumer. In a sweet spot over last 2 years as wages grew at a 4 to 1 ratio over inflation. I mentioned this fact last year but most just dismissed me as a die hard Pollyanna. Not true. I dwell in the present and always look for major trend changing events. Are there ones now? You bet but jury is out on results. Corporate America has managed to pull the rabbit out of the hat for the first 5 years of this bull run. The OIL debacle put as wrench into understanding just how weak or strong they are. China is another wild card. Can they meet expectations for a sharp rise in earnings over next 4 months?

  4. Peter Sliney says:

    This market has the personality of a dead battery.

  5. fionamargaret says:

    UVXY broke the base of its pattern today….now a buy at 12….instead of 16…..so if this is correct , the S&P should be going up…

    • Not on a fundamental basis. In fact it is completely opposite. I was a young lad then and I “knew” absolutely knew a crash was coming. I didn’t know about the new fangled index options. if I had I would be very wealthy today. Got my parents to divest in all stocks and bonds 2 weeks before the drop. I also told them to reenter the market 3 months later and they reluctantly did. Then it was a simple case of accelerated economic expansion with absurdly high interest rates. The transition from cash to credit was taking off then and bubbles were seen everywhere.

      Today we have stagflation and the consumer is just starting to readjust from the mortgage debacle. While the charts look the same and the outcome might very well be similar it certainly isn’t from domestic fundamentals. In fact I wish it was 1987 again. We had no deep recession and immediately resumed the torrid pace up.

    • tomasso60 says:

      thanks AB

  6. mtu MTU says:

    [1135am] SPX update-
    You are here. Scenario tracking. See chart and weekend commentary.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    SPY at the top of the triangle – now what? Break out higher or fail and turn lower?


  8. cmucha68 says:

    Like I said last week: oil towards 60$ and SPX up up and away. No 36$ oil like “Jobjas” forecasted with his C wave when oil was at 48. both markets have a good way to go up before meaningful correction.

  9. Lee X says:

    Happy Thanksgiving eh ?

  10. captbara says:

    NAS futures just broke previous highs

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Hillary “won” the first debate and has enjoyed watching her lead go from 1pt to now 3.5pts since. Trump “won” last night’s debate and stopped the bleeding, we’ll see if it helps him in the polls over the next 2 weeks leading into debate #3.

    Markets might be higher this a.m., but so is the VIX. S&P still inside the triangle, upside TL lies at about 2,170

    • purplember says:

      Both are very flawed and it’s embarrassing. with that said, one thing is clear this election, the corrupt media is ALL IN for Hillary. didn’t the Nazi’s control the media ?

      • Saul Alinsky’s guide to taking over a country . (Hillary’s hero).
        1) Healthcare — Control healthcare and you control the people

        2) Poverty — Increase the Poverty level as high as possible, poor people are easier to control

        3) Debt — Increase the debt to an unsustainable level. That way you are able to increase taxes, and this will produce more poverty.

        4) Gun Control — Remove the ability to defend themselves from the Government. That way you are able to create a police state.

        5) Welfare — Take control of every aspect of their lives (Food, Housing, and Income).

        6) Education — Take control of what people read and listen to — take control of what children learn in school.
        7) Religion — Remove the belief in the God from the Government and schools.
        8) Class Warfare — Divide the people into the wealthy and the poor. This will cause more discontent and it will be easier to take (Tax) the wealthy with the support of the poor.
        Gold bouncing thanks to China holiday ending/DB raising money?Trump performance-which was great.The Abe Lincoln comeback was genius.Good luck all.

        • NEWBIE says:

          Awesome Post!!!!

          • Alinsky wrote that in 1972,I believe.Obama’s followed it and Clinton as well.

            • lcd00 says:

              FACT CHECK from Snopes: “The above-quoted list of steps for “How to create a social state” is another example of a political attempt to tie the names of Saul Alinsky with those of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But the list is not something taken from the actual writings of Saul Alinsky, nor does it even sound like something he would have written (e.g., the line about “controlling health care” is anachronistic for his era, and the idea of “increasing the poverty level as high as possible” is the very antithesis of what Alinsky worked to achieve). This list is simply a modern variant of the decades-old, apocryphal Communist Rules for Revolution piece that was originally passed along without attribution until Alinsky’s name became attached to it (presumably because someone out there thought it sounded like something Alinsky might have written).”

              • Ignorance is bliss. Poverty rate plunged last year and the low interest rate easy credit has helped the poor and middle class as nothing else could have. I find it interesting the rhetoric about how badly we are doing as the jobs and wages are in a sweet spot. Last 2 years wage growth averaged 4 to 1 against inflation. I saw this last year and understood that it would be close to Impossible for the market to show a crash pattern under these circumstances. Weak earnings while we rebuild the consumer based economy is exactly the thing that drives future growth. People complained when the market and earnings did so well on the backs of the consumer and now it’s completely turned on its head and these same people still complain. We whine when we should be grateful and appreciate the now, for there will be a time when we fall into the abyss. Appreciate what we have for you will surely miss it tomorrow.

                BTW, WE the PEOPLE allowed this to happen and are still being led by the nose in the wrong direction. Less regulations? More tax cuts helping corporations and upper class? Dismantling middle class by breaking up Unions? Only major economic power that DID NOT have universal health care. The word PENSION has been stricken from the vocabulary as if it was a dirty word. NYC had a riot over conscription during the Civil War. They managed to lynch blacks. This is what we are doing today. Misguided and misdirected anger.

              • purplember says:

                snopes has liberal bias. not trustworthy like 99.9% of all media

  12. captbara says:

    Dax looking good. Broke the hourly falling wedge, and now trying for the daily bull flag I mentioned on Fri.

  13. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  14. pooch77 says:

    Futes up still stuck in triangle

  15. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: Markets Direction Starting to Clarify

  16. vivelaamo says:

    Any nasty surprises to wake up to tomorrow like Friday?

    • mcgcapital says:

      Vive, were you long sterling dollar? I take it it gapped over your stop and they closed you much lower down? I was considering a long but didn’t take it – really unlucky in this kind of situation

      • vivelaamo says:

        I was and I didn’t have a stop and for that reason other positions got closed out due to margin call from the sterling drop. Its my own fault in hindsight for taking silly risks but it was a still a dirty move. The ironic thing is if I did have a stop the damage could have been much worse.

  17. fionamargaret says:

    I mentioned last week John Murphy had suggested DXJ, so I looked into the nuances of what he actually was excited about…he suggested DXJ, not EWJ…and out of that he is saying it is not sufficient to go long Japan, but most importantly the yen has peaked…and that is where the money lies..if correct…so I looked at the patterns……
    Now, because YCS is still in a short pattern, I cannot predict how high, but it looks as if it is turning…and I will be able to give you a pattern once that happens….
    Of course because DXJ is hedged, you will get the benefit of the short yen…

    If someone could look at YCS and DXJ purely from a wave perspective, this would be really interesting…x

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tony, maybe you can tell me what you have for YCS…

      • tony caldaro says:

        expecting it to rise, but not back to the previous highs
        it’s bull market is done

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thanks Tony….well, now Murphy has piqued my interest I shall look at YCS’s pattern once it has formed and let you know if perhaps there is still life…and not still life…..x

          • 123 abc says:

            Fiona, the following OEW post may be of assistance; the analysis presented by Tony almost 4 months ago of the Japanese market and currency has been superbly accurate so far:


            July 10 2016 is the date of the aforementioned post which marked the exact turning point within 24 hours, and the corresponding lows/highs are still holding thus far… now that’s impressive!

            • fionamargaret says:

              Absolutely impressive…that is why I asked Tony what would happen to the hedged Nikkei with a lower yen…would it get to 20000 or just give a sigh….you notice I took his reply under advisement….
              “Its bull market is done” slammed into me….harsh….so I now have to spend some time watching how the pattern forms….otherwise I don’t know what Murphy was on about.
              Don’t worry123, I know who is the master…no Mozart wannabes here…

  18. Jimbo says:

    What would happen in the US elections if you had a really low turnout number? Would there be another Election if the turnout number is below a certain %? Is there anyway that Obama could carry on being the President?

    • tony caldaro says:

      one election, even if only three people show up
      only if he declared a dictatorship😉

      • pooch77 says:

        If 3 people vote,Hiily wins 3-0 she is president

        • tony caldaro says:

          The Ballot should be
          None of the above
          None of the above would win in a landslide

          • fionamargaret says:

            …how can you not love this guy…

            • fionamargaret says:

              …it took a lot of guts to say this…

              • He stated the obvious since majority of all Americans have no stomach for the both party choices. Lesser of 2 evils is a more apt description. This will go down in history as the most bizarre presidential election. One party parted the ways as if she earned a spot and the other was destroyed by their own rhetoric pretending the are the new liberators. They got so good at it that it backfired and put their own careers in jeopardy. Pretending to be an outsider with 20 or more years in office. If the Republicans succeed with their original plan they would all be replaced. Ironic isn’t it.

                The GANGS that couldn’t shoot straight. But wait, there should be more bizarre things down the line. if we are seeing this reaction against politicians today imagine what it would look like once a real deep recession/depression strikes. You aint seen nothin yet.

  19. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Indecision and Potential Triangles (10/7/16)
    expanded and additional chart added.
    SPX has been in a messy consolidation inside a tight and narrowing range since late September. A breakout out of this range, potentially decisive, is inevitable at this point. Moreover, recent 3-wave gyrations (strongly) suggest a potential triangle may be at play. The challenge is that there are multiple potential triangles at play. So a picture is indeed worth a thousand words here. See Chart 1.

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is GOLD at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • kvilia says:

      Exactly my plan bouraq. Looking to sell on the bounce to 1289 or so, maybe play some small amount of DUST or really not, finally spending sizeable amount of my portfolio for NUGT. I think it should at least double before the end of the year.

  21. Jack Sparrow says:

    Tony your oil analysis seems to be spot on i think, now i can see a trend in hourly charts that i have seen in minutes charts which points this commodity going up to 70s…of course not in a straight line but over next few months. right now we are in the a of C (leading diagonal)

    • tony caldaro says:

      don’t think it will rise that fast
      should be choppy

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..the Opec and non-Opec members are meeting in Istanbul from 8-13th October (this week) to discuss the framework of the oil output reduction..Russia have agreed to join in..read choppiness from announcements.
        This does not affect the pattern…but you have the inside information by way of the waves…so if you want me to make money too, you have to tell me what the waves are saying….

  22. blackjak100 says:

  23. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I’ll do the Constanza here…..since Tony thinks economic expansion is going to thrust the market much higher from here I’ll say its almost over. Tony will change his count in 2017 from a P3 to a P5 completion when it falls apart next year. Using India or England or sky high levels of Amazon stocks as the reason we are in a 3 is so flawed.

  24. fionamargaret says:

    Colin Twiggs…thanks

    Thanks Tony…and everyone.

  25. Thanks Tony
    Applying the triangle height at the break it was expected that,at least,the price would reach 38,2% of the target,this didn’t happen
    And now tough to pass 23,6% fib
    A little bit weak
    Oil has an IH&S(not breaked yet) and The Dow is already testing it’s trendline

  26. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony.

  27. jobjas says:

    RUT – should show short term (& long term) direction

  28. Contrarian indicator – no bears around.

    That’s what a drawn out bull run will do. No telling when the complacency ends but odds favor a change in next 2 weeks. Earnings season hitting and election expectations should be determined. Unless there is a shocking event odds favor Clinton by 70 percent. That’s a huge margin and the street will either confirm this or deny it within 2 weeks time. The current setup suggests lows in next 2 weeks followed by BIG run till January. Must not discount seasonality.

    Did I mention 2 months ago that the boring upside and churn will be hard to play? Sometimes it pays to sit on your hands.

    • Bookmakers are potentially wrong on Trump like Brexit it should be close, Clinton sounds sensible but comes across in the debates as the smug elite.Trump could slip through if he hammers home the messages which have got him this far and deflects his weaknesses. Only Clinton can stuff this one up.

      • Sorry but the number crunchers gave all the closely contested states to TRUMP and he still didn’t have enough electoral votes. 70 percent odds this late in the game is as much as a lock in a presidential election as we ever had. I am not talking about popular votes. The market is (NOT) waiting for the results. We should have a rally started before the election. JMHO.

      • torehund says:

        He is himself, that is strength. That is often-most all you ever need.

    • pooch77 says:

      Could have a big move end of Nov,3 powerful bradley turndates in a row

  29. captbara says:

    Now that all E wavers are in complete agreement that this is a triangle, I will think of other possibilities. Since Dax and Nikkei are laggards all year, they are far closer to having their P5 bull counts broken and their margin for error is much, much smaller. This also means they hold the keys to the timing of intermediate 3.

    Current bull count for Dax: 2 of 1 of 3 of P5 completed with a double ZZ and next week int 3 begins. But 10200 must hold. This means 2100 in SP would probably not be seen and is not a triangle.

    • blackjak100 says:

      You certainly have a point and I’m concerned about the same thing. However, a double inside week and MACD hovering near 0 does add confidence to the triangle. If the triangle completed Fri, it certainly was not a five move out of it. However, wave C can still be an ED or it can be counted with a wave 1 complete followed by a 2nd wave flat completing Fri or near completion. If this count is correct, Mon should see a strong day down either after a small move higher or right out of gate.

      With that said, the only bullish count for int 3 I see is a LD which would be an unusual start to a third of a third. This scenario still requires a new low below 2141.55 with ideal target 2135ish.

      • captbara says:

        I gave up on counting SP for anything but intraday minute charts. Will wait for ST MA and range/triangle breaks as well as a breakdown in counts on Nikkei and Dax to confirm this C wave, or whatever even more bearish possibility it might be.

        FWIW NAS still looks quite strong and GDOW is showing a cleaner potential IHS than the others.

        Til then, I will put hedges on slightly this week and close them if we get a sustained move up. Maybe on the back of Fed this Wed.

  30. Tony can you explain you long term count on the Euro USD looks very oversold with a record short position? Everyone postioned for the worst plus if commodities, oil, copper, iron ore continue rise that should lead to some USD weakness? Tks

    • tony caldaro says:

      Do not see the EUR being very oversold on any timeframe.
      The EUR has been in a Primary C down since 2014.
      Been in a 1.05 to 1.17 trading range for 18 months.
      Needs to break the lows soon to keep the trend going.

      • alexhartley1 says:

        How soon are we talking Tony and if it doesn’t break the 104-105 low what does that imply please? It’s a different count and the EUR/USD needs to go back up before another more significant drop later? Or in fact the Primary C is over?

        One reason why I ask (apart from the fact I am short) is that cable had a flash crash low in Asian trading the other day at 1.13 I believe (not too far away from your 1.05-1.10 Cable bottom target). Could we have seen a top already in the USD?

        I’d appreciate your thoughts T. Thank you in advance.

  31. 123 abc says:

    Tony & OEW team, a few questions in regards to the GBP count, apologies in advance for the fastidious nature…

    Q1. Shouldn’t the Cycle-A wave from the 2007 high to the 2009 low consist of three Primary waves? The chart appears to consist of just Intermediate and Major waves.

    Q2. Shouldn’t the Primary-C wave from the 2013 low to the 2014 high consist of three Major waves? The chart appears to consist of just Minor and Intermediate waves.

    Q3. In regards to current ongoing Cycle-C wave which began at the highs of 2014 to the present lows; —is the chart correctly depicting that no Primary waves have yet completed? Could it be that the Major waves at 145.87 and 159.30 are actually Primary waves instead?

    Q4. Is the below chart on the right a possibility under OEW theory?

    • torehund says:

      I tend to prefer the lower count to the left, after the (A), there is an X-wave then A-B-C up to (B) and then C awaits of somewhat equal length as (A) ending at par..
      That said, as ugly as it looks the macd may even take out the 09 macd bottom, if so it may turn ultra -grim.
      Looking at my own Norwegian currency (currently 8 to the dollar), could descend to 16,66, and then if all breaks loose next stop is 1 Usd : 50 Nok. This is smalcap movements, but in the realm of whats possible, fundamental substrate flourishes and the public is unaware.
      I let Tony answer your intricate count questions.

    • tony caldaro says:

      1. agree, the internal labeling is wrong
      2. correct again
      3. as you can tell the internal waves are off, but the larger structure is correct. Will fix.
      4. under EW yes, but not OEW

      Didn’t think there was that much interest in the GBP

  32. 123 abc says:

    Superb analysis in the short-term section, thank you Tony for sharing the excellence of OEW theory.

  33. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    4 week swing timing also supports your pattern.


  34. Thanks Mr C.Nothing to add for a change…lol.Great weekend to all.

  35. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. Last week energy dates saw sharp moves in Gold and Pound. This week dates are Oct. 10, 13,14. If DOW breaks 18000 this week, then the doorway opens for a deeper correction, else bulls should start getting excited. Details at https://astroanalytics.wordpress.com

      • Ajney says:

        The would be first stop I would imagine for the bear train if 18000 breaks. Then 17500 and 17000. But that’s way far away, currently at atleast.

        • cmucha68 says:

          From your page:

          “If worldwide equities can get past this week without much technical damage, then bulls may get lucky. However, if bears get a foot in the door, then they may create a hurricane of their own.”

          In fact you say you don’t known where the price is going. So why telling us it may go up or down ? Every child can do that and not knowing anything about markets.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Actually Cmucha…he is being honest…the pattern shows 2120 – 2220… basically spinning wheels within that band…if we break out or down, we will have a different pattern to work with…but Tony is correct…

          • Ajney says:

            There nothing much I can do if DOW does not want to leave the 18000-18410 band :)) What I meant to say is that when a model is predicting weakness, as mine has been since early Sep., and in one of the critical weeks if DOW closes above 18410, a key retracement number, then there is considerable underlying strength in the market.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Wow. That means Dow can either go up or down. Astrology is a great thing.

  36. Thanks Tony, all of what you say is compelling. I will only add that futures have tested 2100 but not during RTH. Should it do so during RTH, it would give us a low of around 2106 in the cash market, not far from your 2104. Thanks to you and others.

  37. torehund says:

    Yes Tony we are preparing for a mini, mini flash crash towards 2100🙂

  38. Richard Glackin says:

    Tony, excellent analysis. I would also note that for the cash SPX, that 2104 is also quite close to ‘C’ = ‘A’ and for that reason I believe a good target for this ‘C’ wave down. In addition, since wave 1 of this ‘C’ wave is an abc, most likely we sill see a diagonal down for this ‘C’ wave.

  39. stormchaser80 says:

    Risk may be shifting to off. 5 days in a row of negative readings on the Technicals Model. SPX hourly showed that we may be headed out of the triangle to the downside, yet the $VIX has to jump back above the triangle for that to come to fruition. Breath continues to wane, while number of stocks above their 20/50 dma are on the verge of either shooting higher or sharply declining. TLT:TIP shows deflation fears may be creeping back into the market.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free and today does not require a login. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  40. floyd drummer says:

    thanks tony, …always a pleasure to read!

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