Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback then rebound, DOW -53

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported lower: 177K v 179K. The market opened 4 points lower than yesterday’s SPX 2174 close, ticked down to 2170, then bounced to 2173 by 10am. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 51.5 v 55.8, and at 10am pending home sales were reported higher: 1.3% v 0.2%. The market then pulled back to SPX 2161 by 12:30. After that the market rebounded into a 2171 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.55, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then construction spending, auto sales, and ISM at 10am.

The market opened lower today, dropped down to SPX 2161 by midday, then rebounded for the rest of the day. While the market has just declined from SPX 2183 Monday to SPX 2161 Wednesday, it still remains in the recent 2160-2194 trading range. In fact the entire trading range for the month of August was SPX 2148 – 2194. Barely above 2%. Still waiting for a break either way. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s lows, then rebounded to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still range bound

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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119 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. micky says:

    It could be we did an abcd down, so it could be all but I think we did 5 down for an A,now B up, then C down. In any case, no matter the count, my ST system stopped me out of the remaining longs so no position right now.

  2. My guess is that the bounce at the end of the trading day today was likely just beginning of the month positioning.

  3. phil1247 says:


    bouncing at hwb support 43.13

    no sense being greedy
    out of all sco now

  4. vivelaamo says:

    This is crazy. Surely we would should have a decent sized pb by now. I’m a bull and I’m getting frustrated.

  5. Interesting development in the Nasdaq today, re: the Hindenberg Omen that someone noted. Despite being marginally positive at the moment, there are 1151:1627 advancers vs decliners. The new highs are also decreasing and new lows increasing compared to the past two days. At the moment there are 179 new highs and 100 new lows.

  6. blackjak100 says:

    If NK’s count is correct, int 2 of major 3 ended today. A green close today would be initial confirmation and an explosion higher after jobs # tomorrow would add Secondary confirmation. A new high above 2188 would add final final confirmation

    • blackjak100 says:

      It’s possible the b of Y is still on going as an expanded flat and c of Y completes after job # followed by huge reversal. Target for b of Y would be 2176-2177.

  7. Jack Sparrow says:

    why dont you have certified professionasl give free advise/opinion on cnbc….or rabbit trader has been marked out for his extra ordinary skills

  8. rd3777 says:

    It is really starting to act like a major top here. rally are sharp and fade…lower lows.

  9. stmro says:

    Annnnnd green. 2160 is a brick wall. Look how many daily long tails have formed off of this level in the last 2 months. I count 7 times where we’ve dropped to touch 2160 and then retraced more than half of the drop to end the day.

    If you’re a day trader that means you buy 2160, and conversely, flip short if it breaks and stays below for a couple of hours.

    • mcgcapital says:

      True, but we’re now forming a series of lower highs and lows, and momentum is rolling over. Suggests when it does break it will likely be down. The past two times the fed has been expected to tighten (December 2013 QE3 tapering and December 2015 first rate hike) the market has sold off into the meeting and rallied on the news. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a move towards 2100 then a rally back towards the highs once the meeting is done.

  10. Looks like +divs on S&P hourly,daily.Wish I knew how that happens–how computers figure that out–it’s not volume.Total mystery.

  11. Ouch, if your a bear. No surprise though happens all the time

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Second test of WS1 ~ Next? WPP @ 217.71 ~ WR1 @ 218.99
    GL All

  13. blackjak100 says:

    TC, downtrend confirmation at 2157 or no?

  14. blackjak100 says:

    Int 2 of major 3 to end today or tomorrow after jobs release. Maybe get a downtrend confirmation before rocketing higher. VIX backtesting its long term rising trend line at $14.50ish.

  15. chrisk44342 says:

    The rule of thumb is that if you are a newsletter publisher, you are safe, regardless if you are registered or not, as long as you use disclaimers, risk warnings, etc. If you are managing assets for your clients then that’s an entirely different story. This is all standard series 65 stuff

  16. torehund says:

    deep W-2 ongoing ? 30 USD ?

    • torehund says:

      The former is a Crude oil prediction.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tore…the pattern has us going to almost double bottom with the low…but be careful anyone….it is a manipulated market….the Saudis are not wanting to lose their share of the market so are fully pumping……..and the Japanese have agreed to store…….

  17. fionamargaret says:

    When the pattern of UWTI broke at the base, it then went into the pattern of DWTI, which suggests a price well over 120….I would be scalping each day…
    When anyone sends me a chart, that really is helpful too as I can read more into the pattern…I just do the progression of numbers (or regression)…and the pattern formed with that
    At some point DWTI will be at the stage where it will again go into UWTI and that is when we will have a play on oil up……use stops…..take nothing for granted, stuff happens……last time we went from 38 – 48
    If anyone would like what the pattern suggests on any sector or stock, ask me…..

  18. Went to make some breakfast,came back and the dollar had plunged.Why?ISM manufacturing down under 50.Raise those rates…lol.

  19. mtu MTU says:

    [1035am] SPX update-
    Short term tracking appears to be on track. See charts below and yesterday’s update for details.

  20. NEWBIE says:

    Everyone is long into the holiday weekend at the top of the market while the USA economy is in horrible shape. You cant make this stuff up.

  21. $XJY now at 96.17.Countdown is on to gap around 95.50 to 95.75.That’s the whole ballgame in my view.A reversal and rally from there is mandatory.

  22. phil1247 says:


    extensions of extensions down

    looking more and more like a 3rd wave down

    about to overlap top of wave 1

  23. stmro says:

    The BBs are STILL getting narrower. One day the market is going to stop dead in its tracks and rest at the 2180 level for all eternity.

  24. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: In P5.3.2 (P5.3.2.c?). DAX has been trading in a range since 10th of August. It is vacation times in Europe. Now that period is over and more action to follow. It has been rather easy to trade. I believe these days are over now. Target for P5.2 is 10350, 10290 or 10100.

    DAX 1h:
    DAX 1h(2):
    DAX Daily:

    • magnus1234 says:

      P5.3.2.b completed as indicated in the charts (no question marks any longer). Now P5.3.2.c.a completed. A bounce and then back to completion of p5.3.2.

  25. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Tick-Tock until the next Fed data point! 😉

  26. Jun-03-2016:22.97 to 24.08
    Apr-07-2016:20.23 to 20.52
    These are the two gaps left on GDX.Unless we get a gap up on Friday(due to a poor job #),these probably get filled.Patience required in buyingAll the upside gaps go to 30.50.I have to think,in a few weeks,we hit that again.I’m sitting at 20% until the next gaps are filled OR there’s a friendly employment number.Good luck all.

  27. blackjak100 says:

    A double three? Possible as their purpose is to move price sideways and take up time. Since they are suppose to be sideways structures, I would argue it ended today at a fib 21 days. If it moves lower, it would no longer have sideways look and give it wrong look. Since it lasted 21 days and is shallow, it fits an int 2 of major 3 IMO.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Correction…int 1 lasted 30 days and int 2 would have lasted 16 days if it ended today. No fib time ratios present.

    • chicotheman says:

      Short term count looks good. Long term count seems optimistic, but we shall see. September should be a big green bar.

    • cmucha68 says:

      From Page 12-23 only investor disclosure. Page 1-11 also not useful. So 23 pages of no help.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I find most ideas about the market really interesting…loved the old masters…and Barton Biggs. I do not do the wave method, but Tony is the best there is, so you have to respect that. He could tutor you until you had a real feel for the market, and I think you might feel a whole bunch more positive about a lot of things.I also do like RJ and always can draw something from their thoughts.
        Analyzing the formation of patterns from numbers is very successful for me…and you can work alongside me if you would like…be advised there are no waves, does not necessarily stick to fibs…but it works…or maybe you just need more feedback from folks to get you interested…..anyways, thanks for communicating your thoughts to me….x

        • cmucha68 says:

          Dear Fiona,
          I like your engagement. Keep it that way. In earlier times you posted a link to a more technical oriented web page. In recent time however you links to certain pages like Raymond James offer more a general view. I miss a strict opinion. Most provider keep it that way: “The market may go up or it may go down”. For this then they use a bunch of indicators or macro data to underline why a market could go up or down. In the end it just explains only: “We don’t know where the market is heading, but you pay for our subscription which tells you also in the future that we don’t know what’s going on”.

          • fionamargaret says:

            ….that is why tutoring is your answer….to the point where you feel master of your own destiny…

  28. phil1247 says:

    REALLY big picture

    just wanted to show that extension long support is support until it fails

    1798 was severely tested twice but never violated ( circle)

    and now look at it

    this is where gold is today….
    .extension long is hanging by a thread but still not broken
    friday should be interesting

  29. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT by

  30. stormchaser80 says:

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  31. phil1247 says:


    extension long support at 1305 /gcz6 is holding so far
    perfect bounce from .50 level monday was quickly reversed

    if the extension long fails
    head for the hills……….
    support drops to 1179

    last nite the ext long failed in /clv6
    i posted ………red flag is waving at 6:30 PM

    today we saw the results of ext long failure

  32. Ajney says:

    Day of trendlines! . Dow bounces off 18333 and channel support on monthly closing. Last weeks low was taken out in Dow but not SPX. While there may be a short term bounce, we continue to forsee a red September for indices. Gold closes month below imp. trendline. Oil is at crossroads, with breaking one channel but right at channel support in another. $40 WTIC? Details at

  33. phil1247 says:


    bigger picture
    shorts and longs have been breaking on the daily chart
    suggesting a triangle could be forming
    today we reached .50 support from aug 3 low
    and have 3 waves up so far with no overlap of the first wave yet
    we are still in extension shorts on 15 min time frame
    so until 45.29 is broken above
    we keep going down

  34. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    Month-end. The Dow and Nasdaq indexes made lower lows. A potential diagonal triangle may be developing (Chart 1) and the green line may get tested near term. Chart 2 update our ABC tracking on SPX since the 2015 high.

    • ajaysinghi says:

      Makes sense. E wave up should be today, perhaps not above 2177. Tomorrow, we should break down 2%

  35. rd3777 says:

    I guess I’ll just have to be patient as the NDX holds up the rest of the market. These triangles are a bitch. All kinds of cross currents….thanks Tony

  36. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  37. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony first CCI daily close just a hair bellow -100 puts a hammer absolutely no idea, no pattern, nada, where to from here who knows?

  38. pooch77 says:

    Looks like time correction,next leg up should be starting soon

  39. blackjak100 says:

    I really want to see a minor 4 running triangle near completion as TJ does. MACD hovering near 0, light volume, and price moving sideways taking up time supports the idea, but need to see 2185ish hit tomorrow for confidence (wave d completion).

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