Monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -14

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened only one point above Friday’s SPX 2183 close. After ticking up another point in the opening minutes the market started to pullback. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2179, bounced to 2183 by 11:30, then headed lower in the afternoon. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2178, then bounced to close at 2181.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, posted a new high at SPX 2185, then pulled back for the rest of the day. At the high there was a slight negative divergence, and momentum has dropped to neutral. Thus far the pullback is only seven points. Should it continue lower, 15-20 points has been the level of a Minor wave. It is unlikely the uptrend ended at today’s high since neither the DOW nor the NYSE have made a new uptrend high with the recent rally. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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87 Responses to Monday update

  1. Possible formation of 3 elliott wave on the daily chart of the Dow Jones, which may lead the index to a strong achievement.!graphic/c2ln

  2. Jack Sparrow says:

    is this line providing any resistance?

  3. bud67 says:

    USO,, after a 6/9 high, looking like a Bear pattern, incomplete
    but W4 high is complete, thus the W5 down, has begun, low
    yet to be completed.

  4. bud67 says:

    read the remarks – yet, the SP500 – pattern looking bearish,

  5. H D says:

    Turn around Tuesday? nah that’s bearish and not even an option or alt count…..

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:


  7. Jack Sparrow says:

    fiona did u see the move by Valiant

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      when markets are uncertain time to play individual stocks…valiant made a 30 percent move today

    • fionamargaret says:

      I did not catch it Sparrow…..good on you …x

    • fionamargaret says:

      Today changed the pattern for VRX…it broke out of its range, so you could hope for about 40 on holding the stock….but we all know solvency is important, so stops, and be careful……
      If the market is going to go (much) higher, we need biotech’s and financials to do better.
      IBB is suggesting a price of 400……

  8. pooch77 says:

    Dax explosion and DOW still in doldrums

  9. stmro says:

    Interesting reversal. Close here and i’m back to playing the waiting game.

  10. Page says:

    SPX pullback/correction almost here … may start this afternoon

  11. lcd00 says:

    We’re 5 points from NDX all time high of 4816 from March 2000. The following is Weekly NDX chart showing the last 5 major surges of 634-684 points with an average of 669 points. That would put this current NDX move topping around 4848.

  12. stmro says:

    DAX cleared a significant level of resistance today (10500). In fact Europe has been stronger than the US over the last few days.

  13. shauryagh says:

    While fundamentally it will not be surprising to see the S&P end at 2375 year end ( 11% yoy eps growth & 12 month trailing eps has finally started ticking higher again finally!) the anemic pace of the upmove does throw shade on the near term breakout technically..A re-test to the trend line joining the Feb lows & Brexit lows seems likely.Thus while fundamentally Friday’s longs who entered at the highs of Friday will very likely make 10% by end of the year technically it does seem a better accumulation level will be at or slightly below 2100 – a 4% correction which is seasonally due as well. The key to making money will be the ability to hold on to the longs without getting shaken out by such minor corrections until year end. The first cyclical bear market in this structural bull market that is so eagerly awaited will most like start Feb 2017 when core inflation starts printing really ugly numbers to the upside surprising the FED yet once again!…Till then stay long…

    • stmro says:

      I’m looking for 2080 if we manage to pull back, but it will need a news catalyst i feel. Something unexpected.

      • shauryagh says:

        The post- brexit news cycle is actually starting to die down.earnings mostly done.. I suppose we will have to wait for NFP again …The lack of movement is really taxing on the nerves…worse than a full fledged panic crash or a rip your face off rally,..

  14. -div on hourly SPX…does it matter?

  15. H D says:

    ~ 10 handles, 5 waves up from the 2177 Pivot yesterday.

  16. Tony Jordan says:

    DAX really in a hurry today and significantly outperforming Wall Street. Had to check to see if the Euro was in freefall. It’s not, and actually moving up. ATH for SPX today and a new high for the move for NYA. INDU the laggard at present. Would be reasonable to expect INDU to also make a new high for the move above 18622. High for the day so far is 18577.

    • Tony Jordan says:

      DAX and CAC look as though they’re in 3 of 3 off the early sessions lows meaning probably more upside tomorrow in Europe. Not sure why the equity strength in Europe. Perhaps Deutsche Bank fogged a mirror.

  17. captbara says:

    Several indicies breaking out of their weekly IHS. I don’t think those VIX signals posted earlier will work. If this is a true 3rd of multiple degrees they will fake out again and again.

  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Anyone see those productivity numbers this morning? Bad bad bad

    Disconnect continues

  19. stmro says:

    Looks like it’s breaking up. To be honest i’d much rather it broke down, but it is what it is. If we close here at 2184, i will buy at end of day.

  20. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: In P5. Stronger than I expected last Friday. Lover degree w4 completed and now in w5. I have added a long-term view from 2001 on a monthly chart. You will find some interesting fib lvls on that chart e.g. 161% of Cycle 1 (that is Cycle 3) which is around 13200.

    DAX30 1h:
    DAX30 Daily:
    DAX30 2001-2016:

  21. phil1247 says:


    did not hit 42.22 overnite only hit 42.50

    took profits on another 1/3 of uco this am on bounce

    still looking for 42.22 or lower

    only 33% long now

    • purplember says:

      phil, do you see this as temp rally in oil to 45 range or much higher rally to 55-60 range ??

      • phil1247 says:

        not really sure purple

        we are fighting the battle at the 18 d sma line in the sand now
        as ira epstein would say
        a close today above there opens the door to 46 /clu6 ( .50 retrace and 100dsma)
        the extension short has broken

        lets see if we close above 18d

  22. stmro says:

    Bollinger bands STILL getting narrower. Surely we’ve got to make a big move this week. In fact if the market closes today unchanged at 2081, i would count that as a break in the bull’s favour. Bears have much more work to do. They need to close below the middle bb at 2067, or even better, the lower bb at 2151.

  23. kevinmick says:

    Market Oracle

    Stocks Bull Market Climbs Wall of Worry, Bubble? When Will it End?

  24. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony, market breadth remained negative today and has been negative for the past several days: more stocks are declining than advancing: not the hallmark of a sustained rally, rather that of a 5th wave.

    One more higher high to SPX2190-2195 would look best on the wave-count and finally reach my preferred target I’ve had for weeks. Then we should see SPX2100ish before new ATHs (much, much higher).

    Lastly the daily MACD is -so far- not confirming the up move either as it hasn’t given a buy crossover yet.

    Time to be cautious if long imho.


  25. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al.

  26. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Bull.

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DAX by

  28. H D says:

    Thanks Tony, you’ve commented a couple times on the NYA needing to make a HH for this uptrend. I am looking back at February and neither NYA or DJI made LL to end the downtrend. Just SPX. Can you elaborate on why the need for a HH?

  29. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. I think if we consolidate for several days again like we did last month then we will eventually fall to 2130ish before next big move up. Otherwise we continue up this week.

  30. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony! We saw an uptick in TLT today which preserved an important trendline support. IWM has crawled right back into a megaphone it came out of on Friday.
    Details at

  31. Scott C says:

    anyone do homework to see what sector could move the NYSE up 4% the fastest/easiest while stalling the SPX < 2250? Banks/Energy?

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