Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then sideways, DOW -58

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures, however, were lower overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported lower: 1164K v 1172K, and Building permits were reported higher: 1138K v 1116K. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2078 close and continued lower. With one 5 point bounce along the way the market hit SPX 2063 by 11:30. Then it started to rise. The rally continued until 2pm when the SPX hit 2075. Then the market dipped to close at SPX 2071.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.00%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude gained $2.00, Gold rallied $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Today the Q2 GDP est. remained unchanged at +2.8%.

The market opened lower today, on options expiration, despite the rally in Asia/Europe. The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2063. Then a rally to SPX 2075 ended the range for the day as the market closed at 2071. Ever since last Friday’s gap down opening the market has had a difficult time sustaining any type of rally. Possibly the Brexit vote this coming Thursday is keeping this market indecisive. Overall market remains in the SPX 2026-2121 range, as it has for the past 2.5 months. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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49 Responses to Friday update

  1. Mr are you going to play Brexit?I’m not looking for a recommendation,just some strategery(as “W” would say)-if you have one.Which way do you see it going?Thanks.

  2. torehund says:

    Brexit heating up further..

    • rd3777 says:

      Pat Condell has a great understanding of the criminal syndicate or black nobility and it is the same here in the U.S.

    • How do you see it Torehund?

      • torehund says:

        As far as the market is concerned the result is a non-issue, there is a major fractal coming up soon in the Eur/Usd, regardless of outcome pundits will twist the big move as they see it fit.
        I think the Usd is going to skyrocket, but the opposite can also happen. I used to be pretty clever at spotting major road crosses. Choosing the direction by the way is always the major problem, and moves are often so quick that its mentally difficult to jump in on the go.

        On behalf of human freedom, Bremain is another nail in the totalitarian coffin. Alternatively Bremains causes a revolution, preferably a soft one….
        It spooks me, I am not in favor of bureaucracy as it dehumanizes the employees.
        There are plenty of ways to waist time that isn’t harmful to fellow citizens, like going to the beach or taking care of the old.

        • Supposedly,a surprising surge in Brexit”Leave” voters…post shooting.Also,supposedly..a lot of liquidity (stock buying)will be unleashed in the event of “Leave”.Seems like bonds would rally in flight to quality–though they have already 30 basis points.Is it sell the news?Stocks correcting–is it buy the news?In a manipulated world market,it’s a coin flip.

          • torehund says:

            Government is in trouble (I would think) and that would imply currency risk and bond risk, but there could be fake moves before the final big push, so telling the outcome beforehand and in the middle of the panic is inherently difficult.

          • You of all people here should remember that 1865 is going on 18 weeks next week with no retrace. I say this because you were one I remember who is aware of this. Most since 2013 is 20 weeks unfilled, and maybe 1 since 2009 didn’t have a retrace by week 22. Three or four were in weeks 19 or 20, including the September/October 2014 move down.

            So on that basis, there is some possibility that what comes next is a big and fast move down either as a C wave to lower lows, or something like a wave 2 of P5 up (or whatever a new bull wave would be called).

            Week 20 ends July 8th.

  3. bud67 says:

    Friday Close Thinking for Monday.
    SP500 – Buy at or above 2065.
    SP market is Bullish. …end

    • ewmarkets says:

      I’m surprised you’re bullish. Normally when market is bearish like right now (VIX close to 20 is bearish), you would call for further downside.

      • bud67 says:

        No more comments from me.

      • bud67 says:

        Not making comments
        going forward. This end’s
        my writing.

        • ewmarkets says:

          Sorry, I didn’t mean anything negative. I was just surprised. And I may add, pleasantly surprised since I was holding long into the weekend. When I saw you making a bullish call, it made me feel more confident about my position. In the past, I’ve held long and saw you making bearish calls and then it turned out my long position was ill-timed. As it turned out, you were absolutely right this time about that bullish call. Great job!

  4. captbara says:

    SPX:$HUI due for a bounce. Weekly MACD curling up

  5. From Jesses Cafe….still love this chart–silver to 22?

  6. torehund says:

    no more rolling stone ?

    Good weekend to Tony and all, including Nelson🙂

  7. phil1247 says:


    everything turn out ok with vet results ??

  8. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al. Any news on the dog? —P.S is his name Elliott?!

    Monday’s fullmoon needs to bring a rally in order to save the following count…

  9. fishonhook says:

    Tony see a mention of a count in the updates anymore
    Not that I blame you . I do agree that CB interference has messed up any EW possibilities

  10. EL MATADOR says:

    Thx Tony,

    pathetic close today. Weekly candles are dominant over yday’s candle…..I see it no other way but a revisit of 2025ish May low. Any rally over weekend is a blessing short…..
    enjoy your weekend everyone

  11. rd3777 says:

    Thanks Tony…the big money continues their stealth selling ….though the ES did dump after the close….a 3rd wave in progress.

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