Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then trading range, DOW -33

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower as well. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 261K v 262K, and durable goods were reported higher: 4.4% v -4.0%. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2175 close, then immediately began to rally. By 11:30 the market had rallied to SPX 2179, but then started drifting lower again. Around 3:30 the SPX retested the 2170 low, then bounced to end the day at 2172.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +1.1%) at 8:30, consumer sentiment and FED chair Yellen much awaited Jackson Hole speech at 10am.

The market opened lower again today, hit SPX 2170, rallied to 2179, then hit 2170 again before bouncing into the close. Looking back the SPX has now spent the last 15 trading days in a 25 point range (2169-2194). Must be some sort of record. Looks like the market is awaiting a catalyst. Again not much has changed on the short term count, except that 2169/70 seems to be some sort of support and 2193/94 the resistance. Short term momentum ended the day with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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82 Responses to Thursday update

  1. captbara says:

    DXY lower channel TL held, next target 98

  2. captbara says:

    Nikkei still green, and will break morning highs. Abe is the captain now.

  3. micky says:

    System says to accumulate longs

  4. cyanus66 says:

    Today’s action -should- have succeeded in stopping out those who shorted yday in the 2170s and the day before in the 2180s, correctly predicting pattern completion in the low 2140s at least.

    Tony’s pivot at 2131 is also within +/- 2pts of the lower 1.272 fib extension of August’s hi-lo range, so I would expect that to get hit within the next few days.
    The1.618 extension lower is at 2119, which coincides exactly with the pre-Brexit June highs.

    If I may paraphrase Chris Isaak: ‘Baby-Market- did a bad bad thang’ … 😉

  5. magnus1234 says:

    Rollercoaster DAX this Friday. Maybe 5.3.2.a was set this afternoon rather than at the 22th of Aug. Now in a b to 10 700ish. Still targeting 10 100 for 5.3.2.

  6. micky says:

    If st support at 61 area holds its quite bullish,so far we made an abc from the 15th

  7. Peter Sliney says:

    This market is like Medusa. Just when you think she is dead another big rally will happen when you least expect.

  8. They liked Yellen…didn’t like Fischer.Who’s the boss?These Fed guys are still playing currency games and Forex is happy to play along.Ridiculous/Crooked stuff,for sure.

  9. torehund says:

    Gap up was a tease 🙂

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Ode To Janet

    Blah Blah Blah Blah
    Stocks Yay Rah Rah
    My mouth blah blah
    Bubble me no saw

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failure at the Double Island Top!
    GL & Good Weekend all

    • Lee X says:

      It let everyone in or out if they so chose to do so , it’s a kind market with a historically unkind month approaching

  12. ajaysinghi says:

    we may close near 2184-85 but tomorrow is a down day.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    What just happened?

  14. Dollar moving up smartly,all of a sudden.Hmmmm.

  15. vivelaamo says:

    I keep seeing savers are get screwed which may well be the case but surely people that save or a risk averse would also invest in safe dividend paying stocks and funds over the pass 8 years and would have made hugh returns? Or am I missing something?

  16. Strike TWO for Sandy Jadeja clairvoyant market predication unless we reverse right here and fall over next 3 trading days. Yellen has bolstered case for rate hike this year and slow incremental moves in 2017. 10 year BOND in same tight range for the last month. We need accelerated economic activity in order to support rising profits. Money should continue to flow into our markets.
    When the correction happens is anyone’s guess. No top seen yet.

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Many on here called today’s move up perfectly. Fair play to you all.

  18. fionamargaret says:

    53 is where oil is heading…..

  19. phil1247 says:


    in extension longs

    shorts broken

    2202 target on tap today

    hasta! enjoy !

  20. stmro says:

    Yellen hawkish and equities go up. What am i missing here?

  21. kvilia says:

    Thanks fotis and phil. I tend to think you are both correct to some extent on the the different time frames. It appears to me the silver is in downtrend but boy, 10 is not in the cards IMO. I think its doing abc after such a great run up and then will take off. As a matter of fact, I see silver making an amazing run. I also think it lags gold, so gold is the trend maker here.

  22. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Let’s cheer a crappy GDP that surprised to the downside and buy stocks because the FED isless likely to raise rates .0025!!!!! Lol


  23. phil1247 says:


    i think your silver chart has the right idea for starters
    still in extension shorts

    i still view the entire silver rally as a bear market rally

    bearish below 21.33 ……which is the extension short .618 level

    target ………..sorry PM bulls …….


  24. johnnymagicmoney says:

    The most astounding and the most absurd thing about the market is how it focuses on the FED while ignoring just about everything else. There are so many risks and data points that are all significantly superseded by jawboning meetings and speeches. The anticipation of one speech (god there’s so many) moves an entire couple weeks of marker action. The unprecedented QE, jawboning and their ignorant, arrogant, blind, flawed, and fearful approach has painted them into a corner. They wanted a wealth effect in risk asserts to solve a bubble pop and an economic cycles natural inevitably and that absurd thought process is the one thing they defend tooth and nail because after all it’s all they ever had. But in the end they will have tried to solve the I’ll effects of a bubble pop with the creation of another bubble and leave Americans and global participants around the world with another mess that their risk asset melt up never solved. Bush, Obama, Bernake, and Yellen ………..a bunch of bozos. Except for the quick steps when things were at their worst in 09 (which I give Ben an A) the four of them have put all of us in a pickle. Janet is new but I can visualize her in bed with Abe tickling each other (after making live that info not wish to visualize mind you) and giving each other tips on monetary accommodation. You want to see my stimulus baby? It’s big oh quite big Miss Janet. Cum my Abe ooooh love me long time stimulate me. After this blows up a woman’s presidency this woman will implement Abenomics part two. Hillary or Janet show no courage to do the right thing, no courage to upset anyone, will both tiptoe with every word and say anything to wiggle around the truth. America’s leaders get worse and worse.

    • Amazing, isn’t it? And, keeping rates down so long has deprived savers of 10s or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. This deprives individuals of income that could boost the economy and also prevents pension and other plans that use fixed instruments to fund them, which will cause more problems down the road. Think about it, an individual who has $100,000 saved has been deprived of about $100,000 in interest (5% [which was an average return through the 90s) yearly compounded) that would have accrued since 2000, but hasn’t because of the low interest rates. On top of that, the low interest rates have caused another housing bubble. Housing in major cities is easily overvalued by 30%, if you look at graphs showing long term trends for price appreciation. I’m a baby boomer on the cusp of Gen X and I have to say that I think my parents generation was much more sensible and responsible than mine. It seems to me that they were more likely to make decisions and do whatever was required for the collective good , not for their own gain or image or for expediency, without considering long term consequences.

  25. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony.
    worth a watch TINA..facts

  26. Anyone have an advanced copy of Yellens remarks?Well,you’re lucky,here it is:
    (With portions redacted).
    Good ____ing.I woke up today,knowing that my______ is on everyone’s mind.I’m pleased that everyone is interested in my ________.At MY age,it’s very unexpected.But now to the subject at hand,________.Or the better question,how will I get _______ _____ up,using only my mouth and this speech?
    We all know,_______ is in need of stimulus.________is not going up as quickly as I’d like.It should be at a higher level of ascent with all the _______ I’ve been doing–along with my fellow Fed governors,of course.We all take turns _______ing.Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.It’s a hard_______that we’re trying to achieve.
    With that in mind,interest rates will be ____er,for the forseeable future.
    Thank You,very much….have a good _______!!!!

  27. GDX on a 30 minute chart ran into the 20 sma at 28–knocked back.Understandable.On the daily chart,to prove this was a fake breakdown,must get over 30 in short order.Ideally,a lower price than 26.80 first,but a +div would be a good hint.Hoping for turnaround Tuesday.Good luck all.

  28. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD by

  29. chicotheman says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Looks like we might shoot for the high/2200 Friday, with the 8/9 day flat and hourly rsi div, and if so, then I would think most likely back down, lower than now next week.

  30. blackjak100 says:

    Aah still all in short?

  31. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. Oil bounced off channel support on todays energy date. Lets see if Yellen yanks the botttom out tomorrow or the fifth wave of the uptrend since August 2 starts off.
    Details at

  32. phil1247 says:

    The market opened lower again today, hit SPX 2170, rallied to 2179, then hit 2170 again before bouncing into the close. Looking back the SPX has now spent the last 15 trading days in a 25 point range (2169-2194). Must be some sort of record


    here is another record

  33. rd3777 says:

    Thank Tony, we’ll have to see if this indeed is what is going on here with a potentional bottom and a final 5th wave into late October…early November to finish the Z wave advance.

  34. aahmichael says:

    re: “Looking back the SPX has now spent the last 15 trading days in a 25 point range (2169-2194). Must be some sort of record.”

    And before that, it spent 15 out of the previous 16 days also in a 25 point range.

  35. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    Today’s candle is sandwiched between the gray line resistance and the green line support (Chart 1), understandable before Yellen’s speech tomorrow. Chart 2 tracks the squiggles from the recent high.

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