Monday update

SHORT TERM: market opens higher, DOW +60

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: -4.2 v 0.6. The market opened five points above Friday’s SPX 2184 close and rallied to 2194 by 11:30. At 10am the NAHB was reported higher: 60 v 59. After hitting a new high the market went into a small trading range for the rest of the day closing at SPX 2190.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude rallied $1.35, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow: building permits, housing starts and the CPI at 8:30, then industrial production at 9:15.

The market opened at a new high today, rallied to SPX 2194, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. Thus far it looks like Minor 3 is moving right along, having risen from SPX 2172-2194. Since Minor 1 (2148-2188) was 40 points, Minor 3 would equal that at the 2212 pivot. The first Fibonacci resistance, however, is just ahead a SPX 2200 +/- 2 points. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought, and ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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116 Responses to Monday update

  1. mjtplayer says:

    Utilities are breaking down, a signal that rates are about to rise?

  2. kvilia says:

    Tony, Tuesday update link is not working.


  3. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony looks like another 3BR on daily with CCI confirm lets see if it works this time this was going into Tuesday update but cant seem to open the page..

  4. magnus1234 says:

    F… the market. Sweden in the Final in the Olympic games in Football 🙂

  5. captbara says:

    Bulls want running flat for more grind up. Bears want ending diagonal. My perspective from a glance at the hourly chart.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Looking to go long at 2176 but we may not even get there. Very weak pb.

  7. rd3777 says:

    Could be finished here as I had this Aug 15 area as a possible top but I still expect another rally for a 5 wave up…..but you never know…so far looks corrective down for the last 2 weeks in many leaders…

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failure @ YR2 & Daily Shooting Star Candle, not inspiring confidence.
    Continued failure at YR2 @ 219.42, potential retest of MPP @ 213.91 ~ YR1 @ 212.01
    GL All

  9. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony.
    “”Just think back to August 2009. Did the fundamentals then support a 6-year bull market that would triple from the SPX 667 low?””” from weekend report

    I am lawyer and closed a house bought in Brampton,ON (satellite city of Toronto) in 2008 @ $269,000.00 for $ 825,000.00 in 2016. Mind you the house price did not fall in Toronto at all in 2008.

    People are paying off thr mortgages taking home line of credit or personal line of credit. I agree fundamentals do not support but….. Any view ?

  10. Lee X says:

    this hack trader is thinking its time to take some profits on CL. 15% pop since Tony put the hammer down 😉

  11. John Arella says:

    Fifth wave failure on the downturn this morning so I expect the spx to turn positive today 😉

  12. stmro says:

    I’d like to see sustained trading below 100 on USD/JPY coinciding with a close below 2060 to be sure of the next correction. I think the media is going to play up the dollar story over the next few weeks.

  13. phil1247 says:


    2179 target hit

  14. It wasn’t Lockhart,but Dudley with a stealth speech at 845am to slam gold $13.Such corruption and lies.As I said,dollar manipulation (attempted).

    • I see.They had an emergency appearance for Dudley on Foxbiz…lol.Dollar falls more than a percent and they have to wake him up and get him out there.Can’t wait for 1130am to roll around…Gold was at 1360 2 hrs earlier–good job Yellen.

    • captbara says:

      Just as I suspected would happen. Rate hike talk to stem the bleeding in USD

      • It’s so predictable–why does anyone believe it?I guess the computer algos see it and react.Simple stuff.If it was people trading,they’d say”b.s.”there’s no rate increase in Sept,but they can fool the stupid algos.For a little while–and that’s all they want.I’ m out of here for the day.If gold somehow gets back above 1360 today–BUY!

  15. mtu MTU says:

    [9am] ES update-
    ES is probing the green line for continued near term support. Will the line hold? See chart.

  16. phil1247 says:

    / ES

    2181 failed

    support 2174 then 2160

  17. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: Have completed 5.3.1 (DT completed). Target for 5.3.2 is 10 100 alternatively 10 350 before 5.3.3.

    DAX30 10 min:
    DAX30 1h:
    DAX30 Daily:

  18. John Arella says:

    Upward move on its way 😉

    monthly Macd turned up
    weekly Macd positive
    daily Macd turning soon

  19. phil1247 says:


    extension long at 2187 failed
    support at 2181 was violated but bounced
    up to short entry level at 2186
    2179 is target for this short

    this could start the slippery slope down to 2160 now

  20. ajaysinghi says:

    Yesterday was the last day for snp upmove. If it continues to move up today, then an ed is almost confirmed. In that case, above 2196, spx tgt 2232.

  21. Morning all.I woke up waaay too early today. $XJY moved up close to 100,DXY made a lower low than early August…now what?Well,being the suspicious type,I’ll wait a couple days to see how this plays out(or even 5 hrs)…Lockhart is speaking at 1130.Wonder what his goal will be?Turn the dollar around with more hawk talk?Back to sleep for me.

  22. vivelaamo says:

    I appreciate that most on here are in the states but check out the 10pm BST pump in European indices. It’s quite ridiculous really. Pull backs are lasting hours as opposed to days.

  23. R D. says:

    A look into the long term wave count on the quarterly chart of the Nasdaq 100. With the stochastic with a cross this quarter just finishing a 4th wave triangle.It looks like will have a move of several quarters possibly into the 7-8000 range.This coincides with M2 rising at 150 Billion per month currently.Good thing last time we had a cross in the 89 area it took 6 quarters to end .This time it will be half of that with the top coming in sometime Jan-Feb 2017.

    • R D. says:

      The British FTSE also very close to all time highs @7000 above that & a breakout from 16 year consolidation would be uber bullish IMHO.This too would be a trigger for a huge bullish push worldwide .In that scenario we could easily see $5000-10000 gold as it would signal hyperinflation on a massive scale.Central banks gone wild with debt is the only answer these bankers see to get off center unfortunately .Just charts mam just charts.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Hi RD the move in FTSE has been relentless since Brexit. A combination of low pound from Brexit and then further devaluation from QE and interest rate cuts has helped no end. There are talks of a further cut to 0 next month. People like my old man who were always responsible and saved money and avoider debt have been hit the hardest.
        As for FTSE it may break to new highs but at such over sold levels you’d expect some sort of pb first.

        • rd3777 says:

          The FTSE like every other index is in it’s final Z or C wave up….might get a nominal new high with oil moving up and then a bear market. Look for one final rally in the SPX and then down for 2 years

  24. ajaysinghi says:

    At 1500, spx will be a superb buying wont go below 1400 now.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Hi Ajay hope you’re well. How can 1500 be seen during world wide central bank money printing and low or negative interest rates. Are you talking a few years down the line?

      In the short to medium term I would say 2120 is a good buying opportunity.

  25. Jack Sparrow says:

    futures pointing to that the move is done with and correction ahead ….or one more push of less than 10 points left at best..

  26. torehund says:

    I spotted a floating Abc relationship (today) on Tonys Daily SPX chart starting Mid March until now. Also note the accompanying histogram is tempting to go positive. If this holds true the index may go big fast.

  27. chicotheman says:

    Double div still stands on SPX daily RSI.Still looking for the flush down, imminently – correction relative to the last 200 up, until/unless 2200 exceeded. Sentiment seems exuberant while recent gains are minimal.On the other hand if this is wrong, it should spike up, not crawl.

  28. bud67 says:

    ref AAPL….like the stock and price pattern.
    Although, no investment being considered,
    as the price AT ROUGHLY 109 the shares
    could easily run to 135, or higher. This
    late update, leaves AAPL as a trade only.
    Not for me, at this time…

  29. Jack Sparrow says:

    fiona et al, the best thing is to keep on shorting uwti and dwti….you will make lot of money from decay..last time (few weeks back) oil was in this range uwti was close to 40, now its in mid 20s for the same corresponding price… same thing for dwti

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      the present uwti price translates to oil price of 38 (back in march)….so would have been as easy short with less risk than shorting oil

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Jack…you have really different ideas. (it sounds complicated, but I am all for you doing this and becoming desperately rich….)
      One of the fund managers here was suggesting taking the long bond at its word ..50 years of no growth…I haven’t quite decided if he was serious or not….BOE trying to buy at the long end later today, so bond talk is the thing…
      Stocks they seem to think have a free rein, until tightening …and then we’ll see…do well

  30. stmro says:

    We need a catalyst to get a correction going. I’ll be watching the reaction to the FED minutes on Wednesday with interest. Some more upside is likely until then.

    I’ve also been thinking about the ramp and camp nature of this uptrend. A normal market is driven by buyers and sellers all with their own outlooks and strategies, but increasingly, CBs are buying equities. What is their strategy? CBs only buy. At what point do they sell? Does this put an underlying bid underneath the market that limits corrections and supports valuations even during overbought extremes? Do we end up with an equity market with a shortage of supply just like the current situation with short dated bonds?

  31. kvilia says:

    Thanks Tony and Hi Lee 😉

  32. phil1247 says:


    extension long at 2187 has failed
    bearish below 2189
    support drops to 2181 as described in previous post

    failure there leads to 2160

  33. TLT and IEF looking like they will break support should be another week of upside in US markets probably further good economic news coming, has the US government turned on the fiscal spending tap for the election.

    Tony went to a preso. on the geo political situation in Asia. It seems now that Abe has control of the upper house he has managed to change the defensive laws allowing Japan to build a larger military for defence purposes to counteract Chinese aggression. China currently spend US200b p.a. on military spending, Japan spend US40b p.a. so if they lift their spending to US200b p.a. this should form the majority of their fiscal QE strategy and also boost their use of private industry excess capacity & GDP. Japanese stocks sure look attractive long-term, seems we will have a re-run of the 1930’s military build-up which required large fiscal deficits of up to 30% p.a. US & Japanese defence stocks look good long-term. Europe also needs to spend up to counteract Russian aggression. Replay of the Reagan years perhaps.

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is ES by

  35. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  36. NEWBIE says:

    Every one bullish no matter how bad things are.

  37. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Rut is impressive, such a long flattening period and then it turns steeper still. Cant ask for more.
    $Btk drags it along, just hoping some overseas “stacked away profit” will expedite any merger activity.

  38. phil1247 says:

    just got back
    order to sell all uco at $10.30 was filled while i was having opthalmic exam
    daily short has traded at 45.92 ..

    rather be out

    wishing i was in

  39. Ajney says:

    Technically, we have bullish signs in the indices where we have broken out of a head and shoulder type pattern in some indices. We have been adopting a cautionary approach (aka cash in equity) since we were trending into this week’s energy dates and given that we are probably in the fifth wave of this uptrend. Tomorrow/Dayafter and Friday are major energy dates, today was a minor one. TLT is flashing some warning signs.

  40. fotis2 says:

    Many thanks Tony.Finaly entered long in CORN looks decent for some upside lets see
    COTTON?Dropped like a sack of potatoes not chasing this one SPX ahem got that one wrong…again.GL people

  41. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    Potential scenarios for 5 of 5 since the Brexit low. [red] completed EDT. [blue] ongoing EDT. [d]-down in progress, [e]-up next. [green] full impluse. (iv)-down of[v]of5 in progress, (v)-up of [v]of5 next, capped at 2252. See charts.

  42. bud67 says:

    Thank you Tony, great short term analysis.

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