weekend update


The week started off at SPX 2099. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday the market moved higher, without dropping below SPX 2099, and hit SPX 2121. Then on Thursday and Friday the market pulled back to SPX 2090, before ending the week at 2096. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.0%. Economic reports for the week were light and mixed. On the downtick: investor holdings, consumer credit/sentiment. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, and Industrial production.

LONG TERM: neutral

Last weekend we presented our opinion of the bifurcation between the futures driven and cash driven US indices. The SPX/DOW/NDX all appear to be in a bear market rally, while the NYSE appears to be in a Primary wave V. The latter count is probably the most popular among in the EW world. As a result of this bifurcation we shifted our long term view to neutral.

While it is easy to look at a chart, after a market has progressed, and label it with what appears to be the most obvious count. We do not have that option with medium and long term trends. The OEW model quantifies these trends, and we are forced to label waves where they have actually began and ended. As a result, our labeling is not always what appears to be the most obvious count. Sometimes a potential count arises that few, if any, have even considered. We currently have such a count, but will not present it at this time as we await additional market data. All we will say is that it is more bullish than either of the two counts presented above.


Currently the P5 scenario for the NYSE is progressing positively. As that index moved above the Major 1 high just this week, in Major 3, before the late week pullback. Potential upside P5 targets are posted on the chart: starting with a marginal new high, then NYSE 11,740 and NYSE 11,930.


Should any of these targets be reached, this would of course suggest new all time highs in the SPX. Whenever the SPX makes new highs the bear market rally count will have to be updated. The February SPX 1810 low would be relabeled Primary A, and the advance from that low an ongoing Primary B. When P5 in the NYSE completes, Primary wave C in the SPX and, a bear market in the NYSE would soon be underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend, from the recent SPX 2026 downtrend low, made a new high this week and a new high for the rally from the February SPX 1810 low. This suggests, like the NYSE, the overall market is currently in its third wave up from the February low. And, is likely to continue to move higher.


The internal count for the February to April uptrend has come under some scrutiny lately. We have been presenting it as a double three corrective advance. For a corrective bear market rally this seems appropriate. However, after a closer look, it is possible to count this uptrend as impulsive by adding just one small wave that we may have overlooked. While OEW does consistently quantify medium/long term trends. It does not consistently quantify small waves within medium term trends. Bull/bear market characteristics are different, due to volatility. Therefore, one must know exactly which is unfolding to apply the proper short term metric.

Currently we are watching the recent pullback with interest. As we think it will clear up the corrective/impulsive medium term question. For now we will leave the short term counts as presented, subject to change. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.


As noted above there are two possible short term counts within the last uptrend, and this uptrend as well. Putting the last uptrend aside, we look at the current uptrend. We have been counting this uptrend, from SPX 2026, as an a-b-c. Yet when we include a small overlooked wave, using a bullish metric, we arrive at five waves up to SPX 2121: 2056-2047-2103-2085-2121. Which count is correct, the corrective or implusive? The current pullback, from SPX 2121, should provide the answer.


Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2121 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold during Friday’s pullback. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mixed on the week for a gain of 0.3%.

European markets were all lower for a loss of 2.9%.

Commodity equity indices were mixed for a loss of 0.2%.

The DJ World index is in an uptrend but lost 0.8% on the week.


Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend, big volume Friday, and gained 0.4% on the week.

Gold looks like it is in an uptrend and gained 2.4% on the week.

The USD is also in an uptrend and gained 0.7% on the week.


Tuesday: export/import prices, retail sales and business inventories. Wednesday: the PPI, NY FED, industrial production, and the FOMC meeting ends. Thursday: the CPI, weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED and the NAHB. Friday: building permits, housing starts and options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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520 Responses to weekend update

  1. phil1247 says:

    micro shorts and longs breaking

    ? triangle

  2. stmro says:

    Europe is cratering and about to exceed their April lows. I think we’ll be getting the panic trade over the next couple of days before a big exhaustion bounce.

  3. fotis2 says:

    It ”may” bounce off the TL or it ”may not” now how’s that for a view!!

  4. Jimbo says:

    Is this the start of a big 3rd wave down? 1st wave finished in Feb and 2nd wave finished on Thursday?

  5. In 2 business trading days, SPX is looking like bottomless pit..All gone..

  6. captbara says:

    Close at lows, bounce overnight

  7. phil1247 says:

    2066 target in sight ………….

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Still in business for now 😊

  9. EL MATADOR says:

    go ahead bulls, I dare you to buy this dip… show us bears your bullish conviction

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      i am not a bull but i am buying for the bounce right here

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Jack how many bounce have you tried buying today?

        • kvilia says:

          Exactly my question. I am so stupid to miss UVXY entry. Just picking peanuts until the big move happens, ehh… Not that the trend is over, there is no even retracement to take a short position.

        • Jack Sparrow says:

          i have gotten 20 points from yesterday evening all on the long side- btw i am bearish but i like to contrarian to myself

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            and I didnt buy at the close seems like a 5 wave structure down from 2095. which is yet to be completed

  10. My take: Looks like we hit around 2078 or so today. Rebound to 2100 tomorrow. After that we drop fast to perhaps 1990’s. All within 5 to 8 more trading days.

    • aahmichael says:

      Geeze. Talk about Whipsaw Willie. Earlier today you insisted that the market would hit 2128 by Wednesday. Last week you said that the market had already confirmed a breakout to the upside and that the most powerful leg of the rally was already in progress.

      • That’s called playing the market. I never hold to short term plays if the market indicates otherwise. Expected the next big drop to hit 1990’s but expected it to be later in the year. now seems likely it hits this next week or so. I bet options no more than one week out. Can’t stick to a long term expectation if you are playing short term. long term i see no reason to negate a powerful leg up. The November lows should not be touched for another 12 or more months. I have Calls that I will exit (IF) we get that rally I expect tomorrow and possibly Wednesday.

        You seem to stick to a theme no matter how the moves occur. me, I play what’s in front of me and once my zones get taken out I reverse position.

        • aahmichael says:

          Holly, why have you changed your name? Is it because you said you wouldn’t come back here until 2135 was taken out?

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            thats a good one…conspiracy theories

            • aahmichael says:

              Some things are completely transparent. While she changed her name, her writing style and content are word for word exactly the same, and her trading style is also identical. She’s the only one on the blog who writes never ending dissertations on macro economics and fundamentals, but then trades by buying extremely short term options. She’s also the only one who refers to her trades as “bets.”

          • And I haven’t! Why are you always a bear? Seems it matters not how the market reacts. Is there any zone you quit or sell any profits? The mega-bear never sees an end to a drop. Please tell me I am wrong. I have targets for both short and long term. if they disobey me I don’t try to pretend the market is wrong. We are in a solid bull market and have been for 7 years now. If the BREXIT causes damage to that trend and cuts it off completely I will play it accordingly. No need for EGO or proving how smart I am. I want to make money. Call me a clown as long as I keep profiting.

            • aahmichael says:

              Holly, I was the most bullish guy on the planet from October 2011 through May 2015. The market topped out at that time. It’s been a bear market ever since.

              • Great timing! I think you missed the tail end by a few years. After the silly noise is over watch the domestic economic numbers. How can you ignore the fact that the consumer is in their best shape of decades and still see a deep winter. Not logical. Pent up demand is there. GDP should hit over 3 percent by end of this year.

              • aahmichael says:

                Holly, you can talk about the consumer all you want. I focus on price action only.

            • CB says:

              Gary, are you a rep for Rick Ackerman -( I’ve seen Rick’s posts on Twitter 🙂 )

              Thanks Tony!

              • CB says:

                the 1st parenthesis is a typo- pls disregard ..

              • A mega bear that sees crash every single day. I was his nemesis. Ask him just how well I did against their silly assumptions. his system is a good one but like the people here he just doesn’t trust it when it goes against his assumptions.

            • CB says:

              That’s fascinating. I like your answer, Gary. Diversity of opinions is great, isn’t =)
              And maybe they’ll even stop calling you Holly 🙂

      • Aah but Michael, you should have listened to The Vixter?

  11. Bob Sagget says:

    Bring on the big $SPX bounce!

  12. phil1247 says:

    thru target
    in new ext shorts
    testing ext long

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Looking more and more probable major 2 is not done and will be an expanded flat.

  14. captbara says:

    ES bounce coming at 2081-ish, daily 13 EMA. Any lower and it’s not an ED

  15. Bob Sagget says:

    Let’s take an inventory here. Brexit odds increasing. Trump POTUS odds increasing. Vix increasing. Treasuries increasing. Gold increasing. $SPX and Oil…not so much.

  16. where or where does this close at today?

  17. Bob Sagget says:

    Donald Trump is speaking. He’s got the (verbal) AR-15 out. It’s pointed at HIllary.

  18. Jack Sparrow says:

    where is trader joe,.he put in a lot of effort in his yesterday”s post….i hope he got adequate appreciation…..

    • Using quite precise mechanical tools, we are not down to the lower channel line yet. I would like to see the market ‘test’ that potential channel to prove the case that it’s a relevant trend line. If it also makes a ‘false under-throw’ of the trend line that might be a fairly strong signal that a wave three is to proceed.

      SPX - Daily - Jun-13 1516 PM (1 day)


  19. mike7x says:

  20. fotis2 says:

    2085 looks like its breaking bounce off TL? lets see..

  21. rd3777 says:

    I guess I’m not the only one looking for a crash….wow…VIX

    • stmro says:

      SP500 seems drastically overpriced compared to VIX
      SP500 seems drastically overpriced compared to European and Asian indices
      SP500 seems drastically overpriced compared to bonds
      SP500 seems drastically overpriced compared to traditional carry currencies e.g. JPY

      I wonder which is the odd one out.

  22. Bob Sagget says:

    Ajaysinghi – You’re green close is in jeopardy! ‘;-)

    • Ajay Singhi says:

      Already updated: Not going to happen today. Was expecting ‘slight red close’.

      That too seems to be in danger but reversal is coming soon. 2100 will be crossed on Tuesday. That will be the last chance to get off the never ending P5 train.

    • Ajay Singhi says:

      It is almost impossible to anticipate an ED in advance. The 2085-2120 rise was an ED so at the minimum 2085 had to be touched before reversal but an ED to finish an ED is rather rare though, not impossible.

      We may still get close around 2090, gapdown next day to break today’s low, test 2080 and then off to 2104/2107. What’s certain is 2100 is coming. We just anticipate the probable path and adjust accordingly.

      Lets see.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Ajay says “What’s certain is 2100 is coming”

  23. mjtplayer says:

    SPY critical support at $208 – the uptrend line from the Feb lows.


  24. phil1247 says:

    2072.5 net traditional short 15 min target esu6

  25. fishonhook says:

    FTSE right at support of H and S
    SPX in a huge wedge.
    Could go either way.
    We are at the inflection point.

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