Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rebound, DOW -20

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 264K v 267K. The market opened 7 points below yesterday’s SPX 2119 close. After dipping to SPX 2110, the market bounced to 2113 by 11am. Just after noon the market hit SPX 2108 and started to rally. The rally continued until 3:30 when the SPX hit 2118. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2115 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slid 70 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: consumer sentiment at 10am, and the Treasury deficit at 2pm.

The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 2108, and then rebounded. The pullback from yesterday’s SPX 2121 is small, so far, but a notable pullback nonetheless. Should the market dip below SPX 2100, then a retest of the 2085 pivot is possible. If not, we would expect the market to be making new uptrend highs soon. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum declined to oversold and then rebounded past neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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289 Responses to Thursday update

  1. micky says:

    I have the last wave up from 84 as an ending diagonal, therefore not an abc down but 5 waves. as always will see..

  2. stmro says:

    There we go – bears being bears as usual.

  3. phil1247 says:

    i fully expect to be looking at 2094 monday esu6

    taking some shorts off

    if it crashes so be it

  4. ajaysinghi says:

    At the minimum, we will see 2058 this month.

  5. phil1247 says:

    squeeze coming

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I love triple leveraged shorts on days like today


    Macro Love!!

    • blackjak100 says:

      it’s so obvious when you are losing money vs making just by your posts

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        It’s so obvious you make statements that are pure guesses …..stick to your counts BJ

        For the most pArt I moan when I sit idle during runs…all my hedges have been countered by defensive longs for a while

        Then in certain days I ramp the leverage with leveraged plays like I did a few days ago at 2019 ….I missed the whole move from 1810 but I didn’t lose money …I made money just could have made a lot more

    • stcoleridge says:

      The last time the VIX was above 17 was May 19th when the SPX bottomed at 2025.
      One of the two prices today is out of whack.

    • captbara says:

      Could be time to Costanza judging by your giddiness??

  7. allen1929 says:

    esm trading 1.25 under cash spx

  8. Possible “falling wedge” with (v) = 0.618 x net (i to iii). As follows. If that busts, then look for (iii) = 2.618 x (i). We need a good scary wave 2. Measure .. measure .. measure.

    SPX - Fifteen Minute - Jun-10 1506 PM (15 min)


  9. micky says:

    a few more points and it will look like 5 down to me, would like to see how TC counts this

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Even though 2085 has not been beached, I’m seeing concerns this may not be int ii. Volume high and no 60 min divergence. I remain flexible.

    • captbara says:

      Daily trying to find support on 34 EMA. 2070-2080 will need to hold for the ongoing bull case.

      • blackjak100 says:

        agree…preferably would like to see a max of one daily close below 2085 for the bullish case. Int 1 lasted 13 days so I would expect int ii to last 3-5 days and we are only in day 2. I haven’t changed my count yet, just pointing out some concerns. I did get long UPRO @ 2094. Safer than an option play right at the moment.

  11. phil1247 says:

    gld looks good

    gdx looks ready to collapse

    what about correlation??????????????????????

  12. phil1247 says:

    es squeeze brewing

  13. torehund says:

    Martin on the Richy Allen show..
    Good weekend Tony and all.

  14. ajaysinghi says:

    ‘Bull Fryday’ as promised. Do you still think it was coin flipping??

  15. captbara says:

    Surprising amount of action for a Fri before Fed and BoJ. Hmm

  16. nsteve24 says:

    No ramp into 2:30 close today for CL, looking for 48.62 gap fill

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    “Macro Love” (especially for Gary & Holly)

    Sometimes I feel I’ve got to
    Trade and buy
    Get quite long
    From the fear that you drive into the heart of me
    The faith I share
    The market goes nowhere
    And I’ve lost my mind
    For I toss and turn for the stocks I find

    Once I bought all of you
    Now I’ll run to you
    This tainted love you’ve given
    I give you all my monies give you
    Take my longs and take my margin
    Oh macro love
    Macro love

    Now I know I’ve got to
    Buy each day I’ve got to
    Buy each day
    You don’t really want my monies
    To make stocks right
    You need me to believe each night
    And you’ll think love is to pray
    But I’m sorry I don’t buy that way

    Once I bought in you (I sold)
    Now I’ll sell
    This Macro love you’ve given
    You made me buy this market driven
    Take my shorts and take them all
    Oh Macro love
    Macro love

    Don’t make me buy
    I cannot stand the way you move
    I love you though you hurt me so
    Now I’m going to sell all that you made me
    Macro love, Macro love
    Macro love, Macro love
    Short you baby, Macro love
    Short me baby, Macro love
    Macro love
    Macro love
    Macro love

  18. 123 abc says:

    Tony, was it incorrect to call the rise from 2026 to 2103 as a single significant wave? Instead, would it be more effective to call the entire rise from 2026 to 2120 labelled as Minute-a wave?

  19. rd3777 says:

    This market better hold 2084-82 could get dicey….JPN225 is going to pull everything down if it continues……..

  20. mjtplayer says:

    Short squeeze going on in the VIX futures. When you get these melt-up markets that turn into complacent, low volume drifting markets, traders pile-on on the “short the VIX” trade. When things reverse, the squeeze is enormous, which is why we’ve been seeing a VIX spiking into the 30’s+ on multiple occasions over the past 2 years. Not saying this is another instance, but it fuels and feeds upon itself very quickly – short covering begets more short covering, just like in the SPX over the past several months.

  21. A week ago I threw out the proposition that we would not bust through 2134 from 2118 simply because those charting this path we’re on,want to avoid a -div and therefore will wait for the MACD to catch up to the SPX.Just a theory as everything on here is.

  22. Bob Sagget says:

    Brexit is has a 10 point lead over Bremain.

    To the Europeans on this board. Is the independent “Independent?” i.e. Can we trust these numbers?

  23. wanderer says:

    Summary of today’s comments:

    1. Fiona and Jack are desperately trying to find each other all day, but both are just too busy. These days, Fiona spends her days talking the Saudi oil traders out of pushing the CL higher, while Jack is trying to become a Saudi oil trader.
    2. Will the P5 ever end?
    3. A game where grown up men fall on the field and cry every 5 minutes is called soccer. A game where the wives of the grown up men cry all the time is called football. Otherwise, it’s pretty much the same spiel.
    4. Every time the ES rolls over from one contract to another (June to September, today), EW commentators get utterly confused. It certainly looks like a Fed manipulation when the spread between SPX cash and ES future inexplicably jumps.
    5. Despite the assurances that there are only 2 possible counts (either 1 more or 2 more waves up), SPX sold sharply today.

    • stcoleridge says:

      June futures VIX contract is the big winner today. SPX should be a lot lower according to the VIX.

    • simpleiam says:

      Gotta love it! LOL!

      • CB says:

        lol…yeah, that’s hilarious, simple…..OEW harmony or E-harmony, that is the question🙂
        wanderer forgot to mention that Roger saw the first impulse down yesterday though, even though everyone got after him for “charting”..😉

        Thanks Tony – so back to hit-and-run markets, right? =)

  24. phil1247 says:


    extension short target hit ! at 2082

  25. Last wave was an ED. This first wave down should go at least at 202 SPY level.

  26. fishonhook says:

    Kudos to TJ
    So far he has nailed today’s squiggles

    “Since wave ii is a FLAT, then wave iv should be a Sharp (Zigzag, Double ZZ, etc.) or Triangle. Gap closed on the left.

    SPX – Fifteen Minute – Jun-10 1025 AM (15 min)”

  27. blackjak100 says:

    I have no concerns about this being int ii of major 3 unless 2085 is decisively broken. I’m no longer short or long $SPX at this moment

    • blackjak100 says:

      I did see the CCM model is getting whipsawed. He is mentioning possible failed breakouts already, but that’s why 2085ish is line in sand for me

  28. phil1247 says:

    ready to dump silver on any weakness

    targets just above

    im sure da boyz would love to pull the rug just before targets are hit

    just like they did with /CL .. pulling the rug out 8 cents from target wed am

  29. kvilia says:

    Rally into FOMC next week, careful.

  30. fishonhook says:

    If we stay down today, we will close out the week with negative divergence, FWIW

  31. cj32 says:

    update cr to CBZ

  32. simpleiam says:

    China importing lots of crude. Almost done…

    There’s also a link on CNBC regarding the Nigerian rebels. That’s been going on a long, long time, folks, so nothing to see there… Move on.

  33. During normal trading SPX unlikely to go above 2106. IMO, Heavy Shorts should be opened on Monday around that level. Offline, on Monday it may go to 2112. SPX is targeting 2038, rise to 2098, then fall heavily…It is over for all Bulls. By the way, Yellen makes good pies!

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      so far we have done A and B of correction, now C to uspside then we go down for one more leg…

      • Jack S, a lot of folks late comers are buying every support hoping will be a non event to downside as usual. Since still none believe this is wave 2
        This is the most dangerous behaviour like trying to sell every resistance when market is bullish.
        They will eventually get bear again at the bottom of 2.
        For now fear is a strong emotion than greed, will take it over quite soon. Market has no more buyer judging at volume.

    • ajaysinghi says:

      Some folks are still looking for a never ending P5.

      • AJ, it has been M1 of PV. We will se also new high. If nothing major happens in the time being.

        • ajaysinghi says:

          I know the counts you guys are looking for. The funny thing with ew is that you can have 10 guys have 10 different counts and everyone is convinced of his count unless proved wrong.

          And then a new count will emerge to justify the old one.

          Time will tell.


    • ogdenfripp says:

      Shrihas, earlier today you said ….. “This is how it will play…2106 NOW.

      Will rebound from 2101 levels to 2112 approx. BULLS will come back again with target of 2164, 2231, 2381..etc. It will fall again. Bears will cover and go long. , etc etc. ….”
      Where are you getting these targets from ? (not a trick question). Thanks. 2085 looking quite possible now.

  34. scottycj1 says:

    Feels like the tone has changed…..not the same buoyancy as last week

  35. captbara says:

    USDJPY stable, signaling bear trap? Looks like further yen weakness on the table.

  36. fishonhook says:


    Looks like you been calling the P5 and the short term squiggles pretty accurately.

    I think Brexit is something no one can foresee (the Fed is easier- no raise for sure).

    Out = truncated P5
    In = Full P5

  37. phil1247 says:


    ext long failing

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Hands up if you bought the dips! And they say markets are unpredictable. Hmmmmmm.

  39. NEWBIE says:

    We have a lot Bulls drinking the Kool aid here.

  40. gasman88 says:

    Market is trained to rally on Fridays, something to do with weekly or monthly options expiry. Green close?

  41. micky says:

    fut bounced off support and 1.6 of A , so as long as 96 holds .. it holds

  42. Glad we finally have a decent drop to call a correction. If we hold above 2085 we should see a sharp rebound and new highs to this leg up early next week. The channel from February, and the corrective move to 2020-2040 area was picture perfect in a well defined up trend. I believe the breakout event already happened but most bears will not be satisfied till 2035 is reached.

    How to play the BREXIT referendum? Bookies are still giving the margin to a stay vote but anything’s possible. Anyone going to place straddles right before the vote? It should cause some wild swings. I expect the premium on those bets would be high but most probably worth it.

  43. Ajay Singhi says:

    Final update on my call for 2085 today. 5 waves down done from the top. 2085 should be seen next week.

  44. So, as you all know, I am currently working with a FLAT wave sequence. As such, I ‘fully expect’ the downward wave to be just a correction. In the event the analysis is incorrect, here is the Primary 5 Truncation Count. This is ‘just’ an alternate for planning purposes, and will be discarded with any further higher high. So far, the count is working out acceptably that Primary 5 is continuing and not truncating at this level. The last upward wave would count with 2025 as a fourth wave.

    SPX - Two Week - Jun-10 1056 AM (2 week)

    The reason this count does ‘not’ work well, and is the ‘alternate only’ is that the five wave sequence upward would appear to be of ‘minor’ degree, and not be the required five waves of ‘intermediate’ degree.


    • ewmarkets says:

      Thanks, TJ. If 2025 is Wave 4, where is Wave 2?

      • It would be hard to argue that this five count up is not valid when you ‘squint’, but there are problems, including 1) lack of alternation, 2) degree of wave labels, 3) currently working on a FLAT wave, which ‘should be corrective, 4) and 5 not equal to 1, i.e. 5 shorter than 1, and FIbonacci 5th, it doesn’t channel well.

        Still it breaks no ‘rules’, has 3 = 1.618 x 1, and so it must be an alternate.

        SPX - Daily - Jun-10 1204 PM (1 day)


    • Jack Sparrow says:

      so far two impulsive waves down…would be clarified by next week about P5 ending or not

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        but if oil has played out its run and its going down then hard to see how we keep on going up if oil is going down financials not participating because of low interest rates…

    • SPX has produced a textbook Bearish Shark pattern, turning down at 2120 as I predicted. Provided TC’s 2070 pivot holds (50% B-C of the Shark pattern), there is a strong probability SPX will rally to 2144, this will form the basis for a 5:0 pattern (AB=CD of the Shark pattern), at which point price should return to the 2085 pivot, we shall wait and see, the structure looks perfect…

    • vivelaamo says:

      TJ do you say trade all these Intraday moves? You must have made a killing! You should set up your own site.

  45. stmro says:

    I’ve mentioned this before but the divergence between european stocks, mainly FTSE and DAX versus US stocks is astounding.

    SPX – new highs compared to November 2015, 1.5% from ATH, 1% from 2016 high.
    DAX – very clear downward trend. June 2016 highs capped by the trendline and significantly lower than November 2015 high. 20% from ATH, 7% from 2016 high.
    FTSE – clear downward trend of lower lows and lower highs. June 2016 lower than Oct/Nov 2015. 15% from ATH, 5% from 2016 high.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      The reason amongst other things is China….more of a trading pArtner and China is a mess

      frankly without Germany the whole place would be a disaster

    • Millan Tomic says:

      There are many reasons for that like: structural disadvantage of EU Eco vs US, positioning/consensus was US underweight vs EU overweight for more than a year now, specifically SPX much larger defensive allocation to Utilities/Staples which as fixed income like are making new ATHs given 10 yr is 1.62% now versus heavy cyclical exposure of FTSE/DAX. If you look at US cyclicals, like Trannies/Banks/Small Caps, they are more than 10% from the highs as they reflect the ongoing Eco deterioration while SPX relative strength is masked by Util/Staples, only few sectors are playing

  46. The argument I hear for buying our market is that when bond yields get so low,stock price yields by comparison,make equities a buy and bonds a sell,Why doesn’t that work for the Dax?They have negative interest rates–yet,no buyers of stock?

    • phil1247 says:

      dont try to understand or correlate everything

      just look at what the price is doing

      all information needed at any moment is in the price

    • Boom&Bust says:

      Well, that depends! There is a reason that bonds are going higher as well as gold – safety!

    • magnus1234 says:

      Because when the risk aversion increase just a tiny bit the highly leveraged bond market (hot money) makes more money for a considerable lower risk. This is a result of the NIRP.

      The repo rate is used to borrow funds. The funding rate for a given term can be significantly lower than the corresponding OIS rate. If the Eonia are at -30bp, German yields can be as low as -45/-50bp without generating losses for leveraged professional investors. The negative funding cost compensates for the negative yield of the bond. The result is that lower depo rates mean lower bond yields and if you expect bond yields to fall, you certainly go and buy some more bonds carrying a low credit risk for a quick profit rather than lending to a risky debtor for years.

    • How can you compare our domestic market with theirs? We started the QE early and more aggressive than the EU. We came out of it with a strong consumer. the cycles are completely different. they are just now finding a base. We have achieved decade breaking numbers and all good when it comes to the consumers health. Slice it anyway you want but the complaint for the first five years after the debacle was that businesses were taking unfair advantage of their workers. The shoe is now on the other foot.

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