Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening starts October, DOW -54

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher, then lower, overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 2161 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2168 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 2157, and then tried to rally. At 10am construction spending was reported lower: -0.7% v 0.0%, ISM was reported higher: 51.5 v 49.4, and auto sales were reported lower. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2164, and then resumed its pullback. At 12:30 the SPX hit 2155, then rebounded into the close to end the day at 2161.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude gained 45 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered to 2.2% v 2.4%.

The market gapped down at the open, traded down to SPX 2155, then rebounded into the close. We now have another wave down in this choppy activity. If the market is going to rally again, then it should hold SPX 2142/45 for support. The double zigzag, noted in the weekend update, is still in play. And, it now requires a rally above SPX 2175 to complete. Short term support is at SPX 2142 and the 2131 pivot, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: choppy activity continues

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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109 Responses to Monday update

  1. H D says:

    144 is a fib, SPX made a low last Tuesday and the Tuesday the week before and the Tuesday the week before that….

  2. phil1247 says:


    2144 ext short resistance held

    2136 target hit

    thats all folks ………….see ya tomorrow

  3. kvilia says:

    So does NUGT have a bottom?

  4. mtu MTU says:

    [215pm] SPX update-
    Short term gyrations. See chart and also yesterday’s EOD charts.

  5. phil1247 says:


    23.59 target hit

    sold all DUST


    ext long failed

    retest failed
    dollar peak may be in

  6. phil1247 says:


    ext short with target 2136

    bear below 2144

    just watching

  7. H D says:

    After the 34 point rally last week it’s been all sellers. Rosh Hashanah Shake and bake, kosher style. Anybody buying the dip?

    Phil, good eyes on Gold. Nice call.

  8. Hardly any doubt that gold tests 1253 at the 200d.How long do stocks hang in there?I’m off to the casino…to hopefully make some money for the day…lol.Later.

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Gold via the GLD: breaking down and out of both the rising channel from the lows and out off the bearish wedge. Ugly chart, lower prices ahead.

  10. Jimbo says:

    $BPSPX broken 70 today. Usually quite bearish if it holds

  11. pooch77 says:

    Another ramp up into close

  12. NEWBIE says:

    Crazy Times in the World.

    The US Markets have something in common with this motorcycle that is on a cross country ride. They are both doomed.

  13. Markets are acting pretty nervous today.Could see it finishing down 200 or up 200 easily.The bots are full of adrenaline today.The roulette wheel is now open,let’s see where it stops.

  14. abchart says:

    ECB said to build tapering consensus as QE decision time is near. Possible a taper of €10 billions/month imminent. € and european bond yiels jump.

  15. If this were not the starting of a third wave, it would never be able to keep the low

  16. THE “TELL”! Gold broke down as the dollar stays in it’s upper range. The consensus NOW (60 percent) is for a rate hike by December. There are reasons for this and most here will not accept them. You can look at business spending, or lack of, and declare GDP is too weak, or you can look at the consumers response. Watch for more signs the consumer is alive and well. Holiday rally now seems more likely.

    Stated many months ago that the “boring” consolidation stage is upon us. Very hard to make money with these types of moves. I would look towards the cumulative affect of quarterly earnings and future expectations as the next catalyst for a big move. Within 2 to 3 weeks time we should have that answer.

    Still see 2250 as a decent target before year end.

  17. Ahh,I see what happened…
    Fed’s Lacker Says Rates Might Need to Rise A Lot, Case For Hike Strong

    • He’s a non voting member.I’ve read other comments elsewhere,that this dollar/gold maneuver is occurring strictly because China is closed this week. That makes for a long week for people long gold.Levels broken reminds me of last year(2015) when “someone” tried to break the gold market in an overnight selling attack.They did…temporarily.See how this plays out.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Mester was speaking overnight which seemed to influence some…was talking 10 year correlation with oil, and inflation….wanted rate rise…oil by my numbers is 58…oil is a very positive pattern…in new channel

        • Thanks Fiona.P&F on gold had it going to 1242 on its updated chart a couple weeks ago…AND GDX still to 52(since June).Looks like gold will be correct…and then a huuge bounce?Wouldn’t THAT be something?

    • fbender7 says:

      Lacker says rates should be at 1.5 already. Instead of the current .25 – .50

  18. phil1247 says:


    24.22 target hit

    took profits on DUST

    only 25% short now

    • rcun says:

      phill247 – right there with you. Took profits on DUST 10/21 calls. Now wait for the NUGT opportunity!

      • kvilia says:

        well, I nibbled at 14.9 and getting killed now. It may go down to 10 easily. My only hope it will bounce back before continuation of the downtrend.

  19. SPX – SPY: should explodes like a bottle of Cocacola in the freezer. C&H.

  20. abchart says:

    ES 30 minutes: I will be short later today.

  21. Leave it to the US markets…with China closed for the week to pull the gold sell again.Here,there is a +div as stated there would be.I m amazed equities aren’t down with PMs.Pretty surprising to see,but had given it a 70% chance.Just thought EVERYTHING would go down.Now we see if the +div kicks in or GDX gets massacred by shortsellers.No point being in GdX except for a bounce.The 20 sd sma told everything,Good luck all…

  22. kvilia says:

    I think gold daily support will break, so we may go all the way hwb – this would be a killer buy.

  23. stmro says:

    IMF just lowered US 2016 GDP forecast from 2.2% to 1.6%. It was 3.4% in January.

    In any other profession, such catastrophic failure would be met with dismissal. What exactly are economists good for?

    • purplember says:

      forecast is a carrot for stocks. today (reality) is poor but future (6 months) is tremendous growth = stocks up.

      This qtr will be first sales growth for sp500 since 2014. think about that ?

  24. Richard Glackin says:

    We have ANOTHER triangle starting at 2136ES. This one implies the market would break up from here. !?

  25. phil1247 says:

    gold and gdx implosion
    on schedule
    and progressing normally…

    as discussed last week

  26. stmro says:

    Wow FTSE is starting to look absurd. The inverse correlation between GBP and FTSE shouldnt be this strong. Speculators getting ahead of themselves.

    • stmro says:

      Ftse! Stop this madness before you hurt yourself!

      • mcgcapital says:

        7120 all time high tested. Good place for a swing short

        • stmro says:

          Please tell me you took that short🙂. Big reversal so far.

          • mcgcapital says:

            Yeah I took it 😃. Was too good a set up not to. Taken a third off at 7040 and running the rest, 6820 looks a target but may take a while to get there. Ftse tends to move between pivots really well, break of 7000 on the open (big round number and yesterday’s high) was bullish, then 7065 March 2015 high provided only a small reaction so 7100 looked likely. Definitely switched to bearish as long as 7065 and more importantly 7100-7120 hold.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Stmro – Ftse strength not really all that surprising, it is overweight very large Miners and Banks, which have been outperforming lately.

  27. cmucha68 says:

    Crude oil on its way towards 60$ the next few weeks as I see it.

  28. captbara says:

    Yen is breaking the lower TL from Jun. Bye bye gold, hello carry trade.

  29. stormchaser80 says:

    The market sold off as was the call on Friday. Today I am calling for continued selling, to the bottom of the yellow triangle on the hourly chart. This is natural resistance and I feel would make a great ending point to the decline. Price above 2164.1 negates my count and I will have failed once again!

    From there, if I am correct, expect a rebound into the 2162-2169 range. This is based on Fib ratios if my count that the first wave lower began Friday is correct.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Thanks for sharing…what I find most interesting is that he does not give a scenario if the market breaks -down- from this triangle. Please note that while I do think the market goes higher…not yet…not until we see the ‘C’ wave down to around 2085 ES. That’s about a 50% retracement of the 5 wave move up from the 1981 low in late June.

  30. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Q3 GDP estimates continue to drop,, now just 2.2%; so much for that 3%+ bounce back GDP print. As a result, earnings estimates will have to be taken down, again

    • tony caldaro says:

      probably, but Q3 ended on friday

      • mjtplayer says:

        Yes, but we have several more weeks of Q3 (Sept) data yet to come. The trend is certainly lower, Q3 was running in the mid 3% range just a month and a half ago, now we’re in the low 2%’s. If this trend continues, we might even be in the high 1%’s by the time Q3 is released.

    • So we get to do it all over again. Project q4 gdp at 3.8. and reduce every week.mwhat bothers me, is lots of talk of euro being devalued, which raises the dollar. A strong dollar, will have to have a lot of companies reduce profit unless that 3.8 gdp decides to show up once. A lot going on. Expecting one more high this week 2200-2225, then down we go. Not clear what degree the decline will be, maybe 2100, maybe 2000 maybe lower. Lots going on around the world. I know I’m not smart enough to know where it stops. But looking at 10-10 thru 10-24 as a big sell off window.

  31. kvilia says:

    This absolutely unpredictable market. Thank you, Tony for still running this site, I’d give up a long time ago🙂
    Shana tova to all who celebrates.

  32. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $OIL by

  33. jobjas says:

    CL completes wave B @ $49 ; heading down to 38 for wave C

    • guavaghaut says:

      phil1247 ..what do you think? I’m looking for extension ending at $52.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      It sure ‘looks’ like a ‘B’ wave ending at $49 but, if you take a close look, it is possible that it is a 1-2, 1-2, 3-4, 3-4, 5 ‘C’ wave. Only way to know for sure is the next wave.

  34. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    SPX gapped below the blue line and closed right under it (Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks potential bullish triangles. Other scenarios are also at play.

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