Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: choppy but quieter day, DOW -32

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Export (-0.4% v 0.3%)/Import (0.0% v 0.3%) prices were reported lower. The market opened at SPX 2129, ticked up to 2132, dipped to 2125, and then rallied to 2141 by 10:30. Then the market started to pullback. The pullback continued until 3:30 when the SPX hit 2120, then bounced to close at 2126.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2116 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims, retail sales, the PPI, and the NY/Philly FED all at 8:30; then Industrial production at 9:15, and finally business inventories at 10am. There is also an economic speech by POTUS candidate Trump at 11:30 that might be a market mover.

The market opened slightly higher today, bounced around a bit, then rallied to SPX 2141. After that it pulled back, took out the low of the day hitting SPX 2120, then bounced into the close. Since Monday’s gap down opening at SPX 2119 the market has rallied several times and found support during the pullbacks at 2120. The market is still showing three waves significant down from SPX 2188: 2119-2163-2120. After that a rally to SPX 2141 and a retest of 2120. If 2188-2119 was a zigzag, then 2163-2120-2141-2120 could be a flat, completing a double three. There is a 0.618 relationship between the ZZ and Flat. Other than that it may require a break of SPX 2119 before this downtrend can bottom. Short term support is at the 2116 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a potential positive divergence. Trade what is in front of you, options expiration on tap too!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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144 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. micky says:

    Failed micro 5th,1,2,-i,ii ?

  2. vivelaamo says:

    This week has been a day traders dream. Hope you all cleaned up.

  3. cyanus66 says:

    SPY just double-spiked to 213.15 – always wonder if these spikes are targets or just computer artifacts. Anyone here versed in algo-irrationality?

  4. phil1247 says:


    shorts and longs both continue to break

    as per yesterday………..
    …probable triangle forming

    thats all fffffffolks!

    • phil1247 says:


      if this sideways action
      is a B wave triangle since the initial plunge…

      that breaks downward…
      .. target would be /es 2054

      exactly where the .618 long from lows support lies

  5. mcgcapital says:

    Has anyone done any analysis on open interest strike prices and spx closes on the third Thursday of the month? Somebody on here posted this month it was at 2150. Just have a feeling that the two would be very similar as the market makers seem to always manage to get the price there

  6. Jack Sparrow says:

    time to short SP around 2150 for the d move down then go long for the e and short for the fifth of this move- use fib ratios

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Instead of OPEX pulling us down and possibly making a low tomorrow, perhaps it’s pulling us up and before the next leg down?

    Hard to say, OPEX tomorrow then the Fed meeting next Wed, too many cross currents to get a clear picture as what’s going on.

  8. micky says:

    Not out of the woods yet, this could have been an c wave of a flat B. Above 47 first should prolly cancel this scenario.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Just a blip in the continuation of Primary III. 😉

  10. Atlanta GDP revised down from 3.3 to 3.0.How it’s at 3.0,I have no idea.

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Could be a bear flag forming…

  12. phil1247 says:

    bond rally pushing up into short entry

    looking to take profits

  13. phil1247 says:

    trading tip

    we have a 4 hr bar that is taking out the highs and lows of the last 5 bars
    when that happens i will not trade until we are above or below that bar
    then you get a more sustainable directional move
    works maybe 80% of the time
    good luck .
    ..i am looking elsewhere for now

  14. H D says:

    Some symmetry, 20-41, 19-40, potential SPX abc flat if yesterday’s HWB holds R.

  15. Markets seem to be acting more bizarrely than usual today.Lousy econ numbers,dollar falls to 95–then bounces.Why?Why are interest rates rising?Supposed story is EU is refraining from promising more QE.Japan though,talking openly about it.Threat of rate increase in Sept falls after bad retail sales number,yet gold drops but stocks pop.I guess,ride Apple.

  16. phil1247 says:

    / cl
    target 43.10

  17. phil1247 says:

    bot 10 yr notes

    looking for counter trend rally here

  18. kingfrogcash says:

    wow Tony, was that a tickle or a scratch at 2,119.90, great call
    And ajaysinghi, I really appreciate your forecasts.

  19. mjtplayer says:

    The bulls are doing a good job defending the SPX 2,120 area, can they continue to hold? I say no, down we go into OPEX tomorrow.

    In other news, gold is hanging-on by a thread. Below GLD $125 could be game over.

  20. Reading the comments here not very helpful guys. Kinda like those light beer ads. Tastes great. Less filling. Bears really shouting here – some have been since Brexit. Bulls talking loudly.

    • I will try to add value but that unlikely too.

      The one thing I can say is leadership is under flux – maybe in a bad way as biotech etfs and stocks have many patterns completing which say higher- cups and handles, flags, broken channels, inverse head and shoulders, etc. Casinos also bucking the downtrend. These groups moving in a downturn – now well past the recent high in time so this is not the frothy crap stocks catching up at the end. It looks like emeging leadership for next leg and considering breakouts are already numerous, with many more setting up, it looks like the next up leg is soon. Traditional TA metrics also supportive – macd, rsi, etc. stochadtics may be getting a bit heated but they have to to get higher highs.

      As for my comments on posts here, one guy said bulls should hope for down into a turn date on Friday. Now that that has kinda happened, he is calling or hoping for a crash.

      We are all biased I guess – I admit to having been wildly bullish on bios at last breakout before Hillary tweet on epi pen. That turned out well – not!!! All breakouts in bios gave failed. Maybe again!

    • fotis2 says:

      If one has an open position reading thru comments and different views on any trading site will most probably ”rattle” one out of said position.Having said that there are quite a few posters here who have an extremely good grasp of the Market.

  21. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Ndx breaking out already – “trending day”?
    Ndx hourly futures:

  22. Fair value is -8 so s&p futes are actually plus 6.

  23. Jack Sparrow says:

    futures again in a free fall

  24. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!

    Interesting read and may result in big economic growth in EU & Japan

  25. fionamargaret says:

    from Chris Kimble……thanks.
    Charts of the Week……mmmmmm……thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony……….and everyone…

  26. kvilia says:

    Reposting on Wed update. If there is no solid bounce off of the lower trend line, SPX is going to fall real hard.

    • ajaysinghi says:

      Positional shorts from 2193-94(call given on August 15th) remain. Till we break 2110, low cant be in. However, one rise is still pending, which may take 2 days. My initial expectation was Friday to be a big down day. Going by the movement so far, Friday may be an up day now. So, new shorts need to wait for now.

  27. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Japan, Crude in solid downtrends; other markets resting on (double) bottom. Sorry, no chart tonight because Imgur seems to be down. Other posting site?

  28. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!

    the possible triple set up is here, but we now need to see follow through (to the upside) tomorrow to see it come to fruition:



  29. stormchaser80 says:

    My Technicals Model is showing negative divergence vs. the SPX, at a magnitude which continues to be wildly bearish! It’s at levels below where it was for Brexit, even though the SPX is 135 points higher right now. Bulls be warned!

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is Crude oil by

  31. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    The Dow/MID/RUT made a fresh Sept/downswing low late afternoon today (Chart 1), effectively eliminating a bullish terminal triangle scenario in SPX. There is a bullish scenario as a potential zigzag or flat is ending (Chart 2), save for a small-degree fifth wave decline (Chart 2 blue (v). There is no guarantee that this scenario will be realized, but it is worth tracking at the moment.

  32. micky says:

    Thanks Tony, if support is broken, 2106 or 2090 is my worst case for the bulls atm ,

  33. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. DOW keeps testing the support at approx. 18000 and closing above it. Looks like it may bounce a bit before heading down. But crude looks to be starting a steeper descent. Need Yoda to sort things out here. If DOW breaks the support at approx. 17970 approx. tomorrow on closing, then we may get a wild Friday. Charts at

  34. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Indian summer here in Norway, enjoying 22 degrees Celsius at a time of year when 7-10 Celsius is the norm. Maybe it will influence markets too.

  35. rd3777 says:

    Thanks Tony,
    Well todays action was very bearish to me as Crude continued to break down a long with the JPN225 and US stocks just look to be bouncing dead cat wise. I look for a 500-650 point smash lower as the market breaks key support and enters a 3rd wave down.

  36. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al.
    @2085 Pivot: Minor-c = Minor-a

  37. NEWBIE says:

    Up or down tomorrow?

  38. kvilia says:

    Thanks Tony. I am looking at September 2000 and 2008, and they are very pretty.

  39. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Magic # is 1

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