Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +18

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2109 close, and continued to rise. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2119 and then began to pullback. At 3pm consumer credit was reported lower: $13.4B v $29.6B. The pullback took the market down to SPX 2112 where it closed.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Today investor sentiment was reported bullish but lower: 52.9% v 54.6%.

The market opened higher today, rallied to a new uptrend high at SPX 2119, then pulled back into the close. Thus far we have observed three significant waves from the SPX 2026 downtrend low: 2103-2085-2119. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s high, after breaking through yesterday’s slight negative divergence. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum has declined to below neutral after hitting quite overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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334 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. micky says:

    spy 213 within spitting distance..

  2. …and another -div on the SPX hourly.

  3. Fiona…I’m sure you noticed the P&F chart raising the PO of SPX to 2300.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Yes indeed Learned – makes me wonder why I decided to buy UVXY.
      I mentioned to Jim Gautery the price suggested was now 5, but on a second look …3.5….how much of a rally would it take to equate to 3.5 UVXY………??

      • Jim Guthery says:

        Fiona have you taken a look at the VIX curve?

        • Jim Guthery says:

          The timeframe for your melt up scenario would be through Mid August?

          • fionamargaret says:

            Jim, there is an inverse H&S forming (perhaps) on the VIX at the moment, and I would presume by the action, I am not the first to notice. You mentioned perhaps buying UVXY – maybe a little.- you judge Jim.
            I don’t want you to be having to sell 1000 homes to break even….xx

          • fionamargaret says:

            Now if the Inverse H&S doesn’t work out, and we equate literally the UVXY to the DJIA, it comes out to crazy numbers – maybe partially because they don’t equate equally in the first place. For 9 to become 3.5, it certainly means a good rise in the $SPX.
            So there you have it Jim…2 outcomes…or 3 if it is nothing happening. x

  4. phil1247 says:

    gary liebowitz

    phil1247 says:
    June 7, 2016 at 5:06 pm


    Gary………………… agree

    • For the most part it seemed obvious to me. So yes i agree. The unemployment numbers at 50 year lows as the JOLTS report surged. I do expect a major revision on last months Employment report. ADP rarely goes much higher than government report. One was clearly wrong. The perverse timing is that bears see a recession just when consumer health has never been better. You can’t use stock market to determine health of consumer. in fact the first 5 years the consumer was clearly struggling. Corporate profits were in a sweet spot with high productivity and low costs. Transition took almost 2 years and now we have complete opposite. that’s why it is critical the consumer continue to outspend and drive profits higher. if not a nasty drop will result. July earliest time before we MIGHT encounter such a drop.

      • With the last weeks report they ALREADY revised down the previous two months 80,000 jobs.Pretty optimistic about an upward revision after a downward one…aren’t you?
        I have to say the grocery stores around my area have help wanted signs all over the place–but for 8.50 an hour.People get the jobs,but the turnover is amazing…I think they hire many people for the same job over a 3 month period.They just don’t last.Constant firing and hiring happening.

        • Tight labor market should still produce between 100K and 150K. We only need 100K to break even with attrition. I am not suggesting 200K going forward, more like half that. You can’t just dismiss all the reports that point to a very long cumulative buildup of consumer health. The Help Wanted from these JOLTS reports are not for grocery clerks.
          Clearly our schools have failed us in prepping our young into jobs that need filling. We also lack qualified students.

          Why is it so hard to just read all these reports with an open mind. Why do people gloss over such important readings and trends? How is it even possible to come to any other conclusion. I don’t question a persons bullish or bearish stock market prognostications. I do question their reasons behind it especially when it is a clear as night and day to be wrong.

          Use the internet and any search engine of your choice to filter out the real from imagined. ONLY use unbiased reports from unbiased news sources Clearly a fact remains a fact and therefore should be seen on all credible news agencies. To use Zerohedge or any of the other known sensationalistic journalism techniques when it simply isn’t being reported on the credible ones suggest a National Inquirer result. If you wanted cheerleaders you can always find them. if you want the truth, which invariably means more grey area and less definitive answers, use reputable sources that have confirming reports from other sites. I connect the dots and take it where IT leads me, not the other way around. Once you start with generalities the bets you make become generalities and you will generally lose more than gain. I will switch on a dime if I see a major path change. Spending and earrings going forward are key for my beliefs.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        dude the stock market is EXACTLY why people think the economy/jobs are strong. IT ISNT!!!!!!!!!!!!! why cant people accept that the market is going up because their are more buy orders than sell orders and nothing more. Drive profits higher? Profits are lower and are not going higher even if wages increase – that’s what people also cant accept. DECLINING MARGINS AND INCREASING WAGES WITH LITTLE NEW DEMAND MEANS CORPORATE PROFITS WILL NOT INCREASE!!!!!

        just rest you long case on buy orders please – stop drinking the macro kool aid

  5. scottycj1 says:

    Starting to look like a VIAGRA Pattern on the 15 min chart

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