weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 2037. After a gap down opening to start the week, and a decline to SPX 1992, the market reversed and rallied quite strongly for the rest of the week. The two day post Br-exit decline from SPX 2113-1992, was nearly fully retraced when the market hit SPX 2109 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 3.4%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the downtick: pending home sales, construction spending, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: Q1 GDP, consumer confidence, personal income/spending, the PCE, the Chicago PMI and ISM manufacturing. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls and the FOMC minutes.

LONG TERM: neutral

Took a look at the history of the DOW from 1900-present. Found two periods when the DOW confirmed a bear market, then spent over one year flirting with potential new highs. The two instances are of different wave degrees, but are similar to the current market we have been experiencing since the May 2015 high.


The first one is the 1956-1957 bear market. After a three year bull market in which the DOW doubled, the market spent 15 months attempting to make new highs. Notice it had four uptrends during that period, and all failed to make new highs. Then after failing on its last, and strongest, attempt it broke to lower lows.


The second one is the 2000-2002 bear market. This bear market followed an extraordinary, record breaking, 13-year bull market when the DOW rose from 1,616 – 11,750. Notice after the top it had five uptrends during the following 16 month period, and all failed to make new highs as well. Then after failing on its last attempt, and strongest, it broke to lower lows.


Our current market has done something quite similar. After a six year bull market in which the SPX tripled, the market has spent the last 13 months attempting to make new highs. Notice since the May 2015 high at SPX 2135 the market has had four uptrend attempts to make new highs and all have fallen short: 2133, 2116, 2111 and 2121. Until the market breaks through to new highs we remain long term neutral.


MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

This weeks activity generated a WROC signal. These signals usually occur before OEW confirms and uptrend, and are 96% accurate during bull markets. During bear markets the accuracy drops to about 75%, as some bear market rallies can trigger WROC signals. As a result probabilities suggest an uptrend is now underway.


We continue to count the three wave advance from SPX 1810-2121 as an a-b-c Major wave B. The recent decline to SPX 1992 should have started Major wave C. But the market rallied strongly this week, nearly retracing that entire decline. Should the market confirm an uptrend, and exceed the actual SPX 2135 all time high, then Major wave B is probably subdividing and extending. This would also suggest Primary wave V is underway in the NYSE index.


As we have been noting for a couple of months now. A Primary V in the NYSE to new highs, and an irregular Major wave B in the four major indices, would put all five of these indices back in alignment. Even though the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ would be labeled B wave advances. The NAZ daily chart is carrying this potential subdividing/extending Major wave B count. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.



The market has been quite volatile since the June uptrend high at SPX 2121. The market first declined to SPX 2050, rallied all the way back to SPX 2113, then declined to SPX 1992 just this Monday. We labeled that decline with three Minor waves creating Intermediate wave A. Then from Monday’s low to Friday the market rallied back to SPX 2109. We had anticipated an Intermediate wave B rally if the market cleared the 2043 pivot. But thought the rally would be limited to the 2085 pivot range. When there wasn’t even a notable pullback at that area we knew the market was heading higher.


Thus far we can count four waves up from the SPX 1992 low: 2027-2016-2109-2099. Should the market rally back to SPX 2109, or higher, then the entire rally would look impulsive. If not, then it is just another corrective rally in this ongoing choppy market. With US markets closed on Monday anything is possible by time it opens again on Tuesday. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance SPX 2113 and SPX 2121. Short term momentum ended the week declining from an extremely over bought condition.


Asian markets were all higher gaining 3.3% on the week.

European markets were also all higher and gained 4.2% on the week.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.6% on the week.

The DJ World index gained 3.5% on the week.


Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week.

Crude still looks like it is entering a downtrend but gained 3.0%.

Gold continues to uptrend and gained 1.5%.

The USD is also uptrending and gained 0.2%.


Monday: holiday. Tuesday: Factory orders. Wednesday: ISM services, the FOMC minutes, and FED governor Tarullo gives a speech. Thursday: the ADP and weekly jobless claims. Friday: monthly Payrolls and consumer credit. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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631 Responses to weekend update

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  4. fotis2 says:

    Reversed at 38.2 exact 2091.41.

  5. Scott C says:

    Guys – did we get a 5 down there on the spx… please tell me we see a five down.

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    here come the idiot buyers

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    No idea if we hit new highs or not short term but the more I read about Brexit, political risk, Italian banks, global deflation in some parts and global deflation in others, declining productivity, debt to GDP levels, China, Brazil, FED incompetency, commodity imbalances, Japan, negative rates, PE’s, and a slew of other factors not mentioned the more I am convinced that it is the fundamentals that will bring this market to its knees again. It has gotten to the point where it is mathematically impossible for the collective interconnected risk to not rear its ugly head without a crisis which will lead to a reset in risk assets. Impossible at this point. Price has gotten bulls to believe this is not true. Without question this is a game of musical chairs and each time the music stops something gives way (like commodities over the last year). The contestants left include the large indices but at some point they will be left out as well. The game always ends the same. The rules of musical chairs is the rules of musical chairs and the game accelerates as the contestants drop out. People who believe that the market will continue for years at much higher prices based on great global conditions make me shake my head. I don’t even feel sad for them because they are responsible for their ignorance and greed.

    • wanderer says:

      I agree with your take on the fundamentals, but I still think it’s all about the *relative* valuations, not the *absolute* valuations. That is, the value of a given asset class is seen as high/low relative to the other asset classes. Bonds look to me much more overpriced that stocks. So I would *not* bet on the U.S. stock market decline.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        price tells me bonds are overpriced but what do central bankers know how to do? Print money. What is Asia doing to the rest of the world? Exporting deflation. Knowing a crisis is around the corner and the propensity for Keynesian absurdity some could argue that bonds are underpriced (short term I think they have gotten ahead of themselves). All depends on the time frame……………..right now bonds are over priced……………next couple years they are underpriced. Over the course of a generation I would say overpriced.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I agree but I do think there will be one more test of the Brexit lows before they pump in to the moon!! ( hope there is anyway).

  8. fishonhook says:

    Hi Tony

    I see you quietly removed the B wave from the $SSEC and relabeled it with a c of B to come and also changed the downtrend to ‘uptrend’

    You pretty solid on that change? I have some shorts on SSEC

  9. wanderer says:

    Tomorrow is a big day: FOMC minutes to be released at 2 pm EST. Correct? Just wanted to make sure that I am in sync with the FOMC calendar.

  10. Hi Tony,
    With such low interest rates how can one bet against owning stocks? Yet, many are still bearish. I read a statistic that over 70% of Americans feel the economy is rigged. This could explain this dichotomy. Nevertheless, it appears that our biggest risks are not here but abroad like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, the UK or somewhere in the EU where the next sovereign debt crisis is looming. Of course the biggest surprise, although unlikely as it may seem, would be a debt crisis here in the US. This risk is not hardly talked about or reflected in our markets, except the only observation that all of us, with a historical perspective, can agree on, is that these interest rates are abnormal. Considering the enormity of the potential problem it is best to remain cautious. Hold cash. IMHO cash is making and will continue to make a huge comeback. Its possible that we will make new highs in the SPX, but is it worth the risk. Just a few thoughts. Happy Birthday! May you continue for many more years!

    Other recommendations imho:
    Sell oil above $48, sell gold now and sell silver now

  11. This is for Trader Joe or anyone else that cares to reply.
    When there is a completed impulse (excluding a terminal one) it is followed by a corrective series of waves. As we all know there is a myriad of possible forms that correction might take. Elliott Wave provides a clue in the form of the principle of alternation of what might be coming. I had a thought about another clue that might be possible, in the form of volatility. Are there any studies that show possible biases based on votality (vix) or some other indicator? (ie) flats or triangles during low volatility periods and zig zags during high volatility periods. Just curious if anyone else has thoughts or information on this idea.

  12. ajaysinghi says:

    As expected some good red today. Mkt should bounce a little tomorrow. Booking shorts at eod may not be a bad idea.

    • Too bad the domestic economy hasn’t listened either. How to reconcile the economic data this year from the rhetoric. If anything the drop in yield will throw more money into our market and rightly so. we are the only game in town. Manufacturing has been written off for 2 years now but the 2016 recovery seems to show otherwise. jobs, well we can dismiss a full employment, 30 year low in unemployment payouts, and a service sector that just doesn’t quit. Discretionary incomes is everything to the future of our economy. Watch the continued daily reports and try to explain away our health.

      Does anyone that makes these generalized statements actually look at the whole picture here? I think not. When we break 2135 the same people will deny both the technical and fundamental realities. Carry on!

      Perhaps I speak too soon because 2080 is here today. Me, not worried and in fact think the move is normal right before we take off to new heights.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Can you do us all a small favor and take a break from your continuous repetitive posting…we all hear you already….why not just wait to see if new ATH is made to say, “see i told ya so” or when 1810 low is broken you can say, “shee-it i was wrong”
        what ya say, fair enough?

  13. wanderer says:

    ESU6 price is near the low (2075.5), but the order flow is neutral. This suggests that we are going lower.

    • fionamargaret says:

      translate please…

      • wanderer says:

        The price low (and the subsequent reversal) typically occurs when the order flow is in extreme imbalance. Think of a pendulum motion. The neutral point is south. This is where the pendulum really wants to be. The extreme points are west and east. Hope this makes sense.

        • Sandra Dons says:

          Something about EDGAR ALLAN POE

          Hope a better end

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thanks…..lower please.

        • wanderer says:

          Another useful analogy is a musical one: the concept of tension and release, or dissonance and consonance. If you think of a market action during the day as a musical piece, there is a way to quantify the periods of tension and release, using the order flow.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Interesting W…I find great correlation with music and the market….when you do updates W please do them so I understand…..thanks x

            • wanderer says:

              ESU6 is now 2072.5. Order flow is still neutral. That means the low has not yet been reached. So, my algo patiently waits until order flow becomes distorted (i.e. unbalanced, dissonant). When it does, the system will trigger a long trade. When the flow becomes neutral, the system will go flat (i.e. long position will be closed).

          • aahmichael says:

            Interesting that you would pick up on that. I wrote a post here several months ago comparing the waves in the market to jazz. i was a professional musician for 20 years prior to doing what I do now, and whenever people ask me how I was able to make a switch like that, I tell them that the only thing that’s different is the keyboard that’s in front of me.

            Look at a transcription of John Coltrane’s solo on Giant Steps, and compare it to charts of the SPX, and there is no difference.

            • wanderer says:

              All I hear in John Coltrane’s solo is a “random walk”. For me, good associations between music and markets pop up when I listen to something like this:

              Tremolos -> small oscillations around support/resistance
              Dynamics -> market volume intensity
              Up/down scales -> uptrends and downtrends
              Cadences –> unexpected price moves

              • aahmichael says:

                Millions of people claim that the market’s moves are random as well. However, for those who know the “language of the market,” they see order, when everyone else sees randomness and chaos. It’s the same with jazz.

                Here’s some of what I posted previously:
                aahmichael says:
                February 14, 2016 at 9:25 am
                My background is in music, and I always tell people that counting waves is like playing jazz, rather than classical. Sometimes you know exactly here you’re going, and other times, it’s very unpredictable, as both are free flowing. To do either successfully, you have to always have a free and open mind. Just like EW has strict rules and forms and subdivisions, jazz has strict rules and forms and subdivisions too. However, in both cases, while the rules never change, the forms can often be stretched and pulled one way or another, but most importantly, those forms are always governed by the subdivisions.

              • fionamargaret says:

                Thanks Eine Kleine Nachtmusik maybe…I really got sick of it though
                I played Dvorak “cello concerto all the time….

              • wanderer says:

                Yeah, this makes sense, AAH. I don’t understand jazz, so I suppose it’s akin to someone looking at the market without understanding of what’s going on.

            • johnnymagicmoney says:

              orderly chaos is what I call it………….I am an abstract painter so I too have that left brain right brain thing. I always tilt my head like a dog when people make comments about it being unusual. To me everyone has the capacity to do math and art (some have greater abilities than others of course) they just don’t know how to tap that power or expand it. To me its the way all minds are meant to work. I paint in a very abstract manner but break down the painting and there is a tremendous amount of order, division, and subdivision. The whole thing is one piece and the whole thing is made up of pieces and the pieces are whole in themselves.

              • fionamargaret says:

                …and that is what chaos theory is all about…

              • aahmichael says:

                JMM, I’ve always said that EW counting is a combination of math and art, and I’ve always leaned more towards the art side of it. It’s one of the reasons why I have never placed a label on a chart in 30 years of doing this. For me, that would make as much sense as an artist covering his painting with labels that identify each and every color in the painting.

            • CampFreddie says:

              Fascinating comments on similarities of Mkts and Music. Thnx.

            • johnnymagicmoney says:

              Mikey – I am sure their is art out there which includes labels. whether or not that was good art or not is another question =)

      • bud67 says:

        he,he,he — translate, that made me smile…

        • fionamargaret says:

          I have to have TJ translate too….so far i haven’t had the need to ask you to translate Bud, maybe because yours is easily understood….show them how to do it Bud x

          • bud67 says:

            Now, go easy. It is with great
            effort to be a long time “reader”
            of OEW writers. I merely read
            an “musing” point. And, I noted
            the rain here is gone, as well….x

          • EL MATADOR says:

            Fiona, I thought I was playing a game of chess against Mr Market (..think Ender’s Game)
            Wonder Man and Magic Mikey hear music
            Johnny Magic Man see art

            • fionamargaret says:

              You are a good chess player Mat…I am doing horribly…think that doji is on my head…

    • bud67 says:

      hmmm…I am more Bullish,
      seeing coming low as a
      strong, short term buy.
      Watch for it……end

  14. rd3777 says:

    Market doing a small set of 1,2’s and is getting ready to accelerate down……market will waterfall in coming days as everything is now in Big C down oil included

  15. Here is a plausible count on the day, after 3 = 2.618 x 1.

    SPX - Intraday - Jul-05 1238 PM (5 min)


  16. blackjak100 says:

    Very tricky count because minor 2 of int 1 of major 3 lasted a few hrs and only 11 pts. This looks to be int 2 if the major 3 count is in play suggesting Natey’s count is correct where minor 4 is very tiny. I’m expecting int 2 to test 2070 pivot at a minimum.

  17. Lee X says:

    Hey Tony

    Sorry for bringing the rain to the Heartland this holiday weekend but it certainly needed it and we were able to blow everything off Sunday night as we got a break after 9:00 pm.
    USA !

  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Question folks …………..so Gold’s last bull ended in 2011 during the European Financial Crisis and then went into a bear which bottomed out late last year I am guessing

    from a count standpoint we are in PI ? If so what would be your count projections on PI if that count is correct?

  19. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I have 15 long holdings which I do not trade often………..12 of them at new all time highs today

    utilities, tobacco, telecom, JNJ, LMT, and bonds

    seriously folks – does that scream bull market??

  20. 123 abc says:

    SPX cash thus far has 3 waves up from the 1992 low. However, the SPX futures appear to have 5 waves up (from a novitiate view)…

    Tony et al, do you see the uptrend in SPX futures as corrective or impulsive since the Brexit lows?

  21. Page says:

    SPX to test 2040sh this week.

  22. Peter Sliney says:

    The market rally’s because Hillary is acquitted? The collective must not like Trump.

    • rd3777 says:

      Hillary et al has the goods on the FBI and CIA and it would be entirely foolish to think they would bring charges. The criminal syndicate owns this country and has for a long time…..rule of law….don’t make me laugh….

  23. Hey look at that…no more failed 5th at 2,104…it’s now P5 at 2,134, and 2,104 is just a minute b (green) on the way down to Int C at 1,810…

    Has been since the June 20 (Monday) update. There was no failed 5th. Now anyway.

  24. phil1247 says:


    and fotis

    did you load up on sco like i suggested before the holiday??

    not the collapse i expected
    …but nice gap up on sco

    added more sco this am on breakdown
    ext shorts in force

    14 dollars on crude oil target over time

    • fionamargaret says:

      no…but wishing I had…I am trying to scalp on the upside of UWTI….think the new format makes 45 the low for oil….

      • phil1247 says:


        wont be able to chat any more today

        got too many trades going on and raising stops

        will get back with you after market close

        good luck !!!

        • fionamargaret says:

          My posts are not going through anyway….talked about Petraeus, but i never am unkind to anyone…why moderate…mentioned Profumo and Keeler as a reference..well know law case….what do they not like

    • fotis2 says:

      No Phil I went short ALSI Friday and short SPX Thursday close and added more on Friday still waiting for a crude daily close bellow 45.83 for a short..

  25. Now looks like we find a bottom around 2080 today followed by a big rally tomorrow to perhaps 2120-2125. A bounce for another 2 days and then its off to the races.

  26. I’ll tell you,the perameters that Comie set for criminal indictment was reached imho.It’s just politics now.

    • So 7 top category secret emails sent on a regular email and no charges.Petraeus yes,Clinton no…lol.This after Comie said in setting it all up,that intent was not needed to have criminality be charged.Not surprising though.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Petraeus was a different case altogether …..just as the Keeler case with Profumo (google if you don’t do law) secrets discussed with girlfriend…..actually I think we should bring back Petraeus – good man…just stupid mistake…

        • purplember says:

          fiona, sending top secret email on private server to blumenthal who doesn’t not work for gov’t. is not different !

          our gov’t is corrupt and no one trusts them. clintons corruption list very long

  27. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony.
    Happy belated Birth day. I am surprised how WROC triggered.
    Safety belts at 2040 or 2019 ?

  28. phil1247 says:

    sold more 30 yr bonds at 2.16 yield this morning

    equivalent to TLT 142.25
    .near .the upper trendline i was waiting for

    still have about 25% of my long bonds left in my ira

    it was a struggle but da boyz this morning took off my hands

    a big slug of 5% may 2037 treasuries that
    i had bought near par …
    ….. at 156.5

    thank you very much!
    late last week they were around 154 ..
    ………. worth the wait !!!!..

    if we go thru tlt upper trendline i will be more patient selling the rest

    lets send TLT up to 350 !!!!!!! 🙂 🙂

  29. Dex T says:

    Why this 37-year-old British financier voted for Brexit

    “James Williams, 37, lives in Wandsworth, a district of southwest London, where 75% of voters wanted the UK to remain in the European Union. He was part of the minority.”

    Williams says that he and pro-Brexit voters weren’t acting out of blind patriotism; rather, they could “see through what these leaders were saying on one hand but then receiving funds from the EU.”

    Ultimately, Williams says any of these sorts of trade-offs don’t hold a candle to the bigger reason he voted to leave the EU. “What this comes down to is our country’s sovereignty and ability to dictate our own rules, laws and the direction that we’re going in. I voted to regain that right.”


    • Dex T says:

      Some additional interesting reasons listed in the article. When it comes down to it there was little benefit for most Brits to be in it. They were paying heavily for access to an organization that offered few benefits.

      • Lets see how those little benefits translates when they are once again forced to divvy up to trade with them. Not only will they be forced to spend almost as much money to the EU as they do now their migration issue is also defunct. they will be forced to allow EU migration. So do they get completely out of the EU on trade? Suicide proposition but anything’s possible. They had ZERO plan in place and for a good reason. there is none. Anyone in their right mind will see thru this in one years time as noting more than xenophobia. London will hurt the most initially, but it will spread to the rural areas when jobs become m ore scarce and pensioners see no more money. the big DUPE. Done deal that they blundered and it will have a lasting affect.

        Do you really think the pound got pounded because these was no understanding of what just happened? Financial moves, especially long term, are non-emotional and reflect the reality of the day. How in the world does UK stay independent from EU trading block? Silly and suicidal. All for misplaced notion of sovereignty. Ask the young and metropolitan areas what they think. better yet wait another year and see the results of this experiment.

        • vivelaamo says:

          I’ve asked so many times and you never answer. Do you live in the UK??

            • vivelaamo says:

              Explains why your views on Brexit are a load of tosh!

              • Looks like the whole market is mistaken and a good number of leave voters that realized the day after the election they got duped. Are you suggesting otherwise? Scotland GONE! London financial district GONE! Higher inflation with a recession HERE! No new money into UK from leaving EU. YUP! No new migration agreement if they want to trade with EU. Yup!

                Please spell out where I am mislead? The whole idea was misplaced ideology and fear of foreign influence. Do you want me to present articles that deal in real life outcomes instead of this individuals opinions? In fact I DARE you to present articles that spell out possible outcomes using numerical data points on financial arrangements expected between EU and UK and what exactly they gain or lose. I double dare you! There is NO outcome that will replace the current one that comes remotely close to the health of their nation before the vote. NONE! I have looked this way to Sunday and found no good news.

                A detachment from the 600 million trading bloc and you think that is financial advantageous? Ridiculous to the extreme. Not even the party that pushed for the vote is talking. Please present article that show what a brilliant move this was.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Anybody that thought their wasn’t going to be short term pain if we left the euro was obviously very naive. Of course it will hit the economy hard thats common sense! But this is the beginning of the end for the EU. It won’t be long before either a) Other countries begin referendum campaigns to leave the EU or b) Massive reforms which will have to include the UK. Regardless of the future I would happily wager $100,000 with you that in 5 years time the UK will not only be stronger than it is now but will also be stronger than the EU in terms of GDP and unemployment rate. Thats if the EU still exists in its current form which I very much doubt it well.

          • Vive.., You are new in the blog, so, let me explain. There is inner circle of Tony on this blog (I wont name anyone.) Tony passes IP Address to inner circle.

            That is why inner circle got confused as Gary and Holy are posting from same IP. Both look related to each other!

            • vivelaamo says:

              You probably didn’t need to see an IP address to work out both Holly and Gary were the same person. They both chat the same amount of **** without the occasional good call to get all excited about. I preferred Holly.

              • They both are the same as told by ME but I guess since you don’t believe me it is understandable why you think conspiracy. As for the argument that YOU are waiting for the EU to collapse please tell me when that occurs? Before or after UK goes into a depression? So the basis of your cheery argument is that the UK will force EU to crumble? Want to bet it’s the other way around. In fact watch all the other nations fall in line when they get done with the UK. You said it yourself, the war is on. Which is most likely to win? Hmm. Lets see. if in a years time UK is a mess would OTHER nations want the same? You are not logical and you don’t analyze the situation beyond a feel good patriotism for the moment. Look at all the demonstrations against the Polish. Not sure how the Muslim problem is connected but I am sure hatred has no religion. NYC had riots over conscription during Civil War. They lynched the blacks. Sure did nothing for their cause expect to vent hatred.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Lets just wait and see hey? Nothing to do with patriotism. I have no love for this country.

          • fionamargaret says:

            I am a UK citizen, with a UK passport…..if you are looking for Brits…Vive

            • Dex T says:

              So what’s your take on Brexit Fiona?

            • vivelaamo says:

              No Gary just seems to be extremely opinionated on an issue that I don’t think he can ever fully understand unless he lived here. Some people just think they know it all. Its good to hear the thoughts of non UK citizens but his matter-of-fact attitude is irritating.

        • Dex T says:

          Pure alarmist nonsense! With such a strong economy the U.K is in a position to negotiate very favorable trade agreements. The EU will definitely trade with the U.K. once it leaves.

          Leaving simply gives the U.K. ability to make their own laws and regulations and control their borders.

          The pound was hit short term but will recover in time. In 2-3 years it will be in a better position.

          You are also forgetting that without the U.K. funding the remaining EU members will have to make up the difference and raise taxes. This is likely to intensify the desire of the other wealthier nations to leave. The EU has far more to worry about to keep it’s other members placated.

          • Dext, Yes..correct. Property funds were in problem for last 4 months, I knew. They have taken BREXIT excuse. I suggest, You hold south and I will hold North, let rest of the boys and girls migrate to Canada.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Vive is right, the UK will likely come out of this better than the EU in 5 years time. It sounds like you’ve read some of the remain side’s propaganda and taken it as gospel. Not many leave voters feel ‘duped’ as you put it, I’m assuming you’re basing this on the Nigel Farage thing which was blown out of proportion. In fact, a survey was done last week showing that most people would stick with their vote if we had another referendum. Scotland aren’t assured to have another referendum and even if they did they aren’t guaranteed to vote out. There are a number of economic issues with them separating from England and Wales, especially with oil at $50 a barrel. The SNP obviously want independence but they wanted this before the referendum and are using it as an excuse. London will remain a major financial centre – it has the infrastructure, people with experience and a language advantage over Frankfurt/Paris. Depending on what is agreed, some jobs may move to the continent but the bulk of operations will likely be unaffected. Yes inflation will be higher and growth lower in the short term, but these are temporary factors and we won’t be talking about them in 10 years’ time. If anything, a weaker pound will attract foreign investment once things settle down, which may take 1-2 years. In addition, the EU don’t hold all the chips in relation to trade agreements as the UK imports more than it exports. For example, we import 800,000 German cars every year. Do you think Europe will want to impose barriers to trade? Seems unlikely. The U.K. electorate won’t stand for a weak deal which involves the free movement of people staying as it is. We have to see what is negotiated, but I think the UK actually have the upper hand as the EU needs us more than we need them. Nobody in the UK wants to cut us off completely from Europe, we value the trade and culture but it is time to take control of our own laws again and restrict immigration to a level that is in the national interest.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Try telling that to the so called ‘educated’ that wanted to remain. Apparently if you voted to leave you are both racist and uneducated.

        • Dex T says:

          There are educated people who benefitted from being in the EU- some politicians, bankers and businessmen did quite well.

          However, the majority of Brits were left paying the bill and subsidizing the costs. It was untenable long term.

  30. captbara says:

    TJ how is that EWO looking for wave 4? Must be below the 0 line now.

  31. stan502 says:

    Good morning. Thank you Tony, this weekend review was one of your best; crystal.
    Big picture look at monthly http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p85684969302&a=451551264
    may have to be Stockcharts member to see all the indicators

  32. mjtplayer says:

    Another bad day for EU, UK & Swiss banks. This sector barely rallied off the Brexit lows, now several banks are back to the lows or at fresh new lows pre-market. The next crisis, right in front of us.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Safe haven run today
      30YR yield at 70 year lows
      10YR yield at ATLs

      • Where’s the depression?Guess they really DO want negative yields here in the US.

      • stmro says:

        The divergence between bonds and equities, PM and equities, market leaders and equities is pretty significant. Last week’s rally was driven by defensive sectors.

      • aahmichael says:

        This has been going on for 13 months. I don’t often make market calls on this blog, but I did mention this one back in the middle of January, when the 10yr was above 2.05:

        phil1247 says:
        January 25, 2016 at 9:02 am
        treasury long bond cycles topping …selling bonds here

        aahmichael says:
        January 25, 2016 at 9:42 am
        Really? I’m certainly no expert on bonds, but I see the weekly chart of TNX being on the verge of a breaking down through the wedge support. That could easily take it back down to 1.40.

        aahmichael says:
        January 25, 2016 at 11:10 am
        I see the 10-year as a safe haven play. It’s done nothing since the May high to show me anything different than that. (BTW, the see gold as a safe haven play now, as well.)

    • EL MATADOR says:

      MJT, we have some shooting star across multiple indices …. GO BEARS!

      • mjtplayer says:

        Major Bradley turn window Friday through today, strongest turn window all year – nice time for a rally to end (Friday) and a turn lower. For July, the bears need to keep the indices below the June highs and preferably undercut the June/post-Brexit lows. Doing that would set-up a plunge down to test the low 1,800’s and the bottom of the trading range sometime during the historically treacherous Aug – Oct time period.

    • vivelaamo says:

      FTSE is a Safe Haven. 😉 Everything down but the FTSE!

  33. Jack Sparrow says:

    as futures have completed their correction count over last two days…seems like atleast intially it would rally from a negative open

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      then one drop–and then move up to 2110 region….lets see too much speculation here

  34. rd3777 says:

    Stocks down,oil down,GBPUSD new low,Nikkei down…ect

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Hey Wonder Man, ya see that NG plunger today…I was early shorting it and in some pain but now all smiles =)

      • wanderer says:

        Good for you, El Mat. I still don’t like the idea of “speculative” trades. In my world, everything is strictly non-speculative.

    • wanderer says:

      I am going to post one part of summary at a time, to see which one does not go through. I just need to figure which one gets censored.

      • wanderer says:

        1. There is a crisis of faith among elliotticians, a chaos and vacillation in the masses, as Karl Marx would put it. The source of the crisis is the split among different schools of thoughts with respect to EW theory. There are Catholic (i.e. orthodox) elliottitans who insist on the notion of the papacy (Elliott, Prechter, Neely, Williams), and on following the rigid doctrine of counting the waves. In this blog, TraderJoe leads the catholic movement. Then there are protestant elliotticians, represented by Tony Caldaro, who reject the papacy (i.e. the authority of the traditional EW founders), and inject new rules. For example, one of the novel rules is that even if the market makes an all time high, it can still be considered bear market. The third denomination, represented by rd3777, are heretic elliotticians. They flatly reject all EW rules altogether, and come up with their own.

      • wanderer says:

        2. Gary (formerly Holly) issued a public challenge: either state what it will take you to switch your long term positions, or you are a coward. Luckily, I am exempted, as I have no long term positions or long term views.

      • wanderer says:

        3. The top 4 most frequently used words and phrases in this blog were:
        a) “Have a good weekend, Tony”
        b) “astro”
        c) “ABC”
        d) suicide
        From this sampling, one might deduce that Tony spends his days teaching English alphabet to aliens, and by the end of the week, he gets so frustrated and depressed, that everyone gets concerned about his mental health, and wishes him a speedy recovery over the weekend.

      • wanderer says:

        5. The rest of the comments were the usual drivel about various zoo animals: zebras, black swans, bulls, bears, and pigs. Nothing new there.

      • wanderer says:

        Hmm, nothing gets censored when posted one thing at a time. Maybe WordPress does have a limit on the number of words in a single post.

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