quick update: Nikkei and Yen

On Friday the Yen hit our long term target of par (100).

A declining C wave should begin shortly to resume its bear market.


While the Yen was rallying for one year, the Nikkei was also declining in what looks like a seven wave, double bottom Primary wave IV. A declining Yen should be a catalyst for a rising Primary V in the Nikkei over the long term.


An interesting setup in what lately appears to be a currency driven equity market. This is not a trade recommendation. It is simply an observation of two inversely related assets, nearing potential long term wave formation reversals. The charts of both assets are posted on page 7 (NIKK) and page 14 (JPY) on the stock charts link: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp.

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in selected charts, special report and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

28 Responses to quick update: Nikkei and Yen

  1. tony caldaro says:

    Until further notice the comment section will be shut down.
    If you have a question you can email me directly at caldaro@msn.com

  2. torehund says:

    Tony you have IV designated to the Nikkei bottom. We have 2 large waves up from bottom (starting when Abe initiated the print mania late 2012, and Japan didnt slide beneath the continental shelf).
    If it makes another wave at the magnitude of the 2 former its a Complex 3, and justifiable as an end structure as a 5 too.
    But isnt the Nikkeis 2 waves up+ rertrace worthy a cycle wave 2 bottom too, until invalidated.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Both corrections (2011 and 2016) were just under 30%.
      Neither qualifies for a Cycle degree bear market

      • torehund says:

        Thanks for replying. Lots of triggers in the currency shuffling to produce big swings like you are anticipating.
        Its a bit scary looking at my own currency NOK, its currently 8,5 to the USD, could go to 16,66 and then next level is the ultra-scary 50. Looking at the currency smouldering in South America, latest spreading now to Cuba, Europe Next…Its a wildfire.

  3. 123 abc says:

    Outstandingly on cue Tony, the Nikkei225 is up 500+ points (3.5%) —a most excellently timed OEW post, superb analysis !

  4. skmcobra says:

    Really…a Primary B wave going higher than Primary 5 finished? I put zero confidence in this count. That doesn’t even fit Elliott Wave Theory.

  5. torehund says:

    Interesting relationship Tony, here we go Nikkei retest of 38 000 and the Yen in fiat-territory. If C euqals A there is a monster dive ahead.
    Just hope the politicians and state leaders with the help of an understanding population can accomplish to cope..

  6. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony, great observations, always enjoy these OEW segments. If possible, mark this post with the “special report” tag so that is appears under the other treasure archives as follows:


  7. fotis2 says:

    Much appreciated thanks for the update Tony.

  8. captbara says:

    B is not done on yen, only (a) of B. (b) of B should go back to 80s.

  9. Now my point of view is the $XJY weekly is in a cup and handle,with the handle probably retracing down to 94ish and then up to 120.If the handle doesn’t stop where it should,then it would be a failure and you would be correct long term.

  10. You have right to disagree!

    Interesting speech!

  11. tony caldaro says:

    The currencies have followed their cyclical patterns quite well.
    Very few thought Cable would break 30 year support.
    Waiting for the EUR to get thumped next.

  12. fishonhook says:

    If you have the time and inclination a similar review of the SSEC would be helpful, especially as you recently changed that count.

    • tony caldaro says:

      updating from downtrend to uptrend is not a change of count
      it is a trend change, happens all the time

    • tony caldaro says:

      the SSEC is a basket case index
      rallies for 2 years, then goes down for 2-4 years
      acts more like a commodity than an equity market

      • fishonhook says:

        Maybe you forgot the change though I have been following very carefully as it directed some of my trading. the best trades are C waves down but it never came.

        Look at this chart
        092SSEC – Daily HLC Bars, Wide (700)

        You had B were A now is at the April highs. You showed 3 waves up and then the start of C and hence labelled it a downtrend.

        Then you suddenly changed the B to an A with B on-going (currently C of B) and flipped to an uptrend

        in fact the longer term chart below stills hows your old labelling! With B done. A of C done, B of C almost done and C of C to start.

        I guess the B went up too high and so you changed you count and the downtrend to an uptrend. Maybe an up-date on this would clear the confusion of what you mean.

        • nsteve24 says:

          true, trends change all the time, but calling them after they occur is like calling the winner of a game after the game is over. it’s not forecasting or modeling it’s reporting something after it occurs and is apparent to all.

          • tony caldaro says:

            We can anticipate trend changes, which we do at times.
            But it is not a medium trend until OEW confirms it.
            OEW was designed to track markets, not forecast them.

            • fishonhook says:

              “OEW was designed to track markets, not forecast them.”

              And there you have the crux of it. When I first came here a few years I thought, erroneously that there was some predictive power and so traded on that basis. I won some and lost some, and now see that it was clearly just chance and OEW and EW for that matter all TA has very little ability to forecast what will happen but says what did happen (maybe , until it is revised).

              Took me a long time to learn that and a great deal of money over the last few months

              • Page says:

                Fish… come out of the bitching fish tank and learn to read … here’s what Tony is saying:

                “This is not a trade recommendation. It is simply an observation of two inversely related assets, nearing potential long term wave formation reversals.”

            • From the OEW Tutoring section, February 2016.

              “OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave within bull and bear markets quantitatively. With this approach one could historically analyze any market to define its exact wave structure, and determine what the past is projecting about the future.”

        • tony caldaro says:

          subdivisions occur all the time

  13. alexhartley1 says:

    Not the Nikkei trade but the currency one.

  14. alexhartley1 says:

    Thanks Tony. Very useful info. I’ve had my eye on it for a while.

Comments are closed.