Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then reversal again, DOW -32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls disappointed: 38K v 163K, but the Unemployment rate declined to 4.7% and the Trade deficit improved: -$37.4B v -$40.4B. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2105 close, and continued to decline. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.9% v +1.1%, and ISM services was reported lower: 52.9 v 55.7. At 10:30 the SPX revisited the 2085 pivot, which was also Wednesday’s low, and began to rally. At 12:30 FED governor Brainard’s speech: The market rallied to SPX 2103 by 3pm, and then pulled back to end the week at 2099.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 37 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rallied $32, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Today the Q2 GDP est. was reported unchanged at +2.5%.

The market opened lower today for the third day in a row. It made the low for the day in the first hour of trading, and then rallied throughout the day for the third day in a row. The 2085 pivot has provided support all week with resistance just above SPX 2100, for a narrow 20 point range on the entire week. We will cover what this implies short, medium and long term in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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109 Responses to Friday update

  1. aahmichael says:

    Just doubled my short position at 2105. I’m now maxed out short at 2096 average.

  2. sub-wave iv of (v) now completed .. wish I could show you the SP500 5-min chart .. it’s really a work of beauty .. but I can’t because I’m a man of my word.

  3. phil1247 says:

    raised stops on TBT

  4. Bob Sagget says:

    More Brexit – I would be nervous if I was in the Bremain camp given the barage from Farage.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Sill short Crude SPX daily close bellow 2040 confirms DT lets see intersting week ahead

    • fionamargaret says:

      Hi Fotis..I am hanging on to the idea of crude going higher. I have Sparrow’s 48.68 burned in my brain..he thinks it is going down (like everybody else)..I think he and Mat took some of my money today
      Do you know Port Elizabeth Fotis…

  6. cloudblu says:

    Tony, I don’t post very much but do come and read up on your thoughts occasionally. Thank you for all you do! Question: do you have or will you be updating the status on precious metals? Is it now in a new bull market or is the recent surge in the past several months just a very convincing bear market rally?

  7. rd3777 says:

    Everytime I look @ this JPN225 chart and it is hard for me to be bullish on any stock market especially the U.S. that has been in a high level distribution area for 18 months.
    The JPN225 has built a top pattern since Febuary and has broken down and will make new lows in the near weeks. Below 14K is a target or lower….A strong Yen is not good for Japan nor lower crude prices…The Nikkei should hve a “point of recognition in the coming waves down.

    • rd3777 says:

      I remember reading David Harahus back in the 1970’s he was a Elliott tactician and on his newsletter he had the quotation “so confidently right before so horribly wrong”. Seems so right for the moment…..I wonder…

  8. hohoho598 says:

    Wow just read this:

    tony caldaro says:
    June 3, 2016 at 8:37 am

    “The most unhealthy thing about it, is what it is doing to the people who write such things.
    What one projects out into the world is also what they receive.
    Negative energy begets negative energy.”

    I guess all the negative analysis of late has bought all the negative energy to this blog, there is correlation after all…

    My positive energy take on all of this, it new highs. Thank you Fed, and Super Janet needs a cape, or better still, call them all the Justice League.

    Good luck Bulls…

  9. Jack Sparrow says:

    fiona- you MIA

  10. kvilia says:

    Tony, I just realized that the long term has changed: “LONG TERM: neutral”. I am looking to the weekly update, this is a serious change.

  11. Well,I asked the question..what would gold do if the DXY broke below 95?Heckuvan answer (GDX up 11%).Great way to end the week.What’s next?Dudley and Yellen doing a top 10 list Monday,of why rates need to go up anyways?Avi put out a buy signal on GDX if it tops 25.85.Thinks 40 would follow soon.Good luck all.

  12. bud67 says:

    I have always been interested in knowing when the value of my home
    was at a Low, or High. From TC’s HGX index chart of housing. The
    prior high was 2/2/2007. Time to sell, a home. But, we are at that same
    level 8/21/15. Thus, the view here, is that home values, have crest.….is this a perfect home
    selling/buying tool. Well, I see it as something I will be looking at

  13. cloudblu says:

    Tony, I don’t post here much but I come here to read your thoughts occasionally. Thanks for all that you do! I was looking through your gold reports. Will you be doing an updated one? Are the metals finally back in a bull market?

  14. hohoho598 says:

    Wow, just read this:

    “tony caldaro says:
    June 3, 2016 at 8:37 am

    The most unhealthy thing about it, is what it is doing to the people who write such things.
    What one projects out into the world is also what they receive.
    Negative energy begets negative energy.”

    I guess the negative energy this blog has been receiving is a result from the negative dire predictions in the analysis…. just goes to show there is a direct correlation for some things.

    My “positive energy” says up up and away…go super Fed, Janet needs a “cape”, actually lets call all of them the “Justice League”… GL Bulls

  15. bud67 says:

    NYA – my favorite OEW chart to review, study, follow.;

  16. bud67 says:

    The attempt here, is to share. My view of what I see as “one of many” OEW
    charts worth following. But, from my investment timing perspective. I see
    this OEW chart, as especially useful, and ideal for my work.

    Judge for yourself, is my motto. But – this TC chart is my favorite,
    for investing in the SP, NYA (etf), or general timing purposes.

    Thank you TC…..

  17. bfquant says:

    Treasuries daily chart coiling much like it did in November and December of last year. Could be breaking out of its triangle on the daily to the upside. Don’t see equities rallying meaningfully against this backdrop.

  18. Hi eur and yen strength signals tightening of global financial conditions for countries borrowing in USD this is negative for global growth in particular Japanese and European equities , plus US equities wont be able to withstand the selling pressure. Tony might be to quick to capitulate on his bearish count also a liquidity sqeeze going into the june futures roll period will impact liquidity as most people have been short equities.

  19. Well,I asked the question…what would gold do if DXY broke below 95 today?Excellent answer.(GDX up 11%)I haven’t checked the charts yet for -divs on the dollar.Get back to you later.

  20. Well I asked the question…what would gold do if the DXY broke 95?Good answer…lol.

  21. rd3777 says:

    avkanoi, on your earlier ?
    Hi avkanoi, The JPN225 is in it’s “point of recognition wave”,I look for a sharp decline next week down to 13.5K….$VXO put in a solid bottom today….50+ next week…crude will acelerate down with the markets $40….good luck

  22. NYSE A/D line made yet another New High today with +200 even with the SPX off 6 points.

  23. The NYSE A/D line closed at yet another New High today (+200) even with the SPX off 6 pts.

  24. phil1247 says:

    please go away wile ..

    you have nothing of value to contribute here

  25. Ajay Singhi says:

    SPX looks good for 2050 next week.

  26. bud67 says:

    Thanks, Tony. Have a nice weekend.

  27. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Welcome to June…

  28. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have nice weekend.

  29. Tony Jordan says:

    Thanks TC. Big divergence between INDU and Eurocentric DAX. INDU finished only 40 points off the pre-jobs levels but DAX futures are still down 150. Little joy for European stocks with such a big day for Euro (+2%). Speaking of big days, out of XAU, HUI, GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, SIL & SILJ only SILJ (+9.68%) failed to gain at least 10% today. Good weekend to all.

  30. Jack Sparrow says:

    just catching up on posts from yesterday- good post Aah- I agree the negative energy here does affect people. there is no reason for anyone of us to put other people down.
    the best value of this blog is when i come across smart people here and pick good pointers from them- there have been phenomenal tips here on different methods to handle the market…that is the real value of this blog (but no one system is fool proof)- the way I see it i have learned in past four months the combined experience of all good posters here

    and at the risk of being not too modest -i can very comfortably say no one on this board(the posters) have ventured into where i have been and coming from…yet humility is title of the epilogue of the story.

  31. rd3777 says:

    Top looks to be complete
    NDX futures

    • rd3777 says:

      looks like 1,2’s to the downside….btw thanks TC look foward to your WE report tomorrow…

    • rd3777 says:

      Crudes ability to build a top after completing it’s EDT has given time for stocks to build a larger top (high level distribution) looks to be finished.

  32. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    3 wave patterns dominate, all the way up from 1810. 😉

  33. fishonhook says:

    Hope you didn’t short gold phil

    phil1247 says:
    June 2, 2016 at 7:15 pm

    gold looks ready to collapse to target 1193.5

    • phil1247 says:

      was looking to add to longs there

      said all along i was using downside targets to find buy areas

      out of gold now

  34. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony. Anybody short here at this level?

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Yes sir, reengaged ES shorts last week and still managed to pocket 40 ES points this week. How did I manage that…simple, I bought first Lot at 2075 (on 5/24) which prove to be premature as it went underwater immediately. So I added a second equal size Lot at 2098 (on 5/27). Then I place a GTC buy order at 2088 to cover my second lot once executed i place a GTC re-sell order at 2098 for that same second 2nd lot and repeated this strategy everyday this week and was unfortunate enough to squeeze 10 handle/day. And even though my first Lot from 2075 is underwater by 22 points as of today’s closing price I still have an 18 point stop loss cushion from the 40 points i pocket. And since we are heading into the weekend I decided not to place a re-sell order today for my second lot 🙂 .

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Yes sir, I re-engaged ES shorts last week and still managed to pocket 40 points this week. How did I manage that, simple, I place first ES Lot GTC limit sell order at 2075 on 5/24 which was premature as it went underwater immediately. I place second ES Lot GTC limit sell order at 2098 on 5/27. Then I place a GTC limit buy order for the second Lot at 2088 on 5/31 and once it was executed I place a GTC limit sell order for that same second Lot at 2098 and repeat this trading strategy each day of this week thereby netting me 40 points per ES contract. Even though my first lot is still under water by 22 points as of today’s closing price i now have an 18 point stop loss cushion. Since we at heading into a weekend i decided not to re-sell short my second Lot today.

  35. fotis2 says:

    HD I noticed your 10 at 10 right on cue again.

  36. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, fervently look forward to the OEWcc (coffee-club) this weekend; shall be devouring an entire pot of caffeine with the report!

    Appreciate the Minute labelling even if tentative; perhaps another Minute-b label at today’s low?

  37. Lack of alternation (both zigzags), suggests the up wave so far, is 1-2-i-ii. It’s not a diagonal as it did not exceed the high, but did exceed the 78.6% retrace level (upward). This is a three-minute chart, so ‘go easy’ on the channeling.

    SP500 (3 Min)  6_3_2016b


    • This is a spam comment, and if you do not stop, I will ‘again’ discontinue intraday charting. Tony has already written that ‘personal attacks’ are to end. If you have a different idea, show it, and your rationale.

      • Page says:

        TJ: Ignore him.

      • That Coyote guy has no ideas. He’s a lonely old man in his 60’s based out of Texas that is a Gold Bug and Perma-Bear. He’s been Bearish on the USD and SPX since 2011 and is a broken record. He spends his entire day “trolling” people on a half dozen blogs and touts people like Bo Polny, Jim Wile, Bill Holter, and Jim Sinclair every chance he gets.

        Trader Joe just ignore him.
        I appreciate your posts and wave counts.

    • Tony Jordan says:

      TJ real nice work deciphering that iv. Can only concur with Dr Igor.

    • purplember says:

      TJ ignore Coyote Ugly

    • ewmarkets says:

      Different people use different trading methods, analysis tools, trade different time frames, etc, because people are different and not every method works for everyone. Evidently, TraderJoe’s EW approach does not fit your style or your views, but please do understand that there are other people on this board who really enjoy and appreciate TradeJoe’s work and even benefit a lot from his work. So please do not attack TraderJoe just because your opinions are different from his.

      Frankly, nobody knows what markets will do in the future or even tomorrow. And whether or not an expressed view about the future can be labeled “clueless” can only be determined after fact. Therefore, to assert that someone else’s view about the future is “clueless” is, in my humble opinion, a display of overbearing arrogance.

    • Wile Coyote always gets it in the end TJ……..just say a quick beep beep……and watch the cloud of dust!!!!

    • Thanks TJ.
      I enjoy your work!

    • thomos1 says:

      TJ, you don’t find it odd that the expanded flat didn’t undercut on SPX? SPY and ES yes, but SPX no. For that reason, I’ve got all of today as a B-leg within Down C of that same expanded flat. Minimum target A-leg undercut at 2085.10, or really 38% fib retrace of entire move from 2025 at SPX 2082.50. Alternatively, the 1.618x A-leg target at SPX 2073 has confluence with 1.618 fib extension of this morning’s drop at 2072.50.

    • Thank You TJ!
      I really enjoy your E-wave work.

    • thomos1 says:

      Joe, you don’t find it odd that the expanded flat didn’t undercut on SPX? SPY and ES yes, but SPX no. For that reason, I have all of today as a B-leg within Down C of the same expanded flat. Minimum target undercut of A-leg at 2085.10, or really 38% fib retrace of the entire move from 2025 at 2082.50. Alternatively I’ve got a target of 2073 (1.618 x A-leg) that has confluence with 1.618 fib extension of this morning’s drop at 2072.50.

    • Thanks for the chart and the analysis, But I thought a diagonal could fall short of a new high as well as exceeding the old high.

  38. fotis2 says:

    Many thanx Tony like most looking forward for the WU…

  39. blackjak100 says:

    $SPX narrowest weekly range in over a year 5/18/15.

  40. ko68 says:

    Thanks Tony

  41. nsteve24 says:

    market looks neutral to me

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Good sign – after the selling, buyers came in and by the close indexes were near sessions highs, even if negative.

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