Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go day, DOW +251

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and rallied when monthly Payrolls were reported higher at 8:30: 287K v 38K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2113 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2098 yesterday. At 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $18.6B v $13.4B. Also at 3pm the SPX hit 2132, then pulled back to 2127, before closing at 2130.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose 5 cents, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open on a surprising monthly Payrolls report. After about an hour of trading the SPX cleared all the resistance levels noted yesterday. In fact the SPX rallied to its highest level since June 2015. With the WROC signal last week, suggesting an uptrend was underway, and an uptrend confirmation, today looks like a game changing event. Lots to cover in the weekend update, plus some count upgrades. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: nearly uptrend


About tony caldaro

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194 Responses to Friday update

  1. Millan Tomic says:

    TC/TJ, how realistic is we are in a Wave B of a complex expanded flat correction from EW rules specifically alternation between Wave 2 and Wave 4? Essentially, if this plays out this way, then May 2015 to Feb 2016 Primary Wave A (2135-1810), then Feb 2016 into late August/September as Primary Wave B (2290-2335), and then Primary Wave C down into 1Q17 (say 1730). This would pretty much kill most people as this current rise would be taken as Wave 3 of P5 vs Wave C of ABC (as Primary B). Fundamentally, is easy to see how this plays out in terms of triggers (USD/EPS/Trump, etc). Just asking is it possible on the EW rules/guidelines side?

  2. ajaysinghi says:

    Spx likley path from here, 2139-2110-;2176.

    Any sign of weakness this week would mean that 2176 will likely be the peak of this rally.



    • mharrison60 says:

      How soon to your 1990 target or is this off the table now, thanks

      • ajaysinghi says:

        1990 is off the table now as this is not B wave I was expecting before new high.

        First, we need signs of weakness this week(no shorting even in weakness).

        If we see weakness this week, then we buy any decline near 2110 with sl of 2109 for tgt of 2176.

        Final shorting is at 2176, provided, the other conditions are fulfilled, i.e weakness this weak without crossing 2200.

  3. max torbreck says:

    I stopped following this site (daily) several months ago with all the emotion’s & flying accusations which was the best move I made, just didn’t think the world was ready to go into a big bad bear so soon after the GFC and here we are…..
    I’m more inclined to go with PUGS (new) view that the bull will finish sometime next year at higher levels.
    Good luck to all.

    • Tom Smith says:

      I agree with you, but not with Pug. This bull market is just three years old and I think it has much longer to run. Normally a very conservative investor, I piled in with every single cent I have for the long term during the two days after Brexit. We will look back and think of it as one of the best buying opportunities of the decade.

      • bud67 says:

        PUG”s next spring (2017). Price high call is
        2246, or higher at 2514… Tom, for now.
        Feel you made a good decision.

  4. Starting to think the crowd is long gold and US 30yrs both are fear trades with near record long futures positions both small and large investors, credit spreads are not widening so the cost of money for companies is not a major issue. The risk of Japanese fiscal QE July 21st raises the possibility Japanese equities could rally as they are bouncing on support lines. Chinese economic data rolling over as they try and massage an exit from their debt problem via slow depreciation of the USDCNH exporting slow growth to commodities producing countries. US econ data puts a rate hike back on the cards. So US equities can rally into the Fed decision in July, Japanese equities direction will be determined by JCB decision. Gold and US 30yr’s have just about completed their rally and appear to have peaked. US 30yr treasuries are close a major low point for yields. If Trump is elected in November this will require weaker economy and stock market than US fiscal QE is on the cards wont be implemented until early 2017. This all suggests cash is the safest trade in the short-term, the brave could trade equities into the Fed window until either equity sentiment gets extreme then go short. In time US fiscal QE will be introduced then you can go short US 30yr and US long equities this seems to be a 2017 event. P.S. I live in New Zealand so you guys are probably all asleep.

  5. stmro says:

    Lots of accusations and recriminations flying around these days. Turning points occur at emotional extremes maybe?🙂

  6. Velocity Too says:

    rd3777, we hit your E-wave target today, which even included an overthrow. Let’s see what happens on Monday.

  7. The jobs report sent trouble trouble boiling and bubbling away! Over Wall Streets thorny path you’ll stumble then you’ll awaken one fine day and your troubles will have vanished away!

    You were Wall Streets stepchild. Always managing to get in trouble. Fortunately, you have an understanding Central banking mother who helped you smooth away your difficulties. One of these days you’ll awake to a troubled market and great happiness will be yours. You’ll have a sensitive position and easily hurt. Try to develop a tough skin! Markets for you should hold no dull moments.

  8. aahmichael says:

    Well…after scrolling through the posts from today, it’s obvious that, once again, emotions have run rampant on the blog. It’s like clockwork. Every time the S&P moves 10 handles in either direction, then the amateurs here are either freaking out, or having an orgasm. However, today, for whatever reason, a lot of the comments were about me. Folks, I’m not here for individual attention. I’m not here to prove anything, and I’m not here to sell anything. I don’t give trading advice and I don’t make short term market calls. I have no clue what the market is going to do from one day to the next, and whatever it does on any given day is 100% irrelevant to me. My time frame and my trading/investing objectives have absolutely nothing to do with the hour to hour or day to day action in the market. I write posts on this blog simply because it helps me organize my own thoughts for my own benefit. That’s it. Period. (yes, I actually think about what I’m going to say before I post anything.)

    I also post my S&P trades here for a couple of reasons:
    #1: because I think that “market calls” and/or EW counts that are not accompanied by a specific trading strategy are total BS and a complete waste of time. As I’ve said so many times before, no one has ever made a penny with a market call or an EW count. To make money in the market you have to take a position, and that means an entry price, a quantity, a stop price, and ultimately an exit price.
    #2: so that the non-professionals who read the blog can be exposed to a way of trading/investing that doesn’t involve scalping/daytrading. Since most scalpers/daytraders eventually blow up, I think it might be of some help, for those still trying to find their way, to see other ways to profit in the market.

    Best of luck to all of you.

    • Hi seems the correct long -term positioning is short however tbis might take a few months to payoffs . At the moment credit spreads are contracting and government yields are holding on to new lows this supports multiple expansion via utitlites, reits, consumer staples and industrials. It seem like the only thing that can kill this bull market is a fed hike i.e policy mistake, higher long dated bond yields and economic weakness. What I cant work out is what will cause a blow out in 30yr treasuries and credt spreads to blow the yield trade up thinking Chinese devaluation. Any thoughts from posters would be great. We are all in this game to make money shoud work as team to find tbe best answer . Tks

      • wanderer says:

        Re: We are all in this game to make money shoud work as team to find tbe best answer

        For better or worse, it’s not how it works. Trading is not a team sport, and there is no “best answer”. There may be a consensus, but ironically enough, you are probably better off trading *against* the consensus.

        The best thing we can do here is to be civil.

        • Yes good point the best money is often made when there is a strong concensus and you bet against it. Some of my best long term investments have been betting against the majority. New to this blog who are the credible posters?

        • Igor says:

          “We are all in this game to make money should work as team”
          Re: “it’s not how it works”
          Yep, I wrote already on this forum about a confirmation bias and expert bias with links.

          • NEWBIE says:

            Igor, u stopped posting on your blog right after the brexit event. Why?

            • Igor says:

              Studied blog statistics for a month. Turned out the vast majority of visitors (~90%) come from Tony’s blog after I post a link to a new post on Tony’s site. If I only post a link to a new post on my twitter line there is practically no visitors from twitter and from this forum. Nobody cares. Since I am not selling anything and running the blog takes time I figured out that it’s not worth it. I can always post some charts and analysis here when I am in the mood instead turning it in an everyday chore. Besides, trying to analyse the sideways trend is an exercise in futility but a blogger has to write something everyday and it would be doing a disservice to readers. The market is in a trading range about 80% of time. My best trades happened when I patiently waited for a high probability pattern. Taking low probability trades only depletes my account eventually. Still has some work to do on discipline. Btw, my last post was on MET. I considered it a high probability trade. Was buying put spreads and puts on it since then. Covered all my losses from the previous month and made some more $. I think that individual stocks chart clean patterns more frequently than indices and are less crowded. Most folks, however, follow indices and not interested in particular stocks. So, thanks to Tony, it’s seems better to express my opinion on his site from time to time since the majority of readers come from here anyway.

      • ewmarkets says:

        “what will cause a blow out in 30yr treasuries”

        • can only see minor blowout inflation in the short-term as in a service economy 50% of inflation is wage related and workers have limited bargaining power i.e. this is confirmed by wage growth rates v.s. productivity over the last 30yrs, but yes take your point average hourly earnings are pointing to higher inflation in the short run.

          • ewmarkets says:

            I know the government data show low inflation. But when I buy goods and services, I do see most things are a lot more expensive than they used to be. Certainly insurance on my house and vehicles keep rising a lot every year. Long term care insurance premiums keep rising every year. Disney’s admission fees keep rising every year. Add to that health care costs and college tuition.

            Commodities are creeping up in prices, aren’t they? Since bottoming at the end of last year, Lean hog: bottomed under 52, now 78; cotton, 54 to 65; coffee, 111 to 144; Lumber, 214 to 312; sugar, 10 to 19. At some point, high inflation rate will show up in CPI and interest rates will have to adjust.

            • Commodity inflation should be capped by bloated inventories, over capacity and slower Chinese demand, can’t see huge inflation coming from commodities until the next cycle in 20 years, should only be brief recoveries to be hit with supply coming back on stream as businesses don’t like to die easily. Yes you are experiencing inflation in some areas this is however being overwhelmed by low wage growth and globalisation driving down the pricing power of businesses. I have analysed inflation to death and looked at places where inflation thrives and it mostly boils down to the bargaining power of labour over capital in a modern service economy. US GDP is 70% service based of those business wages are about 70% of the cost base, so the ability of staff to get pay rises above productivity determines a large component of inflation. Think back to the 70-80s when unions were strong back then you could easily get wage increases above productivity. These days most workers struggle to get wages rises above productivity due to general weak profit and GDP growth the exception is CEO’s and their close cohort.

      • aahmichael says:

        re: “We are all in this game to make money shoud work as team to find tbe best answer.”

        First of all, there is no “best answer” when it comes to investing. That’s because each individual has to know his own personality, his own risk tolerance, his own time horizon, and his own investment goals. Those factors will be different for almost everyone. Therefore, what might be the perfect place for one person to get long, could easily be the perfect place for another person to get short.

        Also, while I won’t say that it’s impossible to be successful working as a team, I will say that consensus decision-making in trading/investing is the worst thing that anyone could ever do. It would certainly be impossible for me to ever work as a team. I have a “lone gunman” personality. I always do things my own way with zero consideration of what anyone else thinks. To be successful in this business, you have to be a leader, not a follower.

      • With all the bullish arguments you provide, I can’t understand why you think this:
        “Hi seems the correct long -term positioning is short however tbis might take a few months to payoffs “

        • Core problem is that in order for politicians to get the mandate to under take fiscal QE i.e. direct cordination of discretionary fiscal policy between the Fed and Treasury you need to have an recession equity bear market of at least 30%. So far GDP growth is running at 2.4% housing is going okay and durables have bounced these are the key GDP variables. Sorry havnt quite worked this one out.

  9. NEWBIE says:

    If you are bearish please come forward.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Newbie I’ll have a pint with you. But you. But I can’t come forward. Is LA really likes sons of Anchary portrait it?

    • 123 abc says:

      Taking out 2134 would be uncharted territory. A breakout after consolidating for over a year around 2100 could be explosive to the upside. There would be no context or resistance levels above to judge weakness, just support levels below. Probably prudent to be bearish once new resistance levels and pivots have been defined.

    • scalping where I can and neutral for now, looking to get short Monday/Tuesday. I expect some inertia coming from Asia/Europe after this move unless there is some surprise over the weekend coming from european banking system (italy/uk). Exited DWTI (although prematurely).

      • NEWBIE says:

        Can I get one bear to come forward, it seems not. I think they may be extinct which is exactly where the market wants them to be right before a market crash. It’s coming people.

    • Hi I am bearish on 12mths view but getting your short-term timing is right is incredibly difficult I have been investing for 30yrs when you are wrong you have stop out take rest and wait for clarity. Not sure you can gauge sentiment off this blog small subset of investors.

      • NEWBIE says:

        Great post. Here check out this site:

        Look how almost all blogs are bullish.

        • blackjak100 says:

          The problem is a lot of people were bearish in Jun 2007. The ‘consensus’ can be right at times. I think the Fed’s model is useless and outdated. Article I saw today was residential construction hits 9 yr high in the Twin Cities metro area. I’ve said it numerous times here working in that industry…there is nothing recessionary about this statistic. It’s absolutely insane rates are near 0 with this kind of housing activity. Now mortgage rates are probably heading even lower. This is sure a unique time in the markets with no comparison to speak of.

        • Tks sentiment I have found is a tricky thing to measure.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Equity put/call closed at 0.52 – sign of a top. Below 0.60 is a red flag, below 0.55 and sirens are ringing. 0.52 is the second lowest close in over a year (May 27th, 2016 = 0.51)

      You could be right, hard to see a sustained break-out from here given the extreme complacency and euphoria.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Sentiment is not a factor in a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd. Indicators like CPCE should not work. Up volume was 19:1 today and breadth was mega strong which is exactly what you want to see in a breakout (highest ATH weekly close). It shows there was conviction in the move. What more do you want to see? There is nothing bearish yet IMO.

        I think many are way overthinking this market. Early on in my trading endeavors, I did just that and I was not very profitable.

        • NEWBIE says:

          Bj, How long have u been trading?
          Are you familiar with any market besides the last 7+ years of up to compare to? Could the conviction be shorts covering?

          • blackjak100 says:

            actively for last 4 yrs and occasionally since 2005. I’m still solvent and haven’t come close to going broke. However, I’m not making millions either. With that said, short covering rallies are violent and usually get reversed quickly. We already have 2 higher lows (2074 & 2089) so there’s no quick reversal and there’s nothing violent about the rise from 1992.

            Today was different than the other times we’ve approached this zone. It was accompanied by strong volume, strong breadth, and closed at weekly ATH. Combine this with the potential wave count of a ‘third of a third of third’, the back to back 90% up volume days off the low (breadth thrust), and the probability is very high we are witnessing a sustainable breakout. Odds are high we follow thru on Monday.

    • TLT. Solid. Monthly indicators just getting going.

    • nsteve24 says:

      US Bank earnings next week, could be trigger lower for week 6

  10. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    My apologies to all for the disruptive emotive acronym outburst. Great work everyone.

  11. NEWBIE says:

    How many here are short going into this weekend? How many are long? Most bears have thrown in the towel and bulls are bullish expecting new highs. *Rug pull coming” They got the masses right where they want them, all on one side of the trade.

  12. bud67 says:

    Big Fan of the OIL market – looking at UWTI as a Buy
    at 25.88 with a $1 stop loss…..end

  13. My comments are not getting thru. Must be ruffing some feathers. So be it. if not I move on.

    T minus 5 and counting. Neutral to almost uptrend. Might even get to “Not Bad”. 7 years and 300 percent move in a secular bull run that is not even qualified as bullish? If anyone one was asked 7 years ago at the bottom of this market how they would rate the FED if they managed to allow 7 years to go by and a 300 percent price move. Most would laugh that off as impossible. Food for thought.

    • Whoopee. Paranoia sets in? 2136 should be seen Monday intra-day, if not at close. Moot point. We are not moving in a blow-off fashion and nothing immediate will cause it to crash. The next drop should not take out the prior lows of these swings. that means 2100 is most likely the lows in next round of drops. Started entering clear channel, similar to February move. 2250 should be achieved this year. Anytime between November and January will end this current up leg.

    • wanderer says:

      Re: My comments are not getting thru.

      I had the same problem, and I think Fiona mentioned that as well. Tony assured me that he was not censoring my posts. So, I think it’s just the WordPress system is not functioning properly at times.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    It’s becoming evident on here that if people follow someone’s advice and it goes against them they turn on the people that gave that advice. They then make an effort to go against that advice and when proven right make sure that person knows about it. Then you got the constant permabears who are better off spending time on zeroheadge. This blog is amazing.

    • wanderer says:

      Re: This blog is amazing.

      Amusing, too. From the posts, it looks like half the people here trade the moon cycles, Jupiter-Mercury angles (aka Bradley turn dates), some kind of ancient candlestick patterns, the head-shoulder-elbow formations, the Bible, W.D. Gann angles, and even the perceived energy field from the Universe.

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Just had a glance throught and I see some people were having a dig at Ahh because he got it wrong. What a sad state of affairs. He gave you his opinion and he backed it up with reasons why he felt that way. He didn’t charge you, he didn’t belittle you, he didn’t insult you. Just gave his view. Some serious losers out there.

    • bud67 says:

      not sure what your talking about Vive.
      Why, aah is a little teddy bear.

    • Like me, if you are adamant on a position you better be able to take the heat. You should also be able to concede being wrong and move on. My streak is pretty long but know I can slip up and even miss major reversals. never an easy task but pretty lucrative for me and fun. Once the fun goes out of it I will end the practice. Love the action. Hold off going to AC because of the adrenalin I get, but know the odds ae against me. I like my odds playing the market.

      • phil1247 says:

        the odds arent always against you in the casino

        the odds bet in craps allows you to play even with casino

        you are getting the true odds

    • bud67 says:

      I have had my runiin with aah in the past.
      Like to just leave it there, if you do not mid.

      • Cool. My motto; it is best to keep silent and appear a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt. OKAY, I like the motto more than the practical application. Most would agree I put my foot in my mouth.

        • phil1247 says:


          who is this new and improved person?

          no anger

          no vitriol

          self depecating…

          this could prove very interesting if it continues ………..

          stay tuned world…..

          • wanderer says:

            Haha. Yes, Gary keeps changing. Not just his/her gender, but his/her demeanor, as well. It must be some sort of exercise in flexibility and fluidity.

            • That how I can play the market. One day riding the wave, the next allowing the drop to make quick money on. I am a pessimist that analyzed the market and determined in 2010 we would see one of the biggest and longest bull run ever. In order to do that you have to be bipolar. I always talk to myself and discuss both sides of the argument. Which ever one wins the argument I obey. Weight the odds on strength of argument and move and bet accordingly. there are months where I do not bet.

  16. T Minus 5 and counting. Bears are on the ropes and wobbling badly.

    I am simply astonished how even TONY’s bias has shaped the argument of where we are in this 7 year trend. Neutral or almost uptrend? A 7 year 300 percent move that makes my nose bleed looking at the trajectory of the long trending charts simply can’t be shrugged off as not really bullish.
    If we end up at 2250 by end of year I can assure you most opinions would change not one bit. Not really bullish? Name me another point in time where we went up this high for this duration? I would call the FED’s action as nothing short of miraculous. I am not talking about emotional bias and moral indignation. I am talking solely on achievement. I dare anyone of you to go back 7 years, at the bottom of the market, and answer this question honestly. How would you rate the FEDs future performance if they managed to triple the stock market in a 7 year time frame. But we complain about it even today. Astonished how human nature loves to complain about everything without enjoying what already happened.

    My current MACRO view is on target for an immediate future that should look something like this:
    1 – Highs reached between November of this year and January of next. 2250 on SPX
    2 – nasty drop due to inflation, profit squeeze. 20 percent drop in 2017.
    3 – 2018 thru 19 should have yet another surge to perhaps 2500 on SPX.

    I would lump this whole move as one long secular bull run. The perma-bear will be very happy in 2017 but depression would once again set in for the following year. This bull run will go down in history as one of the all time greatest and longest. Sadly it will be followed by a long winter but we need not go there yet.

    Does it surprise anyone that I am a pessimist at heart? I always question my assumptions and am very willing to made a switch. So for the time being since my fundamental analysis has been pretty good I will stick to current long term scenario.

    Immediate future we need to see earnings meet or beat the whisper number and more importantly have the CEO’s announce future expectations reaching double digits. Spending by consumer must hold up. With those things intact the next 5 months should be a repeat for February move.

  17. dan pulford says:

    Thansk again Tony. Have a great weekend. The VIXter

  18. dan pulford says:

    A double top? Sold TNA into the high and holding TZA over the weekend. Not scalpers rules, swing trade rules. Risk reward is to good to pass up, imo. The VIXter

    • phil1247 says:

      sure you did dan………

      i went long at spx 666 and holding long ever since

    • bud67 says:

      Hello….over the weekend.
      Give this OEW chart some thought
      vs your TZA….;

      • phil1247 says:

        quite foolish to short,
        into such a powerful advance,

        dont you think.


        • bud67 says:

          well, I have made my
          share of investing errors.
          I learned, to never go against
          the NY A/D, a chart that OEW
          wisely offer’s…Trading, or investing
          in SSO, or SDS could not be easier.


        • bud67 says:

          IMO….learning is not a straight line – another way of
          saying – learning – takes time, but for the NYSE
          market – hard to go against the NY A/D line in my view.
          True, special situations, may suggest a short.
          Example, a companies earning record is poor, or has
          turned down…end

          • Bud, you may want to take a look at this article from May 2016. Apparently, the NYSE is only 52% common stock. Other things trade on the NYSE like ADRs and entities linked to the bond market. So, since bonds have been on fire, the NYSE A/D line hitting new heights is likely due to the bond market. What chartists do to look at stock trends is just chart the NYSE A/D line for common stock only. What that showed a month ago is that it had not even hit its May 2015 high. I can’t find a current chart, but, given that we’ve been in an uptrend for a month and the DJIA and S & P 500 are near their highs, the NYSE A/D line is probably near it’s high too, not at all time highs.

            HEre’s the link to the article:

            • bud67 says:

              Okay, if that is true. Why would OEW
              not have the NYSE A/D line ? Is it possible – Tony is not aware of your important point as well as I am? Then again. For decades now. I have followed the NY A/D line, as OEW deplays. It has never let me down yet. Yet, is a big word – got your message.

              • bud67 says:

                On another point of chart character. I only follow the NYSE Index, vs
                the SP500. Noted, that OEW’s wave count is more in tune with my oiwn
                count. Versus, the OEW, SP500 plot which I do not follow…..

              • The change in composition of the NYSE, where only 52% are common stocks, has occurred gradually over decades. So, the NYSE A/D would have been a more accurate indicator for stocks years ago.

                As for why Tony doesn’t follow the NYSE A/D line for common stocks only, he’d have to answer that question.

              • bud67 says:

                I will ask him.

              • bud67 says:

                I will ask him.
                I see, his NYSE stock chart
                is a good alternate to the
                NY Common stock a/d line.
                Tony, highlights the NYSE
                chart as well this weekend.
                Be wise to follow the NYSE
                composite pattern, as well.

              • bud67 says:

                It is “his” website….

  19. EL MATADOR says:

    Where is Bubbles? …. Bubbles, just a few more point and you get to say, “See, Like I Said” and I get to congratulate you on winning our bet. It could all happen as soon as Monday.
    in the meantime enjoy your weekend Bubbles

    • CB says:

      Mat, re: your “quicksand” questions and how to deal with such a situation. I’m sure Jack will give you excellent advice when he has time. For now, if you want to start doing some thinking… you have a couple of obvious questions to answer .. Considering a possible margin call should be your first concern, I think.. So ask yourself: are you still in a position to make decisions about your trade yourself, or is your broker going to make that decision for you, i.e.: are you getting a margin call as of today’s close, or could you be getting a margin call if SPX trades at, say, 2140ish on Monday. If you are at risk, and if you really want to avoid a margin call, perhaps there are some profitable positions you can liquidate to free up some $$. ..
      Once you know that you are in a position to decide what to do with your position, try to work with Bollinger Bands. Take a look at your 60 min chart and see whether the middle of BB (6o min- now at 2106) would help you in your situation, as it’s likely to trade … At the same time, can you still continue to hold your position, if SPX trades at the top of the BB at 2135ish first?…(even very briefly on Monday).
      If the middle of the BB still doesn’t help solve the problem, 2080- 2090ish is a good retracement possibility as well.
      Finally, IF you have time to wait, perhaps you want to wait for Donald Trump to say something stupid next week – that might take the market down 2040-2050 level rather quickly , if you know what I mean…Hope this helps. GL, Mat.

  20. Good call Tony time for shorts to close out and take a rest .

  21. Jack Sparrow says:

    I can see AAh is a leader…I just went thru some old posts catching up…1/4th of the posts are about him- taking about his actions.this is indeed a quality of the leader..(that doesn’t equate with success or failure- just the leadership)

  22. SPY & DJIA double tops

  23. phil1247 says:

    sandra dons

    was happy to see you post that you got out of 2/3 of your shorts

    sorry you still have a losing position

    is that a picture of your daughter ?

    • Sandra Dons says:

      He is a boy who doctors had the wrong diagnosis with.they didn’t understand he was diabetic…now the consequences for him are terrible

      sorry for my english

      • dan pulford says:

        The blue outfit is an obvious clue he is a boy. Good picture, ‘beautiful beautiful boy’ Sandra.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Sandra where you are from?

      • Happens way too often. It took me 4 hours to accurately diagnose a family member using just test results and book research after she had been misdiagnosed. Then she found out that the average time to diagnosis for that condition eight years. So, she would have suffered for 8 years had I not gotten involved. Although her symptoms were debilitating, the condition could be treated with low dose of two different common medications and she was enjoying life again. The point being that, sadly, doctors are far form infallible although many of them think differently.

          • wanderer says:

            Yep, I noticed that news, as well. Makes you think twice before you go to a hospital, doesn’t it?

          • phil1247 says:


            i was a practicing radiologist

            it is well known that radiologists miss 40% of what is on the radiograph

            now consider that radiologists only read about half of
            the radiographs taken in the usa …………..
            what percentage do you think is missed by those other people????

            • Igor says:

              Sadly enough, even competent doctors make their share of medical errors. I guess it’s a result of a limited time per patient.

              • phil1247 says:

                human error ………..thats all …we are not perfect

              • phil1247 says:

                the point i was trying to make was


                if you have radiographs taken
                …dont have them read by a general practicioner

              • Or, it’s because of laziness or just plain incompetence. Not everyone strives to be really good at their work. Are most doctors reading medical journals nights and weekends to keep up with their field, or are they watching TV or playing golf? Maybe 10% are responsible enough to keep their knowledge up. CME and medical conventions are not enough. And, the limited time per patient is partially because of greed, I’m not doctor bashing I’m just saying that a good portion of them are not competent and put their own interests before the patient’s. In the case of the family member that I had to diagnose, she went to a rheumatologist who diagnosed her with lupus, even though she had only ONE of the required symptoms, when for that diagnosis you need FOUR of 7 symptoms. How’s that for incompetent? Her internal medicine doctor actually called me and apologized, saying he felt a specialist should diagnose her, so he referred her. Anyway, the US medical system is messed up in a big way and you take your life into your hands by going to doctors (or dentists). I find the best hope of getting good care is by going to the faculty practices at medical schools. Those doctors HAVE TO keep up in their field, they are part of a community of medical professionals, they are often best in their field, AND they have a reputation to uphold.

          • CampFreddie says:

            Truly shocking.

  24. torehund says:

    Thank Tony and all and good weekend.

  25. Tony Jordan says:

    Thanks TC, enjoyed every minute of it. Right now about the most obvious thing in my eyes relates to the profit taking at the end of the session. This was a wave 4. This also means any decline from today’s highs will be very limited and we’ll have new highs for the move al pronto. Bears are now an endangered species. A week ago I warned them to change their mind. I practically begged them to reconsider their bearishness because stocks are not in a bubble. Volume is way down from 10 years ago. Wait ’til mom and dad get interested again and the real bubble pops (see chart below). Then you’ll understand why currently this market is only warming up and hasn’t really hit it straps yet. God bless the stockmarket and have a nice weekend.

  26. Peter Sliney says:

    This may seem a bit premature but the magnetic force of a 20,000 Dow will start to be felt.

  27. Jack Sparrow says:

    Mat- dont worry there is a pullback coming soon

  28. Jack Sparrow says:

    Fiona- ref your point I always talk directly but i like to use royal lingo -practicing for my future blog.

  29. gasman88 says:

    This is George Costanza market, it will do the exact opposite of what majority expect. I think almost everyone is expecting new ATH on Monday since we close only few points away… but I think this would be too easy trade

  30. fishonhook says:


    When you made your market bearish call, about this time last year, you said you expected a 40-60% decline from the highs. Now that you have flipped 180 degrees I assume that prediction is off the table?

  31. Page says:

    Next week a pullback is imminent on Monday then bust through ATH and march towards 2200+ (2300) so it is not time for Bears to get excited when they see the pullback.

    Thanks Tony. Have a nice weekend.

  32. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony, appreciate your assistance and expertise. Have a niggling thought whilst learning your excellent method, and my apologies in advance for being pedantic, hoping you can assist.

    Indeed you did mention the rise from 1992-2109 is impulsive; however, I understood this rise just consisted of three impulsive waves as per Tuesday’s update:

    —”We can now count four waves, with a fifth possibly underway, from last Monday’s SPX 1992 low: 2027-2016-2109-2081-2091 so far”.

    Does the impulsive rise from 1992-2109 still consist of three waves? Or, has this been adjusted to include five waves? Under OEW theory, is it possible for an impulsive wave to just consist of three non-overlapping waves?

    • tony caldaro says:

      that 11 point pullback was insignificant compared to the 35 point pullback
      so we adjusted to the wider range and ignored it

      • 123 abc says:

        Thank you Tony for the clarification; you are the gracious, I am the ignoble; look forward to the OEWcc (coffee-club) weekend edition.

  33. mcgcapital says:

    Here’s a note I co-authored a couple of years ago which explains equity bond correlations. In particular, they can stay positively correlated for a period for various reasons. One of the biggest risks to the stock market right now is low yields – any rise in yields from these levels would put the market under pressure. It’s not as simple as saying equities are ‘risk on’ and bonds are ‘risk off’ assets.

    • Hi seems US treasuries getting bid by offshore maybe a little bit more to go trying to work out what will get credit spreads to widen to end the search for div yield?

  34. blackjak100 says:

    strong volume, strong breadth, and near ATH is no time to be short. It’s why I admitted I was wrong and cut my losses at 2125. AAH is going to get crushed. This looks like minor 3 of int 3 of major 3 which is why largest pullback was about 3pts. should see follow thru Mon!

    • blackjak100 says:

      Meant 5pt pullback was largest

    • bud67 says:

      well, if aah can hold his position, for say 1-2 months (only a guess).
      He/she well come out okay, as the SP turns down sharply, after a one
      huge price high….all the best…

      • blackjak100 says:

        Bud, I just said this a third of a third of a third and said why. I can be wrong, but you certainly don’t want to be short until count proves otherwise IMO.

        • bud67 says:

          Absolutely, which raises an
          interesting point – when, in time/price does this bull market end? In playing with the NY A/D line, the guess is mid 2020….

      • jaspingblog says:

        He already covered his shorts based on his comments in last 1-2 days, not sure exactly but search for his posts.

    • fotis2 says:

      I really doubt aah is going to get crushed he is one of a handfull that actually knows how to trade.

    • Bj100, Aah will not get crushed.. Good people don’t get crushed. I don’t know him personally, I never communicated with him. Aah post says lot about Aah. If you have guts go long and face the music. Aah plays within limits and that’s why Aah has remained unknown. If Aah were risk taker, you would have read about Aah in print.

  35. nsteve24 says:

    30Y Yield just broke down to all-time low AH, 2.094

  36. bud67 says:

    Tony – thank you….have great weekend.

  37. skmcobra says:

    Looks like that pink a wave at 1991SPX needs to come off of the chart. Not looking like any kind of bear market to me! This is either wave v of P3 or wave iii of P5.

  38. gasman88 says:

    Stocks ATH, bonds ATH, gold multi year high, wtf?

    • skmcobra says:

      That’s Elliott Wave for you. Different type markets are not dependent upon one another. The bond market it at the top of it’s wave structure and should begin a bear market soon. However Gold/Silver have likely completed their bottom and on the way up for several years.

      • skmcobra says:

        The belief that metals always move opposite of the SPX and DOW has been completely myth busted lately! LOL

        • bud67 says:

          Bull markets, tend to run, longer and a lot higher
          than many understand…Gold?Silver, I mean…

        • LBHK says:

          Gold has always had zero correlation with equities over time which means some months/years it is -1 and some months/years it is +1. It’s never consistently been -1

    • captbara says:

      See 2011 before the big plunge🙂

      But I don’t think it’s that unusual really. Happened during all of 2003-2008

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