Nearly a record week. The week started off after the 4th of July holiday with the SPX at 2103. After two gap down openings to start the week on Tuesday/Wednesday the market traded down to SPX 2074 by early Wednesday. After that the market rallied for the rest of the week, hitting SPX 2132 late Friday, the highest level since July 2015, and ended the week at 2130. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.0%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: factory orders, the ADP, the Q2 GDP est., plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM services, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FED’s beige book, Industrial production and Retail sales. Best to your week!
LONG TERM: nearly uptrend
Last week we noted a WROC signal, suggesting an uptrend confirmation would occur shortly. It occurred this week. During the week we also shifted the NYSE charts to the first page of the blog charts, as that count was gaining more traction and this makes it easier to review. With this week’s uptrend confirmations in the SPX/DOW it is now highly likely these indices will be making all time new highs soon. The NDX/NAZ/NYSE continue to lag somewhat. New highs in the SPX/DOW suggest, under the irregular B wave scenario, that the SPX 1810 low in February ended Primary A, and not Major A. Therefore a Primary B irregular top has been underway. The maximum upside potential for Primary B would be about SPX 2300. At this level Primary B equals 1.618 Primary A.
The NYSE count continues to suggest the market is currently in Primary V from the 2009 low. This is quite a popular count among the EW crowd, as the chart clearly looks like four waves complete, and a fifth underway. Our OEW model even quantifies this NYSE count. However, it does not quantify it for the SPX, DOW, NDX or NAZ. This is the reason we have been using the term “bifurcated market”. Nevertheless both counts suggest the market should be making all time new highs soon. How far it goes depends upon this uptrend and the downtrend that follows. As a result we are not putting a bullish remark in the long term status. A 10% maximum advance under the irregular B scenario does not seem at all that bullish. This may change depending upon what unfolds in the coming weeks and months.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
As noted earlier our WROC signal triggered last week, and this week the uptrend was confirmed. We have been debating the characteristics of the previous uptrend: SPX 1810-2111 for weeks. Bullish/bearish, impulsive/corrective, and have maintained a corrective count. We have decided, however, to go with an impulsive count since this uptrend clearly looks like it is impulsing too. The charts have been updated, but this does not make much difference in the overall count. Except the tracking of the current uptrend.
With Major A now posted at SPX 2111, and Major B at SPX 1992, we can calculate two potential targets for Major wave C. At SPX 2178 Major C = 0.618 Major A, and at SPX 2293 Major C equals Major A. Our maximum upside target. Upside targets for the NYSE are posted on the weekly chart. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots.
After completing a downtrend low at SPX 1992 the market rallied post-Brexit to SPX 2109. We have labeled this Intermediate wave i. The pullback that followed this week to SPX 2074 is labeled Int. ii. Intermediate wave iii is currently underway and is already subdividing. The first rally was to SPX 2109, then a pullback to SPX 2089, and on Friday a rally to SPX 2132. We will await further market activity before labeling these waves. But so far it looks like Minors 1-2-3.
Since the market ended the week quite overbought short term, we would expect a some sort of pullback early next week. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Best to your trading!
Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.7%.
European markets were also mostly lower losing 1.2%
The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 1.1%.
The DJ World index ended the week flat.
Crude is in a downtrend and lost 8.4% on the week.
Gold continues to uptrend and gained 1.7% on the week.
The USD also continues to uptrend and gained 0.6% on the week.
Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week. The long term bonds also had some significant events this week. The 10YR yield hit an all time low at 1.336%. The previous low was 1.394% in 2012. The 30YR yield hit a low for the week at 2.102%. Its all time low occurred in the year 1946 when it hit 2.03%. When the 30YR hits that level we will start looking for an end to the 35 year Bond bull market. In case you didn’t pick that up. The all time low occurred in 1946, the high in 1981, and the current low 2016. Thirty-five years of rising yields, and now 35 years of declining yields.
Tuesday: Wholesale inventories. Wednesday: Export/Import prices, the FED’s beige book and the Treasury deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and the PPI. Friday: the NY FED, Retail sales, the CPI, Capacity Utilization, Business inventories and Consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!