Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback, then rally, DOW +111

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 durable goods orders were reported unchanged. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 2160 close, then declined to 2152 by 11am. At 10am FED chair Yellen testified before congress: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20160928a.htm. The market then continued to work its way higher. Just past 2pm it was reported OPEC had reached a limit on Oil production. The market rallied higher. Also at 2pm FED director Sullivan: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/sullivan20160928a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2172, then closed at 2171.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds slipped 4 ticks, Crude rallied $2.00, Gold dipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +1.3%) and weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then pending home sales at 10am. Also at 10am there is a speech from FED governor Powell, and at 4pm a speech from FED chair Yellen. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered to 2.8% v 2.9%.

The market opened higher today, pulled back to SPX 2152, then rallied into the 2177 pivot range. We can now count seven rallies since the SPX 2120 low. The first five overlapped each other, and the last two have yet to do so. None of these rallies have been fully retraced. Certainly an odd pattern for a potential uptrend, since it looks more like typical corrective activity. Still can go either way. Short term support is at SPX 2152 and the 2131 pivot, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum was quite overbought at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: 80% uptrend probability still being tested

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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104 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. mtu MTU says:

    [230pm] SPX update-
    Interesting possibility (one of the scenarios) –
    If the Sep 27th low holds, today’s low may conclude a terminal bullish triangle (the 2nd green C in Chart) and thus mark the end of the pullback from the Aug high. Quite fitting on the heels of the DB news.
    If the Sep 27th low is breached but the early Sep low holds, the proposed bullish terminal triangle is then stretching in time (the 3rd green C in chart).
    See chart.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/09/market-timing-update-92916.html

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  2. kvilia says:

    Beautiful. UVXY – 16.4 bought, 19.02 sold. Looking for another entry to repeat.

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  3. mjtplayer says:

    While everyone is being distracted by Wells Fargo, Presidential debates, polls and central bank speak, DB continues to melt-down. Fresh all-time lows today….

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  4. lcd00 says:

    Does anyone know why Semiconductors index is breaking out while the rest of the market is tanking?

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  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    DB

    Ruh Ro!

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    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      listening to those morons on CNBC right now (I know I know I might as well Gartman’s news letter)

      One commentator (after TEN separate hedge funds started pulling money out)

      “It could just be quarter end rebalancing and seasonal needs of clients so lets not jump to any conclusions”

      who knows if DB is in trouble or not but that statement just goes to show you how people are in denial. Cracks me up

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  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Amazing how GDX is following SPX lately…gold not so much.I’m out of here for the day.

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