Thursday update

SHORT TERM: DOW makes new highs, DOW +118

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 266K v 269K, and export (0.3% v 0.5%)/import (0.5% v -0.3%) prices were reported higher. The market gapped up at the opening to SPX 2183, ticked up to 2184, then started to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 2175 yesterday. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2179 and then started to rally. The rally lasted until 3:30 when the SPX hit 2188, then a pullback ended the day at 2186.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.45%. Bonds lost 20 ticks, Crude rallied $1.65, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI and retail sales at 8:30, followed by consumer sentiment and business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time since last Friday. After some hesitation in the first hour, four of five major indices made new uptrend highs while the NAZ lagged. With the new highs it appears Minor 2, of Int. v, ended yesterday at SPX 2172, and Minor 3 is now underway. We updated the SPX hourly chart this morning. A simple Minor 3 = Minor 1 would target SPX 2212 next. We posted five levels last weekend for a potential uptrend high: 2200, 2212, 2221, 2230 and 2252. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum rose from yesterday’s positive divergence to overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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116 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Jack Sparrow says:

    those dealing with oil…may find it funny that in last 12 hours i have actually made money playing on the short side.

  2. torehund says:

    $ Btk could be going from here….

  3. Two points on gold (not so much GDX yet):
    1)When something declines in price when it should’ve gone up–not good.
    2)In the last 6 weeks,”someone” sold massive gold contracts at 1370 and now today at 1357.
    There were some -divs on some of this stuff I follow,but with $XJY up a lot today,gold should’ve ripped.They didn’t, so I sold some.Good weekend all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Talking with some of the UK and European fund managers yesterday, they were suggesting getting away from the “safe”plays i.e. gold,bonds,commodities etc. (and changing portfolios to reflect same..)
      That is one of the reasons I have been playing IBB – am looking for good upside….
      Still going to play oil though….

  4. Jack Sparrow says:

    so far the resistance holding up as per the chart from the last week

  5. Nasdaq is going to go green, If the dow could get going,, we could have a nice end of day rally

  6. rd3777 says:

    Looks like a end to this forth wave is coming and a rally next week…..

  7. Looks like market completed an ascending wedge that started in February on the weekly charts, therefore direction is likely downward to retest or break the Brexit lows.

    • mean the S & P 500 completed….

    • vivelaamo says:

      Have you drawn it ignoring Brexit week?

      • This pattern has been forming since February, so Brexit week, which occurred in June is irrelevant. The Brexit reaction fits within the pattern, but does not define it. Since when an ascending wedge breaks, it can retrace all the way back to its base, the market can actually drop below the Brexit low, testing or breaking through the February lows. And, the ascending wedge that has formed since Feb 2016, is within an even larger ascending wedge that started forming in 2009 which is pretty much complete. The same action applies to the multi-year ascending wedge, potentially spelling big trouble for the markets. You would do yourself a favor to learn about these patterns.

        • vivelaamo says:

          I know the pattern I just can’t see how you have drawn it unless you ignore the Brexit low. If the June drop is within the wedge then surely it can go much higher yet? I appreciate your advice but I prefer patterns that I can see rather than patterns I’d like to see.

          • Viv, the ascending wedge is extremely clear on the weekly chart of the S & P. The base of the wedge is formed by the November to February drop, then it ascends with the trading action gradually narrowing gradually to a point, meaning that the pattern is complete. The June Brexit low falls within that gradually narrowing pattern, meaning that it doesn’t define it and is not an outlier. AS for the S & P being one continuous wedge, that’s not true at all For that to be true, there would have had to have been a huge drop at i’ts inception and the range of action would have to be narrowing continuously over history. Instead, some argue that the entire history of the S & P is a giant megaphone pattern, which is also bearish. I do agree that the wedge that started forming in 2009 has the potential to continue upward to 2250, which is not that far away. However, wedges can truncate, so it could complete at any time.

            • vivelaamo says:

              I just cannot fathom how you have drawn this. Maybe you are using cash and I’m using 24 hour charts. Are you able to post a chart please?

        • cyanus66 says:

          One could argue that the entire history of the SPX500 since the dawn of financial time is an ascending wedge that will -nay, must- eventually break down to unfathomable depths, were it not for the endless series of stick-saves by CBs cheating us honest pattern-readers of the pleasure of getting it right at least that once!
          At this stage, the ascending TL since 2008 points to 2250 first, as an aside.

  8. Peter Sliney says:

    This is getting old. Somebody wake Janet up so she can make a statement and get things moving up again.

  9. jobjas says:

    SPX heading to 2140 for wave [4]

  10. phil1247 says:


    re: /CL is a widowmaker

    i regard /cl more as an unfaithful girlfriend

    i love her……..
    but i dont trust her 🙂

    • H D says:

      ha. crazy ex girlfriend… Kudos though, you day trade it w ETF’s, that’s got to be challenging. Intraday has liked $1 moves all month. C u next week.

    • purplember says:

      we dated the same psycho…. good times until morning rolled around

      • fionamargaret says:

        …lucky me…. I never dated girls…
        Now I have oil as a guy who keeps almost breaking my heart, but then embraces me and I just melt….

  11. Atlanta GDP cut to 3.5 from 3.7.Still seems high considering retail sales and all the rest.I see gold got slammed for no reason…except DXY got above the 50d–what a surprise.You can’t keep a rigged market down.

  12. lets see if we get a 1 to 1:30 buy program to kick in and end the week positive

  13. bud67 says:

    Next, SP 500 price gap is 2178-2176, I believe.
    That gap, lower is due to be filled, next….

    • vivelaamo says:

      Hope so. Looking for 2173 area to load up the longs.

    • bud67 says:

      I have no lans to Buy UWTI,
      until the price drops to 15,63
      at a min….then restudy the chart.

      • fionamargaret says:

        … UWTI suggests a price of 28 at the moment Bud…..

        • bud67 says:

          Than you. I too, follow UWTI, and have no interest
          in at current levels, or higher. My price pattern
          of UWTI, and OIL is suggesting a 5th ave down, yet
          to begin – not nearly as high as you suggest. Yours,
          likely is a good trade – I am not a trader, Long term
          investor, would be seeking a much lower UWTI, and OIL,
          and USO price level – I shall wait for it….God Bless
          all for the suggestions/views…..Bud

        • bud67 says:

          Fionamargaret. Thank you
          so much for your reply. However,
          I am not a trader. My investment price is lower….I have the patience.

        • bud67 says:

          Best wishes, to your call….Bud

  14. captbara says:

    So with the b bands being as tight as they are, should we be expecting a massive pop here imminently? Does the wave count support that?

  15. stmro says:

    I wonder where the max pain for options is next week. Given the low volatility, which is unusual even for summer months, i’d think it would be very easy to pin us at that level.

  16. phil1247 says:


    nice bounce off 2176 support

    shorts broken

    bullish above 2179

    target 2189

    added UPRO

  17. Page says:

    Don’t short this market, it will bite you badly, the max you will get is a pullback. The sector rotation will continue from one asset to another, when one asset is overbought the money will be put in oversold sector and the cycle continues. This market does not care about fundamentals so stay in the market until dow hits 20,000 then a decent size correction. 😀

  18. Interest rate on 10 year note has dropped to second lowest in history.

    • I feel bad for people who are buying crappy homes in places like LA for 600k, when they’ll be worth half that when interest rates go up.

      • It’s their choice.BTW–I think 19,000 starts a correction,based on the trendline Nadeem had on his video,that someone posted on here this week.Good luck all…I’m out of here til tomorrow.Hopefully,gold/gdx can finish strong.

  19. phil1247 says:


    grinding up towards target s 44.22…..then 44.50
    not very dynamic now

    prob b wave or 5th wave

    stops raised on UCO

  20. floyd drummer says:


    is it possible that we are in an ending diagonal on the SPX?

    the legs being: leg 1, intermediate III @ 2178, ….leg 2, intermediate IV @ 2147, ….leg 3, minor 1 @ 2188, … and the 4th leg minor 2 @ 2172

    sorry, …no chart with the computer i’m currently working from.

    thanks for all you do, ….very much appreciated!

  21. As suggested,DXY rises from 92.20 low to 92.67!!!I’ll allow for gap filling,but if it goes to 96 and above–Yellen strikes again.

  22. stmro says:

    Rate hike odds dumped to 50% chance, March 2017. Like i said, 0 interest rates forever. We won’t get a rate rise before the next recession.

    • mjtplayer says:

      The Fed has made many excuses over the years not to raise rates. In doing so, they’ve missed the entire rate rise cycle, which should’ve began in 2012, or perhaps 2013 at the latest.

      No ammunition for the next downturn, just more QE, but we all know QE does nothing to help improve the real economy – it just artificially inflates asset prices.

    • purplember says:

      Remember Bernanke was going to raise rates when unemployment hit 6.5% was that 2012 ?? FED is going to manipulate market until a minimum of election date.

  23. By all logic,Atlanta GDP gets sliced down,gold moves up $20,dollar STAYS under the 50d.Equities?Up of course…lol.All those items listed by JMM are buy signals for PPT.

  24. johnnymagicmoney says:

    So Golly….

    GDP averaging 1℅ last two quarters

    productivity huge negative miss

    Wage pressures occurring even though there is deflation!!

    Retail sales huge negative miss

    So the US economy is hot huh?

  25. captbara says:

    Epic dump by the USD off those retail sales.

  26. phil1247 says:


    ext long under pressure
    failure means support is at 42.27

    • phil1247 says:

      that 50 cent /CL bounce came out of nowhere ?

      43.34 is ext long .618 support…….
      somebody is watching this stuff 🙂

  27. phil1247 says:


    extension long has failed

    as noted yesterday
    support is at 2174 es

  28. PPI falls and retail sales miss the estimates for July. Such a robust economy!

  29. bud67 says:

    Good Morning: I have said, I would not make comments to this site.
    That said. I can see, considerable investment risk that this time,
    via the SP500 chart, and my own analysis. I am, an investor.
    Therefore, I seek out the best, investment opportunity. I do not, see
    a safe period in time, or price to get long, the SP500 index….end

  30. Jimbo says:

    Tony, what are your thoughts on the banks and trans? Both are lagging the indexes by some margin. Would you expect these to play catch up going forward?

  31. torehund says:

    Canada goes exponential.

  32. Good call by Arella yesterday although while I could see the failed 5th on the NASDAQ chart, I couldn’t see it on his SPX chart.

  33. $XJY fills yesterday’s gap.Next move may be the real one to pay attention to.Seems to be going in 3 week cycles.Lots of gap filling.Good luck all.

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT by

  35. Bear trades Gold, 30Yr treasuries and USDJPY under pressure for another few months. Probably a bailout coming for Italian banks, China continues to fiscal stimulate to maintain social harmony, Japan increased fiscal spend, Europe looking to do the same. FED unlikely to hike in Sept. US market and economy looks okay at least for another 4 more months into the election.. Seems any weakness in equities will be an adding opportunities. I like Japanese and Italian equities for long-term value. Only the FED can kill this and weakness in China. I think Clinton will be bad for Healthcare sector profitability that’s about 15% of the S&P 500 and a bull leader, so something to watch out for in November. Other key risk is tech unicorns laying off staff and finding it hard to get capital at silly valuations = Tech 20% of S&P 500. Good luck.

  36. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. As we has two energy dates today, we are not sure if both played out today. If they did not, assuming one plays out tomorrow, we have a negative bias for tomorrow. As noted yesterday, we are flat in equity indices in actual positions till next week. Gold went down today, and bonds are back at the trend line.
    Details at

  37. rd3777 says:

    Under Elliott there can only be a triple zig-zag and not a fourth….end of the road is coming…my guess by election time.

  38. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD]Stocks –
    The Dow made a new high. A pullback is in sight (Chart 1 and Chart 2). As discussed yesterday, the 7 unfilled gaps in SPX are likely to be challenged sooner than later (Chart 3).

  39. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. I like this bullish count 😊

  40. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony

  41. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Yup…party like it’s 1999…

    • torehund says:

      Here in Norway the establishment focused on the CPI (which they have themselves downplayed for quite some time in order not to rise rates). Now they bragged about CPI of 4,4 percent, stating the economy is so robust they envisioned a rate bottom at 0,5 percent.
      Point is that oil-sector layoffs have been met with more worthless bureaucrats, a process which will eventually lead us into hyperinflation. 1984 style reasoning will bring about Communism, best option from here that is.

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