Friday update

SHORT TERM: market opens lower, DOW -37

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were flat to lower overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.4% v 0.5%, and Retail sales were reported flat: 0.0% v 0.6%. The market opened six points below yesterday’s SPX 2186 close and then started to rebound. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 90.4 v 90.0, and Business inventories were reported higher: 0.2% v 0.2%. At 11:30 the SPX hit 2186 and then started to pullback again. By 1pm the SPX had hit 2179, and then bounced into the close to end the week at 2184.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude rallied $1.20, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered: 3.5% v 3.7%.

The market opened lower today, bounced to SPX 2186, then hit 2179 before bouncing into the close. Not much has changed with the short term count. Thus far: Minor 1 2188, Minor 2 2172, and Minor 3 underway. Short term momentum went from overbought at yesterday’s SPX 2188 to nearly oversold at today’s 2179 low. Short term resistance and support remains the same. A few new things to cover in this weekend’s update. Best to your weekend!


About tony caldaro

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23 Responses to Friday update

  1. Rancho says:

    Thanks Tony !

  2. bud67 says:

    Hello. My investment view of the crude oil market, has changed.
    From being negative, to one that is quite possibly very Bullish.
    Based on the work of Tom McCellan,
    Therefore, the adjustment I’am making is one of seeking significant
    oil price lows, and then plan for a larger rally. More technical work
    needs to be done, but wish to reflect a change in view.
    Good study by Tom McClellan.

  3. fotis2 says:

    CORN and WEAT close above Fridays close triggers long and COTTON weekly 3BR short
    Thanks Tony and everyone for sharing views nice weekend to all.

  4. Mr C…do you have info on how the RSI is calculated on the DXY?How can the relative strength of such a basic indicator,vary in such a way,that would lead to – or +divs?Thanks in advance.

  5. torehund says:

    Lately I have been relying on Macd/histogram analysis in different time-frames guiding the overall direction. Additionally adding EW to Rsi, macd, mdas and other oscillators. Finally glancing at price too when patterns overall looks favorable. I have noted forecasting improvement as the global view is being enhanced. Interesting🙂

  6. Jack Sparrow says:

    Draw your own conclusion….this move from 1800 is over (almost) or not and setting up for a sharp correction

  7. rd3777 says:

    Thanks Tony, The market should start to rally next week into what could be a final top or at least to bring in a decline and then a final top in early October. 3M has a target of 188 to 192. Who ever is the next President will bring in the big sellers….just too much division and unknowns. Once this bubble pops out of the Triple zig-zag formation,it should bring in a historic decline.

  8. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony and others. We have an energy date on the weekend and would expect an opposite reaction to current trend in most instruments on Monday. However, more significant we have a cluster of major energy dates next week, that historically have strong influenced trends. Next couple of weeks should be exciting!

    • CampFreddie says:

      You seem to have “energy dates” nearly every day, sooner or later one of them will be correct and you can claim your system to be the holy grail.

      • Ajney says:

        last weekend we posted that energy waves will hit past Monday, Thursday, Friday. There was a trend from Monday-Wednesday. Thursday/Friday trends were reversed in most markets. If our system predicts a date, we provide it. Markets do not move in one direction!
        I am not sure what you mean by one of them “will be correct”. Most of them typically do induce a change of trend. If you mean to imply that these dates are been advocated for a correction, there may be have been a misinterpretation.
        We currently cannot predict “crashes”, “corrections”, or blow off tops. Only changes in short term trend. Some changes tend to be major some minor. We rely of technical information that we generate or other such as generously provided on this site and by others.

      • bud67 says:

        Camp….be nice….

      • torehund says:

        CF many use the concept of “energy”, I dont think there is too much mystery behind it, macd and histogram evaluation in multiple time-frames give clues to direction, mix in EW into it and forecast becomes acceptable. Also do EW on mdas, RSI and other oscillators to reinforce the prediction. And if it still doesnt pan out right, blame it on chaos-theory🙂

      • robslob64 says:


  9. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have nice weekend.

  10. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, great daily OEW updates this week, much appreciated; look forward to the OEWcc (coffee-club) this weekend.

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