REVIEW
The week started with the SPX at 2183. On Monday the SPX made a slightly higher high, hit an all time high at 2188 on Tuesday, then pulled back to 2172 on Wednesday. On Thursday the SPX matched that high, then dipped some to end the week at 2184. Overall it was a quiet week with a range of less than 1%. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the PPI and the Q3 GDP estimate. On the uptick: business/wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims both improved. Next week’s economic reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, Industrial production and Housing.
LONG TERM: uptrend
In the world of Elliott Wave analysis we are always dealing with probabilities. Most times there is just one significant count that fits the probabilities. And at others, there could be several. When there are several potential counts it is generally not a problem for investors, as long as they are all pointing in the same market direction. Which is the situation now. Over time the market will eliminate some of the counts, until we are again dealing with just one count.
In recent months we have been presenting two scenarios: Primary V in the NYSE, and Primary B in the SPX. Despite giving these counts a 50/50 probability they can actually occur at the same time. As the NYSE only requires new all time highs for a Primary V. However, the upside would be limited to about SPX 2335: 1.618 x Primary A. Nevertheless both suggest a positive outcome in the weeks and months ahead.
Another quantified count, which also offers a positive outcome, has been posted for a few weeks in Stockcharts on the DOW charts. This count has been mentioned but no details have been given until this time. After completing the necessary research we now feel it is time to formally present it. Keep in mind all long/medium term waves have to be quantified to even be presented as a viable possibility. We can not just place labels on a chart because an index has a certain look and the labels look right. We can only place labels where quantified waves have actually occurred. This is the main reason we have not adopted the NYSE count on the SPX charts. The two wave patterns may look alike, but they are not the same.
From 2009 to 2015 OEW quantified a long term uptrend. Then at the beginning of 2016 OEW confirmed a long term downtrend. An impulsive long term uptrend defines a bull market. Everything else is a bear market, or bear market rally. What was surprising was that within a month after the long term downtrend was confirmed the market reversed, and is now again in a long term uptrend. This is a relatively rare event, and has occurred less then 20% of the time in the entire 130-year history of the US stock market. Thus far the uptrend looks impulsive suggesting a new bull market is underway. Not a continuation of the 2009 bull market.
Since the bear market only corrected about 15% it does not qualify as a Cycle wave. Therefore if a new bull market is underway, 2009-2016 can only be labeled as Primary waves I and II. This suggests a Primary III bull market is now underway as Cycle wave [1] extends in time, from the expected somewhat short pattern to a much, much longer pattern. Certainly, by now, some of you are probably thinking the fundamentals do not support such a scenario. Just think back to August 2009. Did the fundamentals then support a 6-year bull market that would triple from the SPX 667 low?
One thing we uncovered while doing this research is that the NYSE, which does have four completed quantified waves and currently in its fifth, is actually more representative of a foreign index than a US index. NYSE index a foreign index? While the NYSE composite contains mostly US companies there is a handful of very large cap ADR’s. These ADRs have apparently skewed the index enough to make it look more like the DJ World index than a US index. Nearly all of the foreign markets also display four quantified waves during 2009-2016, with possibly a fifth underway. As a result the count that most Elliotticians have embraced is actually a world index count, and not a US index count.
For now, since all three of these potential scenarios point to higher prices ahead, we will just let the stock market eliminate the two that do not apply as it continues to unfold.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
Regardless of the actual labeling, an uptrend began at the Br-exit low in late June at SPX 1992. Thus far we have counted five waves up from that low with the fifth wave still underway. The four completed waves were at SPX: 2109-2074-2178-2148, and the fifth wave has already made new highs.
The important thing about this count is that the third wave (104 pts.) was shorter than the first wave (117 pts.). This requires the current fifth wave to be shorter than both, since the third wave cannot be the shortest. This suggests the upside limit to this uptrend is SPX 2251. The uptrend hit SPX 2188 this week.
This also offers another interesting problem as noted by the red box on the SPX and NYSE daily charts. We covered this in detail in last weekend’s update. Quite a few variables to deal with in the months ahead. Medium term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots.
SHORT TERM
As previously noted this uptrend has unfolded in four completed waves with the fifth underway. Since the fifth wave has to be the shortest of the three, we had calculated three Fibonacci levels where it could possibly conclude: 2200, 2221 and 2230. These are all +/- 2 points. There is also two OEW pivots at 2212 and 2252. These are +/- 7 points.
During this fifth wave up from SPX 2148 we have observed two smaller waves, with a third underway: 2188-2172-and 2188 again thus far. Since the first wave travelled 40 points, then pulled back 16 points, the third wave could also rally 40 points to the 2212 pivot. Then after another 15-20 point pullback the SPX should rally again to complete the fifth of fifth wave. This is one possibility. Regardless of how it unfolds the SPX should not drop to 2148 again until these five smaller waves conclude. If it does the uptrend is probably already over, and 5+% correction is probably underway. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just above neutral. Best to your trading next week!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.5%.
The European markets were all higher for a gain of 2.2%.
The Commodity equity group were also all higher for a gain of 2.2%.
The DJ World index gained 1.2%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 0.3% on the week.
Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 6.4% on the week.
Gold is also in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.
The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Monday: the NY FED at 8:30 then the NAHB at 10am. Tuesday: building permits, the CPI, housing starts and industrial production. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: Options expiration.
“Just think back to August 2009. Did the fundamentals then support a 6-year bull market that would triple from the SPX 667 low?” Anyone know the PE ratio for August 2009?
LikeLike
July 7 2009 it was 16.7
Hope that helps
LikeLike
Thanks! I’m pretty skeptical that we’re starting a new multi-year bull market. The fact that the PE in July 2009 was sitting just above the mean, probably had a lot to do with its trajectory.
LikeLike
It was around 11. I remember because at market bottoms the P/E usually drops to between 6 and 8, so I was watching it and was surprised that it never got that low. But, clearly it was much lower than the average P/E and much lower than what the P/E is now, so clearly that’s the huge difference that certainly provides evidence that we are not entering a new bull market.
LikeLike
for clarification S & P 500 P/E was 11 at MArch 2009 market bottom
LikeLike
According to what source ?
For the record:
the GAAP PE at the March 2009 market low was 39.
the GAAP PE at the referenced period peaked in Sept 2009 at 158
it did not normalize until April 2010 when it hit 23
the GAAP PE at the Feb 2016 low was 20, and is currently 25
LikeLike
Here’s a link Tony. This is a link to an article on Motley Fool, but at the time I was reading Robert Schiller’s work, so it is well known. I’m sure you know what you’re talking about but I have never seen P/Es quoted as high as you’ve posted.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/03/06/is-this-the-market-bottom.aspx
LikeLike
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21PESPX&p=M&b=1&g=0&id=p90141989894&a=377689390&r=1471186661246&cmd=print
LikeLike
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21PESPX&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p30198235265&a=376854539&r=1471186911538&cmd=print
LikeLike
The lighter line on the chart you provided a link to seems to reflect what the Motley Fool article and Robert Schiller’s work said, since the P/E reflected by that line is 11 at the market bottom in March 2009. Unfortunately, the lighter line doesn’t seem to be labeled.
LikeLike
just looked at the data
the low of all of 2009 was 16 in february
LikeLike
Seems to dependon how it is calculated.
LikeLike
Companies are allowed to report earnings without deducting for non-reoccurring expenses
This is what is called headline earnings,
When they do, in the fine print is the actual GAAP earnings.
Corporate heads and money managers pay more attention to GAAP and not headline.
There was a meeting this year by many corporate heads suggesting everyone should report GAAP earnings, because headline earnings are misleading.
But nevertheless the SEC allows it and this is what is reported by the media.
LikeLike
The point remains the same, the market in 2009 was fairly/undervalued historically. I realize we’re are not wildly overvalued at 25, but the downside risk is much greater now than the summer of 2009. To each their own.
LikeLike
Ten years ago, roughly 75% of all global trade was denominated in U.S. Dollars. Today that number is around 38%, and dropping like a rock. When trade with Britain and Canada are taken out of that number, it becomes even more clear how close to collapse the Dollar really is. Not IF, but WHEN that day finally comes, consider that roughly one-third of the American population depends on a government subsidy or distribution of some kind. Social Security, Welfare, Unemployment Insurance, Food Stamps, you name it. One in three Americans would be living on the streets if they didn’t get their monthly check, and where do you think they’ll be when the Dollar collapses?
LikeLiked by 1 person
There is a reason we are the reserve currency and that’s because or our economy. If the dollar were to collapse, the world economic system would have already collapsed. And, it’d be more than people of entitlement programs, it’d be everyone.
Here is an article that relates to your post.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21669875-americas-economic-supremacy-fades-primacy-dollar-looks-unsustainable-dominant-and
LikeLike
Not any time soon pal.
LikeLike
Doesn’t matter because all business done in the US will be done in dollars. The government can print as many as they want. Who cares what the dollar is worth abroad? Our country is largely self-sustaining, we would just stop important as much and make more here.
LikeLiked by 1 person
…stop importang as much…
LikeLike
Nothing’s changed. BTFD. All the best.
LikeLike
Yes I starting to think the global bullish scenario for equities is on. Chinese will keep stimulas going as the communist party need to maintain power = reflation, Japanese reflating via fiscal policy , UK then Europe next. Will be a few sell offs along the way to add to equities positions eveyone is heavily long fear trades gold and 30yr futures near record levels.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dreamers permitted.
LikeLike
Very interesting report Tony! Thank you! The economic data you report weekly seems to be very positive and has been for months. I am surprised the GDP seems so weak given the parade of mostly positive numbers. Perhaps the economy is stronger than we think? That said the GDP and earnings keep underperforming. I wonder at this point why this has been a pattern for the past few years. If the 3rd scenario is correct then we should see these underlying positive reports result in a surge in GDP and earnings. Even the 2352 scenario is quite positive. I note some good patterns in the FXI and in Japan that seem to be emerging too. Maybe we are about to get a coordinated worldwide boom. This would be the big surprise.
LikeLiked by 1 person
that sure would catch many by surprise
LikeLike
Why would it be a suprise? Technically we look set up for such a scenario.
LikeLike
Thank TC.
LikeLiked by 1 person
It is funny to hear from Tony “Certainly, by now, some of you are probably thinking the fundamentals do not support such a scenario. Just think back to August 2009. Did the fundamentals then support a 6-year bull market that would triple from the SPX 667 low?”
I think they will never matter so the market is going to the Mars and never coming back down to the ground. Not the wise way to think I guess!
LikeLiked by 1 person
the race to Mars, will Bezos get there first
LikeLike
Blue Origin is looking better than the Falcon. Bezos is not getting as much attention as Musk.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Perhaps then, this daily blog should be relegated to one of two sets of guidance.
1 – “Central banks are still active. Equities will continue up.”
Or
2 – “Central banks are not active. Equities will go down.”
(For a moment, think about the above in the context of Tony’s most recent long term bear market call)
Really, what’s the point of OEW, TA, Fundamentals, etc. If someone wants to actively manage for max returns, they would just follow the sectors of rotation with a levered ETF for each – higher risk but potential for higher returns. If someone does not want to actively manage, they would just buy a levered index fund – least (equity) risk.
LikeLiked by 1 person
But TA has supported CB action. Time after time bull flags have been set up and broken. If one completely ignored fundamentals (and blogs) and traded purely on TA along with disciplined risk management they would have made a hell of a lot of money these past few years.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thanks Tony, Elliott has always been for the majority of times,a after the fact theory especially since the death of traditional central banking,if there was ever such a thing to begin with. Especially since the adoption of futures markets.
Anyway historically after long continuous market advances terminal waves have occurred in August,September,and early October . I think the current environment fits perfectly here. Although we have a failed broadening top….the last reversal advance is almost always the final advance before the real decline takes place.
By my count of the Fed’s 3 wave paradigm we are in wave Z or E of a multi year triangle that is in supercycle wave [C] in the Russell 3000. I think the market may throw over,but top in early October at the latest….the next likely date clusters are August 23, or Sept 5th
LikeLike
I would expect the Russell 3000 to top in a range of 1320 to 1350 or SPX 1280
LikeLike
Here I have the SPX500 and the same pattern….I think there is a harmonic pattern somewhere in one of these averages….maybe a crab or Gartley.
LikeLike
AMZN mirrors the averages as one continuous pattern super cycle
LikeLike
The only way you could make this pattern is with OPM……pure Fed BS
LikeLike
ISRG another one…Salvador Dali couldn’t paint this one up…..I’m done…if it continues up past the election….I give up.
..http://content.screencast.com/users/ETFtrader/folders/Jing/media/59477971-31ba-4718-ba11-7a95ef3becdd/2016-08-13_1609.png
LikeLike
MTU weekly commentary – Revisiting Breakout and 2016 Scenarios(8/12/16)
expanding triangle wave 4 in SPX and contracting triangle wave 4 in DAX ?
http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/08/mtu-weekend-ed-revisiting-breakout-and.html
LikeLiked by 1 person