Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -85

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2161 close. That was the high of the day as the market started to pullback. Just after 10am the SPX hit 2156. Then after a rally to SPX 2164 just before 11am, the market declined to 2153 just after 11am. Another rally followed to SPX 2163 by 11:30, then the market declined to 2144 by 3pm. An attempted rally into the close ended the day at SPX 2150.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold dropped $43, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders and ISM services at 10am.

The market opened higher today but immediately reversed and headed lower despite the rallies in Asia and Europe. During the afternoon the SPX dropped down into the 2142/2145 zone, held support, was quite oversold, and started another rally. Too choppy to tell if this rally can reach SPX 2175/2180 again, or just fade and head even lower. The market has remained choppy, with an upside bias, for about three weeks now. Short term support is at SPX 2142 and the 2131 pivot, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum ended the day below neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: choppy downtrend activity continues

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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119 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. micky says:

    The bwave does not look done to me yet, mean time it remains a scalping paradise.

  2. captbara says:

    All indicies aligned to the upside now. If bull wants to lift off then it needs to imminently. No failure allowed here.

  3. mtu MTU says:

    [3pm] SPX update-
    Monitoring the resolution of the potential red bearish triangle B. Separately,the am gap looks likely to be filled. See charts.

  4. don’t know if its going up or down, but when ever there is a big C wave lurking goes up. I will try a short at 2162.

    Home you bears are right

  5. Ajay Singhi says:

    Short SPX at 2163, SL 2166, tgt 2131 by tomorrow

  6. Okay…major discrepenciy here on Nasdaq new highs lows.The source I use is YahooFinance…and today they have 150 new highs and 89 new lows.I thought I’d Google a breakdown of Nasdaq new highs/lows,they send me to the WSJ and those numbers are no where near that.85 new highs and 13 new lows.Another site has similar.So I assume, YahooFinance is consistently reporting wrong stats the last few weeks.These H.Os I’ve been signalling are apparently wrong on Nasdaq-based on Yahoo’s false numbers.Amazing.That has kept me very bearish since this started.Just wanted to correct the info.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    Choppiness continues only increasing the odds of a large drop. Waiting in anticipation. .

  8. phil1247 says:

    gold short squeeze brewing

    tight leash on dust

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Triangle forming on the SPY, the question: is it a wave 4 or wave B??


  10. vivelaamo says:

    The Newbie indicator works yet again. I’m going to be able to retire soon if this continues.

  11. A little info on Gold/GDX.In 2009,after breaking above its 200d,gold never dropped below its 200d for three years.Tested it a couple times.
    GdX DID drop below its 200d a few times by 10-12% once and 5% a few times,but rallied quickly thereafter.
    The biggest correction,top to bottom of GDX was from 54 to 38 or around 30%.
    This all occurred in an uptrending market.
    In 2016,peak GDX at 31.50.The 200d at 23.06.Ten percent under the 200d at 20.70ish.30% below 31.50 is around the same number(21-22).
    If the uptrend is going to continue,we rally from those extreme areas.If not,this is something else–an 8 month bear market rally.Good luck all.

  12. captbara says:

    3-3-5 flat on NAZ looks good. On SPX it would just have been a very deep retrace.

  13. Richard Glackin says:

    Right here is the 61.8 retrace of the 5 wave move down that completed yesterday before market close in ES.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      If the market follows through [‘B’ wave up ended at 2172.50] the ‘C’ wave down is starting with three 1-2’s…could be one heck of drop. While it’s a little early to say this, I’m looking for something in the 2085 range.

  14. Atlanta GDP unrevised ar 2.2 from the last reading.Must be ISM services not a part of it.

  15. cmucha68 says:

    Crude Oil and SPX up and away….

  16. H D says:

    Last week SPX rallied (34), dropped 21(55) rallied +10, dropped to 2(144) opened 21(55) today and rallied +10, so far. that’s just 3 days into October….I think that was 1 wave, another abc. So next in the sequence is?

    • fionamargaret says:

      If you want a real answer HD, give me the full number each time i.e. 2031, 2687 etc.,and I will complete the sequence….

    • fionamargaret says:

      …before SPX rallied 34, what was the number (4 digits).then add 34 and give me the number (4 digits) etc etc…look at how Tony presents in his EOD with 3or 4 numbers in a sequence…I can usually follow through with his…but I do my own charts which are totally numbers…what are we trying to achieve…do you want to know where SPX is going in small increments….or longer term numbers….

      • fionamargaret says:

        Thanks GTO…If that is what HD is asking for, why don’t you tell him….it is completely different from what I do, but I think both methods are quite complimentary and we could work together more….

    • fionamargaret says:

      Why were you asking this HD?

      • H D says:

        SPX + ~ (21) now Fiona. See where I was going w that? Just rhetorical questions. I’m a seller here.

        I’m not understanding your question though. You don’t have prices for SPX?

        • fionamargaret says:

          Not when I am working on my other computer.

          • fionamargaret says:

            I can help HD…what would you like to know…the $SPX is still bullish…and oil is very bullish, but I wasn’t in the market until an hour ago…

  17. WHAT?ISM to 57 from 51.No further comment.But there goes any gold bounceback.

  18. EL MATADOR says:

    If Trump wins = Yellen raises rates
    but if Clinton wins = status quo remains as do rates.
    Just my 2c

  19. kvilia says:

    NUGT – minimum target – 14.6, target – 15.2 — 38% and 50% retracement. Then move down to 10 +/-1.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I was worried about you Kvilia….how did you fare in the end….next time phone home..ie speak with me….I know you are a good trader….but…worried..
      Gold’s fall is being placed at the feet of the Reserve Bank of India’s new head…
      DB is still a mess…think we should watch the Friday video again…
      Bill Gross has changed his portfolio to short duration…and as GBP falls, the FTSE rises…think manipulation…
      do well…x.

  20. captbara says:

    US markets proving the hardest to count, probably because they are buying time to wait for other indices to align.

    DAX and Nikkei currently giving the easiest counts, but they need to hold recent lows or it’s a bear flip.

  21. chicotheman says:

    Looks like here comes the rally (as long as it gets started) – 2200+ in less than 2 weeks, ideal target ~2230.

  22. fotis2 says:

    CL Bulls will get excited if/when IHS validates specially on the weekly.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …well that’s a relief…I thought I was the lone voice in the wilderness espousing oil..

      • fotis2 says:

        Best trading views are those that manifest when alone in the wilderness. 😉

        • phil1247 says:


          the long from lows target on /cl is 57.85

          that would break the extension short
          and the whole 14 dollar scenario would go out the window

          still have more profitable ventures going with DUST and TBT
          so not fooling around with oil right now..
          oil.does not like to follow my rules like the others

      • Scott Ford says:

        TC’s charts too have had a $70-85 target now for 2 months I believe

        • Lee X says:

          Hey Scott , yes he has

        • fionamargaret says:

          I seem to remember that, but the number sequences were bearish/neutral…only in the last couple of days became bullish….”they’ are going to give oil data today..so look out for that..

        • fionamargaret says:

          Scott I didn’t realize it was you….well, oil has to make you money again…I think we will, but next week with the meetings regarding the Opec decision..it will be choppy..but should go up to 58 or so….that would be nice….
          Tony does great charts, and I am glad you are following him….x

      • Richard Glackin says:

        You may have been a lone voice but you were right on. I have to admit, the count I was looking for did not pan out. Having said that, I now have ‘C’ = ‘A’ right around $52.30. Lone or not, it’s a good voice!

  23. johnnymagicmoney says:

    This is a bull market no doubt but it cracks me up how the bulls on here are eternally conditioned to buy no matter what the dip. You bulls have lost your objectivity totally and no matter what the deterioration or negative divergence or risks or momentum or whatever its buy buy buy yet somehow you have convinced yourself that this market is so bearish. LMAO….your comments are evidence of the complacency. This will not end well and we aren’t far off. The new bull market calls are absolutely hysterical so is Raymond James calling for 5000 on the SnP in 8 years

    • All it would take,is “someone”,somewhere…maybe China,Russia ,Saudi Arabia to make the SPX drop about 100pts in a short time frame,through manipulating the dollar,oil,bonds.Breaking support levels by making the dollar go from 96 to 100 in a couple hours and it’s 1987 all over again.Of course this would be done as an act of politics or war or protest about our policies.It would probably be easier than we think.Of course that’s supposedly why we REALLY have PPT.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I think you are being somewhat rude JMM…mockery is not a nice trait…the traders here have a much more disciplined approach to the market than you are giving them credit for..and, as for Raymond James…..a familiar soothing voice?

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        plenty of Bulls on here mock anyone with a stance that is not bullish and quite ruder than the way in which I have expressed Fiona. as far as giving them credit………the true judgement comes when I see how quickly they change their stances and how far we are down before they say not to buy. That time is yet to come so we shall see. It’s easy to be bull in a bull. makes a lot of Kool aid drinkers look quite smart. I have been a bull for much of this market but the days of being bullish for extended periods of time or believing in the bull are gone for me until we get a big wash out and when the next bull comes I’ll be long for a while again just like the beginning of this one. Bulls to me aren’t smart or disciplined at this point after its gone from 666 to 2100 plus ……if it goes higher they are just lucky at this point and frankly their delusion just hasn’t been exposed yet. It’s Russian Roulette right now and the market is being held together by glue. The new bull market calls on here are like DOW 50,000 prints on the Cover of Fortune. It ain’t happening but we shall see who is right. Raymond Merrill UBS MorgAn Goldman etc ……all those analysts are a joke as far as I am concerned

        • fionamargaret says:

          I understand JMM…just don’t attack…save those passions for more fruitful ventures..

      • phil1247 says:

        Google SEO Expert Shailen Lodhia says:
        September 30, 2016 at 4:27 pm
        Thanks T.


        i havent said anything till now but shailen has never posted anything about the market .

        ….only “thanks tony”.

        now we have another one …..

        these are probably advertisement s in disguise ..
        as you will see if you click on them

        its your site Tony.

        ….just mentioned this to see what you think of it

  24. stormchaser80 says:

    A mixed bag today. The Technicals Model was lower today, but not at a rate much different than the market. SPX Daily and Hourly look bearish, as does the McClellan. But the last hour’s action in $VIX could prove quite bullish for the market tomorrow. Need to watch futures overnight.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  25. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  26. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Ive noticed you haven’t been in the conversation in the comment section lately and that can mean only one thing , you’re day trading CL futures haha.

  27. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  28. purplember says:

    Clinton foundation hacked by Guccifer. early reports show Tarp money to bail out banks and bank had to give certain % to Clinton’s. if true, american outrage coming.

  29. Well,surveying the damage of Gold and GdX,first thing I see,is the huge volume.After many low volume selloffs…the biggest of the year(200m)comes in today.Capitulation?Yes,unless volume goes to 400m tomorrow.Where this came from is the usual suspects–with China out of the way–call her Yellen or Draghi.Maybe even Deutschebank.Very opportunistic.+Div fwiw.Didn’t hit me that bad…more irritating that I wasn’t 20% less exposed(30% from 80% earlier in the summer).No panic here.Goldfingers crossed,this was the majority of the selling.Good luck all.

  30. abchart says:

    Hello Tony,
    I think your SPX count (PI, PII, PIII undeway) is too much bull.
    – US growth is not robust.
    – The Fed will probably raise rates at the end of the year, the $ will surge, the earnings will suffer.
    – The BOJ does’t know what to do to restore inflation and growth.
    – Europe: serious problems of the banking sector. No growth. High unemployment rate.
    – There are certainly a lot of cash. Blackrock recently talk about $ 70 trillion that could enter the equity markets, but it will be to create the worst bubble in history.
    – So, I think SPX 2400/500 it is more reasonable in 2017. Before a bear market (700/800 points drop)


  31. captbara says:

    Today’s short gold play was an absolute gift wasn’t it? Already broke the channel from Jan/Feb a few days ago, and yen’s break overnight was all the confirmation you needed.

    • Will not have a rally in Gold and will have a basing of equities over next 2 weeks followed by a BIG move up. Bonds, Dollar, Gold, Oil, setting up perfectly. Bet against this alignment at your own risk. We will see a positive earnings season of perhaps 2 percent but the BIG news will be how well the future projections hold up. Rate hike in December is most likely and so is the rise in global industrial production. Watch out for what you wished for because it could just be the reason for the next big equities swoon in 2017.

      I will be waiting for the opportunity to step in with option plays soon. I do believe I stood practically alone in February declaring a huge consumer buildup and equities rally. Today there are a lot more converts but skepticism is still very high. Weakness over next 2 weeks will be a gift.

      • Lee X says:

        NIce job Gary

      • Fear trades gold/ 30yr treasuries getting killed and will so for a few months, US GDP growth picking up manufacturing new orders PMI was a cracker, US equities selloff driven by REITs, Utilities, consumer staples. Japanese equities outperforming US equities, China/Hong Kong property market kicking into overdrive for at least another 6 months. Next 6 months should be good time for equities especially Japan (fiscal sendup, improving employment), maybe Europe equities, Italian banks will get recapped by private investors. DB is a slow burn issue which may cause problems in 6-12 months. Try and catch Tony’s US C wave at the bottom.

  32. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Choppy days, waiting for the law of unintended consequences to show up 🙂

  33. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et OEW team.

    Q: Given the FTSE100 is testing all-time highs, and with OEW having major global indices poised as bullish; could the first following chart of the FTSE100 be valid under OEW theory?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Actually no.
      There are three waves up from 2009-2015

      • torehund says:

        Interesting index concerning ongoing P-3, with a little help from Brexit/currency dilution.

      • 123 abc says:

        Thank you Tony, agree with three waves up from 2009-2015.

        a. Under OEW theory, is it possible that these three waves be labelled as Primary-i(2010), Primary-ii(2011) and Primary-iii→Major-1(2015) as illustrated in the chart?

        b. Alternatively, is it possible that a Leading Diagonal is in progress since the 2009 low with four waves already complete? i.e. Primary-i(2010), Primary-ii(2011), Primary-iii(2015), Primary-iv(2016).

        c. Or, is OEW inclined with the current count of an Irregular Major-b currently in progress?

        Understand that Alistair is looking after the FTSE100 count, so any thoughts later is fine.

  34. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    Short term paths and support/resistance. See charts.

  35. SPX Bullish Gartley pattern supporting TC’s 2131 pivot:-
    X=2119.9, A=2179.99, B=2141.55, C=2175.3, D=2132.76 or the buy zone.

    This chart can be viewed on Twitter @martinthomas208

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