SHORT TERM: choppy but quieter day, DOW -32
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Export (-0.4% v 0.3%)/Import (0.0% v 0.3%) prices were reported lower. The market opened at SPX 2129, ticked up to 2132, dipped to 2125, and then rallied to 2141 by 10:30. Then the market started to pullback. The pullback continued until 3:30 when the SPX hit 2120, then bounced to close at 2126.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2116 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims, retail sales, the PPI, and the NY/Philly FED all at 8:30; then Industrial production at 9:15, and finally business inventories at 10am. There is also an economic speech by POTUS candidate Trump at 11:30 that might be a market mover.
The market opened slightly higher today, bounced around a bit, then rallied to SPX 2141. After that it pulled back, took out the low of the day hitting SPX 2120, then bounced into the close. Since Monday’s gap down opening at SPX 2119 the market has rallied several times and found support during the pullbacks at 2120. The market is still showing three waves significant down from SPX 2188: 2119-2163-2120. After that a rally to SPX 2141 and a retest of 2120. If 2188-2119 was a zigzag, then 2163-2120-2141-2120 could be a flat, completing a double three. There is a 0.618 relationship between the ZZ and Flat. Other than that it may require a break of SPX 2119 before this downtrend can bottom. Short term support is at the 2116 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a potential positive divergence. Trade what is in front of you, options expiration on tap too!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend