Thursday update

SHORT TERM: decline early then rebound again, DOW +18

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 263K v 261K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2171, bounced to 2174, and then headed lower. At 10am construction spending was reported flat: 0.0% v -0.6%, ISM manufacturing was reported lower: 49.4 v 52.6, and auto sales were reported lower. By 11am the SPX hit 2157, and then started to rebound. The rally continued into the afternoon and the market closed at its SPX 2171 high.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude lost $1.20, Gold gained $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Today the Q3 GDP est. was lowered: 3.2% v 3.5%. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 190K) and the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.

The market opened the day unchanged, ticked up, then dropped out of the SPX 2160-2194 trading range to 2157. Only to rally back into it, and hit SPX 2171, on a short term positive divergence. After a 200 point uptrend, this market has certainly been reluctant to establish a downtrend. Currently we can count a triple three, from SPX 2188, into today’s low: 2169-2193-2160-2183-2157. With all declines three waves in structure. Ideally, the market should tick up a bit, then decline another three waves into the OEW 2131 pivot range to complete the structure. And, the potential downtrend. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum rose past neutral off this morning’s positive divergence. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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126 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Jack Sparrow says:

    so the diagonal back in play . possible scenario wave 1 move from 2150 to 2194 (abc) then correction completed to 2157 and we just completed the ” “a of 3 in the morning which was 5 wave up from 2157 and since morning we are working on the b and then c should take us to 2200 to complete wave 3.

  2. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD extremely strong considering small move up in price. I now think correction ended at 2157 and the breakout higher occurs next week.

  3. “July’s surreal surge from 45.4 to 60.7 has been entirely erased as August’s NY ISM business conditions index plunges back to 47.5 with purchases, revernues, and expected future demand all tumbling…”
    So what happened?Can these numbers be that far off,on a month to month basis?Chicago PMI has been bizarre as well,wild swings.I knew a month ago,that the 60.7 was a fake.Btw,most of these jobs are minimum wage.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Appreciate some help here Bull Flag EUR/ZAR on weekly?

  5. Lacker,a non voting Fed gov,couldn’t restrain himself and remarked”We may need much higher rates…3.3% compared to .40% we have now”.Markets haven’t moved.Nasdaq though,seems to be trying to decide whether to go red or not.

  6. magnus1234 says:

    Nice short squeeze in the DAX that coincided with the start of the 2nd semester trading period today. Had to “wrestle” with my ego to stay long for as long as possible. The big question is now: was this the beginning of P5.3.3 or was it just the b? Dangerously close to the first IMHO.

  7. over 2185, looks like bear case is toast. so far its held, see what the afternoon brings. Have a nice weekend all

  8. Page says:

    I am very bullish on Oil, Gold, Silver and Miners. SPX will correct after this rally back to 2130-2100 then a very strong and powerful rally till Nov. election, target 2300-2250. JMO.

  9. rd3777 says:

    We are still in this supercycle triple zig-zag triangle,but it looks like it’s in the process of topping. If we close strong the market might make a new high. It looks tired though.

    • rd3777 says:

      Will the market stay up long enough to complete this pattern or will it fail….I think today is important and or next week. A weak close today would favor the bears.

    • tommyboys says:

      Don’t see it as tired at all. AD smashing new highs and everyone looking for some final top. This bull gonna run for some time to come.

      • robslob64 says:

        CNBC agrees 100% chance of a rally:
        Indicator with 100% success rate predicts huge rally for stocks
        Indicator with 100% success rate predicts huge rally for stocks

      • rd3777 says:

        Well the Fed will raise,because it must. The new XDR IMF system demands it. The IMF needs market chaos especially with a Trump presidency….the Elites need chaos to implement their new monetary system.

        • rd3777 says:

          October 1st is “D” Day….that’s when the Chinese renminbi is put into the XDR basket and the Dollar is devalued 11 pct overnight….the Fed must raise to protect against a Dollar panic.

          • rd3777 says:

            And if U think I’m crazy look @ AZO and that stock is screaming a rate hike and not a 1/4 point either….when all said and done you might see a 1 pct rise in rates to stabilize the Dollar. Remember 1987

  10. $XJY plunging to 95.89.Obviously going to fill the 95.60 gap.After that…is the real ballgame.

  11. stmro says:

    Dollar rallying – the consensus seems to be the jobs number was ok for a hike. Can’t see this rally lasting the afternoon.

  12. $XJY still dropping(96.50),looking to fill just under 96 gap.Not trusting gold yet.Or stocks.DXY picking up steam to 95.66.Good luck all.

  13. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WR1 @ 218.99 ~ MR1 @ 219.12 (Sell R?)
    GL & Enjoy the Labor Day Weekend

  14. Jack Sparrow says:

    we should take away the license of sandy dude

  15. phil1247 says:

    added uwti

    squeeze intensifies

    • phil1247 says:

      ok folks

      i am on auto pilot now

      everyone have a great holiday weekend !


      thanks for everything
      and enjoy your holiday rest time
      i think you may need it starting next week

  16. phil1247 says:

    2263 target validated

    adding more upro if extension continues to hold

  17. Goldilocks number.DXY dropped to 95.19 for 10 seconds…already back to 95.50.Fischer probably clearing his throat to announce,”These numbers will not dissuade the Fed”.Until it’s time to vote,that is.I’m sure calls are being made to send someone out to bloviate and manipulate.If gold gets too high,watch the Fedspeak.Good luck all.

  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Want to know why this is the most hated mArket? Because people don’t like stupidity and this is the dumbest market ever. never mind the miss in data let’s buy on the Fed not raising 25 basis points even though we didn’t think it was going to happen although we thought this week it might although we didn’t push down markets much because it meant things were good if they were going to raise but then bad data comes out and so that’s good because the fed won’t raise even though we didn’t think so anyway but at least the data is bad which is good cause it means something we didn’t price in isn’t going to happen.

    That’s why people hate this market….it’s dumb

    • phil1247 says:

      news and fundamentals do not matter

      only the markets reaction to the news matters

      i have no idea of what the NFP number was
      i only trade on what the market is doing ” in front of me ” credits to TC

      • fotis2 says:

        Totally agree on News when I started trading I thought Market News was everything ”know the News to play the moves” …boy was I wrong!!Price is everything and I’m convinced there is a silent minority who are viewing this Market as most Loving..

        • NEWBIE says:

          Fortis, market is completely controlled by the Fed. Many are loving the market right now, many them will be long the day of the crash.

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            People get confused when I bitch……just because price spins story doesn’t men the market is intelligent……there should be a new book called the unintelligent market


            Have a great holiday everyone (even Holly) lol

  19. phil1247 says:


    above 2177.5 breaks short …..again ….?triangle

    target 2263 above there

    fly in ointment
    ext long was nicked yest

    suggests trend weak and this is final rally

  20. phil1247 says:


    sold bonds on spike this am

    bond short has traded /znu6

  21. Watch the market pop up at the open then fizzle.

  22. phil1247 says:


    short squeeze is on !

    bought UCO

  23. pooch77 says:

    Bye bye Sept. rate increase

  24. Hi Tony, i’m davide from Italy. I’m relatively new to Elliott wave but it’s a fascinating world to me 🙂
    Please can you tell me why in the counting of the FTSE MIB weekly you have tagged the C wave with ‘a’ ‘b’ ‘c’ and not with ‘1’, ‘2’, ‘3’ and so on?
    In your vision the C wave is terminated with 15017.42?
    Thank you so much (sorry for my english)

  25. vivelaamo says:

    I think there is going to be rate increase shortly followed by a sharp fast decline in equity markets which will last maximum a week and then a parabolic move to infinity and beyond leading in to election. Have a good extended break all.

  26. fotis2 says:

    CL hourly Fib and newbie wave count.

  27. torehund says:

    Thank you Tony.
    Mentality spreading among GOVs; grab what you can get hold of while you still can. Japan to buy a stake in Rosneft and Ireland attempting to pocket Dollars from Apple.

  28. ajaysinghi says:

    Thanks Tony,

    It does appear to be an ABC-X-ABC structure. Does it mean, we may see new high on Friday to complete this wave?



    • ajaysinghi says:

      I think it was an irregular flat, followed by an ED in the C wave, which means a higher high is coming on Friday.

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        why cant it be a triple Z to come or A completing,,,B and C to come or instead of ED, the LD of A

        • ajaysinghi says:

          Future made a new high but spot didn’t. So, possibility of A is ruled out. Tripple zig-zag is possible but due to the high in future, I think thats difficult.

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            what about the ED being actually LD

            • Jack Sparrow says:

              or where have you have a higher high in futures – that be the end of the 5th wave and a truncation in spot market..(credit for this thought goes to trader joe)

              • ajaysinghi says:

                Possible but in reality, a tripple zig-zag pattern is very bullish and I have never seen tripple zig zag in A. Thats why I asked Tony a question. Seems I won’t get an answer.

            • ajaysinghi says:

              ED being LD is possible and I did consider that when we had that retracement till 2188 after a failed 5th but haven’t gone back to it after that since the pattern after that doesnt seem to be a 5th wave,

    • tony caldaro says:

      If it’s an abc-x-abc, then only ‘a’ of the second set is completed, with ‘b’ underway now.
      The next 3 wave structure down would complete it.

      • ajaysinghi says:

        Thanks Tony. Will review and revert

        Now that 2185 is achieved, we should go down hard but cant rule out one more high after that.

  29. stmro says:

    Extraordinary monetary policy isnt working so Japan’s LDP is going to reasses how GDP is calculated:!/japan-ldp-to-reassess-how-gdp-is-counted-likely-to-be-revised-higher-20160902

  30. Jack Sparrow says:

    F. Margaret – to your earlier question about oil so i think this is how its gonna play out.. its will go up in the 4th a bit and then go to 41 dollars to complete the 5th wave – that will complete the one move down (consisting of 5 waves) from 49 then the focus will shift on the opec meeting giving support to oil tilll the meeting for 3/4 dollars… Incidentally 41 dollar is also the neckline for HS..if it breaks then eventually oil goes to low 30s.

  31. Anybody afraid of any of these reports. Chicago pmi 51.5 vs 55.8. Ism 49.4 vs 52.6. Under 50 contracting. Gdp lowered to 3.2. Some on this board calling for 4.0. Yes, home sales up consumer sentiment up, but wow. Can’t honestly see how this moves over 2300. I see the upcoming pull back and then the run to new highs, 2260 ish to 2300 but after that I’m going to watch from the sidelines. Good luck all

  32. Haven’t seen a decent bearish apocalyptic comment in weeks here. Starting to bug me.

  33. Some random thoughts on the fundamentals of the short-term wave counts. Good payroll data should be bad for the US stock market from a fundamental perspective i.e. wage inflation great than CPI contracts margins and Yellen being a labour economist sees good labour data and thinks maybe a hike in the Fed’s fund rate is a good idea, this helps to kill PE multiple expansion plus increases the cost of leverage and EM USD cost of funds. Seems the market will start to price in these risks going into the FED meeting in Sept. Good luck everyone.

  34. Tony, your insight is always appreciated and if you get a chance would you post your tripple threes?

  35. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC, the move off of 2157 suggests the correction needs another leg down below 2157. ideally if the market ticks up a bit at the open to 2176-2177, a wonderful day shorting opportunity should present itself. I’d be surprised if the market hits the 2131 pivot with 50dma at 2151.

  36. cosmos77 says:

    Tony, I appreciate the very informative end of day report. It helps me to know the potential parameters so I can set my stops and hopefully have a positive outcome or limit any losses. Thanks and keep up the good work.

  37. rd3777 says:

    Tony…thanks. It looks like tomorrow will be big down if my count is correct. If it is will it bottom in the 2120-2110 range and then will it rally to make a final high @ around September 23rd to October 1?
    This looks real toppy to me……

    • rd3777 says:

      FB new high or 3rd wave down?

    • pooch77 says:

      Bradley turndate Sept 28

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I believe this right around the first presidential debate Pooch. Perhaps Trump pulls a Reagan and surprises which may worry the markets!

      • rd3777 says:

        That would suppose that the market would put in a exception to the rule,of topping in the late August early September window. The ideal analog is that we have already topped @ the August 15th window and complete wave 1 and 2 and enter a major decline by September 22 and would bottom around the election. I still think that the election is much like Brexit in psychology, but only if the polls are within +- 3 If crude rallies into October we may get the Brexit setup….but will the smart money get hooked again?

  38. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Good job. Bad for the market? Wait, that’s for tomorrow. #AugNFP

  39. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. Reluctant market indeed. Bounced back into channel support after morning doldrums. Oil broke decisively channel support and likely headed to 40.
    Details at

  40. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    Today’s low may have completed a potential (ending/leading) diagonal triangle (Chart – blue). However, the measurement is less consistent. So, price actions also introduce the possibility of a contracting diagonal triangle (Chart – gray).

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