SHORT TERM: lower open then reversal higher again, DOW +48
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 173K v 156K, then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 267K v 268K. The market opened 5 points lower than yesterday’s SPX 2099 close, dipped down to 2089, and then started to rally. The rally continued throughout the day, with only one 4 point pullback, and the SPX closed at the high of the day 2105.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds rose 12 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +162K) and the Trade deficit at 8:30, Factory orders and ISM services at 10am. Then there is a speech from FED governor Brainard at the CFR at 12:30.
The market opened lower again today, just like yesterday, and then rallied throughout the day, just like yesterday as well. While yesterday’s close was two points off the high of the day, today’s close was at the high of the day. Thus far from the recent SPX 2026 downtrend low the market has rallied in five waves: 2103-2085-2101-2089-2105. It appears the rally from Tuesday’s SPX 2085 low is already subdividing, while the rally from SPX 2026 to 2103 was clearly one single wave. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: neutral