SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +133
Overnight the Asian markets rebounded gaining 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%, after trading much lower. US index futures were higher overnight, started losing its gains as Germany declined, then turned negative before the open. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: 5.0% v 5.1%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2146 close, then immediately started to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2156, consumer sentiment was reported higher: 104.1 v 101.1, and the market started to pullback. At 11am the SPX hit 2147, and then turned higher again. At 11:15 FED vice chair Fisher’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20160927a.htm. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2161, then ended the day at 2160.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.00%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped $1.40, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods orders at 8:30, Congressional testimony by FED chair Yellen at 10am, then testimony by FED director Sullivan at 2pm.
The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2142, and then started to rally. Since the SPX 2120 low we have now had five overlapping rallies and not one of them has been fully retraced. This is quite an odd short term pattern. This advance can still roll over and retest that low, or take off to the upside and make new highs. Market is leaving both options open. Meanwhile the NDX, NAZ, R2K, SOX and TRAN are all in uptrends. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought after yesterday’s positive divergence. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: 80% uptrend probability getting tested
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
GOLD
extension short entry was given last nite at 1329
next target is 1317 /gcz6
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the weekly short target is 1267
then 1181
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so far the decline has been orderly
if new extensions develop
we could get an all out collapse in gold
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Fotis, going short the Alsi shortly.
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47000?I need to see some kind of pattern
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ES, Cr. to CBZ
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They gonna crash this right off the top.
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We need a GIF to visualize that …. All I got is a picture of Draghi performing electroshock therapy on an unwilling patient…
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Think about this:
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Sauid Arabia
Venezuela
Algeria
Nigeria
we are taking the word of these countries in regard to a deal?
LMAO
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JMM,if traders believed people like Fed govs were going to raise rates…they’ll go for anything.Don’t let facts get in the way of trading..
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agree
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JM are you saying Obama’s signature deal with Iran isn’t trustworthy ?
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sometimes I comment about how silly things are and people think I don’t understand price. I do. I just am commenting on how silly price is. I am not surprised by today’s move but I still think the move is moronic.
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speaking of m …
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-Cuts-Oil-Price-Target-From-50-To-43.html
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I see us near a potential short , give or take a few points
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[235pm] SPX update-
A three-wave push has sent SPX back inside the ever-narrowing blue-line res/support range. See charts.
http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/09/market-timing-update-92816.html
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What just happened?GDX just went up 3%..SPX 6 pts,Dow up 60
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OPEC agreed on a “deal” to “limit production” starting in Nov. Oil up 5.6%
They’re talking-up the market, nobody really believes the individual countries will limit anything.
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gdx target 27.30
raised stops
gdx extension short broke at 26.40
gold still looks weak
could not even reach short entry
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NO. Gold/Miners going a lot higher than 27.30. Oil cut is very bullish for Gold so let the shorts run for hill for few days 😀
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SPX +10, it’s obligatory. BOTs
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Phil CL I do believe strong posibility of breaking out here 4th test of TL coming up shortly been waiting for this one too long
http://invst.ly/2ht3u
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fotis
i have not traded oil in days
..may be getting an uptrend here
but too sloppy for me
hope you enjoy chop suey
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One man’s poison another one’s food.
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With the Fed not raising rates, Hillary “winning” the first debate and end of quarter window dressing on Friday you’d think the market would be acting more bullish. Seems we’re still stuck in the mud, awaiting some other catalyst.
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do you have your ending diagonal chart. Im liking that a lot, since this all looks corrective. would like to see 2012-2025 then drop to 2080 ish.
Thanks in advance
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2012 – 2025 ???
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2212-2225
Sorry
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The ED chart is still in play, but we need 1 more HH and preferably up to the SPY 223 area. The bottom TL has been barely hanging-on.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NKSE0u7o/
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thanks, I wasn’t sure if it was still in play, but I like it a lot. thanks for sharing
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You can argue 3 wave or 5 off the June lows in both wave 1 and 3. Plus, wave 4 hasn’t overlapped wave 1, which would be preferred in an ED pattern. It’s not perfect, but it’s still valid. Below SPY 212 and it’s busted.
QQQ’s possible ED
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8Pm5loGN/
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The market knows she didn’t win. Wait for Fri, I think there is some BoJ catalyst.
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We may well realize that (what you’re saying) and the market “knows” everything a s you’re pointing out….. However, it just so happens that the Fed IS the market. And the BOJ IS the market. And the more Trump tries to give Janet (the Fed) a hard time, the more “the market” will keep saying what it’s saying…. so it’s gonna be a long kabuki show … And everybody needs to be ready to dance to the music…..the music THEY are playing…So basically, Trump may be messing with the wrong party… That’s why you’re seeing a “clear five” waves… Otherwise “the market” wouldn’t be doing that… so congrats on your count .. and it looks like .the market is basically cheating itself.. 😉 at least today…
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Whoever is the better candidate to pull off SC3 will still need to endure a SC2. But as we all know there exists the concept of buy the rumor, sell the news, and vice versa, so in the beginning it will feel a little confusing to most people.
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Very true…deception is an important tool that “markets” use…think the markets have a new motto : by way of deception =)
And I like your Naz count..
It ‘s a bit frustrating right now that all the federal money has temporarily migrated to CL today and they’re literally starving all the Qs’ traders right now… Janet pls stop ticking us off today, OK? (thumbs down – sorry, I don’t have the emoticon for that… need to get one)
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