SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -19
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +5.2% v +5.4%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2168 close, rose to 2174 in the opening minutes, then started to pullback. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 97.3 v 98.0, and New home sales were reported higher: 592K v 551K. The pullback continued to just past 11am when the SPX hit Thursday’s low at SPX 2160. The SPX then rallied to 2169 around noon, pulled back to 2162 just past 2pm, and ended the day at 2169.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods at 8:30, Pending home sales at 10am, then the FED’s FOMC statement at 2pm.
The market opened slightly higher today, rallied to within two points of the all time high, then pulled back to Thursday’s SPX 2160 low. A complex Minor wave 4 flat, following Wednesday’s Minor 3 SPX 2176 high? At the low the market set up a positive short term divergence, rallied to SPX 2169 and ended the day. The market is having a hard time finding a catalyst to break through the 2177 pivot. In fact, for the past nine trading days the market has traded within a 20 point, (1%), range. Certainly enough time to work off the overbought condition after a 100 point rally. FOMC tomorrow, Q2 GDP and BOJ on Friday, might be enough to get this uptrend moving again. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend