weekend update


The week started at SPX 2174. After making an all time high on Monday at SPX 2178 the market pulled back to 2148 on Tuesday. After that the market worked its way higher to make another new all time high on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.2%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, consumer debt, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, PCE prices, the ADP, monthly Payrolls, and Q3 GDP estimates. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Retail sales, Business inventories and Export/Import prices. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

Before getting into all the details of this weekend’s report, which presents many variables, it is important to note that the minimum this long term uptrend can rise will not be made until the NYSE makes new all times highs. Which is still about 4% away!


When reviewing the weekly chart of the NYSE we continue to count this advance as Primary V of a five primary wave bull market. This is the most popular count in the Elliott Wave blogosphere. From the February 2016 Primary IV low this index has advanced with a Major wave 1 uptrend, an irregular Major 2 downtrend, and now a Major 3 uptrend underway. We’ll make some observations of this Major 3 uptrend in the next section.


Due to the objectivity of OEW the count presented on the SPX chart is quite different. This count suggests the bull market ended in 2015 with five primary waves up, then entered a primary ABC bear market. Under this scenario the February 2016 low was not Primary IV, but Primary A. And the current advance, even though the SPX is making new highs, is an irregular Primary B with a maximum upside of 2335 (1.618 x Primary A). Should the SPX exceed this level then the count being presented on the DOW charts, which will not be covered in this update, will be the main OEW count. Keep in mind both counts suggest at least another 4% upside in the major indices. We continue give both the NYSE and SPX counts an equal probability of 50%.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

When reviewing the NYSE daily chart we observed something quite interesting. The Major 1 uptrend off the Primary IV low was quite strong as the NYSE advanced 1650 points to 10593. Then after an irregular correction to NYSE 9919 the index started what was expected to be a Major 3 uptrend.


However, as noted in the next section, this uptrend may be ending soon and this advance does not look like a Major wave 3. It has only advanced about 900 points thus far, compared to the 1650 point advance of Major 1, and looks more like a subdivision of Major 3: i.e., an Intermediate wave one. Also, any correction from even NYSE 11100 would overlap Major wave 1 at NYSE 10593. This suggests two possibilities. One: this uptrend is only Intermediate wave one of Major 3, or. Two: this uptrend is subdividing and is going to continue higher than anticipated. Either way is a net positive for the market.


The SPX count, as noted on the above chart, displays four Intermediate waves completed from the Major wave B low at SPX 1992, and Int. wave v underway. This is the count we have been tracking throughout this expected Major wave C uptrend. If this uptrend is to end soon, as noted in the next section, it can not be all of Major wave C. Major C can not end until the NYSE has at least made all time new highs! Therefore the two variables noted above also apply to the SPX but with a slightly different variation. Either Major C is going to subdivide and this uptrend will extend, or this uptrend is only Int. wave a of Major C. The market has reached an interesting, albeit positive, inflection point. Medium term support is now at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots.


This section will hopefully explain what was implied in the two previous sections. The uptrend that started at the SPX 1992 low in late June, has thus far progressed in four Int. waves with the fifth wave underway. The problem arises in that Int. wave iii (104 pts.) was shorter than Int. wave one (117 pts.). As you know third waves cannot be the shortest wave. So Int. wave v has to be equal to or less than Int. iii (maximum 2252), or the entire uptrend is actually subdividing into a much larger uptrend. In which case Int. waves one and two would remain the same, but Int. wave three and four would actually be Minor waves 1 and 2 of Int. iii. An interesting juncture.


Under the current count, uptrend ending soon, there are several Fibonacci and Pivot levels that are worth noting. The pivots at 2212 and 2252, (+/- 7 pts.) are clearly the most obvious. The next obvious is the 2200 level, then the Fibonacci levels at 2221 and 2230 all at +/- 2 pts. Anything above SPX 2252 and this uptrend is subdividing. Any correction after an uptrend completion, within these levels, and Major wave 3/C is subdividing in trends. Any SPX print above 2335 and it is probably heading much, much higher. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2252 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought.


Asian markets for the week were mixed for a 0.2% net gain.

European markets were also mixed for a 0.3% net loss.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 0.7%.

The DJ World index lost 0.2%.


Bonds appear to be downtrending and lost 0.8% on the week.

Crude may have bottomed and gained 0.5% on the week.

Gold is still in an uptrend but lost 1.0%.

The USD may be starting an uptrend and gained 0.7%.


Tuesday: wholesale inventories. Wednesday: budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and export/import prices. Friday: the PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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207 Responses to weekend update

  1. what are the odss int 5 finished today?

  2. phil1247 says:

    /CL trading perfectly

    boyz front run 43.42 ext long target by 3 cents

    hope you have learned these lame tricks by now

    you all know what is going to happen overnite now???
    dont you?

  3. H D says:

    2077 pivot time

  4. Scott C says:

    Hello Everyone/Tony,

    From the weekend update – i just want to make sure I am clear in reading. Previous to this weekend’s post I thought you were saying that there is a 50% probability that the spx count B wave wins out and a 50% probability that the NYSE count wins out… Now after reading your update where it mentions that we need to the NYSE to get 4% higher, are you saying that we have a 50/50 shot at either proving? Basically bifurcated situation proving versus something else playing out?

    The 50/50 odds of us correcting below the latest low is different that saying we are going to correct below that as our primary count but we do not know if it is 50% NYSE going to trigger it or 50% SPX.

    Thank you for your time and continued explanation(s).


    • tony caldaro says:

      Bifurcation remains 50/50, and NYSE still needs to make new highs.
      Where did you get that other 50/50 assumption? Suggest re-reading

      • Scott C says:

        I guess yo read what you want to have happened — 50/50 is tough odds – I did re-ask that a week ago a bid differently but I am always asking a laundry list of questions therefore it is easy to have been missed. Those odds are not the best if anyone is remaining in previous positions.

        Thank you

  5. Labor Market Conditions Index Released On 8/8/2016 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2016
    Current level 1.0 from -0.1

    Nonfarm payrolls have risen a more-than-solid 255,000 and 292,000 the last two months but they barely register on the labor market conditions index, which at 1.0 in July and a revised negative 0.1 in June are completely flat.

    But it takes more than just payrolls to move this index which is a broad composite of 19 separate indicators and is considered experimental by policy makers. This index trended in the positive mid-single digits during 2013 and 2014 before it began to gradually move south. But even at only 1.0, July’s result is relatively good for this index, the first in fact to make it in the positive column this year.

    Based on the long trend of this index, the labor market isn’t that strong at all right now, yet Janet Yellen, back at June’s FOMC press conference, downplayed the weight that this index carries with policy makers.
    Yet another FED based index they created to help them understand the health of the labor market. To suggest they manipulate or purposely slant these reports is ludicrous and this INDEX is another example of transparency.

    I can’t disprove conspiracies so I instead present every piece of evidence that supports the view that the FED wants to get as clear a picture of the state of our economy as anyone else would.

    Latest Q2 SP500 earnings and revenue. Earnings -2%, excluding energy +1.9% Revenue -.7, excluding energy +2.6

    I believe over 90 percent of companies already reported. Draw your own conclusions.

  6. Interesting little pattern I’ve noticed on GDX since the January turn up.It’s been a steady pace up,except for two drops below the 20d sma.After going back above the 20d sma,there were 6 weeks of rally.For the 3rd time,just dropped below and then above in late July–which would mean…. (goldfingers crossed.)6 more weeks of rally? (Like Groundhogs day?)Today’s rally in GDX gives some hope for that.Good luck all.

  7. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony
    Nice job on CL dude

  8. stmro says:

    Gartman just flipped long and the market dropped 4 points within minutes. I can’t help but wonder if he’s actually signalling the elite on when to change direction 🙂

  9. Dear all,

    Would appreciate your help with the following? How can I get exposure to the NYSE Index?
    I am looking for an ETF.

    Thank you all!

  10. Chris C says:

    The most simple count is normally the right count. Daneric finally came around,

  11. tony caldaro says:

    Who said anything about a 30 year bull market?
    Just because previous Cycle bulls were 5, 30, and 30, does not mean much with such a small sample.
    Nevertheless, the NYSE could be in Major 3 of Primary III.

    • alexh110 says:

      Ah, ok thanks Tony.
      My 30-year assumption was based on the secular pattern, because the DOW count suggests we have entered a new Secular Bull, which ought to last at least another 16-20 years.

  12. alexh110 says:

    Just a quick question Tony about your DOW count.
    Am wondering what happens to the count on the NYSE composite if the other stock indices are in a 30-year bull market?
    Since the NYSE still needs to go through a Cycle degree bear market, I’m not sure how that could happen when all other indices are in a strong bull market?
    Would you resolve this conflict by having a very long Primary V on the NYSE, lasting for another 20 years or so?

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