weekend update


The week started with the SPX at 2183. On Monday the SPX made a slightly higher high, hit an all time high at 2188 on Tuesday, then pulled back to 2172 on Wednesday. On Thursday the SPX matched that high, then dipped some to end the week at 2184. Overall it was a quiet week with a range of less than 1%. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the PPI and the Q3 GDP estimate. On the uptick: business/wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims both improved. Next week’s economic reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, Industrial production and Housing.

LONG TERM: uptrend

In the world of Elliott Wave analysis we are always dealing with probabilities. Most times there is just one significant count that fits the probabilities. And at others, there could be several. When there are several potential counts it is generally not a problem for investors, as long as they are all pointing in the same market direction. Which is the situation now. Over time the market will eliminate some of the counts, until we are again dealing with just one count.


In recent months we have been presenting two scenarios: Primary V in the NYSE, and Primary B in the SPX. Despite giving these counts a 50/50 probability they can actually occur at the same time. As the NYSE only requires new all time highs for a Primary V. However, the upside would be limited to about SPX 2335: 1.618 x Primary A. Nevertheless both suggest a positive outcome in the weeks and months ahead.


Another quantified count, which also offers a positive outcome, has been posted for a few weeks in Stockcharts on the DOW charts. This count has been mentioned but no details have been given until this time. After completing the necessary research we now feel it is time to formally present it. Keep in mind all long/medium term waves have to be quantified to even be presented as a viable possibility. We can not just place labels on a chart because an index has a certain look and the labels look right. We can only place labels where quantified waves have actually occurred. This is the main reason we have not adopted the NYSE count on the SPX charts. The two wave patterns may look alike, but they are not the same.


From 2009 to 2015 OEW quantified a long term uptrend. Then at the beginning of 2016 OEW confirmed a long term downtrend. An impulsive long term uptrend defines a bull market. Everything else is a bear market, or bear market rally. What was surprising was that within a month after the long term downtrend was confirmed the market reversed, and is now again in a long term uptrend. This is a relatively rare event, and has occurred less then 20% of the time in the entire 130-year history of the US stock market. Thus far the uptrend looks impulsive suggesting a new bull market is underway. Not a continuation of the 2009 bull market.

Since the bear market only corrected about 15% it does not qualify as a Cycle wave. Therefore if a new bull market is underway, 2009-2016 can only be labeled as Primary waves I and II. This suggests a Primary III bull market is now underway as Cycle wave [1] extends in time, from the expected somewhat short pattern to a much, much longer pattern. Certainly, by now, some of you are probably thinking the fundamentals do not support such a scenario. Just think back to August 2009. Did the fundamentals then support a 6-year bull market that would triple from the SPX 667 low?

One thing we uncovered while doing this research is that the NYSE, which does have four completed quantified waves and currently in its fifth, is actually more representative of a foreign index than a US index. NYSE index a foreign index? While the NYSE composite contains mostly US companies there is a handful of very large cap ADR’s. These ADRs have apparently skewed the index enough to make it look more like the DJ World index than a US index. Nearly all of the foreign markets also display four quantified waves during 2009-2016, with possibly a fifth underway. As a result the count that most Elliotticians have embraced is actually a world index count, and not a US index count.

For now, since all three of these potential scenarios point to higher prices ahead, we will just let the stock market eliminate the two that do not apply as it continues to unfold.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Regardless of the actual labeling, an uptrend began at the Br-exit low in late June at SPX 1992. Thus far we have counted five waves up from that low with the fifth wave still underway. The four completed waves were at SPX: 2109-2074-2178-2148, and the fifth wave has already made new highs.


The important thing about this count is that the third wave (104 pts.) was shorter than the first wave (117 pts.). This requires the current fifth wave to be shorter than both, since the third wave cannot be the shortest. This suggests the upside limit to this uptrend is SPX 2251. The uptrend hit SPX 2188 this week.

This also offers another interesting problem as noted by the red box on the SPX and NYSE daily charts. We covered this in detail in last weekend’s update. Quite a few variables to deal with in the months ahead. Medium term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots.


As previously noted this uptrend has unfolded in four completed waves with the fifth underway. Since the fifth wave has to be the shortest of the three, we had calculated three Fibonacci levels where it could possibly conclude: 2200, 2221 and 2230. These are all +/- 2 points. There is also two OEW pivots at 2212 and 2252. These are +/- 7 points.


During this fifth wave up from SPX 2148 we have observed two smaller waves, with a third underway: 2188-2172-and 2188 again thus far. Since the first wave travelled 40 points, then pulled back 16 points, the third wave could also rally 40 points to the 2212 pivot. Then after another 15-20 point pullback the SPX should rally again to complete the fifth of fifth wave. This is one possibility. Regardless of how it unfolds the SPX should not drop to 2148 again until these five smaller waves conclude. If it does the uptrend is probably already over, and 5+% correction is probably underway. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just above neutral. Best to your trading next week!


The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.5%.

The European markets were all higher for a gain of 2.2%.

The Commodity equity group were also all higher for a gain of 2.2%.

The DJ World index gained 1.2%.


Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 0.3% on the week.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 6.4% on the week.

Gold is also in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.


Monday: the NY FED at 8:30 then the NAHB at 10am. Tuesday: building permits, the CPI, housing starts and industrial production. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: Options expiration.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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276 Responses to weekend update

  1. Thank you for posting this chart. You don’t look at the narrowest points on the entire chart, you look at the narrowest points when the BB compress from a wider range.

    • vivelaamo says:

      ok thank you for clarifying.

    • vivelaamo says:

      The thing is Christine. My original post was referring to what happened next after 2006 which was the narrowest point after compressing from a wider range. It continued 20% before it crashed. It could continue 20% now before it crashes. Do you see my point?

  2. vivelaamo says:

    I’m not trying to wind anybody up here. I’m just trying to see see what others see and learn from them. In this case I can’t see it and need some guidance on what I am doing wrong.

    • That’s fine, VIv, then just ask if you don’t understand something rather than making untrue statements. You did this yesterday too when you said the monthly MACD hadn’t crossed. Just slow down and realize that if you’re new to this that your assessments may not be on the mark yet.

      • …when you said the monthly MACD had crossed and it hadn’t

      • vivelaamo says:

        You told me not to respond to you and we all due respect I’m a) not new to this, and b) completely disagree with your assessment and actually amazed you deem yourself to be an experienced trader with some of the stuff you come out with it. But hey, thats what blogs are all about. You don’t need to get angry.

        • Viv, you are responding to me if you’re posting responses to what I say. I have ignored everything you have said today, however you have not done the same. I think it’s clear to everyone who is experienced and who is not, whether it be me, you, or anyone else. Please refrain from being snarky and confrontational. I don’t know why you’v e chosen me as s target, but Tony has made it clear that such behavior is not allowed. Personally, I don’t care what you think of me or my trading experience. I know it’s well founded. I support what I say by providing links or referring to charts. In fact, I had a respectful exchange with Tony yesterday about P/Es that I was able to substantiate. So, please check your attitude and back off!!!

          • vivelaamo says:

            I just think its irresponsible to post bearish statements without mentioning something like the market climbed a further 15-20% from the narrowest point in 2006. This is fact. Whether its wrong or not people actually think certain people on this site know what they are talking about and make trading decisions based on their assessments. There is no attitude. I’m trying to be civil and just posting the facts.

            • You’re not posting facts, as I proved yesterday and today. Let people fact check me for themselves. They’ll probably do a better job of it!!!

              • vivelaamo says:

                Its a fact that 2006 BB were at the narrowest point at that time and continued a further 15-20%. I don’t understand why you can’t acknowledge this. I’m not saying it will happen again but it should be noted.

              • vivelaamo says:

                and as for yesterday I posted a chart which proved they had crossed. Just because your chart showed something else it doesn’t mean I was wrong does it?

        • Yeah and saying you have no idea why the Fed would support the market and you don’t need to know facts, and the fact that you don’t know how to read Bollinger Bands, and all you have to say every day is BTFD are great evidence of experience. And, you make the bull bear thing like it’s a football game, as if we have to battle each other to win. I don’t think anyone here looks at it that way. I look at it as a means to consider the other sides information. You asked me yourself if I saw any bullish signs and I named a few, because it’s not a matter of being loyal to one side. It’s a matter of analyzing the information.
          And, if you think my assessments are off the mark you can argue with Robert Schiller, George Soros, John Hussman, Bill Gross, and Tony until recently, about that, because what I think is largely based on reading about what they think. No offense but my guess is that you’re a male under the age of 30. That’s precisely when you think you know more than you do is at it’s peak, and worse, you’re aggressive about it nonetheless. Now, again, BACK OFF, liek I suggested yesterday. No one needs you to double check what I say and post your conclusion. THey can do it themselves.

    • bud67 says:

      email me….bud_67@hotmail.com
      worth your time. per you comment.



  5. vivelaamo says:

    Anybody using a narrowing BB for a break out might like to consider which side of the BB price is currently at when taking positions.

  6. bud67 says:

    SP500 has been depicting a rather narrow price range for
    a little while now – this am, for certain. A surprise, price reversal
    sure is looking possible to you kind folks holding, long. Me ?
    I am in cash….

  7. phil1247 says:

    / CL

    uco target still 10.27 – 10.30

    looking for any pop in oil to take profits now

    • fionamargaret says:

      I’ll disagree Phil – think UWTI is just getting stronger…..

      • The price of crude oil at 46.33 is right at the convergence of its 10, 20, and 30 day moving averages, which should create a lot of resistence. Would be interesting to see if it can break through.

    • bud67 says:

      I am with you, in your thinking. Only,
      I see UCO, will make one more new low,
      Aug 2nd, just looks like W3 low,
      and this a W4 counter trend rally.
      I am expecting 1 more new low….
      USO UCO, or OIL….thanks…end

  8. bud67 says:

    Just a guess, but 2193 looking like a high, for today, at minimum….

  9. cj32 says:

    Cr . to CBZ

  10. purplember says:

    Phil, how high CL going ? it keeps running higher

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Long shot for the Bears but the VIX hasn’t made a new low today while stocks make new highs. Sorry if already mentioned.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    This move from Brexit low’s is incredible. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it! God bless central banks!

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Another pattern the Bears can no longer point to. What’s next?

  14. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Hey guys I thought there was a no politics no blogmances policy, you noisy sons of guns.

  15. phil1247 says:



    in extension longs
    bullish above 2187
    target 2192

  16. alexhartley1 says:

    There’s a cycle date 18/8 coming into view this week which could potentially mark a top of sorts for equities. This would potentially co-inside with a short-medium term top in oil (perhaps a b top before a final c down to the 35-36 level to complete a major b bottom. Then oil would have another leg up to the 60-70 level for an X wave top. I am not convinced the major b bottom is in.

  17. phil1247 says:

    11:30 reversal period

    will it ?

  18. Volume in GDX is steadily decreasing lately,technicals not as strong either.If gold can take out 1357 and 1370,with volume,I’ll be more bullish.These are all short term concerns.”Someone”,put a cap on gold at those two levels.I’ll bide my time until all this improves.The dollar is not being allowed to drop as well.If and when that happens or $XJY breaks 100–will be bullish signs for me.

  19. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing the YR2 @ 219.42 ~ Next YR pivot at 224
    GL All


  20. stmro says:

    2195. Could go up another 25 points or so this week or could plateau here. Doubt we get significant downside in OPEX though.

  21. phil1247 says:


    in extension longs hitting target after target

    3rd wave action

    raised stops on upro

  22. The common definition of insanity is: making the assumption that certain behavior–when repeated–will result in a different outcome.
    A few months ago,”they” jacked up oil prices with a prognostication that Russia and Saudi Arabia would freeze production.Never happened.NOW “they’re” at it again.
    The insanity,is thinking that a freeze will occur.The intended result–a boost to oil and the equity markets,is very sane,calculated strategy by PPT and the like…and a lie.

  23. H D says:

    interesting cycle this year for the VIX, may be EOM before volatility returns.

  24. phil1247 says:


    45.46 critical level

    its HWB from high

    and extension long target

    came within 5 cents and backed off

  25. Lots of options out there short term. My 2 cents is 5 th wave have typically been week. So anything over 2230 would imply a very good chance that Int 3 and Int 4 get changed to minor 1 and minor 2 and thus minor 3 is underway. Minor 1 would be 104 points and minor 3 would equal minor 1 at 2252 and probably be higher, since wave 3 typically are the strongest. Also, holidays tend to reverse trends, so that puts us at 9-2 for a high. 15 trading days. Also, this would be minute 3 of minor 3 if extending. If reaches 2230 before dropping 14-17 points would be another clue we are moving higher.. Tough markets. Thanks all good luck

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