Monday update

SHORT TERM: new high then pullback, DOW -28

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, but started to pullback right after the DAX opened. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2174, pulled back to 2168, and then started to rally. At 10am ISM was reported lower: 52.6 v 53.2, and Construction spending was reported lower: -0.8% v -0.6%. Around 10:30 the SPX hit a new high at 2178 and then started to pullback again. The pullback continued until 12:30 when the SPX hit 2166. Then after a bounce to SPX 2172 by 2pm, the market dipped to 2167 by 3:30, then the market closed at 2171.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude dropped $1.60, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE at 8:30, then monthly Auto sales.

The market opened unchanged today, pulled back, then made a marginal new high at SPX 2178. After that it pulled back for the rest of the day. As noted over the weekend, the minimum target for Minor 5/Int. iii is SPX 2180 +/- 2 points. That was hit this morning. If Int. three has completed we would expect the SPX to drop to 2159 to confirm Int. iv is underway. Then support for Int. iv would be in the 2131 pivot range. If the market holds above SPX 2159 and starts making new highs. Then the recent action is only waves 1 and 2 of Minor wave 5. Either way still expecting higher prices before this uptrend ends. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum displayed another negative divergence at today’s new high. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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85 Responses to Monday update

  1. could be all she wrote for the bears. 30 point pull back

  2. Bought 214 SPY PUTS. Expect the drop to continue till we hit 2120-2135. Most retraces after such a strong spike move to new highs have an equally sharp but short lived drop before resuming the BULL. Trying to capture both sides here.

  3. phil1247 says:


    in extension shorts

    looks like collapse scenario with no bounce…..yet

    next target 2137

    • phil1247 says:

      bearish below 2151 es
      which is the .618 resistance level of the extension short

      interestingly…the failed extension long support level is ……..


  4. mcgcapital says:

    Seeing this as an ABC down, with A to bottom later today or tomorrow in the 2140 spx and 6600 ftse area. Then a tradable bounce into Thursday with more QE coming from the Bank of England before more selling.

  5. H D says:

    Nice pivot Tony. 2 144 will be the -34

    • H D says:

      just an observation on NYA, I don’t follow it closely but last August it rallied into Nov, A, and has now rallied near perfect 1.618 that rally from January low, C.

  6. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: I have no access to posting screen shots at the moment but either DAX turn around her 10140 or it will test 9 900. FWIW I am expecting the latter.

  7. magnus1234 says:

    I must say that this fora has improved considerably. Let’s keep it this way. Thanks Tony. Well done!

  8. stmro says:

    Yawn. Even the corrections are boring. No volatility at all and very little participation. Unless volume picks up towards end of day there’s a real chance this is a false break of 2160.

  9. phil1247 says:


    short traded this am 40.85

    target just hit at 39.38

    Page … tried to warn you … hope you arent long

  10. Normal retrace from huge rally. Should hold between 2035 and 2020 on SPX. Expect no more than a 2 to 3 day drop. Load up when it hits these targets. The economic data keeps humming along. Been waiting a long while for a play. I find it strange that no matter how high or how long the rally lasts every single retrace is seen as the end of the world for the bears. I guess a 20 percent run since February is just a normal fake out breakout.

  11. DXY broke big support at 95.50.If no Fed jawboning,next stop 93.August is here.

  12. phil1247 says:


    extension long has failed

    look for immediate collapse or bounce then collapse

    also es looks like ending diag w throwover
    ..maybe bounce to lower wedge line at 2156 before collapse?

  13. purplember says:

    shorting oil (DWTI ) with every rally was worked thus far. not sure what the Intermediate bottom is $35?

  14. purplember says:

    shorting oil (DWTI) with every rally has worked thus far. not sure of the intermediate bottom in oil $35?

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Oil stocks = ugly

    CVX – broken channel:

    RDS.A – broken channel:

    XOM – channel about to break?:

  16. captbara says:

    Ok, now we will finally get NYMO < lower BB.

  17. mtu MTU says:

    [1050am] SPX update-
    As discussed yesterday, a breach of 2159.07 brings the blue 4-flat and even the red 5-top in play. See updated chart.

  18. cyanus66 says:

    Obligatory bounce here.
    2155 is the 1.271 ext of the June highs-lows.
    This also demonstrates that the algos are certainly aware of the 1.618 ext, at 2200.
    Among other things …🙂

  19. scottycj1 says:

    Just got the Unemployment Report from Mr Beeks….. why Randolph ….its better than we expected….instruct Mr Valentine to buy with both hands.

  20. Battle of 2159 quickly broken thanks to DAX pressure.-div worked so far.We all know how these 2 point penetrations of critical support go.Fake out and hard reversal .But it’s a start…lol.

  21. Tony Jordan says:

    What goes up must come down. 70% retrace in 6 months. From one extreme now enroute to another.

  22. NEWBIE says:

    The bell rang at the top but nobody was listening.

  23. phil1247 says:



    tried to warn that bonds were about to blow up weeks ago

    hanging by a fingernail from all out collapse

    hope you didnt get trapped

  24. captbara says:

    USD do or die here.

  25. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failed at WR1 @ 217.49
    Support at WS1/S2 @ 216.03/215.57
    Possible Test of MPP @ 213.91
    GL All

  26. CampFreddie says:

    Its a shame we appear to have lost Aamicheal, Fish on hook and Wanderer,(and some others).
    I thought they made some useful, interesting and sometimes very amusing contributions.
    Maybe they will come back after further contemplation. Glta.

    • SPYtrader says:

      CF, I would also like to know if Aam was stopped out again on his short position and if he initiated the short position or if his outlook has changed. I am long from 6-29 but feeling bearish.

  27. pete8675309 says:

    Tony, just wanted to thank you for the great work that you do providing this website for all to view. Appreciate you cleaning it up to; there’s a lot of intelligent charts and thought provoking commentary on here. I try not to post very often because personal opinions, ego and bias are worthless. My last post suggested “selling the news” during the Brexit vote, been amazed at the continued strength that followed those 2 down days. Is everyone chasing yield to the safest port in the world? What do you gain if stocks or bonds fall a few percent, or the unanticipated 5, 10, 20 or even 50 percent. I now find it interesting and coincidental, perhaps convenient that we’re starting a seasonally weak period for the market and all the pundits are suggesting a pullback: Gundlach suggests selling everything Peter Broockvar calling the markets “very dangerous” Goldman suggests selling now and ultra bull Tom Lee is expecting a pullback in August. It seems too easy; even Tom McClellan posted this on July 22 about SPY shares showing “excessive bullish sentiment” Perhaps they should all stay long and strong with Camp Freddie…
    Tony, I also wanted to thank you for this weekend’s special gold post, plan to follow your gold charts. Time will tell if this is a bear market retrace, but I look for at least 1460-80, near 50% retracement if it is (resistance is already here at 1360-80, approaching the 2011-2015 38% retrace). IMO, there’s unlimited upside in a new bull market scenario. In this era of CB NIRP and helicopter money, gold is becoming the defacto world currency. The “tell” was China fixing gold to their local currency renminbi. They’re hoarding gold along with other big/smart money. I’m currently long the miners GDX and NUGT and took a position in TZA last Friday (I’m usually a little early). As everyone should know, do your own due diligence, trade what you know and what’s in front of you and use tight stops, cheers! Thanks again Tony, keep up the great work!

  28. Praveen Vishnu Shamain says:

    Is anybody keeping an eye on TED Spread (US Treasury Euro Dollar Spread, $TED)? Last week it touched nearly 4 years high of 0.536. Its recent high of 0.4647 coincided with SPX falling from 21xx levels to 18xx levels in January/February 2016. History repeats?

    • What do you think?I heard Janet Yellen used to be involved with Ted,but
      had an amicable separation(as she has with all bearish indicators).But I do like Bulkowski’s percentage of stocks in bear markets,which are near last May’s lows.After that the bottom fell out last year.

  29. cosmos77 says:

    Thanks Tony and all for the market comments.
    This article just posted by Schaeffer Investment Research.

    Rare signal shows SPX returns are positive when NAAIM Tops 100.
    It’s been a record-setting month for U.S. stocks, with all three major indexes notching all-time or annual highs. While stocks have taken a breather this week, amid an onslaught of quarterly earnings reports and uninspiring economic data, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is only sitting about 10 points below its July 20 record peak of 2,175.63 — and a rare signal that just went off in the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure index suggests more highs could be on the horizon.

    The NAAIM sentiment reading jumped to 101.2 on July 27 — its loftiest perch since late 2013 — and the third highest reading on record. The peak reading of 104.3 occurred on January 30, 2013, when the SPX reclaimed its footing atop 1,500 for the first time since the financial crisis. The second-highest reading of 101.5 occurred on November 27, 2013, when the SPX topped 1,800 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made its first foray north of 16,000. As a point of comparison, the average NAAIM reading since its inception is 58.7.

    So what does this rare signal mean for the broader equities market going forward? According to Schaeffer’s Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal, while the immediate returns are fairly lackluster, the SPX has historically outperformed when looking at intermediate and longer-term time frames.

    Granted the sample size is very small, the S&P 500 has averaged a one-month gain of 1.5% following this signal — and was positive both times — compared to an anytime 21-day return since 2013 of 0.9%. Looking out one year, the SPX again was positive both times following the signal, averaging a gain of 16.9%. The anytime return for this time period is a much slimmer 9%, with the S&P 500 positive just 76% of the time.
    I am unable to post the table showing the actual returns for the above periods, my apologies.

  30. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. IWM still stuck in an upward ominous looking channel. Gold kissing resistance, oil downpours continue. Bonds seemed most affected to the energy date today with downward spike.
    Details at

  31. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD by

  32. rd3777 says:

    My target for the end of wave [Z] in the NDX is 4902 and will probably last till august 15 to the 21st…this is a 4 day chart time frame. No doubt a bizarre ending pattern…CB’s no not what they do…. Thanks Tony

  33. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, appreciated OEW analysis.

  34. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    The Dow made a lower low today, indicating that the pullback did not end last week. SPX is producing interesting wave structures (Chart 1). A breach of 2159.07 increases the likelihood of the blue 4-flat (and even the red 5-top).

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