SHORT TERM: pullback, then rally, DOW +111
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 durable goods orders were reported unchanged. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 2160 close, then declined to 2152 by 11am. At 10am FED chair Yellen testified before congress: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20160928a.htm. The market then continued to work its way higher. Just past 2pm it was reported OPEC had reached a limit on Oil production. The market rallied higher. Also at 2pm FED director Sullivan: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/sullivan20160928a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2172, then closed at 2171.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds slipped 4 ticks, Crude rallied $2.00, Gold dipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +1.3%) and weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then pending home sales at 10am. Also at 10am there is a speech from FED governor Powell, and at 4pm a speech from FED chair Yellen. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered to 2.8% v 2.9%.
The market opened higher today, pulled back to SPX 2152, then rallied into the 2177 pivot range. We can now count seven rallies since the SPX 2120 low. The first five overlapped each other, and the last two have yet to do so. None of these rallies have been fully retraced. Certainly an odd pattern for a potential uptrend, since it looks more like typical corrective activity. Still can go either way. Short term support is at SPX 2152 and the 2131 pivot, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum was quite overbought at the close. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: 80% uptrend probability still being tested
LONG TERM: uptrend