Friday update

SHORT TERM: the FED gives the market a pulse, DOW -53

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered: 1.1% v 1.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2179, rose to 2182, and then pulled back to 2173 right after FED chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech was released: The market then rallied to SPX 2188 by 10:30. Also at 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 89.8 v 90.4. Right after the high of the day the market started to decline. The decline continued until 2:30 when the SPX hit 2160. Then the market rallied into the close to end the week at SPX 2169.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Yesterday: the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered to 3.4% v 3.6%.

The FED speaks and the market comes alive. After a gap up opening and rally to SPX 2188, (post JH speech), the market broke through the 2169-2194 trading range to the downside. After three weeks of a 25 point trading range, the market ranged 28 points in just one day. Now maybe we can get back to the business of a trending market. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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19 Responses to Friday update

  1. ajaysinghi says:

    SPX seems to have finished a 3 wave decline from 2194. Right from morning, the rise was suspicious, indicating that the low of 2169 was going to break but the decline was too fast. It means that things will be on accelerated path from hereon, at least, in the short run.

    I am considering the decline as a of A, b of B should revisit 2190 over the next 3 days. Ideal path should be 2180- 2170-2190

  2. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony..CORN-CL:Study in technical similarities CL gave a weekly 3BR UP followed by a DB (shaded area) CORN is now at the same crossroad will it follow thru?Time will tell GL and enjoy the weekend guys and Fiona…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks for the nice charts Fotis….I think gold is in the same position as silver…hanging on by a thread…we will see…I was totally enthusiastic about PM’s, but IBB has more of my attention now and VRX……though someone must read the blog, as “they” did a real hatchet job to IBB last week…..think IBB already had their bear (and if we are really going to try for 2550), we have to rotate…..banks and transports will have to happen too…x…

  3. I bet late day PUTS for SPX. I should have bet CALLS for GLD also. Hope to early Monday. I see both making big spike moves in different directions next week. US dollar made delayed big move and Bonds did the same. Perhaps Sandy Jadeja is right. Will know early Monday if we entered a decent corrective move right here. I was surprised over the early gains and very delayed reversal. Seasonality and last 2 week stall might tip this over next week.

  4. so what happens if the fed waits til winter to raise rates in a period of low oil demand? that double whammy scenario happened last winter and the stock market crashed in January to early february. my guess is the fed waits until April next year.

  5. kvilia says:

    Have a good weekend Tony. I’m quite short into next week.

  6. I try to take a look at a lot of charts.Here’s one.My take is,if we can’t get above 30 quickly–to fill some gaps–GDX heads DOWN to fill gaps.This chart shown,is extremely bearish,until gold hits 1200–the 200d.We’ll know soon.A DXY move up will give creedence to a gold drop.I’m still sitting at 10% GDX…need a big gap up move for GDX to show me something positive could be happening.Good luck all.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    With the VIX giving a stock market buy signal by closing beneath its upper BB AND the double +div on the 60min, a bounce at the minimum is coming. don’t forget holiday week next week as well which tend to be bullish. If the market fails to make a new ATH next week, than you short. My bet is the market makes a new ATH first and today flushed out some weak hands. GL and cheers!

    • captbara says:

      Agreed. If not and we get continuation, NYMO will already be below the BB with a small move lower.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Since it was an outside down day, use Ira epsteins simple trading rule. If it takes out today’s high before tues close, it was a bear trap. If not, today’s low was not the ‘low’.

  8. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. We saw the test of a lower channel in the DOW today and it held. We do see increased volatility next week. Chart at

  9. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, a good weekend to everybody.

  10. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  11. stmro says:

    Parked it right on the weekly pivot. Short now on close below 2170, target 2080, stop 2094. Timeframe, 3 weeks to September FOMC.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Summers vacation nearly over at last!

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