SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +133
Overnight the Asian markets rebounded gaining 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%, after trading much lower. US index futures were higher overnight, started losing its gains as Germany declined, then turned negative before the open. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: 5.0% v 5.1%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2146 close, then immediately started to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2156, consumer sentiment was reported higher: 104.1 v 101.1, and the market started to pullback. At 11am the SPX hit 2147, and then turned higher again. At 11:15 FED vice chair Fisher’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20160927a.htm. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2161, then ended the day at 2160.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.00%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped $1.40, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods orders at 8:30, Congressional testimony by FED chair Yellen at 10am, then testimony by FED director Sullivan at 2pm.
The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2142, and then started to rally. Since the SPX 2120 low we have now had five overlapping rallies and not one of them has been fully retraced. This is quite an odd short term pattern. This advance can still roll over and retest that low, or take off to the upside and make new highs. Market is leaving both options open. Meanwhile the NDX, NAZ, R2K, SOX and TRAN are all in uptrends. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought after yesterday’s positive divergence. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: 80% uptrend probability getting tested
LONG TERM: uptrend