Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open, rally, then choppy, DOW +67

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2112 close. By 10am the market had rallied to a new uptrend high at SPX 2120. Then after a pullback to SPX 2113 the market moved higher again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2121, then dipped to end the day at 2119.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose $1.00, Gold rallied $18, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened higher again today, third day this week, rallied to SPX 2120, dipped to 2113, then hit 2121 before pulling back into the close. Still observe three significant waves from the SPX 2026 downtrend low: 2103-2085-2121. Also, there were no notable subdivisions during the first rally (2026-2103), and no notable subdivisions during this one either (2085-2121). A steady trending, almost like cruise control, market. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum is again setting up a negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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305 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. ajaysinghi says:

    As stated earlier today, closing won’t be bad. I expected a 3-4 point red close on spx. Worked our perfectly.

    Now, tomorrow ‘Bull Fryday’??

  2. wanderer says:

    1. Fiona is not Richard Simmons.
    2. SPX should have ended today down 35 points at 2084 (because it’s a magnet), but instead ended flat. That’s because the Fed manipulates the electromagnetic field.
    3. Larry is a realtor in Lake Havasu City, and a part-time economy prognosticator. He is looking for clients.
    4. P5 finally ended yesterday, the same thing it did for the last 11 months. But yesterday was definitely it.
    5. Probability to reach SPX 2162 is 99%. That would constitute an irregular P7 wave.
    6. No matter how you labels things, there is only one possibility: another wave up. It’s not possible at all for the market to sell off.

  3. fotis2 says:

    It closed the gap and reversed violently…hmmmm

  4. captbara says:

    Closed UVXY for +0.08, lol. Will wait and see first from here.

  5. gasman88 says:

    Did anyone think market cold go down today, I mean seriously??

  6. Any thoughts on gold? Trying to decide if the sharp drop, corrective, happens very soon. Any dates to keep in mind? Any warning on technical or change in fundamental patterns?

  7. Problem with technical chart formations is that we over analyze and project our long term assumptions onto the decision making. 6 year bull market and either a head and shoulder possible formation or a triple top zone over 2 years developing. Domed house, expanding wedge, etc…
    If you already made up your mind that 6 years is proof that we ended the run it become self fulfilling to see a future that calls for deep drops and even crashes. You can’t isolate the bias view without taking the other side and trying to prove otherwise. that’s balanced decision making. the absurdly dire housing debacle created a huge drop that abandoned any semblance of fair valuation
    The slow and steady recovery is exactly what you would expect from such an imbalance. I suggest you pretend you are a numbers cruncher only, discarding thoughts of manipulation and an Armageddon ending. Add up the pluses and minuses. Decide what are the main drivers of money flow into markets. To call for a recession based on a tight labor market is absurd. To not see the tight labor market is just as absurd. Unemployment at 30 year lows, JOLTS near record highs, recent spike in spending and continued upside move in housing. A 30 year low for consumer debt burden.

    The move off Mid Feb. was a classic sign of a sustained big rally. Channel well defined and the rn corrective phase was also defined and shallow. Now that we are approaching all time highs with absolutely no warning signs of imminent deep drops, yet the argument still remains. Look all you want but the move from the 1800’s is a strong one, well controlled, not impulsive, no breaks in pattern. NONE

    Why do we look for reasons to see a crash when none are there? Is it because of the age of this bull run? Is it because of our bias and assumption that the market never deserved to be where it is today? Placing emotional arguments on an unemotional asset class is destructive. the Market machine is clinical. Money flows to the best source of highest return at tolerable risk. At a time when it appears the worse is over economically on a global scale I find it peculiar that we see crash here.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Best post ever.

    • Bob Sagget says:

      Gary – 90%+ market gains since 2008 were due to central bank intervention. Stock valuations (yes I know they don’t matter) are stretched beyond reality. Therefore, each “Investor” has one of two intellectual choices to make.

      1 – Go long because the Fed will guarantee the next 5 years gains (like, since 2008). So long as the Fed is in the market, everyone else will stay long, the HFTs will continue to melt this thing up, blah blah.


      2 – Go short because the Fed may lose control. Perhaps, finally, all the pundits are correct…The Fed’s intervention will end badly (sooner vs later).

      I am proclaiming I have the answer. Above I am just illustrating what I believe all the hand waving, breath holding, head talking, emotion can be boiled down to. Two simple choices.

      IMHO everything else is BS. Back to GasMan’s excellent post, If you’re trading intraday then maybe cycles and TA matter. Otherwise it’s choice 1 or 2 above.

      • Bob Sagget says:

        Type – I am *not* proclaiming I have the answer.

      • purplember says:

        anyone who doesn’t think the FED greased the wheels / induced the rally from 2009 is insane. don’t fight the FED but we have to look at reality. if market is up 200% since 2009, why is GDP so bad ? not fundamentals driving market.

      • Every asset class has conditions that change and you should accordingly. Companies merge, declare bankruptcy etc… That’s part of the industry. The FED is always there to mitigate disaster, that’s why it was implemented. You can’t cry foul if tax cuts cause people to spend money. You anticipate the move. Open and above board decisions. massive government debt but known. QE program known. When a dam breaks you do everything possible to rebuild it. No country in the world today would do anything otherwise. I never said the end game will be fine. You deal with the reality of today and next 6 months. Nothing, I mean nothing can show the breaking point or how the end will occur. You can’t base investments on fear of an eventual crash. The signs will be there and individuals have a HUGE advantage in getting out quickly. FED lose control? What does that mean? Earthquake can happen by you. Real stock valuations are stretched but the energy stocks were absurdly stretched at 25 dollars a barrel. Put it in context. if you see no earnings growth from the last 2 quarters results run for the hills. I see explosive growth starting in 3 to 6 months. Only using economics 101. Consumer and business financial cycles. Clearly the potential is there for the consumer to break out on spending. if it doesn’t occur you can bet your last dollar the market will fall hard. They have anticipated this transitional phase and kept the market flat for 2 years. if they got it wrong going forward deep drops will be seen. Risk/Reward. I see a big jump in GDP by end of year. if the market is wrong on future growth there is no more wiggle room. It will react.

        • But if the Fed is secretly getting involved in various markets to prop them up at key points–H&S neck lines,long term trend lines or just at a juncture
          when a commodity like oil can’t be allowed to wallow because of a fear that HYG and JNK will collapse–and not saying it–makes it NOT a stock market,but a never ending ponzi scheme.When oil shoots up from 26 to 40 with no fundamental change in weekly inventory reports–its underhanded and a scam on traders that are counting on fairly honest market behavior.Same with other fundamentals,that in the past,would have led to severe selling(like corporate profits declining for 3 qtrs)but do not,and when they don’t it’s not a market for two sided trading anymore,it’s fraud.

          • If you believe all that than perhaps you shouldn’t invest in a “fixed” game. You can’t fall back to manipulation when it’s convenient to do and ignore it when things appear to be falling hard. Illogical. China took a big spill and if they can’t control that market no one can. Just too darn massive to prevent mass exits if warranted. Clearly the other supposed manipulated situations resulted in an economy we have today. How bad is it? Speaking NOW only for the consumer and NOT earnings. In the “Field of Dream” if you give the consumer the upper hand the will spend.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Gary Leibow … the voice of reason,logic and sensibility

      • No Camp and GL…the market will not react downward–for long(if at all)The Fed will unlease QE “public”stock purchases–instead of the sneaky ones they do now…or some other loony scheme.Why was oil plummeting to 26?Because there was too much economic growth?No,because Europe,China,Japan and the US(with its .6 GDP) wasn’t functioning up to par.Bonds are falling worldwide in yield.Meanwhile QE in Europe has brought a 19% decline in the Dax–so the EU is not solving anything by making negative yields even more pervasive.Nothing will really change–it will get kicked down the road–unless the markets are allowed to scare politicians into real solutions.They won’t do it until then.That’s whats needed.

  8. thomos1 says:

    2102 SPX by mid-morning tomorrow. Bottom drops out to 2090 low by early afternoon. Then ridiculous last 1.5 hour ramp back to 2100 for a marginal green weekly close/pin.

    Today we bounced at lower ascending TL. Violation below tomorrow would craft an excellent bear trap before ramp back inside channel toward 2134/2050 MM target through next week for FOMC/OPEX. Essentially a retest of 2100 from above.

  9. vivelaamo says:

    I guess you cant say that don’t give you chances to make money!

  10. kvilia says:

    Closed my UVXY with a small loss – no fireworks until next week. Seriously, there is nothing to do in the pits on Mon and Fri, FOMC is next Wed, so looks like UVXY is doing double bottom at $9.3 or so, even lower, markets are grinding up to the new marginal highs or not, who cares. Let’s see a close of more than 1% down on SPX, then we’ll have fun. And I’m not betting on the loosing team either. Take care and have a good weekend.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      I think the frustrating thing is this isn’t a normal market anymore. You want to move higher Mr market fine but make it a series of higher highs with some volatility along the way. This low volume buy a 1 to 5 point handle bs over weeks is just ridiculous

  11. Paul Azar says:

    rd3777, can you stop posting? You’re embarrassing yourself and you don’t even know it. Your knowledge of technical analysis is too limited. You need to grow much further before posting again.

  12. rd3777 says:

    Coupled with oil,DAX,JPN225 I think the tops in ……

  13. phil1247 says:


    da boyz break the short
    was too early before

    target 2124

  14. phil1247 says:

    trader joe

    thanks for the chart ..

    helps a lot

  15. captbara says:

    No one posting intraday counts anymore so I’ll share this one. I’ve been tracking the same count as well since 2085.

  16. captbara says:

    Grabbed some UVXY! Ready for both directions tomorrow.

  17. Thursday afternoon kicks for some people.
    PUG SMA, LLC ‏@PUGStockMarket
    The next 40 people who follow me on Twitter will receive the balance of June free premium service. Email me at to register
    @PUGStockMarket Going to do you myself a favor, I am going to unfollow you. You just pulled a Kerry & flipped flopped. Atleast TC has balls.

  18. phil1247 says:

    took small initial probe short 2214.5 spx

  19. lcd00 says:

    “Buying the dip is truth, truth is buying the dip,
    —that is all Ye know on earth,
    and all ye need to know.”

  20. So that’s what constitutes a pullback in the new and improved stock market?

  21. phil1247 says:

    short squeeeze brewing

    target 2124 es

  22. johnnymagicmoney says:

    look at the chart of DRI – looks good

    breakout of triangle?

  23. nsteve24 says:

    Joanne Klein Above The Green Line just went dark, charging $25/mo now

  24. Gdxj can hit 45 in hurry. Gdx looking good for 30-32. Question is where Jnug and Nugt end up. Damn decay makes it all hard to figure out

  25. purplember says:

    phil, GC i’m seeing 5 waves up from 1201. now showing -div on hourly RSI & macd. expecting 38%/50% retrace then much higher. agree or do you have different view ?

  26. Ajay Singhi says:

    SPX 2110. closing won’t be too bad. Tomorrow should be a ‘Bull Fryday’..

  27. scottycj1 says:

    Key weekly level is 2107.5

  28. as for pro trader joe
    How many will go the sp 500 now ??

  29. vivelaamo says:

    Last chance to get on board?

  30. stmro says:

    It’s looking like typical bear behaviour so far tbh. Take it down a few handles to support. Get stuck for the rest of the day, panic cover and fuel an explosive short squeeze back up.

    Think Tony’s 2085 pivot would be the real test.

  31. A trader wrote a prayer..thought you might enjoy reading it (I’m Italian and took no offense as it was obviously made in jest)…

    I call it YELLEN’S PRAYER…..”Our Fed Who art in Manhattan Yellen be thy name Thy QE come Thy print be done By Ben as it is with Janet Give us this day our daily 1.5 billion And forgive us our savings As we drown with the debtors And lead us not into deflation But deliver us from volatility” Amen

  32. phil1247 says:


    daily short has broken

    daily extension long supported perfectly at 1201

    daily extension long target is 1329

    MONTHLY TARGET 2312…… ( not a typo)

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Phil I don’t get the gold thing………………..for giggles I buy some physical gold from time to time for fun, its neat to look at it, and sometimes illiquid investments are the best kind because not doing something is sometimes the best thing. Anyway from a longer term perspective the last crisis gold went down because people needed liquidity and under a crisis or sell off scenario I see gold taking a hit with most asset classes as well. The only scenario I see as gold really doing well is if they print money forever, oil and wages continue to rise and the market muddles along but doesn’t implode. I guess that’s possible but I think a bear market (when it comes or if it is still here) would drop commodities, the dollar, interest rates, and low demand would be bring deflation back into the picture and gold wouldn’t do well.

      thoughts outside of the squiggles?

  33. blackjak100 says:

    Looks like int ii so far – closed out 1/2 short at 2109. Next spot is 2100ish.

    • frommi2 says:

      Yes int ii, but not what you mean. P5 has finished yesterday, this was wave ii of wave A/1 of the bearmarket. 😀

      • fionamargaret says:

        …I don’t know..the floor today is 2106…the hedge funds are going to pile in long if the market looks as if it wants to go up….

        • frommi2 says:

          Either bond traders are stupid or the equity guys. Normally the bond market is smarter, especially since gold is rallying, too. For me the clearest picture is the FTSE and now the DAX, too. But i am sure others will disagree. Looks like the consensus here is that we are in wave 3 up, but the consensus is rarely right.

      • magnus1234 says:

        Are you serious…. 😉

  34. Morning (barely)…as Phil said gold doing great considering the euro drop(guess its bond yields dropping).Draghi trying to do his usual spiel…same as Dudley,Brainard etc do.Hoping it’s a wave 3.Goldfingers crossed.Good luck all.

  35. EL MATADOR says:

    “Regardless of the lens through which one views the economy, it should be concerning that, month-to-month gyrations aside, year-over-year (yoy) job growth has now fallen to a 27-month low (Chart), with yoy growth in not-seasonally-adjusted payroll jobs also dropping to a 27-month low (not shown). ”

    • EL MATADOR says:

      “This rate hike cycle has been exceptionally ill-timed in cyclical terms, starting a full year inside a cycle slowdown – the longest lag we have ever seen between the start of a GRC downturn and the beginning of a Fed rate hike cycle. Now – even if a mid-2016 hike were not effectively off the table – we would have seen the longest lag ever between the first and second Fed rate hikes.

      The reason for the Fed’s difficulties in this regard should be clear. But it does not seem to realize that its plans are still on a collision course with the economic cycle. And unless a growth rate cycle upturn begins to take shape, its next move may end up being a rate cut.”

    • dan pulford says:

      SPX 2111 pivot breached. vixter yahoooo

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