Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open choppy day, DOW -45

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 7 points below yesterday’s SPX 2187 close. In the first few minutes the market dropped to SPX 2175, then began to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2185, then dipped to close at 2184.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots.

The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2175, then rebounded for the rest of the day. After the new high on Monday at SPX 2194 the market has been choppy all week. With negative divergences on the daily RSI/MACD, and the weekly RSI quite overbought, it still looks like that was the uptrend high from SPX 1992 low in June. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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38 Responses to Friday update

  1. bud67 says:

    One, might wish to consider this question.
    Does the trend/decline, in crude oil. Determine
    the SP500 price pattern? If so. If, crude oil is
    going to say $10. Where, do you think the SP500
    will be?

  2. torehund says:

    …philosophy of winning and or loosing. Humbling thoughts for us the stock-traders, and other smart folks 🙂

    • bud67 says:

      most everyone, has an opinion.
      the quality of that opinion, is
      the question. as for Trump vs Clinton.
      Quite clear to me, how that will end.

  3. Jack Sparrow says:

    More cases of zika….

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..yes Jack….as soon as I heard that I thought of you….did you buy XON…

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        just a little bit. will built my position over few weeks…this is a home run or a bust…

        as i told you day to day trading is not my cup of tea (i have realized that now thanks to my luck) ,,,,I will share my analysis of vrx with you over the weekend as you are in it now…;) (btw only three times in last six months i have held VRX overnight and each time there was bad news before the market opened the next day…talk about my luck…

        • fionamargaret says:

          ..there was bad news two days ago….the bonds are not reflective of the poor stock price, and the price pattern is in the forties…..maybe someone will make an offer to buy..

      • bud67 says:

        to early to go long, imo….

  4. stmro says:

    Today reminded me of why i hate OPEX.

  5. bud67 says:

    Tony…have a question for ya.

    What would the likely effect ont he SP500,
    should crude oil late this year go to $10, or lower?

  6. pooch77 says:

    Bears are weak,maybe they show up in Sept

  7. torehund says:

    Good weekend all.

  8. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, a great week of superb OEW updates.

  9. Fed hike in September unlikely due to US money market changes impacting world USD liquidity problems( see Japanese basis swap margin blowout) plus Yellen won’t want to give Trump any more support via tightening monetary conditions, equity market will be nervous going into the meeting. Bond market is working out a hike unlikely so long dated treasuries should selloff.

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony – this very boring market continues to drag on, going on almost 6 weeks now of very little movement and even less volume

    • bud67 says:

      careful of what you wish for. crude oil
      is heading for a major price low, once
      again. still might be hard times, for the

  11. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony nice weekend to all found this very interesting wish them best of luck..'s-'flash-boys'-exchange-goes-live,-aims-to-disrupt-market-421363

  12. Ajney says:

    Interesting price action today. We expect vacillations to continue Monday before settling for a 2-3 trend. For, bond and metals Monday also looks like an important day. Interesting similarities in TLT and metal charts. Wonder whats happening there!

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