Monday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +108

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 personal income (0.4% v 0.2%)/spending (0.3% v 0.4%) were reported higher, and PCE prices were reported higher: 0.1% v 0.1%. The market opened 5 points above Friday’s SPX 2169 close and continued to rally. Around noon the SPX hit 2183, then it drifted for the rest of the day to close at 2180.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 18 ticks, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was flat. Medium term support rises to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 2183 by noon, then went sideways for the rest of the day. The choppiness from SPX 2188, in the second week of August, continues. Since the uptrend began at SPX 1992 in late-June there have been three significant and similar pullbacks: 35 pts. in the beginning of July, 30 pts. in the beginning August, and recently 34 pts. from the 2194 all time high. The market will need to do something more substantial that 35 pts. on the downside to get the downtrend going. Until that happens the possibility of an uptrend extension exists. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought during today’s rally. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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78 Responses to Monday update

  1. cyanus66 says:

    So, rabbit, with great respect, but NUGT after a double top having broken support at $20.57 and in free fall, first serious ext. short support at $15.84, already a 15% non-realized loss, you would consider not offering any more free advice to add lower?
    Perplexed, constructively so.

  2. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing WPP @ 217.71
    Short term technicals oversold, Bias turning Bullish.
    GL All

  3. Added 10% today GDX.Will add more as warranted.+ div on daily…maybe on weekly.Good luck all.

    • Fib retracements from Rambus.Notice the gaps.Will add at each gap,if downtrend continues.Should be some kind of rally imho.Rabbit may be right on target with Sept 2nd.I mentioned that also.No rush to get in,wait for a gap up–though I added a bit more today–Good luck all.

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    short Goldman, Boeing, Chevron, Amazon, Apple, Caterpillar, Banc of America

  5. phil1247 says:

    last one

    es 2169 target hit
    spxu stops raised

    now bounce or collapse in extension shorts ?
    anyone see a pattern in gold, es, and cl??

    Answer>>>>>the dollar is in extension longs

    have a great afternoon all !

  6. phil1247 says:


    extension long under pressure

    if it fails
    support drops to 1179 /gcz6

  7. Nasdaq looks to be trading just about where it broke out and made new ATH. Will be interesting to see if it falls through. May be a “tell’ for the rest of the market since, due to a lot of high beta stocks, Nasdaq is sometimes the “canary in the coalmine.” Also noticed that although new highs to new lows is still 2:1 the number of new lows seem to be increasing.

  8. mtu MTU says:

    [1pm] SPX update –
    Short term tracking from August Highs. See chart.

  9. captbara says:

    Bear scenarios won’t pan out very well when Nikkei is breaking through 34 ema weekly and 13/34 bands curling up.

  10. $XJY at 97.04.Getting closer to 96 gap.Below the 50d,which I thought would have to happen.Get ready….possibly the jobs number turns this around?My best guess.I’ll buy some GDX for Friday,is the plan nowLBJ (if gaps are filled).Good luck all.

  11. Jack Sparrow says:

    so the bullish scenario would suggest from 2148 we started the ED. first wave was 46 points – third wave started at 2160 and would have to be less than 46 points (lets say it would be about 40 points) this would take to 2200. the fifth wave will have to less than 40 points.. so we end this whole move around 2200

    the bearish scenario we already going down

  12. H D says:

    SPX, what a month opened 2173 and now…. Really did a number to the MA’s and indicators. Expecting more volatility with some BOT signature showing, 34 point hit to ES, rally to 10 of ATH and rolled over, Range 2,172.94 – 2,182.27, 2177 Pivot R.

    Interesting month for the DJI primary III of SC3 count, zero gain.

  13. ajaysinghi says:

    Short SPX at 2185, tgt 2135. timeframe 4 days

  14. Yesterday,DAX down–S&P up…today,DAX up 120,S&P down 6.What’s up with THAT?GDX down 2% so far.About a dollar from 25.65–the next open gap from June.RSI seems like it’s better the last couple days.Need a gap up to signify a change,I believe.Good luck all.

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    You ever notice that people generally post an article or comments or research a research report that also coincides with their position? There of course an equal number of intelligent pieces available at most times that contradict that same position. Funny how consistent that is

  16. phil1247 says:


    short traded this am

    target is at 18dsma and ext long support at 46.18

    failure there leads to oil collapse

    bearish below 47.76

  17. fotis2 says:

    Gold weekly 3BR target 1300 weekly close bellow that triggers descending close above 1366 invalidates

    • floyd drummer says:

      fiona, …..thanks for the RJ updates, …this was a particularly good one.
      and keep them coming.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Jeffery Saut admires Nobel Prize winner and founder of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) Myron Scholes, who lost in 1998 126 Billion and was responsible for a worldwide financial crisis. And now Saut displays him as a wise investor. I would not be surprised if Jeffrey Saut declares Bernie Madoff as great Trader next time. Saut is really lost it seems. Same with his analysis.

      • Myron Scholes deserves respect because he showed how to price an option, taking into account interest rates and volatility. It was unclear how to do that before the work by Black and Scholes.

        Everybody makes mistakes. There are 6 permutations of (bet big/small , lose big/some/small) and 6 permutations of (bet big/small , win big/some/small). If you leave a man with a 12-pack of different beers, he will eventually try all of them. And curse.

        When someone drinks beer there often can be collateral damage. 🙂

      • CB says:

        good one, cm: “These were all experts in investing in derivatives to make above-average returns and outperform the market….” (LTCM) .. =)
        Luckily for them, its not what you know but who you know .. .at least in the banking biz 😉

        Thanks Tony.

  18. ariez5 says:

    Anyone else see a bearish 3BR reversal in the hourly chart of SPY on Monday afternoon?

  19. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD by

  20. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al; the choppiness ought to be indicative of an impending correction…

  21. Ajney says:

    DIA bounced off the trendline it stopped its decline on Friday. 18333 is an important number. Energy date tomorrow/dayafter suggesting sellers may dominate.
    Details at

  22. rd3777 says:

    Yep,I think UR right Tony. We are still in the triangle…so up we should go. When we have 5 waves up in this wave it should be finished with this Z wave.

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