Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then consolidation, DOW +10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported positive: 0.6 v  6.0, Retail sales were higher: 0.6% v 0.5%, and the CPI was reported unchanged at 0.2%. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: 0.6 v -0.4, as was Capacity utilization: 75.4% v 74.9%. The market opened at the high for the day SPX 2169, then started to pullback. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: 0.2% v 0.1%, and Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 89.5 v 93.5. The pullback continued until about 12:30 when the SPX hit 2156. Then it tried to rally. By 3:30 the SPX hit 2163, then dipped to end the week at 2162.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.1%. Bonds dropped 15 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Today the Q2 GDP est. was reported higher: 2.4% v 2.3%.

The market opened higher today, hit yesterday’s SPX 2169 high then had its biggest pullback of the week. We can count an odd looking five waves up from SPX 2089: 2156-2146-2169-2159-2169. As you can see the current pullback is larger than the two previous pullbacks, and this decline at SPX 2156 has already dropped below the 2159 low. This suggests Minor 3 could have completed at SPX 2169, and a possible 20+ point decline is underway for Minor 4. Thus far the decline is 13 points. With short term momentum hitting oversold after the negative divergence at SPX 2169, the market could set up a positive divergence Minor 4 with a further decline. Giving a complete summary of the last several years in the weekend update. Kind of a recap of where we have been and where we are now. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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