Friday update

SHORT TERM: the FED gives the market a pulse, DOW -53

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered: 1.1% v 1.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2179, rose to 2182, and then pulled back to 2173 right after FED chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160826a.htm. The market then rallied to SPX 2188 by 10:30. Also at 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 89.8 v 90.4. Right after the high of the day the market started to decline. The decline continued until 2:30 when the SPX hit 2160. Then the market rallied into the close to end the week at SPX 2169.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Yesterday: the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered to 3.4% v 3.6%.

The FED speaks and the market comes alive. After a gap up opening and rally to SPX 2188, (post JH speech), the market broke through the 2169-2194 trading range to the downside. After three weeks of a 25 point trading range, the market ranged 28 points in just one day. Now maybe we can get back to the business of a trending market. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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19 Responses to Friday update

  1. ajaysinghi says:

    SPX seems to have finished a 3 wave decline from 2194. Right from morning, the rise was suspicious, indicating that the low of 2169 was going to break but the decline was too fast. It means that things will be on accelerated path from hereon, at least, in the short run.

    I am considering the decline as a of A, b of B should revisit 2190 over the next 3 days. Ideal path should be 2180- 2170-2190

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  2. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony..CORN-CL:Study in technical similarities CL gave a weekly 3BR UP followed by a DB (shaded area) CORN is now at the same crossroad will it follow thru?Time will tell GL and enjoy the weekend guys and Fiona…
    CL
    http://invst.ly/2bcy5
    CORN
    http://invst.ly/2bcy6

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    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks for the nice charts Fotis….I think gold is in the same position as silver…hanging on by a thread…we will see…I was totally enthusiastic about PM’s, but IBB has more of my attention now and VRX……though someone must read the blog, as “they” did a real hatchet job to IBB last week…..think IBB already had their bear (and if we are really going to try for 2550), we have to rotate…..banks and transports will have to happen too…x…

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  3. I bet late day PUTS for SPX. I should have bet CALLS for GLD also. Hope to early Monday. I see both making big spike moves in different directions next week. US dollar made delayed big move and Bonds did the same. Perhaps Sandy Jadeja is right. Will know early Monday if we entered a decent corrective move right here. I was surprised over the early gains and very delayed reversal. Seasonality and last 2 week stall might tip this over next week.

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