weekend update


Nearly a record week. The week started off after the 4th of July holiday with the SPX at 2103. After two gap down openings to start the week on Tuesday/Wednesday the market traded down to SPX 2074 by early Wednesday. After that the market rallied for the rest of the week, hitting SPX 2132 late Friday, the highest level since July 2015, and ended the week at 2130. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.0%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: factory orders, the ADP, the Q2 GDP est., plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM  services, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FED’s beige book, Industrial production and Retail sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: nearly uptrend

Last week we noted a WROC signal, suggesting an uptrend confirmation would occur shortly. It occurred this week. During the week we also shifted the NYSE charts to the first page of the blog charts, as that count was gaining more traction and this makes it easier to review. With this week’s uptrend confirmations in the SPX/DOW it is now highly likely these indices will be making all time new highs soon. The NDX/NAZ/NYSE continue to lag somewhat. New highs in the SPX/DOW suggest, under the irregular B wave scenario, that the SPX 1810 low in February ended Primary A, and not Major A. Therefore a Primary B irregular top has been underway. The maximum upside potential for Primary B would be about SPX 2300. At this level Primary B equals 1.618 Primary A.


The NYSE count continues to suggest the market is currently in Primary V from the 2009 low. This is quite a popular count among the EW crowd, as the chart clearly looks like four waves complete, and a fifth underway. Our OEW model even quantifies this NYSE count. However, it does not quantify it for the SPX, DOW, NDX or NAZ. This is the reason we have been using the term “bifurcated market”. Nevertheless both counts suggest the market should be making all time new highs soon. How far it goes depends upon this uptrend and the downtrend that follows. As a result we are not putting a bullish remark in the long term status. A 10% maximum advance under the irregular B scenario does not seem at all that bullish. This may change depending upon what unfolds in the coming weeks and months.


MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

As noted earlier our WROC signal triggered last week, and this week the uptrend was confirmed. We have been debating the characteristics of the previous uptrend: SPX 1810-2111 for weeks. Bullish/bearish, impulsive/corrective, and have maintained a corrective count. We have decided, however, to go with an impulsive count since this uptrend clearly looks like it is impulsing too. The charts have been updated, but this does not make much difference in the overall count. Except the tracking of the current uptrend.


With Major A now posted at SPX 2111, and Major B at SPX 1992, we can calculate two potential targets for Major wave C. At SPX 2178 Major C = 0.618 Major A, and at SPX 2293 Major C equals Major A. Our maximum upside target. Upside targets for the NYSE are posted on the weekly chart. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots.


After completing a downtrend low at SPX 1992 the market rallied post-Brexit to SPX 2109. We have labeled this Intermediate wave i. The pullback that followed this week to SPX 2074 is labeled Int. ii. Intermediate wave iii is currently underway and is already subdividing. The first rally was to SPX 2109, then a pullback to SPX 2089, and on Friday a rally to SPX 2132. We will await further market activity before labeling these waves. But so far it looks like Minors 1-2-3.


Since the market ended the week quite overbought short term, we would expect a some sort of pullback early next week. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.7%.

European markets were also mostly lower losing 1.2%

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 1.1%.

The DJ World index ended the week flat.


Crude is in a downtrend and lost 8.4% on the week.

Gold continues to uptrend and gained 1.7% on the week.

The USD also continues to uptrend and gained 0.6% on the week.

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week. The long term bonds also had some significant events this week. The 10YR yield hit an all time low at 1.336%. The previous low was 1.394% in 2012. The 30YR yield hit a low for the week at 2.102%. Its all time low occurred in the year 1946 when it hit 2.03%. When the 30YR hits that level we will start looking for an end to the 35 year Bond bull market. In case you didn’t pick that up. The all time low occurred in 1946, the high in 1981, and the current low 2016. Thirty-five years of rising yields, and now 35 years of declining yields.


Tuesday: Wholesale inventories. Wednesday: Export/Import prices, the FED’s beige book and the Treasury deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and the PPI. Friday: the NY FED, Retail sales, the CPI, Capacity Utilization, Business inventories and Consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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361 Responses to weekend update

  1. tony caldaro says:

    Until further notice the comment section will be shut down.
    If you have a question you can email me directly at caldaro@msn.commailto:caldaro@msn.com

  2. phil1247 says:

    bought SCO 90.65

  3. mjtplayer says:

    New ATH on the SPX – congrats to the bulls.

    DOW is just over 100pts away from its ATH, that’s now the question: will the DOW join?

  4. SP500 2137 cash .. welcome to Primary V .. validated.

  5. phil1247 says:



    UPDATE to weekend chart

    since the 2131 target was not blown out to the upside

    we do not have a more aggressive extension long in force at this time

    so we take the anchor from which we drew the last extension long ( 2102)
    and extend that up to the high

    the new target of this extension is 2140 /ES

    BULLISH above 2114 now…..( the .618 support of the new extension long)

    no decline is possible

    until 2114 is violated

  6. phil1247 says:

    sold SLV 19.29

    1929?? an omen ??

  7. Page says:

    Long Oil/SPX and short Gold/miners.

    • phil1247 says:


      here is an update of chart posted over the weekend

      2131 target hit at 10 pm

      new targets coming up

      still in extension longs ……

      no decline is possible until the extension long fails

      looking for long entries

  8. For anyone following the overnight futures, there is a clear triangle in the ES, already proven, which likely bodes as a continuation higher. For this reason, my probe of 1 ES short @ 2020, was called in at 2026.50 for a -$325. The only purpose for the probe was to protect against any major adverse weekend occurrences.

    ES 09-16 (30 Min)  7_11_2016 TC


  9. vivelaamo says:

    I’ve gone long Japenese And European markets. They sold off the most so hopefully more potential upside. Still short US markets but expect to get stopped out later at ATH’s. Morale of the story – just keep buying the F dips!!!

    • mjtplayer says:

      Money is fleeing these parts of the world and coming to the US. NIRP is destroying the banks and poor economic policy (high taxes, draconian regulations) is also helping to destroy the economy in Europe and Japan, this is why capital is going into gov’t bonds with 0% or negative yields and coming to the US bidding-up stocks, Treasuries and the Dollar. This is also a major reason the S&P is at ATH’s, but no other market in the world is anywhere close.

      This will continue, stocks in these markets and currencies (especially the Euro) will continue to fall as these countries implode.

  10. torehund says:

    They are all collected in Poland (wasting public cash), waiting for their respective economies to implode.
    Maybe they will blame Russia, the loner is always the one to blame, regardless 🙂

  11. stmro says:

    Japan promised more stimulus last night. Hate to say this but i will hold my nose and buy if we close above ATH today.

    • vivelaamo says:

      I will be shocked if we don’t close above ATH today. Seems like Market stimulus can go on forever. The rich need to stay rich I guess.

      • stmro says:

        Well many charts that i track that appeared to be on the verge of breakdown last week have now recovered. In particular:

        USD/JPY has recovered past 1.01
        European equities have bounced off Brexit lows

        Its still a mixed picture right now, but its increasingly looking like the CBs have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

        One day these clowns will face the consequences for sowing a generation of inequality, but i guess it wont be soon.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Newbie, you have been waiting for the collapse all year now but the market always moved back up. Your last chance chance to make real money on the short side was Brexit. Why are you such a permabear ? To leave these recent huge rallies on the table is not understandable. Always hoping for the big crash is not trading. And when there is a big sell off you are missing it I assume. Brexit was the big chance to make you wealthy as a short seller. But you are still waiting for the big miracle (spx down 200 points in one day ?)

  12. Jack Sparrow says:

    Fiona-hope all well at your end- you seem awfully quiet

    • fionamargaret says:

      …please check things are ok with Mat – I noticed he wrote you for advice on friday .
      I have something from my paid service that is somewhat like your drawing, but is more bearish…xx

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        good to hear from you. Mat will be fine. 60 points drawdown wont make him sweat- he made about 200 points during brexit fiasco.

        • fionamargaret says:

          ….remember I go with my patterns, but your stuff adds to it. Oil is still not to be trusted – no defined pattern …42 (?) I have not had time to look at anything yet. Just make sure Mat is fine..xxx

  13. Jack Sparrow says:

    Ajay to answer your question-in futures cash equivalent the move from 1990 seems like an ED which will be the fifth wave of the move from 1810. In ED itself we are in the 3rd wave right now. first wave was around 2110.

      • .. just a suggestion .. one shouldn’t ‘assume’ an E-D until (4) overlaps (1). It may prove out exactly as you have drawn it, but the ‘central’ characteristic of a diagonal is the 4-to-1 overlap which isn’t evident above yet. As you have it drawn, it can still be an impulsing C wave, for example (of a larger diagonal).

      • ajaysinghi says:

        btw, this is interesting. I will look into it. Many thanks. If right, this will be perfect.

      • ajaysinghi says:

        Quite impressive. Makes sense and explains why the structure from 1990 didn’t seem right.

        Nice work and thanks for the reply. It really helped.

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      if you belong to bearish camp that would be the ED of C, A was from 1810 to 210 and B was down to 1990

    • ajaysinghi says:

      Thank. My count are different. will be clear if we are rangebound this week.

  14. Pingback: Tickers – Value Trap or Tactical

  15. John Arella says:

    SPX for tomorrow

    1810 – 2111 1 of p5

    2111 – 1991 2 (a b c flat) of P5

    1991 – 2108 (1) of 3
    2108 – 2074 (a)
    2074 – 2109 (b)
    2109 – 2089 (c) (abc) 2 of 3
    2089 – 2145 3 of 3 minor 1 expect 15-20 spx points in morning for 1st of 3 of 3 ( for Monday)
    2145-2115 minor 2 of 3 of 3
    2115 – 2204 or 2248 for minor 3 of 3


  16. fotis2 says:

    Excellent Tony! Nikkei up 3.5% worth its weight in gold that quick update!

  17. NEWBIE says:

    Gold and Silver up and up and up, all time highs on the futures and possibly on the indices is going to be short lived!

  18. NEWBIE says:

    Patiently waiting for the news or event that starts the collapse of the stock market. This event is imminent as the banking cartel has lost control of of gold and silver.

    • Jimmy Porter says:

      you’re going to need to be patient. it’s not going to happen anytime soon newbie. all brexit did was allow the patient bulls to get in

      • vivelaamo says:

        And another reason for further stimulus. In my opinion will see weeks of choppiness before a fall if there is to be one. That’s what last year suggests. At the moment it’s pure BTD’s times.

  19. SPYtrader says:

    I miss Bud already…..,,,

  20. Jack Sparrow says:

    ok with reference to my summary below and the observation about Bud- my original comment stands rescinded – Bud has again said his temporary yet perpetual farewell

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      seems like it was CB who drove him away this time around

      • CB says:

        Sparrow, same thing …stop the drama….nobody cares…it’s a waste of everyone’s time.

        • drwarmington says:

          Nobody cares, but just know, that he is an old timer here and I can tell you that he just wants your money. Just beware, thats all. Adios Amigo

  21. Futures are flat/slightly negative.

  22. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  23. https://stockreversalspremium.com/2016/07/10/weekly-sp-500-gold-oil-forecast-report-and-more/

    Weekly forecast report includes sp500 gold oil etc…

    Major 3 of primary 5 from 1991

  24. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: Not a Lot to Say (SPX, RUT, HUI)

  25. phil1247 says:


    if you do start charging people
    who are advertising their fee based services here for free..

    do you think that an introductory period of

    buy one line …..

    get one line free……

    limited time only ……
    ……..sale ends august 30th…….

    might be a good idea ?? 🙂

    • CB says:

      🙂 I don’t think Bud is selling anything.. He prolly just wants to have more email amigos 🙂

      • drwarmington says:

        Don’t count on that.

        • CB says:

          So you think there is a chance, D,oc? 🙂
          OK, it looks like, maybe, I need to heed our Doctor’s advice here..(my mother was a doctor and doctors are always right, always 🙂

      • bud67 says:

        Well…..speaking of an “old timer” I seem to recall.

        Quite wrong about Bud. Old yes, but knows when
        he is not wanted CB and others. So, I’am signing off.
        CB – may all your investment wisdom, not to come from the
        seat of your pants…or head ..Bye Bye..

        • CB says:

          Bud, stop the drama.. nobody has said anything remotely similar to what you’re claiming. It’s a free country and nobody can tell you what to do. I was saying you’re not selling anything…and that’s the truth as far as I can tell.
          Take care, Bud.

  26. phil1247 says:



    GOLD did what it had to do friday to within 1 dollar

    the june 24 spike gave you a perfect 50% retrace to buy at 1307 ( arrow)

    a nice 5 day rally still could not take it to target at 1388
    where i wanted to sell
    and discussed this with learnedmylesson…….
    the close thursday below the top of spike warned of coming trouble

    NFP day gave the perfect excuse for gold to sell off but where did it stop?
    within 1 dollar of .618 support of the next traditional measured move at 1335 ( arrow)

    now that both targets are confirmed i want to sell half near 1390 target area

    and then wait to see if we can get extension longs going or not

    also reviewed gold in multiple currencies
    and it is way ahead of the rally priced in dollars

    THAT is the key to a true gold bull market ….
    that it goes up
    not just because of dollar weakness
    but is rising in many other currencies as well

    • Agree with your last 4 lines Phil about gold,however in my analyzing where gold (and GDX)might go, $XJY has been the fuel behind golds rise.If we get a correction in $XJY and gold doesn’t correct(I think it will),gold is unstoppable then.

    • CB says:

      Agree with you, Dr. Phil (LT trend). One of the reasons?… gov. bond yields..
      Some analysts have always expected that the Japanese “disease” would spread; we just needed a good name for it… now we have it ..

      • As I posted on the Yen update by Mr C,with -div on $XJY,a perfect time for intervention.

      • phil1247 says:


        considering your article …

        does that mean you are buying 30 yr bonds at these levels …

        hoping they go to zero yield ??

        • CB says:

          No, I don’t want to get hurt buying OB stuff…There should be better opportunities to buy when they’re no as OB. I think you’re doing the right thing selling some now..

          • phil1247 says:

            the reason i am selling my 30 yr treasuries now
            is that when i bought them in my 401 k
            coupon bonds were yielding 9 to 9 1/2 % and
            zero coupon treasuries were yielding even more

            i had no reason to sell because retirement was many years away

            i have Robert Prechter to thank
            because he called the 1987 crash
            and he called for further stock crashes
            which scared the heck out of me
            so i just kept loading up my retirement fund
            with 9% bonds..then 8% etc as yields fell.
            i was actually upset when yields fell
            because i was getting less interest
            not really understanding what capital gains were all about at the time

            Bob Prechter ……(that how he signs his notes)
            actually wrote me three handwritten notes
            that were responses to questions you could ask him
            and he would reply to you on a post card….

            i doubt he has time to do that any more …

            so now that i do understand what capital gains are
            i am ready to take them

            nothing bearish about tlt now …but i will trade it like any other hot potato

            and if i am wrong ………..
            uncle sam will share in my pain now ………….
            because i am trading them outside my retirement fund now

            • CB says:

              Good moves, Dr. Phil! 🙂
              So, Prechter has been right about something after all these years…..let’s call him
              Mr. Bonds =)
              Actually, Greenspan has been invested in Treasuries after retiring as well, from what I understand…not a bad deal…

              • phil1247 says:

                believe it or not

                i think the 10 yr can get to the trendlines across the lows

                one is at 1.07%

                the other is at 0.68%

                friday it traded the ext .618 and bounced just like gold did…

                so i am trading bonds from the long side …. via TMF ( triple long )

                with one eye on the exit at all times for when the music stops

                good luck CB…

                till monday

              • CB says:

                Thanks for the heads-up, Doc! Appreciate your insights!

                Enjoy the rest of your weekend & good luck everyone!

            • torehund says:

              Prechter didnt evnvision a market where the market could thrive during a slump in commodities. Thats where he blew it.

        • CB says:

          the bond yield-gold relationship refers to gold as a non-interest-bearing asset class

  27. Jack Sparrow says:

    this is one of weirdest weekends for this blog. street fights going all over on this blog and strange things happening

    -Holly/Gary vs Christine
    – Ajay vs Bud (seems like Bud has decided to become more aggressive and fight rather than using the goodbye forever line but his strange behaviour continues – he first responds to Ajays post and then telsl Ajay that he has Ajay on ignore and doesnt read Ajays posts)
    -Bud vs Christine
    -aah vs the usual crowd ( By now I know more about Aah’s trades of past few years than Aah himself)
    -Bearish camp and Bullish camp both against TC (notice I didnt use the word ‘vs” as TC doesn’t engage back)
    -Fiona extremely quiet and Wanderer giving up

    so i will give up trading -I will just enjoy the soap opera here- its more fun..

    • phil1247 says:

      wasnt wanderer doing these summaries before??

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        yes some here think that wanderer and I are the same… I was compelled to do it this weekend-

        I think TC can make good money from putting ads on this site…the traffic has really gone up…this has become pseudo social/investing site..so potential for ad revenue.

      • CB says:

        lol…indeed, pretty thinly-veiled…
        Dr. Phil you’re very smart 🙂
        But if you become too inquisitive, he’ll prolly call you a policeman =) He must think he’s fancy… he’s even giving TC (free) advice…wow

    • I’m not fighting anyone Jack. I made it clear to Golly that I’m not interested in interacting with her days ago and she’s not getting the message, and is following me around making obnoxious posts in response to general comments I’ve left, trying to engage me When Bud briefly interjected, I respectfully told him what she had been doing and asked him to refrain from getting involved. ANyway, I think now that Golly knows I’m not reading her comments, I think I’ll take aahmichaels advice and ignore her.

    • wanderer says:

      Soap opera it is. Thanks for filling in for me, Pirate Man, while I am disengaged.

    • fotis2 says:

      Now you know why some are here 😉

  28. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  29. bud67 says:

    Brief Last Word for this Weekend.

    I am an investor, in a Bull market usually long. Do
    not see Bear market yet ahead, near term.
    I am spend my time, mostly – timing the SP500 index.
    I am invested, long term in crude oil. The simple reason is.
    Gasoline, is near $2 here. Odd’s thus favor (IMO), investing
    in crude for the long term.

    SP500 – at 2191 roughly, is likely heading higher, yet.
    The Primary W4 low was at 1810. Now , we are into a W3
    up, of a 5 wave movement.

    At SP 2160 – I will begin a slow withdraw from the SP market.
    Should the SP move to 2200 this year, I will likely exit the SP.

    Now – one quesiton about the BoYU indicator. This summer
    I will try to purchase a good machine. Maybe a Lenovo.
    I need to be able to load a couple of Metastock files
    in order ot get the AGET program to work. No, I do
    not purchase data.

    Once the AGET software is up and running. I will consider
    creating a list of folks interested in the BoYu signals. Time
    wise, this could likely be in the fall of 2015. The list will
    start as free, the work up into a small yearly fee.

    My age is nearing 74. Most of my work is free,
    or very low cost. Dollars to pay for data, which I do
    manually right now.

    Okay – that is where I am presently. You all probably
    know my email address bud_67@hotmail.com happy
    to assist if I can. No charge.

    In closing. I am not a guru, and an investor with a perfect
    investment record. I am Not a Trader. That takes a special
    type of person, software and time.


    Bud — thank you Tony, for all you do for the public….

    • phil1247 says:


      if tony actually does start charging
      100 dollars per line for advertising here……….

      you had best condense your posts considerably
      if you go fee based ….

      or it may actually be the…………..


  30. nsteve24 says:

    There have been 8 times when $SPY, $TLT, $GLD all up when payrolls beat estimates. A week later, SPY down 7 times, avg -1.9%

  31. opader says:

    Thank you Tony … Your work and analysis is very much appreciated. My thoughts and plans: http://www.balancetrading.org/

  32. bud67 says:

    Hello….there appears to be, some interest in my market timing work. Like share
    some of my ideas, with you. #1 I look at the “freestockcharts.com” A/D line,
    or T2100. I feel, there is value there. Next, I look at Housing. Using the $HGX
    housing index. in this index – housing made a High, 7/29/05. A Low 3/31/09
    and has recently made a high at 249 on 8/31/15.
    Currently the bollinger bands are 249 to 206, and the last price was 244.
    My view is the housing market advance is slowing considerably. This, may
    suggest that the SP500, while able to sprint higher, in conjunction with the
    HGX index. But – the slowing of the rise suggest a top maybe also forming
    over the next several week.
    SP500 sentiment – appears to me, to be rather higher, Bordering in exceedingly
    Bullish. I understand the sentiment and the logic for a super high priced SP
    yet to come. I’d be a little careful in expanding a long position going forward.
    Bottom Line, SP remains in an up trend, and bullish…for now…end

  33. nsteve24 says:

    June jobs report:
    “The simple fact of the matter is that May and June were massive statistical anomalies. The broad trends tell the tale. Go back to June 2014 and the six-month trend in payrolls is running at a 2.2% annual rate and the three-month trend at 2.4%. A year ago, as of June 2015, the six-month pace was 1.9% and the three-month at 2.2%. Fast forward to today, and the six-month annualized rate is 1.4% and the three-month has slowed all the way down to a 1.2%. This is otherwise known as looking at the big picture.”
    – DR

  34. vivelaamo says:

    USB – They’ve had a shocking year though.

    From a cyclical aspect, we expect the market to move into a minor top projection later this week, which we expect to be the basis for a new down test starting into deeper/later July. In this context, we argue against chasing the SPX on the upside. A break below 2025/2020 would be short term bearish and imply a test of 1960 to 1928.

  35. nsteve24 says:

    When the S&P 500 first hit 2130 back in May 2015, reported LTM earnings were $99.25 per share, and that was already down 6.4% from the cyclical high of $106 per share in September 2014. Thus, stocks were being valued at a nosebleed 21.5X in the face of falling earnings.

    During the four quarters since then, reported LTM earnings have slumped by a further 12.3% to $87 per share. So that brings the “cap rate” to 24.5X earnings that have shrunk by 18% over the last six quarters. Wee!
    – DS

  36. fotis2 says:

    Question to the Bulls: If,as many claim the economy is doing great than how come the Market is now at exactly the same spot it was a year and a half ago?

    • Well, how many of the stocks trading are 100% fully diluted?

      Most stocks traded today, are product of 100% bought deals.

      Plus, given technology computers, cell phones, daily float of shares available to trade, has to be controlled.

    • bud67 says:

      It is, what it is.

      as for the US economy. I have a different approach.

      I look at the traffic in my Tampa, Costco store. I do not
      see, evidence to the contrary – thus – economy is doing
      well. Not an economist, but it is how I measure things.

      Take this board for example. it used to be better.
      We lost S2, and he was a valued contributor of
      “positive” views. thus, when he had a negative
      comment, i (most)< took is seriously.

      So, "fotis2"…this concern is unlike your past
      contributions, which were great.

      I look more at the equity market, and patterns,
      then i do — views of who's bullish, or bearish….


      • fotis2 says:

        Just a question Bud not a statement interested in how people see what the Market is telling us about the economy and not the otherway round.

      • micky says:

        hi Bud, I always find your posts interesting, hence my bewilderment as to what happened to your conviction to be short the market, especially after reminding us a few times of your boyu catching the top a few months ago. If I missed your updating that scenario will you please just recap what made you change your mind and also the boyu,s . Thanks ..and all the best…Micky

        • bud67 says:

          Hey Micy……all good questions. 1st theBoYu is broken. It is supported by the AGET software, which I have had difficulty loading into this $400 machine…soon as I can get a new/better machine, I will get the BoYu back up and running. Using Metastock right now, okay, just not as
          good as the AGET software. I went long 6/27 SP low. been in a hold
          up thru the current high, still long.
          BUY —Nervous, looking like a top maybe forming, so looking for a stochastic sell signal, lots of negative
          stress on the SP, right now. Not sure exactly when the BoYu will be back yet…..stay tuned..

          • micky says:

            very good and well done Bud, is this the first time, after a month, that you mention out of your short and then long? or did you mention it at the time? Thanks!

            • micky says:

              The reason I ask is I am curious why you shorted the first time, and then recently went long again, when you are a long term investor, not a trader. For instance, did you short because the store you mentioned went quiet, and then long because the store went busy again. You know what I mean, fundamental verses technical reasons. Thanks again

            • bud67 says:

              truth is. I have been out of my short position
              for quite sometime. With the help of OEW,
              and my charts. I caught the SP1810 low,
              rather well. Not perfectly, but ok. Looking
              to close my SP long position, very soon.
              Market (SP) appears very overbought right here.
              But, with the P4 low at 1810, think the SP will
              move higher in the near term. With pullbacks
              along the way to a major SP record high…

              • bud67 says:

                It appears, a few head strong people want be out, of this link.
                I am – as of today – out – adious, farewell, goodbye….

    • vivelaamo says:

      Question to the Bears: If,as many claim the economy is doing so poorly than how come the Market is now at exactly the same spot it was a year and a half ago?

      • mcgcapital says:

        Liquidity mainly. The US economy isn’t doing badly on the surface, it’s what’s coming next that’s bearish for stocks. Growth is moderating at the same time that Europe, UK and China are facing structural issues. Sooner or later when the data turns bad, there will be a rush for the exits and this will outweigh the fed keeping rates on hold forever. Obviously if growth and earnings accelerate from here the bears will be proved wrong but the risks by far outweigh the rewards to me.

  37. Hi,thanks Tony
    Crude daily,close out/close in the BB,target in the center


    • Thanks for the look at your BB jungletrader.
      Here’s my $WTIC chart
      Probably violates several counting rules.
      Sorry in advance.

      One TA guy who called the oil top a few years ago in crude is Greg Schnell (stockcharts guy). He got long carefully this past winter. Now is looking for a continued pullback to to $42 (the March 18 high)

      I’m wondering why the $WTIC chart looks different on that date, versus USO
      Any ideas which is a correct representation?

      Thanks to Tony for a great forum.
      And GTLA

  38. Hi Tony,
    It is throwback Saturday.
    Thought it would be interesting to go back a few years and read this post:

    “2000- 2016 Obama Crisis years” are about to conclude and with the election coming , your thoughts are very prescient (the entire post is) and this part is even more interesting :

    “3. this 2010 63 seat gain is occurring near the end of the secular bear market and within 6 years of the expected beginning of the next secular bull market: 2016-2034.

    The political relationships do not end there in the Secular cycle. Nearing the end of a secular bear market the presidency is typically Democratic: Truman 1929-1949, Carter 1967-1982, and Obama 2000-2016. Then nearing the beginning of the next secular bull market the presidency turns Republican. But the president is typically a well known, charismatic, non-professional politician: Eisenhower (a war hero) 1949-1967 and Reagan (an actor) 1982-2000. People want and demand real change, and finally get it. After scanning the political scene for potential 2012 Presidential candidates, that fit this screening. I only came up with only one person: NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg. This is by no means a political endorsement. It’s only a potential possibility based upon the current list of likely candidates and the historical secular cycle. Would be interested in other candidates that would fit the criteria. History repeats itself because cycles constantly reoccur. Best to your trading/investing. ”

    Interested to know your thoughts!



    • tony caldaro says:

      Trump fits the profile
      But is he electable

      • fishonhook says:

        His hair certainly isn’t

      • Jimmy Porter says:

        This caught my attention. I will be honest don’t follow the secular cycles. maybe I should but doing just fine day trading. However, if we are turning to a bull cycle how does that play out since we are very close to the top of this cycle? Seems like it would be the opposite. Especially if this large pullback that will eventually happen could take some time.

  39. hohoho598 says:

    Been saying it all along, the Justice League have my back and the backs of all the bulls. They are concerned with financial stability despite the ranting of bears claiming inflation, wages pressure interest rate rises blah blah. They are always ahead of the curve, and getting better at it with technology improving all the time.
    There will be no recession for a long long time, and I believe the only thing that may trigger it, is a war somewhere, but there is nothing on the horizon yet as long as the US keeps flying drones over potential threats.
    The waves are bogus and the market is using them against all EW users. You need your own system and trade in isolation, without the distraction of other opinions on both sides. Trade trade trade make money, take a hit from time to time, its fun and rewarding. Do you honestly think the successful traders have time to blog post day in day out.
    You have the power within you…GL

  40. For all this bullish talk, keep this in mind—– Tom McClellan, using strictly the 2nd term prez cycle as the guide, thinks July 22 or there abouts will mark the top of this and begin a big decline into an ultimate Oct low. That decline doesn’t need to be a flush down, but those are the timelines.

    We’ll see!

  41. blackjak100 says:

    Just think TC, your analysis was spot on prior to the failed fifth followed by the bear market signal the same day a confirmed Dow theory signal which I believe was the day of 1810 low. I still remember you saying if the first uptrend of P5 fails to make a new high, it will extend. seems exactly spot on now but what do I know???

  42. mcgcapital says:

    I’ve just been on holiday to Greece and read Yanis Varoufakis, the 2015 Greek finance minister’s book ‘And the weak suffer what they must?’. Well worth a read as some interesting points in there. It reinforces my view that when everything plays out the financial markets are going to be a much changed place in 10 years’ time. The central banks are fighting a losing battle trying to keep things elevated. The truth is QE hasn’t worked as intended – inequality has grown substantially as money has poured into Wall Street and the real economy hasn’t benefitted to the same extent. Politics is reflecting this, Brexit is more than likely the start of the end for the EU as a political and monetary union and the working classes globally are realising that they’ve had a raw deal from globalisation. I expect the trend of the last 30 years of capital gaining an ever increasing share of growth over labour to reverse at some point. Given the size of the debts across most developed nations, I think monetisation is inevitable during the next crisis. Trade deficits and surpluses will also have to be regulated at some point. The question is, where do you invest if you believe this is how things will play out? Nowhere is safe so it’s probably best to stay very diversified. I was leaning towards cash being the strongest performer but I’m not sure that currency will hold much value given the policy responses I think will happen. On the longer timeframe, talk of whether 2135 was THE top or whether it will be 2200, 2300 or 2500 are less important. What seems clear to me is that globally we’re ill equipped to ride out another recession. Although recent data is showing we aren’t there yet, the economic cycle is maturing and we probably aren’t that far away from the so-called perma bears’ fears being realised.

  43. ajaysinghi says:

    The rally from 1810 is not P5. SPX making a new high doesn’t prove anything.

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