Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then rally fades, DOW -23

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:15 ADP was reported lower: 172K v 173K, then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 254K v 268K. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 2100 close, rallied to Friday’s 2109 high, and then began to pullback by 10am. The pullback continued until 3pm when the SPX hit 2089. Then a rally into the close ended the day at SPX 2098.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds slipped 1 tick, Crude dropped $2.25, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30 (est. +180K), then Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened higher today, rallied back to Friday’s SPX 2109 high, then pulled back for the rest of the day before rallying into the close. Looks like an overhead declining trend line has formed: SPX 2121 uptrend high, SPX 2113 pre-Brexit high, and SPX 2109 post-Brexit high. The rally from yesterday’s SPX 2074 low was not able to break through that resistance today when hitting SPX 2109. SPX 2100+ continues to be formidable. Short term support at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and SPX 2121. Short term momentum declined after getting quite overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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408 Responses to Thursday update

  1. CB says:

    Congrats to all the bulls who correctly predicted this yesterday: gto, bourag, 123abc, TraderJoe, Gary, John and anyone else I might have missed.. nice work! Thanks for all the great charts & guys/gals!
    Thanks Tony!
    Have a great weekend all!

    P.S. There will be re-tests (as always) =)

  2. mjtplayer says:

    Congrats to the bulls, very positive day and week. Just a few points from the May ATH, amazing.

  3. bud67 says:

    the SP500, looking very vulnerable right here (3:43pm est)

  4. Seems like the market looked up and said,”WTF …what am I doing up here at 2129?”

  5. NEWBIE says:

    I would love to know who is so foolish to hold long over this weekend?

  6. ariez5 says:

    I have to say that oil’s trading today is what CN would probably call “bearish drift.”

  7. NEWBIE says:

    This is it last chance to short at the top of the market

  8. mike7x says:

    Most astounding thing about new high in SPX? The 500 day moving avg for combined put call ratio is at post-crisis highs, nearing 2008 highs…

    • pete8675309 says:

      A lot of neg div up here, potentially a blowoff top, the strength has fooled me and many others. I think we reverse the bullish read on payrolls next week, imo of course. Trade what you know and what’s in front of you, use tight stops…

  9. ariez5 says:

    When I asked you to post your 1-year chart, you said you had done so many times. Forgive me – I don’t read the board every day, but usually when I do see your charts they are very short-term, like today. Would still like to see the longer term view.
    Also, if this PV is going to be an ending diagonal, can the top of Wave 3 be projected now?

    • bud67 says:

      TJ if you have the time, I am wish to see them as well…

    • I have a blog where I have posted my longer term work. Here is the case for a Primary V contracting ending diagonal. It is only one of two cases possible at this point. For the diagonal to form instead of the impulse, then all the requirements must be met, including the fact that Intermediate (1) ‘must’ make a new all time high to show it’s ‘motive’ character.

      SPX - Daily - Jul-08 1532 PM (1 day)


  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    three possible scenarios explaining TLT, Gold Miners, and the indices.

    1) Gold and Fixed Income are riding higher laughing knowing this is an exhaustion move. Translation – Bond market is smarter

    2) Gold, Fixed Income, and Stocks are all riding higher because there is QE4 coming
    Translation………….if you thought you couldn’t be surprised by the FED one more time guess again biatch!

    3) Gold, Fixed Income, and Stocks are all moving higher because the market is in the “I love smoking crack” phase
    Translation – no one can make any intelligent comment about except there are more buyers than sellers because technicals buck massive contradictions of unparalleled precedence

  11. fotis2 says:

    5 away from geting stopped feel kinda…

    • phil1247 says:


      you shorted spx???

      am i posting all this for nothing ???

      i thought you were a believer in DH method ??

      • ewmarkets says:

        No, not for nothing! Keep posting! Fotis was probably describing how some bears feel like right now. Not all who shorted feel uncomfortable right now. Aah Michael is probably feeling OK. Market goes up and market goes down. Now it is up; next it will be down.

      • fotis2 says:

        A believer?How did you come to that conclusion?I’m only reading it as a matter of interest.I’m busy formulating my own system ie: 3BRs,DTs,DBs,inside days,etc along with the daily CCI for short term swing trades.Done my fair share of day trading and thank goodness got rid of that addiction..

    • ewmarkets says:

      Ostriches bury their heads in the sand when they’re scared or threatened.

      How It Started
      It’s an optical illusion! Ostriches are the largest living birds, but their heads are pretty small. “If you see them picking at the ground from a distance, it may look like their heads are buried in the ground,” says Glinda Cunningham of the American Ostrich Association.

      Why It’s Not True
      Ostriches don’t bury their heads in the sand—they wouldn’t be able to breathe! But they do dig holes in the dirt to use as nests for their eggs. Several times a day, a bird puts her head in the hole and turns the eggs. So it really does look like the birds are burying their heads in the sand!


  12. Elliot principle says 5 Waves. Yet TC says failed fifth and you all fell for that? What are you? Trump followers?

  13. captbara says:

    Since P5 can end at any time, new bulls will have a hard time jumping on board, psychologically speaking.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Better off sitting on the sidelines now until we can consolidate and drop. No point going long now. Missed the meat of the move. Unless its anything like the last time ATH high was breached after a few years!

  14. vivelaamo says:

    I know there is an hour to go but the volume is pants.

  15. phil1247 says:

    a more aggressive extension long has appeared

    bullish above 2122 es

    i will take profits if that level is breached or EOD

    whichever comes first

    good luck all

    have a great weekend !!

  16. blackjak100 says:

    Can we get a 2pt pullback so I can get long???

  17. micky says:

    by the looks not even resistance at 40/44 will hold

  18. phil1247 says:

    es target 2128

    bullish above 2116

    looks like 2133 target of long from lows

    will be hit today as suspected

  19. I’ll ask again – are you focused on getting the correct wAve count or are you serious about making money. Make a change, stop following this nonsense.

    • blackjak100 says:

      At least he has a system. It may not work, but it’s a system. Still amazed people on here compliment him. No wonder why they struggle to make $!

      • jjjzzzwww says:

        treasuries and gold have hammered SPX

      • BJ100, Aah avg short is 2110. It is getting there on Tuesday. he is BATMAN. He does not pay me to say this. I was first to spot Aah Talent. Tony spotted lot later.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        get ready for his vengeance BJ lol ………………..I actually think he makes sense. I am assuming he is being honest with us. You can never ever be sure that what people post later was what indeed happened but he doesn’t seem like he’s BSing us. What would he have to gain anyway? His logic of being short since May of last year and having tight stops above all his short trades since that period of time is and was a reasonable sensible approach and he would tell you it had nothing to do with sense anyway – it was a system. He also eluded to possibly changing the short trades if we hit all time highs which has not happened yet. He also said he went long Gold and Treasuries……………….don’t see how they are working against him either. So why the snarky attitude towards Mikey? His calls have been twenty times better than Tony’s counts in the last year.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Why anybody having a pop at Aah? He made his call and he was wrong. There is nothing wrong with that. Its not like he bellitles people with stupid emoji’s when the market pb’s a few points. They are the worst kind of poster!

  20. johnnymagicmoney says:

    something is stinky out there

  21. NEWBIE says:

    Gold and Silver are letting us all know ahead of time that the “big stock market crash” is coming and the Central Banks have failed.

  22. Well,like I told Phil yesterday…too early to claim success on GDX.But we’ll know more on Monday.
    Just one thing to say on Dallas.I think the showing and in fact,bombardment of YouTube and Facebook videos that are shown on network news shows,,without any balance from the police point of view,will cause this event to repeat.The nightly news broadcasts have put these videos on air whenever something happens–like Baton Rouge–and causes an instant reaction by fired up blacks.These videos are posted before an investigation is even conducted.It’s tantamount to inciting a riot–and should be stopped immediately.

  23. Page says:

    Extremely overbought, some pullback next week then all hell breaks lose towards 2200+.
    Tony will be changing his long term to Bull with higher pivots next week.

  24. vivelaamo says:

    Guys we’re done. No ATH yet.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      its going up all day long into the close…………….its going to pierce 2135 today

      I cant believe this is happening on this half arsed jobs report

      when corporate earnings come out bad I cant wait to see how they spin it. Not as bad as we expected maybe? lol

      here comes higher valuations on negative earnings folks

    • micky says:

      look out the back window, all those bears chasing us lol

  25. Shrihas (@Shrihas1) says:
    July 6, 2016 at 12:42 pm
    Once in a blue moon event: I am going right!!
    ..and once in a lifetime event: I had/have taken positions accordingly..
    Shrihas (@Shrihas1) says:
    July 3, 2016 at 12:55 pm
    If SPX falls to 2080ish and then recovers, then will definitely have ATH. However, it will turn back from 2140ish sharply. In short, SPX 2080 ish then sharply to ATH, then fall to 2040ish that is all ST pattern

  26. micky says:

    lol its just taking out target after target

  27. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I have been thinking of the Sesame Street tune

    “which one of these things is unlike the other, which one of these things does not belong”

    well since Gold, Treasuries, Oil, and stocks are all up today I can’t sing that song. When Big Bird sings again I will know this market is not on crack.

    Unless of course there is QE4 and then that would all make sense!!!! And the big bankers would have known before everyone else AGAIN!!

    • ewmarkets says:

      Golden delicious apples are now 1.47 a pound. It was 0.97 a pound last time I bought them just a few weeks ago. Now, when I go to the grocery store, my $100 buys less than it did a few weeks ago. If you hold cash to wait for pullbacks to buy, that’s ok. If you just hold cash, you’d get poorer by the day. So people had to put their money to use and buy something. Every asset class is as unattractive as the other now a days, so some people buy one asset class while others buy another; so every asset class goes up.

  28. phil1247 says:


    2120 target hit

  29. cj32 says:

    CR. to CBZ…

  30. Sandra Dons says:

    And we’ll never fall down….

  31. vivelaamo says:

    The out of hours pre brexit high hasn’t been breached yet.


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