Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market pulls back again, DOW -49

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were flat overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: 5.1% v 5.2%. The market opened at the high of the day, SPX 2182, 2 points above yesterday’s close, and immediately began to pullback. At 10am consumer confidence was reported higher: 101.1 v 97.3. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2173, bounced to 2177 by 12:30, then headed lower again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2170, then bounced to close at 2176.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slid 55 cents, Gold dropped $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops again to the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then pending home sales at 10am.

After Monday’s rally to SPX 2183, from Friday’s 2160 low, the market pulled back today remaining in the 2160-2194 range for yet another day. While we have been expecting a downtrend to be underway, the market has done nothing but trade within a 1.5% range for weeks. Several possible short term counts in play, but nothing worth mentioning until the range is broken one way or the other. The weekend update downtrend targets still apply while we await the outcome of this sideways activity. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to oversold after hitting overbought on yesterdays rally, then bounced. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend stuck in a trading range

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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90 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    GOLD

    in extension shorts

    target 1304 /gcz6

    that violates the extension long .618 support if hit

    immediate collapse or bounce then collapse should ensue

    looking for short entry

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  2. mtu MTU says:

    [810am] ES/NQ update-
    Corresponding potential triangles in ES and NQ. See Charts and yesterday’s EOD for details.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/08/market-timing-update-83116.html

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  3. vivelaamo says:

    Triple top on the Nikkei also near the upper BB and strong resistance. Worth a short.

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  4. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Guess what?We had a Hindenburg Omen on Nasdaq.220 new highs and 90 lows.Something to watch.Good luck all.

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    • Interesting… Thanks for the heads up!

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    • va89blog says:

      I seem to have read about a number of Hindenburg Omens the past several years. How accurate are they in predicting a sell-off? I honestly don’t know. Thanks,

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      • Page says:

        No sell off. September is always up in election year. Markets will be significantly higher by election day and NO rate hikes in Sept. either.

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      • The Hindenburg Omen is actually used for the NYSE index and it needs to be confirmed by a second one within 30 days. The accuracy has been stated as:

        From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.

        This is from Wikipedia, but I read the same exact information in a different, more credible article this morning, so it seems to be from a valid source.

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        • learnedmylesson25 says:

          True about the NYSE,but why can’t the formula be used for the NAZ as well?Just about the same amount of stocks.Anyways,I’ve seen some cause and effect with that index as well.Just thought I’d mention it.

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  5. torehund says:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/hoarding-cash-prelude-to-the-crash-burn/

    When money is stuffed at home due to negative deposit rates and the liquidity sinks in the Banks, Gov will just be printing more of it to prop up the banks. Otherwise the banks would have already had to increase rates to attract depositors.
    All this printing has diluted the value of the currencies but market hasnt responded much yet.
    When focus shifts, and currencies rapidly looses its purchasing power, closet money will all of a sudden buy stuff like never before (last escape route)…If all currencies fall simultaneously what you will see is not currency fluctuations (if they print evenly) but markets all over will go sky high. With unequal printing I am more inclined to think the Euro would suffer.
    If the trend of today isnt opposed, you may see increasing stagflation and further tumults. before worker strikes eventually win through.

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  6. chicotheman says:

    So far so good – similar to how the last rally started 8 weeks ago. Short term sentiment and indicators look good.

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  7. Interesting, comprehensive article from Fortune about all the headwinds facing stocks. Everything from high P/E, to increased borrowing costs, to interest rate hikes, to pro-worker political climate:

    http://fortune.com/2016/08/30/stock-market-worries/

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  8. phil1247 says:

    /CLV6

    in extension shorts

    bearish below ominous 4666

    next target 45.40

    eventually 14 dollars

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  9. jobjas says:

    Post close CL completes wave 4 ; next target $52

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