Friday update

SHORT TERM: market gaps down at open heads lower, DOW -120

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.2%. US index futures followed Europe lower, and gapped down at the open to SPX 2102. The market had closed at SPX 2115 yesterday. By 10am the SPX slipped below 2100, hit 2097, and then tried to rally. Also at 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 94.3 v 94.7. After a half hour bounce to SPX 2104 the market head lower again. Just past 3pm the market hit SPX 2090, bounced to 2098, then closed at 2096.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.20%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude dropped $1.60, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Yesterday, Q2 GDP est. was reported unchanged at +2.5%.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since last Tuesday’s pullback to SPX 2085. In the opening half hour the market dropped below SPX 2100, stayed in a 7 point range for three hours, then broke lower into the 2085 pivot range. After hitting SPX 2090 the market bounced into the close. For those counting this decline we have three waves down: 2108-2118-2090. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance now at SPX 2121 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold at the low. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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93 Responses to Friday update

  1. Crude mega divergence confirmed in monthly chart
    Believe that will reach $70 in MT

  2. stan502 says:

    Thanks Tony and all. One of the comments yesterday was about shorting GDX, my view was not sure. Here is my reason I have $Silver in a 5th up, I also had a cycle low signal in PSLV a couple of weeks ago as well. If Silver is leading, Gold will follow and you don’t want to short the miners. Avi is suggesting caution looking down in PM and I agree for a variety of reasons. If Europe begins to fall apart it is not hard to see both $US and Gold going higher together.

  3. rd3777 says:

    The only thing the stock market has worried about since the 2135 top in May 2015 is oil….everything else is just noise. The market has topped and a 2.5+ bear market is on tap at least.
    Notice oil topped in May 2015 also in wave a of combo (B) which finished on Wednesday. Also since oil was in a 3 wave structure since May 2015…so the market has been in a 3 wave triangle that ended @ 2121….now we should have a large Wave A down or 1 of a large (C) 5 waves down lasting into 2019 to 2020

  4. hohoho598 says:

    Where is wanderer…he/she has the most entertaining posts on this site.

    The “Justice League” (aka Fed) will soon kick in to support lil ‘ol market. All I see is confidence growing and good times ahead for a little while at least. GL bulls.

  5. fotis2 says:

    SPIEGEL Interview with Wolfgang Schäuble: ‘Britain Is a Leading Nation’German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble warns of the dangers of Brexit, talks about the EU’s crisis of confidence and considers the English fear of the penalty kick.

    Long story short please stay in the EU…..

    • cmucha68 says:

      Forget Schäuble. He has done everything wrong what can be done. Britain should leave EU and its damn bureaucracy. It will be much better economically. EU complaints because they will loose a country that paid huge amounts of money to the EU pot. That will fall apart. I assume that perhaps after a short shock UK stocks will soar heavily when investors recognize the advantage of being independent and flexible from a clumsy colossus.

  6. R D. says:

    Here is the Chart of this weeks action .Certainly it was a week of topping action.A Broadening top in the DJA which is very rare.To look at these stocks in the average there are plenty of terminal patterns stocks in downtrends with corrective moves up ending over this week.Do I think this is the top, absolutely.There is a top in force that is 2 years long of which this is the smaller fractal.Although they don’t ring the bell you would have to be oblivious not to look at the different averages and see that very few stocks are leading this rally.The downtrend in larger caps started today.

  7. pruthvi says:



    Hi, Hope all is well from your side.:)
    Now i need to know n clarify that ‘In NSEI weekly chart you had marked [2] or “a” wave @6825 and 25.1% down from the top to bottom, Weekly MACD enter in positive zone.At which nearest level we got confirmation that impulse wave start or more correction pending ?


    Prithvi Raulji

  8. 123 abc says:

    Tony, although the DOW is lagging in comparison to the SPX, is it correct to say the DOW also completed Minor-a at 18016 today?

  9. blackjak100 says:

    A count nobody is talking about and I’m not sure if it’s legit in OEW. However, I think it is….a subdividing Major 2 targeting 1985ish. Essentially, my original target. In the end, this would gain probability with a decisive break of 2085. I will repost this tomorrow as well.

  10. Jim Guthery says:

    If the market is crashing the media has done a great job this time of pointing it out to the retail investor.

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Or does Soros get all the credit!

      • fionamargaret says:

        Well Jim, if indeed Soros is short, he is one of the many hedge funds that would have to cover if the market looks slightly out of control to the upside…perhaps the Bank of England would like to join in to give him some of his own medicine…..
        I think the poll will be to remain…and that would be the start…the side of the banks…
        Too easy to be short….x

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and surely it would benefit the economy more if the stock market ran away to the upside giving the little investor money in his pocket…….

  11. Se non é vero,é ben trovato,eco

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Is it me or does nobody actually take note of TC’s updates anymore but just use this site to just communicate with each other?

    • 123 abc says:

      “For those counting” —perhaps Tony is thinking the same?!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Sweet talk Page Vive, you will feel better…maybe reported on Caldaro Confidential tho’.

      • Ajay Singhi says:

        Hi Fiona,

        Great call on Crude. I missed a wave and was a bit early on the top call.

        It seems crude is about to get a bounce soon. Whats your take and levels?



        • fionamargaret says:

          Ajay, I shall work out the oil bands for you…I’ll have stuff for you probably Sunday. x
          Caldaro Confidential had it slightly wrong on oil – The Saudis did not want it to fall below 50, and the latest was they wanted it between 50-60. Well, it is below that now, and the Saudis are back tomorrow, so………I’ll find out.
          In my original work on oil, I had it going to 55, then correcting to 40-45, before going higher again.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I think the point I was trying to make is Tony’s blog has turned in to great site for traders and people interested in charts etc to communicate. It’s just many great posts get lost or missed every day there is a new update. This site has massive potential.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …absolutely the site has massive potential…There are the true technical ideas which get mingled with the characters who communicate their ideas after hours… with a little love interest thrown in. The traders become true characters, with real feelings. I see much more in this…
          when briefs become banal….

    • I am new to this traders click and i’m just an old trader in ew principle. I have spent a lot of time in other clubs such as this one, over the last decade or so. Tonys market guidance is just what he says it is, free to choose. That in itself speaks volumes of his goodness of character as a true brother is. His updates are the mortar that binds us together. Sincerely The vixter.

  13. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I have two major counts for the upcoming move

    Count one is market goes down and count two and it’s my alternate count is market goes up

    The main count is my Constanza count and my alternative count comes from JMML (Johnny Magic Macro Love)

    If any of you want to sign up to my new site you can follow me at

    I have two subscribers so far…my two dogs

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Crap I just clicked on my made up site and it diverts me to


      • CB says:

        just a wild guess : your pheromone biz, Johnny, is better than trading equities.. (?) lol
        And how about selling pheromones using your (substantial) poetic skills….. it could be a #huuuge success =)
        Sorry Tony, it’s Friday and we’re kidding =) Enjoy your weekend everyone!

        • wanderer says:

          Indeed. Looks like some threads have 200,000 replies. Pheromones talk sells, market talk does not.

          • CB says:

            Yes, pretty amazing , isn’t it? The stuff must be addictive =)
            Just like your ” wanderer confidential” is quickly becoming addictive …insightful market commentary with a little bit of “hot sauce.” =)
            Market talk? It all depends on who’s talking =) And, as we know, there is no shortage of talent here at Tony’s blog =)

    • 123 abc says:

      That site stinks! 😉

  14. locanbbs says:

    What “uptrend”?
    Spx hourly –

  15. locanbbs says:

    Next month’s low at begin of July. Weaker markets could shoot on down. Then there should be a gradual bottoming out for an autumn recovery. At worst downtrend till beginning of 2017.

  16. locanbbs says:

    Three month cyclic low on next Wednesday.

    • Thanks for the helpful info. VIX’s broadening wedge pattern suggests that SPX will have a bigger fall than that of 01/2016 as I can see. If it’s a bigger fall to lower low, then Next Wednesday’s low is only the first step? It seems there’ll be a multi-week down trend in SPX based upon weekly RSI, which doesn’t seem to agree with a shallow correction and then a new ATH. Nice weekend!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Glad you are back Locan and not MIA……x

      • locanbbs says:

        Thanks for your interest. I have been “missing in (productive) action”, straightening out my automatic trading system, with interesting results: When I put the old algos online it turned out that there had to be too many open trades to get the expected results (i.e. drawdown was too great, a “typical” problem of computer optimizing). So now Spx e.g. is the prefered market, with a worse percentage of trades won, but the average loss is only about 2 points, whereas the Dow was previously preferred, with 100% wins but too many open trades to get that percentage.
        In general, up markets are more easily computerized than down or sideways markets, or is it just that they are more tightly “controlled” (Spx, Dow, Rut, Gold)?

  17. Big test next week with the FED, over the weekend China announces retail sales and industrial production. Now the news of BXEIT looking more likely, it will be an interesting week. Expect the wild side of the market to be back in vogue.

  18. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Enjoy your WE & Keep Cool

  19. Jack Sparrow says:

    i think some one mentioned 10 people can come up with 10 counts-
    -so t the move from 2025 to 2120 was B, and original move from 2111 to 2025 was A. now C takes us down to 2020 region and then 3 of PV resumes…

    – PV just ended now mother of corrections coming

    -we are in 2 of PV which may have just completed/

    the above are j bullish counts— I dont want to get started on bearish count….

  20. rd3777 says:

    Thanks TC….3 waves so far. My thoughts when oil starts a decline past history shows 4 or 5 red bars from the top. If that holds this market will go lower….we shall see.

  21. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, appreciate providing the count of the decline; looking forward to the OEWcc (coffee-club) this weekend.

    Correction: “2008-2018-2090” ought to be “2108-2118-2090”

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