Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then choppy session, DOW -49

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 9am the FHFA housing index was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.7%. Then at 9:30 FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2089 close and continued to rally. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.53M v 5.45M. Around 11am the SPX hit 2100 and then started to pullback. The pullback continued throughout the afternoon and the market closed at SPX 2085, just above the 2084 low.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:39, then new home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied up to SPX 2100, and just like Monday pulled back for the rest of the day. The SPX has remained in about a 1% trading range, despite opening higher all three days this week. UK, EU vote tomorrow. We continue to count three waves up from last week’s SPX 2050 low: 2080-2063-2101. Today’s decline could have been the fourth wave, unless it drops below SPX 2080. Market remains within the important SPX 2026-2121 range, and this week’s upper range ahead of the vote. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2121 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day oversold. Best to your Brexit trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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406 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. EL MATADOR says:

    covered all ES longs and added a small spec short at ES 2105.75 gonna test the ON water pump

  2. Annual Russell Rebalancing tomorrow!
    Additions and Deletions as well as some lower index weightings…. like AAPL.

  3. …. and the never ending “B” wave just keeps going….

  4. dan pulford says:

    Scalped it up and scalped it down and now I hold long TNA overnite. If anyone follows me, don’t bug me as we both may get lost. VIXter

  5. dan pulford says:

    SP-500 has a wall of support at 2110. Holding TNA overnite. VIXter

  6. There’s your PPT.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    We’ve closed near the wall of resistance. It should smash through during the night to gap up again tomorrow.

  8. purplember says:

    sold 1/2 my longs from 2056 SPXL

  9. so much for the Bears, another total anilation.

  10. Bob Sagget says:

    Indexes accelerating into the close. This is exciting!

    There is a lightning rod event propelling the markets steep ascent. What is it?

    Oh yeah, the decades-old status quo between the UK and EU will be maintained. Awesome! 🙂

  11. dan pulford says:

    TNA breakout to new high of day. VIXter

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Does anyone here honestly trade for a living?

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Why does everyone think Brexit reault will cause a sell off. I don’t get it? It’s the only bit of uncertainty holding the market back.

    • If there is BREXIT it would roil the financial markets and if there is none, it was anticipated so much over the last week by the financial markets that there would be profit taking. Now it is trading with much complacency.

    • Jimbo says:

      It just all feels a bit strange.. the odds of a brexit are 7/1..!! If the bookies have it right then its a done deal but yet the FTSE is still below the April highs when the brexit odds were 5/2

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      There is so much uncertainty its not even funny but people don’t want to look at it simple as that

      Unless you think earnings China the Fed and Europe are certain

      • vivelaamo says:

        What is certain is CB have been proping up markets like crazy and hav prevented a bear market. There is scope for an explosion to the up side. I don’t want to see it come without a drop first. That is my biggest worry. The charts and the CB worldwide monetry policy is telling us the move up is inevitable.

  14. Here is my update of the ES intraday count:

    We are inside some triangle now before doing an extended fifth wave now. This last impulsive waveshould occur sometime before 10pm today. It seems like the outcome of BREXIT will trigger a sell-off after closing today’s day-time hours with strengh and possibly some part of the after hours (<10pm) with strength as well.

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Need one more big correction to get out and back in. just one!

  16. dan pulford says:

    Back in TNA. VIXter

  17. kvilia says:

    So this is the trading pickle I hate to be in. Based on the recent days pattern I anticipated the sell-off into the close with a spike up after Brexit. Well, the boys are running it up, and I certainly don’t want to stay with UVXY bag overnight on such a day. What’s going to happen is that I’ll sell into the close, and tomorrow UVXY will skyrocket. Sigh.

  18. There is a near-perfect hit on 5 = 0.618 x net (1 to 3), and a five count up wave is likely. Any higher high (or near equal high >= 90% of the recent down wave) is likely a “b” wave of a larger fourth wave in a FLAT or TRIANGLE which would alternate with the sharp wave down of Jun 17.

    SPX - Intraday - Jun-23 1444 PM (15 min)


    • Careful guys, I can see the FED showing his hand right now. Trying to save the day. Hoping tomorrow if no Brexit all will get back to normal.

    • blackjak100 says:

      This looks very wrong in my opinion because of the disproportion between waves ii & iv. HOWEVER, it meets all the rules so it’s a possibility. The DZZ meets all the guidelines and has the ‘right look’. Both counts suggests a selloff following the vote.

      TJ, i need to know one thing. Where did your 5 down count from 2121 go? I saw it one day and never saw it again.

      • bj100 … I clearly stated on here, that because of the higher high on June 7th – which had ‘motive’ character to it in the S&P500, the downward expanded flat was likely invalidated. On this site last weekend, I not only posted this daily count, I also posted a completed video explaining it.

        SPX - Daily - Jun-23 1523 PM (1 day)


        • blackjak100 says:

          OK, saw that chart. I think that’s where I posted 2 daily candlesticks not touching the lower trendline suggests a trend change at int degree especially with the failed breakout on the weekly chart. Let’s see how it plays out.

      • .. on that “sell off after the vote” .. yes .. sometime after the vote. But just bear in mind b waves ‘can’ get quite large upward if they want to. So, it could sell on Friday, or it could wait to Monday. So, again, that just gives me ‘patience and flexibility’ for now.

    • .. upward b wave has now met the “greater than or equal to 90%” test. Can still go farther if it wants.

  19. dan pulford says:

    Matador: Cycle Wave I Starting on 9/30/1932-3/31/37, VIXter sees 5 waves up, followed by Cycle Wave II an ABC down ending on 6/30/1942, followed by a humungus Cycle Wave III up. The VIXter

  20. Jack Sparrow says:

    in futures – there have been two moves up since yesterdtay…and this is looking like a 4th traingle correction since morning

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      or simple abc

      • fionamargaret says:

        Are you doing futures during the day too Jack – If i was doing that i would get hooked and play 24 hrs… I seem to remember you mentioning 2104….I am out, should i be doing something…did you see doesn’t usually go over 22. Thank you xxxxx
        Made 2g but that is nothing to your futures i am sure.
        Talk later if you have time, and we will play again tomorrow…….thanks

  21. so we are like 3 point from the high with 79 minutes left. Markets not blinking. Should be interesting close. Im short and going to hold over night. don’t trust Mr market

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