Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +133

Overnight the Asian markets rebounded gaining 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%, after trading much lower. US index futures were higher overnight, started losing its gains as Germany declined, then turned negative before the open. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: 5.0% v 5.1%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2146 close, then immediately started to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2156, consumer sentiment was reported higher: 104.1 v 101.1, and the market started to pullback. At 11am the SPX hit 2147, and then turned higher again. At 11:15 FED vice chair Fisher’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20160927a.htm. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2161, then ended the day at 2160.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.00%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped $1.40, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods orders at 8:30, Congressional testimony by FED chair Yellen at 10am, then testimony by FED director Sullivan at 2pm.

The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2142, and then started to rally. Since the SPX 2120 low we have now had five overlapping rallies and not one of them has been fully retraced. This is quite an odd short term pattern. This advance can still roll over and retest that low, or take off to the upside and make new highs. Market is leaving both options open. Meanwhile the NDX, NAZ, R2K, SOX and TRAN are all in uptrends. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought after yesterday’s positive divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: 80% uptrend probability getting tested

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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124 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    extension short entry was given last nite at 1329

    next target is 1317 /gcz6

  2. micky says:

    Fotis, going short the Alsi shortly.

  3. cj32 says:

    ES, Cr. to CBZ

  4. NEWBIE says:

    They gonna crash this right off the top.

    • CB says:

      We need a GIF to visualize that …. All I got is a picture of Draghi performing electroshock therapy on an unwilling patient…

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Think about this:

    Sauid Arabia

    we are taking the word of these countries in regard to a deal?


  6. micky says:

    I see us near a potential short , give or take a few points

  7. mtu MTU says:

    [235pm] SPX update-
    A three-wave push has sent SPX back inside the ever-narrowing blue-line res/support range. See charts.

  8. What just happened?GDX just went up 3%..SPX 6 pts,Dow up 60

  9. fotis2 says:

    Phil CL I do believe strong posibility of breaking out here 4th test of TL coming up shortly been waiting for this one too long


  10. mjtplayer says:

    With the Fed not raising rates, Hillary “winning” the first debate and end of quarter window dressing on Friday you’d think the market would be acting more bullish. Seems we’re still stuck in the mud, awaiting some other catalyst.

    • do you have your ending diagonal chart. Im liking that a lot, since this all looks corrective. would like to see 2012-2025 then drop to 2080 ish.

      Thanks in advance

    • captbara says:

      The market knows she didn’t win. Wait for Fri, I think there is some BoJ catalyst.

      • CB says:

        We may well realize that (what you’re saying) and the market “knows” everything a s you’re pointing out….. However, it just so happens that the Fed IS the market. And the BOJ IS the market. And the more Trump tries to give Janet (the Fed) a hard time, the more “the market” will keep saying what it’s saying…. so it’s gonna be a long kabuki show … And everybody needs to be ready to dance to the music…..the music THEY are playing…So basically, Trump may be messing with the wrong party… That’s why you’re seeing a “clear five” waves… Otherwise “the market” wouldn’t be doing that… so congrats on your count .. and it looks like .the market is basically cheating itself.. 😉 at least today…

        • captbara says:

          Whoever is the better candidate to pull off SC3 will still need to endure a SC2. But as we all know there exists the concept of buy the rumor, sell the news, and vice versa, so in the beginning it will feel a little confusing to most people.

          • CB says:

            Very true…deception is an important tool that “markets” use…think the markets have a new motto : by way of deception =)
            And I like your Naz count..
            It ‘s a bit frustrating right now that all the federal money has temporarily migrated to CL today and they’re literally starving all the Qs’ traders right now… Janet pls stop ticking us off today, OK? (thumbs down – sorry, I don’t have the emoticon for that… need to get one)

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    13 days since the 9/12 low. Let’s get moving. 😉

  12. captbara says:

    Looks like a clear 5 off 2141, now w2.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Or wave b of B of ED I mentioned yesterday. Currently part of wave 2 where wave 1 = 2119-2180 (clear 3 IMO)

      • blackjak100 says:

        Wave B target would be 2165-2170 followed by a move down to 2135ish to complete wave 2 of ED. Just one of many possibilities, but it sure does look corrective from 2119.

  13. NEWBIE says:

    See you guys at 2100

  14. phil1247 says:


    extension shorts accelerating downwards to targets

    raised stops on DGLD

    will NOT be holding this ETN overnite …
    ..see previous post about ETNs

    • phil1247 says:

      1317 /gcz6 is target of current extension short

      coincidently..it is also the .50 support level of the daily extension long

      if this extension fails ………….well……….. you know the rest>>>>>>>

      • H D says:

        Phil, GC -$6, I picked up some +D at LOD FWIW. Plenty of shorts in. 1317 seems kinda modest to maintain bearish position? IDK, that’s only 0.3%… Maybe 1344 one more time. :mrgreen:

  15. To me.there are two scenarios.The post OPEX gold chart says we should go up shortly.Stocks would go up also.Maybe not this time.(30%)
    But if the H.O. scenario takes hold,gold would go down with stocks(also going with the stocks/gold correlation theory)(70%)
    .Fed jawboning rate hike again.Nasdaq,the key.GDX bearish under 26.75.
    Good luck all.

  16. purplember says:

    wow Yellen was speechless on tv. fed gov brainard is making donations to Hillary campaign & discuss to job with Hillary if she wins. Brainard is also voting to keep rates low. Ask Yellen if Brainard should recuse herself from voting due to conflict of interest. Yellen was stumbling all over herself with no answer.

  17. with reality lost a long time ago. With The IMF down grade of the US economy, todays draw in oil, possible govt shut down, pres election, DP big problems, Nike and Disney miss, expect this to close green, cause logic says we should be down. need bear fuel to squezze higher

  18. mtu MTU says:

    [1040am] SPX update-
    Reactions at the blue line. See charts for squiggles and tracking.

  19. stmro says:

    Well they’re really pulling a stick save on the DAX. Today can’t go any higher or it will look like a higher high and a potential inverted HnS.

  20. phil1247 says:


    still in extension shorts

    bearish below 1333 gcz6

  21. Richard Glackin says:

    So far, 61.8 retrace on what looks like wave 2 of ‘C’ down

  22. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Ndx (and others) looking a little weaker now. Wait and see which way it goes:

  23. rd3777 says:

    Bottom line is crude needs to puke here for the bears….

  24. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Ndx looks the best among the majors. Another dip probable (overbought on all the indicators/cyclic bottom beginning of next week), but Ndx could take off early -> “Clinton for President” rally?

    • locanbbs says:

      New moon this Saturday (= bottom).

      • fionamargaret says:

        Axiom were suggesting shorting Deutsche, and buying their coco bonds….if they are forced to issue more shares this would boost their bonds while the shares would fall….in theory anyways….x

      • pooch77 says:

        New moons basicall mark tops

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I agree. Cycle wise we should be down into the 30th and then up into early October before re-testing the bottom (whatever that is) in late Oct/early Nov.

        I still favour more downside over the next 3 trading days. If I’m wrong then I guess it’s up into the moon date. Need to stay below 2187 otherwise we’ll re-test the high.

        • locanbbs says:

          Wait and see if “up” or “down”. I say “down”, if only because there are also bottoms beginning of next week. It doesn’t look now as if the market wants to “jump the gun”.

    • locanbbs says:

      Rally beginning already in some markets according to BB%: $ASX, $BSE, $MXSE, $NDX, $TRAN (Airlines, RRs, FDX), $STI. Shorting too dangerous now!

      • What do you mean by BB%? I track sp500/qqq/bios by BB HITS (20 and 50). Sometimes can be bullish or bearish hitting say bottom area. Most are going up off bottom hits or just missing hits. Those hitting upper bands are riding the bands up. Looks pretty bullish.

        • locanbbs says:

          BB% (as defined by Ian Woodward) is the percentage of stocks in a market above or below BB=0.50, i.e. the midline. Bullish over 55%.

  25. CB says:

    Tomorrow is a Bradley date. Thanks Tony.

  26. With the Nasdaq on fire and a bear option and a bull option, we know which one wins. Bears are in trouble again which causes a nice short squeeze higher.

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $GOLD. http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  28. captbara says:

    Expecting big volatility tmrw with several Fed speakers throughout the day, starting at 8:45.

  29. This chart goes with the Stewart Thomson theory,I posted on yesterday’s blog.After OPEX,gold has made a bottom quickly thereafter.We’ll see.A break above 1350 would be great.GDX back above 26.65 also (which would happen if gold breaks out).

  30. kvilia says:

    Thank, Tony.
    Waiting for rd to post AMZN chart. FANG will go down with the market.

  31. 173 new highs 99 new lows–NAZ.More volatilty coming imho.Thanks Mr C.

  32. NEWBIE says:

    When a brexit like event appens again, most will be positioned long like they are now.

  33. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Mr.Caldaro D-Day for CL tmrw I think should get a break day 3 inside day

  34. captbara says:

    If NYMO holds above -35, we’ll have 1 mo long positive divergence with late Aug.

  35. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    SPX closed right under the blue line resistance (Chart 1), with two unfilled overhead gaps (Chart 2).

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