Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then trendless day, DOW +24

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 262K v 266K, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 2.0% v -2.9%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2182 close, dipped to 2180 in the opening minutes, then rose to 2186 by 11am. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher: 0.4% v 0.3%. Then after a pullback to SPX 2180 again by 12:30 the market rallied to 2187 by the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose $1.35, Gold gained $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow is option expiration Friday.

The market opened higher today, pulled back, and then went into a 7 point trading range for the day. While today did make a higher high than yesterday, the rally from yesterday’s SPX 2169 low looks choppy. Continue to favor the potential for an uptrend high at SPX 2194, although the Minor 1 – 2 posted has not been totally discounted yet. Thursday or Friday of an options expiration often provides a big move in one direction or another. No move today so it could occur tomorrow. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a potential negative divergence. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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104 Responses to Thursday update

  1. micky says:

    Still a scalpers market until its not

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    not that anyone cares lol but I’m going to cash and staying there until there is a big price drop. Might even wait for a massive price reset and if I have to stay there for a year until it happens so be it. I have no clue where this is going. I don’t underestimate the stupidity anymore and the risk taking and the manipulation and the distortions. I don’t even know how you measure the distortions anymore. When things like Spanish 10 year paper are under 1% I throw my hands up and say WTF. The rotation from sector to sector from stock to stock from asset class to asset class is too quick for my liking and frankly I don’t trust any move anymore. You see a support level broken and you make an educated decision and algorithims kick in that I have no way of calculating or seeing or anything. For me there needs to be a washout for the investing climate to be safe again. This is plain arse dumb up here. Good luck everyone. I’m out

    • bud67 says:

      Agree, fully with your view as stated in OEW 8/19.
      I have a different approach, something you may
      wish to formulate for your own needs.
      Point – agree with your view, just need to formulate
      your own plan, or become an investor at major
      turning points.

      • bud67 says:

        Washout ??? Maybe when crude oil goes below $26, and
        lower – the SP – may respond much differently. Yes, I am
        working the crude oil investment. Major price low, estimate
        is Sep-Dec 2016….for crude oil low….a major Buy though
        once it completes the wave pattern….eom

  3. Last year,the week before Jackson Hole,GDX sold off into the end of August to about 13.25(I remember that),then…Sept and to the middle of October,rose over $3 to 16+(I remember that too).Seasonally,the most bullish time for gold-POST JACKSON HOLE.History hopefully repeats.Good luck all.

  4. bud67 says:

    VRX….an amazing price decline. Oversold, sure.
    But, still way above the low, approx 7. I would need
    to see more time flow, before I would even speculate
    on these shares. Keep in mind, the price low was
    near $8-9 in late 2008…bottom line, speculative
    and are you ready to buy, but hold for an unknown
    period of time…this one’s not for me. Better investments
    out there. IMO.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tell me about VRX waves……are they good…

      • ajaysinghi says:

        Hi Fiona,

        Can you please post the details of the guy who has given spx tgt 4500?



        • fionamargaret says:

          Ajay, I think you are referring to what Johnny (below) said in his answer to Raymond James.
          When the governments around the world realize they have to start building, employing etc to get growth growing, higher wages and not part-time jobs, we could have an enormous global growth story….and 4500 is in the picture…
          Have a good weekend…x

      • bud67 says:

        Sorry, I have no further view
        re. VRX. But, the fundamentals
        may be more key. Why the huge
        price decline, in the 1st place.
        The answer, to that decline. For me.
        I more important….that’s all I can add.

      • bud67 says:

        Very sorry, FIona. Not following
        VRX closely enough to talk about it.

    • SPYtrader says:

      I may put in an order for shares around $26
      bud, Amazon was $35 dollars in late 2008. Everything was cheap.

      • bud67 says:

        Understand, you could right.
        But, my take is your going to be a tad
        “early”…so, I would be looking for
        a low (trading low).– below 24.22.
        likely on the 20th….take care…

        • bud67 says:

          But — my main focus is on crude oil.
          Looking for a record low, in 4th qtr.
          Time for that cross country drive….
          I have been planning…

      • bud67 says:

        I am not much help, but.
        I am fairly good with the
        crude oil market, and $WTIC,
        and USO/OIL…all atractive for
        a very very late 2016, or early 2017

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      I know you appreciate this Saut guy Fiona but in May of 15 he put out a piece saying the S&P would go to 4500 in 9 years. First of the timing of the piece couldn’t have been worse but if you do the math it essentially means that there will be no price reset over the next decade. Without a price reset that annualizes about an 8% annual return. The next bear will make that number impossible. He has had some good calls but lets call a spade a spade the wire house firms are pretty much all bulls. Nothing the chief strategist guys say can be taken seriously no offense.

      • aahmichael says:

        You’re correct, Johnny. In this country alone, the wirehouses employ more than 100,000 financial advisors, and they require those FAs to always have their clients in the market. They don’t allow those FAs to time the market. They also require the FAs to adhere to specific limitations in regards to the allocations they use. These firms do this, not because they’re concerned about their clients making money and preserving money, rather, they do it to protect themselves from customer complaints and lawsuits. As long as everyone in that industry does the same thing, then the firms are protected.

      • John Hussman says the S & P 500 will yield 0-2% for the next 10 years if there is no reset. His latest blog post “The decade of zero and its chaotic unwinding is fascinating, read it here:

    • cloudblu says:

      Fiona, thanks for this. I read his call of the week every Monday.

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ LH & LL, Still below the shooting star gap.
    Janet Yellen would say, “Umm, I would like to see more data.” 🙂
    GL & Good Weekend all

  6. ajaysinghi says:

    It seems there was no Ed in 3rd. Top already done at 2195.

  7. Peter Sliney says:

    If recent history is any guide we should ramp again very soon. If not this could be a legitimate break down that could last at least a few hours. 🙂

  8. micky says:

    So far 2175 looking like a c wave down of an irregular flat and today could be 5 up to 83, meaning new highs as long as 2175 holds

  9. torehund says:

    gap closed on Btk, could be Time 🙂

  10. phil1247 says:


    Re widow maker /CL

    looks like i didnt miss anything by selling at 48.87 yesterday
    now below there trying to hold extension long

    if that fails look for swoosh down 1 dollar from here for next support

  11. Peter Sliney says:

    I think these morning drops are more about shaking out weak handed bulls to create some selling then the heavy handed buyers come in.

  12. locanbbs says:

    When’s the “witching hour”?

  13. fionamargaret says:

    The upper band for CL was 50/55….we should now think it is more likely to go to 60….40/41-60

  14. mtu MTU says:

    [945am] SPX update- squiggles and tracking counts. see charts

  15. You look at the DXY daily chart and to me,it looks like RSI and MACD confirm this drop.No +div anywhere to be seen.But there was no +div in May,just oversold,as it is now.Late July there WAS a +div.So m a y b e the rally this morning is just a bounce from oversold .Sitting tight until gold gets over 1360.Good luck all.

  16. re.. oil /CL this weekly drawing has the blue channel upper tl at 60.00 area and the lower tl at 19.00 area…(please note when i copy and past charts sometimes the price scale becomes distorted and indicates different than the actual chart….that why i indicate the price level for the trend lines)

  17. Spx weekly chart i posted yesterday…some were concerned as it showed an invalid trend line…actually they were channels that i deleted the lower tl for sake of clarity….my bad. Here is the chart with channels ….seems valid to me? gl

  18. Here they go again…Williams and Co.(of the lyin’ Fed),trying the same strategy.They don’t like the DXY under the 50d and gold thinking about breaking out…lol.It’ll be a legit bull in gold,when they ignore these clowns over threats of ONE rate increase.

  19. bud67 says:

    Not really comfortable, being a Bull, right now on SP500.

  20. kvilia says:

    Thanks Tony. Guys, Im on short vacation part of next week, sure will appreciate few more dull days 🙂

  21. fionamargaret says:
    Thanks Raymond James.

    Thanks Dougie Kass

    Carl Futia suggests 2152……Joanne Klein suggests 2130……..

    Thanks Tony and everyone…..x

  22. Geez, according to Factset approximately 2/3 of companies have already issued negative guidance for Q3. Anyone remember back when a company issued negative guidance or missed earnings estimates the price plunged 20-30%? Now the price goes up.:

    • Earnings Guidance: For Q3 2016, 62 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 28 S&P 500\companies have issued positive EPS guidance.

  23. Until the DXY can stop having the gigantic reversals I’ve seen,when its gone below its 50d for a couple or 3 days,I’m totally suspicious–especially with the $XJY at 100.Whether the Japanese CB intervenes or some other method,I’m not smoking a cigar at this point–with ANY of this.Reminds me of the movie “Jaws”.Just when you thought it was safe to sell the dollar…

  24. rd3777 says:

    I haven’t looked at the JPN225 for a while and decided to give it a look and noticed something that doesn’t happen very often. The JPN225 looks to have formed a perfect 3 peaks and a domed house. I don’t know if any of these have ever failed,but this one if a true 3P & DH formation calls for much lower prices below 8,000 over the next 2 years or more.
    There is a possibility that the average rallies up to about 17,800 in the next 2 weeks. It could fail to reach the top of wave A though….just a massive top that looks to be biding time…

  25. stmro says:

    Think we get something a bit more decisive to the downside tomorrow through early next week. Dollar is not looking happy and the only thing holding equities up right now is oil.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #WHEAT by

  27. vivelaamo says:

    I’m still favouring choppy consolidation for several weeks with slight higher highs before the next big move is decided. However if history is to repeat itself the longer this goes on the increased chances we could see a big fall. Maybe 2017?

  28. captbara says:

    The USD looks like burnt toast. So should we be expecting no rate hike ever and oil to $70 after next week?

    I see only 1 bullish count on it left but it needs to reverse course here.

  29. jobjas says:

    crude ready for wave 4 correction – (spx should follow)

  30. Posting the spx weekly chart again this time showing a yellow channel which took five attempts over 13 years to break through. Note after the 1st attempt there was approx 200 point drop with a reversal….then the 2nd attempt resulted in a 750 point drop…..the 3rd failed and dropped 220 points with a reversal and the 4th attempt failed and fell about 900 points….then the 5th broke through… in 2015 we tested the green tl for the 1st time at 2134 for nearly 5 mos then fell 320 points approx.. reversed and tested the tl again…. like in the past….what will happen this time? Yes it could break through but if price acts anything like the past then no…. and down we go big. Maybe something is different this time. Any opinions as to why it’s different this time? I’m ok with it either way….

    • Some bloggers here think that because the CBs are buying US stocks and there is nowhere else to go for capital appreciation that the US stock market will not fall. Some are also considering that the break through 2132 was the start of a new bull market. So, in essence, they do think “it’s different this time” for those reasons.

    • jhjoyner says:

      2000/2007 vs 2016 is very different. Look at the 50/200 DMA for all 3 years and you will see the 50 DMA crossed below the 200 DMA in 2000/2007 and never crossed above it again. In 2016 the 50 DMA crossed above the 200 DMA in late April/early May and has not looked back.
      Big difference!

    • virginia avenue says:

      nervousness about interest rates has ceased compared to 2015….there’s complacency now due to Dow 30’s & other high yielders continuing to prop up markets….if oil continues to rise; “irrational exuberance” could cause another leg up…but then again, September is usually the worst month of the year for stocks.

  31. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. Based on our studies, today’s price movements, and that there is a major energy date tomorrow, we would expect a down day, maybe even a gap down opening. Bulls would need to be resolute tomorrow and preserve the August 2 swing low to have a chance of jumping on the emerging trend next week. After tomorrow/Monday we expect a 2-3 trend forming before the energy dates start appearing again.
    Details at

  32. rd3777 says:

    Tony…one would think todays action was bullish I think. The DAX looks like it wants to go higher and some stocks broke out today, although some did continue down. I can’t see a down market with crude going higher and Yellen’s speech next week. thanks
    Upside target continues to be 2225-2230 SPX

  33. That’s one helluva rising wedge or the market is just broken. Shorts afraid because having been burned and longs not willing to buy this high. Thanks Bernanke/Yellen!

    FWIW – McClellan has a Prez cycle chart showing Aug 31st as a top and big decline into Oct.

  34. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. I’d like to see us drop tomorrow and we seem set up for it. But so often the opposite seems to happen towards the upside.

  35. mike7x says:

    I’ll be short here. Thanks Tony!

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