Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -58

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.9%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 Export (1.0% v +0.5%)/Import (+0.3% v +0.1%) prices were reported higher, and Retail sales were reported higher: +0.5% v +1.3%. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2079 close, bounced to 2081 in the opening minutes, then headed lower. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.4%. The market declined until it hit SPX 2064 just past 11am. Then it rallied to SPX 2075 by 12:30, before retesting 2064 by 3pm. After that the market rallied into the close, ending the day at SPX 2075.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term remains the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI and NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then the FOMC statement at 2pm. Today Q2 GDP est. was reported higher: +2.8% v +2.5%.

The market opened lower again today for the fourth day in a row. And for the third day in a row it tried to rally after the open but gradually headed lower. At today’s SPX 2064 low the market had retraced nearly 61.8% of the entire 2026-2121 uptrend. Quite a four day decline after a three week advance. Currently the market is at an interesting juncture. Should the market decline to SPX 2026, it would display three completed trends up from the February 1810 low which could be labeled all of Major wave B. Should the market find support above that level, then rally above SPX 2121, the uptrend would be extending and the market dynamics would be far more positive. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Short term momentum ignored yesterday’s positive divergence, was extremely oversold at the low, then bounced to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: neutral

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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279 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. stan502 says:

    GDX daily http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72442486413&a=454439930
    hold long based upon PMO buy and Copp Curve buy and LT tactical allocation; bullish engulfing is nice. Had me worried Phil but my time horizon is long(er)

  2. Vemala Siva says:

    elmadator and sparrow perfect timing

  3. EL MATADOR says:

    I could not have been more wrong 😉

    EL MATADOR says:
    June 14, 2016 at 11:10 am
    If it’s gonna bounce this is the time to bounce back up to 2085 pivot zone than crap back down to retest 2025ish low

    EL MATADOR says:
    June 14, 2016 at 1:00 pm
    How convenient is this….looks like “they” are gonna hold near the lows and start the BTD during the ON so “they” can squeeze the cash shorts on the open tomorrow….geez

  4. Vemala Siva says:

    i vote for 2035

  5. Vemala Siva says:

    now watch 2050 or 2035 for bottom in coming days

  6. kvilia says:

    That’s it, out of longs, missed short entry as usually. Extension shorts continue.

  7. Jack Sparrow says:

    thank you thank you

    Jack Sparrow says:
    June 15, 2016 at 8:20 am
    so in futures we do a fifth of the C of the 4th this morning to 2084/85 then fed announcement and then we go for fifth down…. lets see if this plays out

  8. Vemala Siva says:

    hope all enjoyedddd

  9. Vemala Siva says:

    Vemala Siva says:
    June 15, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    last 30min fallll will be there

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Janet blah blah blah – these fed meetings mean nothing anymore and the market may sense that. No hikes in 2016 and maybe one in 2017.

  11. Sandra Dons says:

    Close is green….damn

    Seems we’ll never fall down here….

  12. Igor says:

  13. Page says:

    Market takes off as soon FOMC meeting ends.

  14. blackjak100 says:

    pretty amazing they take it to the 38.2% retrace within 1-2 cents and it stops. Still 50 min to go so it could change.

  15. magnus1234 says:

    I have been a regular listener of the ECB press confs for the last 8-10 years or so because it is part of my job. But these FED pres conf. are new to me. I don not how to put it… but it is complete gibberish to me… ECB is a wonder of clarity compare to FED.

  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Yellen before the housing crisis (btw if you think she sees the negative consequences from constant and insane intervention think again) ……………….

    In my view, it makes sense to organize one’s thinking around three consecutive questions –three hurdles to jump before pulling the monetary policy trigger. First, if the bubble were to deflate on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble?

    My answers to these questions in the shortest possible form are, “no,” “no,” and “no.”

  17. Looks like BTD on dollar ahead of Brexit–capping gold.

  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I think the FED trying to connect the dots on their dot diagram isnt too much different than a three year old’s connect the dot diagram

  19. vivelaamo says:

    The bounce is done. Can see spx closing down.

  20. kvilia says:

    I am long using XIV from yesterday morning, and although market is drifting lower, I think there will be a spike up today. Seeing this as an opportunity to close long trade and enter short position. I personally dont see markets making ATH when Fed is backing off from raising interest rates. Fed is trapped, and the game is over. I think the C wave is here. Tomorrow should be a sharp move lower.

  21. johnnymagicmoney says:

    all you need to know about next 43 FED meetings

    they will say two things at all meetings

    1) economy is improving
    2) they will continue to monitor the economic situation and will normalize if conditions warrant a hike

    we could have a Mad Max world and they still would be saying the economy is improving. At what point does the market say that they are incompetent and dishonest? That’s the million dollar question

    • aahmichael says:

      re: “At what point does the market say that they are incompetent and dishonest?”

      Bonds and Gold have never wavered in their opinion of the FED’s BS.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        well when I say market I mean equity markets …………..yes bond boys say BS I agree

        I have never understood gold – where do you think gold can go over the next two years Mikey?

        • aahmichael says:

          Jonathan, I have no idea where it will go tomorrow, much less two years from now. I only know that since the December low, it did an impulse wave up, and then a 38.2% corrective wave back to the 4th wave of previous degree. That’s standard EW behavior. If that count is correct, then we should be in the embryonic stages of another impulse wave up, and once 1305 is exceeded, then it’s logical to expect it to go to 1450 at a minimum. That’s where the current upwave would equal the initial upwave. I got long GLD five months early at 105. On 7/31/16 that position becomes a long term gain, which puts an extra 15.5% in our accounts. By the way, I don’t understand gold either. I bought it simply as a ‘flight to safety’ play, as part of my bearish equity outlook. It also didn’t hurt that it was almost 44% off its highs at the time.

  22. Vemala Siva says:

    last 30min fallll will be there

  23. captbara says:

    Fed sees max 1 rate hike this year.

  24. vivelaamo says:

    So fed has as good as admitted things are a mess and there won’t be any rate rises anytime soon. So how does this justify new all time highs? Surely just keeping the market stable and preventing a crash should be deemed a success?

  25. johnnymagicmoney says:


    There once was a blog that discussed he or she
    Twas hard to know truth when bloggers can’t see
    So to reveal now if woman or man
    Say “Love Hole” or “Love Wand” or “Danielle” or “Dan”

    Yours Truly
    Love Wand

  26. vivelaamo says:

    Spx hasn’t even retraced 38.2% of the downward move yet. This bounce is to be sold in to…

  27. same movie, bears looking for a big move down. Lucy pulls the ball from Charlie brown. If theres a bull path or a bear path. Bull path always wins. would expect up next 3 days.

    Good luck

  28. Jack Sparrow says:

    the fact 2079 did not break just now opens up possibilities to upside let see- 2079 needs to be taken out for bears

  29. As long as the EU keeps pouring the QE to get bonds negative,we can’t raise rates this month or year or the dollar would wipe out equities.Our 10 year keeps getting a bid and gold loves it.Brexit is a question mark…who knows how traders decide to interpret stuff like this–usually bullishly from my experience.The euro should get a haircut and so should gold–logically.But is a brexit deflationary and bullish for bonds?Back to bullish for gold.Anyways I ve been holding GDX now since late December and will continue til further notice.XJY looks good so why not?

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