SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +108
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 personal income (0.4% v 0.2%)/spending (0.3% v 0.4%) were reported higher, and PCE prices were reported higher: 0.1% v 0.1%. The market opened 5 points above Friday’s SPX 2169 close and continued to rally. Around noon the SPX hit 2183, then it drifted for the rest of the day to close at 2180.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 18 ticks, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was flat. Medium term support rises to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, and consumer confidence at 10am.
The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 2183 by noon, then went sideways for the rest of the day. The choppiness from SPX 2188, in the second week of August, continues. Since the uptrend began at SPX 1992 in late-June there have been three significant and similar pullbacks: 35 pts. in the beginning of July, 30 pts. in the beginning August, and recently 34 pts. from the 2194 all time high. The market will need to do something more substantial that 35 pts. on the downside to get the downtrend going. Until that happens the possibility of an uptrend extension exists. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought during today’s rally. Trade what is in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped
LONG TERM: uptrend
So, rabbit, with great respect, but NUGT after a double top having broken support at $20.57 and in free fall, first serious ext. short support at $15.84, already a 15% non-realized loss, you would consider not offering any more free advice to add lower?
Perplexed, constructively so.
Thanks Tony
SPY ~ Testing WPP @ 217.71
Short term technicals oversold, Bias turning Bullish.
GL All
follow the bouncing ball =)
Added 10% today GDX.Will add more as warranted.+ div on daily…maybe on weekly.Good luck all.
Fib retracements from Rambus.Notice the gaps.Will add at each gap,if downtrend continues.Should be some kind of rally imho.Rabbit may be right on target with Sept 2nd.I mentioned that also.No rush to get in,wait for a gap up–though I added a bit more today–Good luck all.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3764393/Apple-faces-bill-billions-Irish-tax-affairs-EU-rules-company-effectively-received-state-aid.html
15BILLION to pay back
short Goldman, Boeing, Chevron, Amazon, Apple, Caterpillar, Banc of America
last one
es 2169 target hit
spxu stops raised
now bounce or collapse in extension shorts ?
anyone see a pattern in gold, es, and cl??
Answer>>>>>the dollar is in extension longs
have a great afternoon all !
GOLD
extension long under pressure
if it fails
support drops to 1179 /gcz6
1179?
1179
Well drawn Phil 🙂
I also get a possible bounce at $1220 and a more likely one at the 1.618 ext $1179, IF GC carries on falling.
Who knows? Maybe USD does!
thanks cy
Nasdaq looks to be trading just about where it broke out and made new ATH. Will be interesting to see if it falls through. May be a “tell’ for the rest of the market since, due to a lot of high beta stocks, Nasdaq is sometimes the “canary in the coalmine.” Also noticed that although new highs to new lows is still 2:1 the number of new lows seem to be increasing.
I think volatility will pick up very soon for all markets. But there are some who say it can last for 2 more months.
my guess is it heads to the 20 to 24 range minimum in Sept
Also note the SOX index has been hung up at the 161.8% extension (802) of mid 2000’s highs to 2008 low. Also Weekly SOX looks ready to turn…
Weekly SP500 also looks ready to turn down judging by stochastics, MACD, and directional indicator indicating a potential change in trend.
[1pm] SPX update –
Short term tracking from August Highs. See chart.
http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/08/market-timing-update-83016.html
Bear scenarios won’t pan out very well when Nikkei is breaking through 34 ema weekly and 13/34 bands curling up.
Why not? Maybe money will leave the US markets and move into Japan’s.
$XJY at 97.04.Getting closer to 96 gap.Below the 50d,which I thought would have to happen.Get ready….possibly the jobs number turns this around?My best guess.I’ll buy some GDX for Friday,is the plan nowLBJ (if gaps are filled).Good luck all.
so the bullish scenario would suggest from 2148 we started the ED. first wave was 46 points – third wave started at 2160 and would have to be less than 46 points (lets say it would be about 40 points) this would take to 2200. the fifth wave will have to less than 40 points.. so we end this whole move around 2200
the bearish scenario we already going down
2220
SPX, what a month opened 2173 and now…. Really did a number to the MA’s and indicators. Expecting more volatility with some BOT signature showing, 34 point hit to ES, rally to 10 of ATH and rolled over, Range 2,172.94 – 2,182.27, 2177 Pivot R.
Interesting month for the DJI primary III of SC3 count, zero gain.
SPX -10, 2177 Pivot R traded for over 30 minute this morning…. Summer break is over IMO
Short SPX at 2185, tgt 2135. timeframe 4 days
Do you have a Plan B in case the market doesn’t ever make it up to 2185?
No, but, so far, it has moved as per path i have forecasted( +- 5 points), So, hopefully, it will.
One retracement wave still pending above 2183.
Lets see.
Ideally, it should retest 2194.
Yesterday,DAX down–S&P up…today,DAX up 120,S&P down 6.What’s up with THAT?GDX down 2% so far.About a dollar from 25.65–the next open gap from June.RSI seems like it’s better the last couple days.Need a gap up to signify a change,I believe.Good luck all.
You ever notice that people generally post an article or comments or research a research report that also coincides with their position? There of course an equal number of intelligent pieces available at most times that contradict that same position. Funny how consistent that is
Agree.
Need the extra reassurence to justify a position?
si senor
I do read the bullish articles, I just don’t find them to make much sense.
….because they seem to be based more on projections than analysis.
It’s called “confirmation bias.”
I find it funny just sayin
I prefer to find articles that go against my bias to make me question the validity of it. I post bullish articles on here to balance out all the bearish articles.
/clv6
short traded this am
target is at 18dsma and ext long support at 46.18
failure there leads to oil collapse
bearish below 47.76
good luck.
both targets hit
now bounce or collapse in extension shorts?
Think oil will bounce…still think up….
fiona
you were right on vrx. i was wrong.
…thinking oil to the 50’s mc…..
…be very careful with oil here…..still possible to go higher, but….
….needs a braveheart moment….
I would think that the tropical storm forming in the Caribbean will close oil rigs and be the catalyst to spike the price?
oil is at the base of the pattern (not broken yet), so it is quite possible to turn around and go to 53…..nice holiday money if it works out….
ES Morning Update August 30th 2016 – http://reddragonleo.com/2016/08/30/es-morning-update-august-30th-2016/
Gold weekly 3BR target 1300 weekly close bellow that triggers descending close above 1366 invalidates
http://invst.ly/2bw7k
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=85265e87-5230-4c54-a7b1-b380d195b756&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
Charts and commentary from Raymond James…..absolutely great…..thanks.
Thanks Tony and everyone…..X
fiona, …..thanks for the RJ updates, …this was a particularly good one.
and keep them coming.
…well I thought it really interesting…thanks Floyd..
Jeffery Saut admires Nobel Prize winner and founder of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) Myron Scholes, who lost in 1998 126 Billion and was responsible for a worldwide financial crisis. And now Saut displays him as a wise investor. I would not be surprised if Jeffrey Saut declares Bernie Madoff as great Trader next time. Saut is really lost it seems. Same with his analysis.
https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240
😀
Myron Scholes deserves respect because he showed how to price an option, taking into account interest rates and volatility. It was unclear how to do that before the work by Black and Scholes.
Everybody makes mistakes. There are 6 permutations of (bet big/small , lose big/some/small) and 6 permutations of (bet big/small , win big/some/small). If you leave a man with a 12-pack of different beers, he will eventually try all of them. And curse.
When someone drinks beer there often can be collateral damage. 🙂
good one, cm: “These were all experts in investing in derivatives to make above-average returns and outperform the market….” (LTCM) .. =)
http://screencast.com/t/GAUA1fgj
Luckily for them, its not what you know but who you know .. .at least in the banking biz 😉
Thanks Tony.
Anyone else see a bearish 3BR reversal in the hourly chart of SPY on Monday afternoon?
There was an hourly 3BR put in at the close of the 3:30PM bar yesterday. There was also a weekly 3BR put in at the close last week.
Thanks TC.
Chart of the day is GOLD by http://www.tradingchannels.uk
Thanks Bouraq. Looks good.
Still holding NUGT?
Gold, nice bounce off that Bullish Gartley pattern last Friday, 50% retrace of the CD leg (yellow channel)
Thank you Tony et al; the choppiness ought to be indicative of an impending correction…
DIA bounced off the trendline it stopped its decline on Friday. 18333 is an important number. Energy date tomorrow/dayafter suggesting sellers may dominate.
Details at https://astroanalytics.wordpress.com
Next target 2240
http://invst.ly/2bt5e
2250-2300 by Nov. election.
exact endpoint when 5 wave in this wave completes.
Yep,I think UR right Tony. We are still in the triangle…so up we should go. When we have 5 waves up in this wave it should be finished with this Z wave.
Everyone still bullish, whew it’s gotta be that way for my shorts to play out.
The TREND is your FRIEND.
🙂
Cliche. By the time you recognize a counter trend, it will be close to completion. Choppiness at the end of August does not provide a lot of confidence.
What’s your target for shorts?
Vive, target for wave 3 down is 2120 area then small bounce for wave 4 and then wave 5 down to 2075
I think your first target is feasible. If the second one hits i reckon it will be touch it for a day at most. Good luck.