Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +41

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 179K v 172K. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2157 close, dipped down to 2153 in the opening minutes, then drifted up into the afternoon. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2164 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gainedΒ 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.60, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.

The market opened lower today, dipped down to SPX 2153, then rebounded and remained positive for the rest of the day. Looks like consolidation after yesterday’s decline. With the market now deviating from the 2-day Int. ii wave pattern, today is the second day and it does not look like it is over yet, it could stretch out into Friday’s payrolls report. Still see support in the 2131 pivot range, and expecting a positive divergence at theΒ lower lows. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum spent the entire day around neutral then hit overbought at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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99 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Kisshu2 says:

    hey freddie looks like a deep wave two retrace on wu today I’m long at the bottom today did you have targets in mind for the long ride?
    thanks tony.

  2. Tough market. above 2059 I will be neutral tomorrow. Good luck al

  3. Page says:

    Sold long Oil position now I am shorting it πŸ˜€

  4. fionamargaret says:

    About 25 upside on TLT…..then the bond bull will have had its blow off top…..end x

  5. phil1247 says:

    took profits on UCO bot this am

    short entry hit and initial long target hit

    no shorts yet

  6. gtoptions says:

    Tony, does anyone in the group think that SPX 1992~2178 completed Minor 1?
    Pattern from 7/20 looks like that long drawn out Primary 2 we just had. πŸ˜‰

  7. one more little push and the buy the dip crowd will cause the bears to cover and 2180 here we come. happens all the time. spxu down 6 cents with sp 500 up .25 hard to be a bear

  8. I guess I’m asking questions today.Have one for Mr C,farther down…now one for John Ariella,who said we had a failed fifth:As with all the bearish charts that have been reversed since February–what could possibly have caused this to happen?Nothing nefarious,I’m sure.

    • John Arella says:

      Hi Learnedmylesson25

      I follow the Monthly MACD for direction so was bearish since last year because it turned down but it did not go as low as it did in 2000 and 2007. Now the monthly Macd is turning up so from now on i will be bullish. Yesterday i saw a failure on the futures for the 5 hour chart so now I am bullish for the next few weeks

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY Symmetry into WPP. Probably a chop down to retest low.

  10. Jim Guthery says:

    Anyone see another 10% drop coming? I think it’s coming, late August or September. At least that is how big money is aligned.

  11. stmro says:

    Well stopped myself out. Widely expected easing from BOE supplying tailwinds to stocks. Back into the range we go.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Can’t believe this could be the end of the pb already. Seriously bullish!

  13. Hi,Thanks Tony
    please,i didn’t understand that green “C” in WTIC followed by a black “a”
    what are you expecting ahead?another corrective blue “ABC”?

  14. NEWBIE says:

    My thoughts regarding the masses expecting a move to 2200+

  15. stormchaser80 says:

    Today was the second day in a row for a negative tick on my SPX Technicals Model. Note here that the model has failed to make a new high for 2016, with a longer negative divergence compared to SPX than seen in 2007!!

  16. John Arella says:

    I count a 5th wave failure on the s&p 500 futures so that means there should be a very strong upside thrust for the next few weeks. Same happened on June 27th so expect a strong August thrust :). I figure minimum of 150 SPX point rise. Enjoy πŸ˜‰

  17. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Ndx entry (hourly futures chart) –

  18. Dow ripped at the close, was down a few points in the final hour, then closed up 41, sp up 6.7. Seems bullish to me. With Bank of England on deck tomorrow, I’m sure futures are going to rip higher in anticipation of rate cuts and bond buying. So the Bulls will get there fix with new QE. On to Int 5 and probably 2200 by Friday.

  19. Bulkowski’s weekly I think is pretty interesting(and the only one of his I pay attention to…lol)
    “On Monday, 31% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
    A week ago, it was 32%.
    The fewest was 30% on 07/29/2016.
    And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.”

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #COPPER by

    • CampFreddie says:

      Have to disagree with you here boraq. I have been watching copper, and I am looking for a decent bear-trap set-up here to get long. Gl.

      • bouraq says:

        Hi CF. Anything is possible but this one looks bearish to me. Hence, I’m short from 220. A drop below 215 would be great.

  21. torehund says:

    “The heavy man usually hit the hardest”
    Looking at the Macds in different time-frames: the Monthly looks about ready to cross (and by appreciating the narrow eye of the hoock itself it will start to manifest in a not too distant future).
    Weekly Madc lines are comfortably and far above the zero lines, not threatening to create an upheaval by dipping a bit.
    60 min Macd lines are just into the negative which if trajectory furthered may create some selling-pressure. However the decline in the Macd lines has been a reluctant dive, and may very well emerge supra-zero in just a little while.
    Putting your money on the monthly macd golden cross to appear be rewarding, its still the largest of the dominoes.

  22. fotis2 says:

    Great stuff thanks Tony Still a student when it comes to waves does this look right?

  23. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. We have back to back minor energy waves hitting tomorrow and Friday so would expect equity to head back down. Gold is right back at the all important trend line today.

  24. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al.

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