Thursday update

SHORT TERM: fourth gap up opening, DOW +99

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.9%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 252K v 260K, then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: 0.5% v 0.2%. The market gapped up at the open hitting SPX 2175. The market had closed at SPX 2163 yesterday. At 10am leading indicators were reported lower: -0.2% v 0.4%, and existing home sales were lower: 5.33M v 5.39M. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2180, and then started to pullback. The pullback lasted until 2:30 when the SPX hit 2172. Then the SPX hit 2180 again just before a 2177 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.80%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude rose 75 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open for the fourth day in a row this week. The first three were completely sold off by early afternoon. This one was not. With a post-FOMC rally underway, the NDX/NAZ have already confirmed new uptrends. Would expect the SPX/DOW to do the same shortly. Thus far from last week’s SPX 2120 low there are four rallies that all had partial retracements, with the last retracement ending at SPX 2140. This rally began at that level and has already hit SPX 2180. It appears we have four nested 1-2’s and a 3rd wave underway. Quite an unusual start to an uptrend. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2194 and the 2212 pivot. Short term momentum was extremely overbought at the high, and displays a slight negative divergence at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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89 Responses to Thursday update

  1. torehund says:

    Happy weekend to Tony and all contributors, bulls as well as bears.

  2. alexhartley1 says:

    FWIW – I think we may pop back up Monday from short term oversold into this Presidential election debate. However if Trump outperforms then I think the markets go back down into 29-30th. Then another pop into early Oct before a final flush into late Oct / early Nov. There are a few dates around these areas. I am in at a minimum the Primary B wave count up as I expect a top in 2017 before a drop into 2018.

    Then Cycle III of SC3 starts.

  3. mtu MTU says:

    [245pm] SPX update-
    This is an interesting squeeze on SPX by the blue lines (Chart 1).

  4. captbara says:

    Seasonality kicking in until Oct? 2 of 1 of 3 of 3 of 3

  5. phil1247 says:

    /es 2160 target hit

    good weekend Tony

    and all
    see ya monday

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Wait til there are more dissenters and more contradictory members at the FED… the markets are going to live that mess

  7. purplember says:

    Phil CL looks like a game changer with drop today ??

    • phil1247 says:

      typical behavior when ext long breaks

      usually ext fails…..then bounce to try to regain it …..then collapse

      in brexit you could barely see the bounce …it was just collapse

  8. Gdx 20d sma is at 26.86.Very important to hold.Good luck all.

  9. I’m reading that a group of Fed heads are going to start blubbering at noon EDT.Is this a “lets kill gold rally” confab….or what?Others are calling it a “Clown Comedy Hour”.Probably both.

  10. For those of you interested in the Ultimate buy/sell signal….Gartman today:
    ” we are now of course net long of equities on balance”.

    … which incidentally takes place just one week after Gartman went short “on balance.”

  11. rd3777 says:

    Good day for a top…..The JPN225 is not bullish IMHO

  12. Rosengren,the first Fed guy to not be able to contain himself,expressing his reasons for being hawkish.That’s like Oprah talking about how Weight Watchers REALLY works…lol(except for her).

  13. abchart says:

    Rumor: Google and Salesforce may offer to buy Twitter (CNBC)

  14. phil1247 says:


    extension long under pressure at 2163……….see 5:13 pm post

    red flags waving for long positions

  15. blackjak100 says:

    This should give everyone a chuckle…I love Seymour because he holds everyone accountable for their awful calls including Carter Worth.

  16. micky says:

    Fotis here is my short term count on the Alsi (different numbers than Top 40) The c wave may also be a w3, but so far I count 7 waves up.

  17. fotis2 says:

    Bull flag on GOLD? 3rd test on TL held weekly close above 1350=3BR on weekly

    • fotis2 says:

      Should be close above 1360 investing has a serious feed problem not the first time getting wrong prices on charts.

  18. Last one for the day,then I’m punching out and going home…lol.My persistently, irritatingly,bothersome Nasdaq H.O. triggered again.250 new highs and 99 new lows.If nothing else,it’s a good experiment.Til tomorrow.

  19. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! And I’m shocked. Did they really do that…

  20. stormchaser80 says:

    The Technicals Model continues to lead the market higher, and was positive for the first day since 9/8.

    More discussion:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  21. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, seems like we are all on the winning team 🙂
    Macd lines on the Daily turning up and hopefully the weekly lines will hock up too.
    Looks like there is more juice in the 60 min lines too dragging the former.

  22. rd3777 says:

    Looks a lot like the May 2015 top in the SPX

    • Have to say,I admire your conviction….maybe if Trump has a big night Monday,stocks fall… AND afterwards,if they see Yellen getting her suitcase packed.I’m rooting for Trump-simply because he”s not a politician–but my confidence in him beating the system,is low.

      • rd3777 says:

        Well given that the move up from the February lows is all 3’s, triangles seem to end abruptly and the waves are always pushed to extremes at top and bottoms. The only exception is usually @ ending waves where failures occur and divergences. We shall see…important time.

      • rd3777 says:

        As far as Trump…I doubt mentally Clinton will be intimidated by him, but physically she will blow a fuse, she needs to hit a home run or she’s finished. Trump will give her a spanking….

    • vivelaamo says:

      Dude it looks nothing like May 2015. Look at the 200 day moving average for a start. There was much more consolidation.

    • $SPX currently printing a “left hand” crossover on the Monthly, with 6 days to go in the month. If we finish the month with a positive histogram, that would only be the third positive cross since Jan 2009. That would be very Bullish.

  23. stmro says:

    So much for the most seasonally bearish week of the year. The FED wins again – out of shorts.

  24. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Currency (EUR/USD) leading the market (here: NDX) to a (minor?) pullback:
    2 charts (click for second one):

  25. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES by

  26. Interesting factoid…about the reason for the last 2 days rally.
    “But there’s a bigger reason for the rally: The Fed has notably scaled down expectations for a future rate hike.

    The median federal funds rate has declined to 1.1 percent by year-end 2017, a big drop from the 1.6 percent forecast in June. Their forecast for 2018 is down to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent in June.

    Yellen insisted that this downward revision would give the economy “a little more room to run,” which is Fed speak for keeping rates lower for longer.”
    –Bob Pisani
    On the downside–looks like a lock -div on the weekly SPX–unless JY overpowers it.At this point–I can’t dismiss the possibility that it means nothing,but it SHOULD be something.Good luck all.

  27. phil1247 says:


    NEW and improved B WAVE triangle

    .. i am not mr elliottwave … ……………….( Tony……please stop laughing )
    but i think we have wave A up
    a sideways B wave triangle then
    upside breakout with wave C

    anyway …even if its wrong

    the extension long target at 2176 is good as long s the extension holds 2163

    i would not even think of shorting until the extension breaks
    even though my EW count suggests wave C down is coming

  28. Thanks tony.
    Interesting , I shorted the close, I was looking for 2180 gap to be filled it did, I’m expecting a c wave decline over the the next 3 days. i feel this is fed bounce. Will see tomorrow I guess. Thanks again

    • I’m shorting at 2191.3, on that Bearish Butterfly, near enough to TC’s 2194 pivot, there is also a complimentary Bearish Shark on the DAX on the same time scale from 9-9-16…

      • I have my stop at 2185. I will keep an eye on it. Thanks, I will keep an eye on it.

      • blackjak100 says:

        what happened to the $SPX crab/cypher pattern? Harmonics never work from my experience and this won’t either. To each their own however.

        • That Potential Cypher pattern needed 2095 to work, it didn’t make it, so the trade wasn’t initiated, that’s why why we wait for pattern completion and only enter trades with strict money management.
          If you use trendlines, channels and pivots to coincide with pattern entries, your edge is significantly increased, for example Bouraq’s $ES upper red channel line aligns perfectly with the Bearish Butterfly pattern I just mentioned.
          A couple of weeks back I published an SPX Bearish Butterfly pattern with a buy at 2119, we all now know SPX bounced there for a +40 point profit.
          Nothing works 100% in trading, it’s an edge that we are all looking for, not ‘The Holy Grail’, because there ain’t one…

          • blackjak100 says:

            fair enough and yes the buy at 2119 did work. I think you meant to say SPX Bullish Butterfly however. Is there an invalidation pt for the Bearish Butterfly? At what price is the pattern invalidated?

  29. bfquant says:

    TC – Does the nesting of 1-2s, if correct, necessarily imply explosive upside?

  30. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony.

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