Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy day, DOW -23

Yesterday FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech: Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were choppy overnight and the market opened at SPX 2178, 6 points below Friday’s close. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2176, then the choppy activity began. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2185, 2177 by 11:30, 2185 again by 12:30, 2178 by 1:30, then ended the day at 2183.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude dropped $1.70, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow: the new home sales at 10am.

The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2176, bounced to 2185, then remained in that range for the rest of the day. With the narrow trading range nothing has changed with the short term count. It still looks like a medium term high at SPX 2194, or an ongoing ending diagonal underway for the medium term high. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day where it started, at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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104 Responses to Monday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    sold all UPRO

    this slow bleed after extension long failure is not a positive

    • phil1247 says:

      ? was that a B wave pop to new es high

      and now we are starting C wave down?

      bearish below 2189.5

      no position

  2. phil1247 says:


    silver extension long failed miserably

    support drops to 16.64

    collapse in silver cant be good for gold or GDX

  3. ajaysinghi says:

    spx made a high of 2193 against tgt of 2191. time to short!

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      futures have made higher high…the count is not complete if you are looking mid term now…if you are looking day trading that is another story..

      you should alway look at futures to validate your cash count

  4. Boring post breakout moves these last 4 to 6 weeks, as I expected. Dollar holding at 94 base, Oil at 40 base, and GOLD stuck at upper range. The housing data once again surprised on upside as manufacturing continues to expand at a slow but steady pace. FED should spook the market ONLY with a strong outline for rate hikes in immediate future. Their credibility will be completely gone if they don’t make a strong pronouncement.

    Domestic health is not in question, but accelerated profits are. Next phase, as I spelled out a long while ago, should be profit shortfalls and a deep corrective move in 2017. If we see both the earnings and economy fall than I question if this is wave 3 or 5. Till proven otherwise we are in 3. Important once again to look at fundamental data going forward to determine which phase we are in.

    If the next bear cycle does not include equally bad economic data we can assume an adjustment to valuations is the only option, and wave 4 of 5 commencing.

    Testing the GURU’s timing for next 3 crash scenarios soon. August 26-30 is first data presented. Right after the FED’s announcement? I find it convenient that he picked such an auspicious date. In that time frame, given the long and steady breakout move odds do favor some sort of drop.

    I find it interesting that no one seemed to mention the latest housing numbers. Perhaps I missed the posts.

  5. mtu MTU says:

    [205pm] SPX update –
    ES made an ATH but SPX cash is still fraction away. The potential bullish triangle we discussed yesterday won the day over the potential bearish triangle (Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks the top two scenarios at moment(a) the gray EDT (b) an extension of a small-degree 5th wave (red C, blue 5, green 3).
    We observed in August High (8/19/16) that “If the rally continues next week without breaking 2168.5 first, a potential EDT (Chart 1, 2nd red C) is in play. Beyond 2214.73, the latest small-degree 5th wave from 2147.58 is subdividing higher.”
    Here the market is.

  6. phil1247 says:


    ext long nicked

    enough warning for me to take profits on 1/2 UPRO

  7. big rebound in wti today any thoughts

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      statement by iran – supported by a wave structure for bears this is 2, for bulls B

    • phil1247 says:

      bounce off daily extension long

    • reddragonleo says:

      Hmmm… we’ll Rabbit, you might be on to something if information about silver etf’s having their highest daily inflow yesterday since the beginning of July is correct.

    • reddragonleo says:

      Here’s the link about it from the wall street journal

      Either that’s dumb money all buying up gold and silver or smart money that knows something is coming, like what you are suggesting about China backing the Yuan with Silver. I don’t know if that’s true or not and I doubt if anyone but true insiders know about that. Maybe your information came from one?

      As for the SPX… if we continue to grind higher I’d think they are making a run for an old FP I have from last year (posted in my chatroom) that shows a high of 230 on the SPY. Clearly these FP’s are coded messages for the insiders to know the highs and lows but unfortunately I can’t read the code to know the “when” part, meaning the exact day that it’s scheduled to hit.

      The FP’s I had from a month ago on Apple showing several 109 and change prints back when it was in the mid 90’s didn’t seem believable back then but Apple did finally hit those FP’s, pierce through a little (very common) and that seems to have mark the high in it for now or at least a pause point.

  8. H D says:

    CL, widowmaker. Early August had a quick 3 day ~$2 buck hit, some symmetry w this weeks ~$2 buck hit.

    • phil1247 says:


      i have just been watching cl since i took profits at 48.89 target

      now we are getting some clues where we are

      • phil1247 says:

        guess you were on vacation
        as i didnt see any replies to my posts to you last week

        • H D says:

          Hey Phil, missed your post last week. Honestly, I don’t like the product and am bummed SPX is so bad I’ve had to look at oil more. I’ve been lucky a few times but SPX is still more consistent. Was SPX +10 at the HOD? I did put a TL under the 2 August lows for potential 2-4. An impulse to HH would help the pattern in oil IMO

  9. Mr C…seemed like there were a lot of -divs on many of the equity charts over the weekend…where did they go? (Or was I seeing things).Still one on Dow weekly–I think…lol.

  10. phil1247 says:

    here is what /ES looks like now

    bullish above 2187

    until extension long fails we keep going up

    just like when /cl extension long failed ….bottom dropped out

  11. vivelaamo says:

    As a perm bull I feel uneasy shorting from here but there has to be a scalp in the RUT from here. Look at the negative divergence plus the last 3 times the daily candle has touched the upper BB it has normally pulled back.

  12. captbara says:

    Bulls baiting bears with all these 5 wave like patterns and ED setups.

  13. phil1247 says:

    new extension long looking good so far

    bullish above 2187

    looking to add more UPRO

  14. stmro says:

    Whenever the bears push the tape down, that move gets reversed instantly. Whenever the bulls push the tape up, they camp at that level and create a new level of support.

    If we stay at this level for the next hour and don’t reverse, we’ll be getting to 2200 and above very very quickly.

  15. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing WR1 @ 219.30 ~ Next? WR2 @ 219.89
    Remain above MR1 @ 217.91 ~ MR2 @ 220.38
    GL All

  16. phil1247 says:

    2189 target about to be hit

    then we either go thru and start extensions
    or pull back for next traditional measured move

    didnt mention it yest but shorts and longs were breaking

    suggesting triangle

    from the low wed was it wave a ……….
    then triangle wave b
    and now wave c post triangle thrust?

  17. robslob64 says:

    The beginning’s of a possible merger between our Central Bank and Government (aka Congress owns the printing presses?)

    Former Fed Staffer, Activists Detail Plan to Overhaul Central Bank

  18. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Ndx breaks out of downtrend channel as first of major indicies. Retest of breakout before advance? –
    Ndx (futures hourly) –

    • locanbbs says:

      If it retested, it could cause overlapping. Thus another retest is not probable, or it was just a headfake. This is the last day of the short-term cycle bottoms and the next week or so is free (next major bottom middle of Sept.), begin of rally probably imminent.

    • locanbbs says:

      Sorry, Rut was the first. All major U.S. indicies have now broken their down-channels and are heading up. (Yesterday afternoon.)

  19. stmro says:

    The inability to hold a sell off over the past 3 days is causing a reactionary move higher. Now its the bulls turn to see if they can hold a rally by the close – if they can, i expect higher highs and 2200 becomes almost a certainty this week.

  20. micky says:

    allrighty, futures braking out.

    We’ve had two fakeouts,one to the downside that started the whole move up…and one to the upside that after two days,sold off.Looks like #3 is coming.A fake breakdown should be known in a couple days.Be patient….Good luck.

    • cmucha68 says:

      A lot of text and bla bla bla from Raymond James as usual. But in short they say if S&P moves above 2194 all short bets are off and if it breaks 2175 more downside is possible. But which way it goes they don’t know. So nothing new in the West and not useful either.

  22. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Folks are digging the CL trade , the secret is out😉

  23. ariez5 says:

    In 5 days we are only 0.5% under the SPX “high.” I don’t think markets usually hang around for this long at a top – meaning, we have another spike higher to go.

  24. cosmos77 says:

    Thanks Tony and all. Short-term most counts are down. Medium-term all counts are up. Long- term 50-50 up or down. Lots to consider when taking a position, but most importantly, honor those stops.

  25. Ajney says:

    We have a major energy date on August 25 after last weeks August 17,19 major date. August 1 was the last major energy date. Severals trends have started topping last week in equity, oil, and acceleration in selling has started in silver and gold since last week.
    We now expect a bounce till Wedneday in equity and selloff thereoff.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD by

  27. ajaysinghi says:

    Before end of august we should see 2140

    • Page says:

      Great call. We need more calls like these. Are you going to be around on Aug 31st?

    • Great call Ajay.
      No chart, no facts, no technical indicators. Just opinion. This is exactly why TC suspended the blog comments a month ago.

      • ajaysinghi says:

        counts were presented with the reasoning the day i had called for a potential top at 2193-95 area.

        If you have any question, please ask. Don’t make arbitary statements.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I find it amusing that people post moves as facts as if waves can never be wrong. I do however agree we may see 2140 before end of August. It will be a very good place to go long.

    • chicotheman says:

      Ajay, I know you have made some good calls. I believe you are looking for an end to the bull in the low 2200s in a month or so. What is your count if I may ask?

      I agree in the short run. Possibly quicker, possibly shallower. Based on recent action.

      • ajaysinghi says:

        We are probably in P4( For the purpose of this analysis, it doesn’t even matter if its P4 or not).

        what matters is the structure from 1810. its an abc. So, the low of 1800 has to break. No two ways about it.

        The rise from 1810 is a classic expanded or irregular flat. B(A) camw within striking distance of the previous impulse high and retraced around 42% in B(B) and now B(C) is going on.

        c1. 1990-2110 took only 4 days.

        c2 2110-2076 was a zig-zag.

        c3. 2076-2195 was a big dampener. It took the maximum time allowed for c3 and couldn’t even do the minimum requirement of 3=1.

        So, at this point, C3 is either over or we are in some sort of ed in the 5th of 3rd. In either case, we are looking at good retracement over the next 2 months.

        Since wave 2 was a simple zigzag, wave 4 will either be a triangle or irregular(expanded flat). Based upon my nifty counts, probability of expanded flat is higher.

        Notice that wave 2 was only 35 points, which means that wave 4 can’t be more than 105 points. So, in any case, we cant go below 2090 this year as one wave is still pending after this, which will be extended as 3rd was not extended.

        Hope this helps. Feel free to ask questions.

        • chicotheman says:

          Thank you, the details are much appreciated.

          If C2 was only 2 days, why are you thinking 2 months for C4? If I am understanding.

          • ajaysinghi says:

            good question. will study and revert

          • ajaysinghi says:

            Wave 4 has no relationship with wave 2 as far as time is concerned. Wave 1 was around 33% of wave 1 in terms of time and price. wave 3 has taken almost 1.5 months. From my experience, wave 4 will take longer but not more than 4 months.

            i suspect it will take at least as long as wave 3, i.e. minimum 28 trading days. If we do make an expanded flat, it may take more than a month.

  28. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony! CL longer term trend up looking for a possible bounce shaded area daily CCI drop bellow -100 and close above 0 would be nice too lets see.GL

  29. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

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