Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then reversal higher again, DOW +48

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 173K v 156K, then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 267K v 268K. The market opened 5 points lower than yesterday’s SPX 2099 close, dipped down to 2089, and then started to rally. The rally continued throughout the day, with only one 4 point pullback, and the SPX closed at the high of the day 2105.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds rose 12 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +162K) and the Trade deficit at 8:30, Factory orders and ISM services at 10am. Then there is a speech from FED governor Brainard at the CFR at 12:30.

The market opened lower again today, just like yesterday, and then rallied throughout the day, just like yesterday as well. While yesterday’s close was two points off the high of the day, today’s close was at the high of the day. Thus far from the recent SPX 2026 downtrend low the market has rallied in five waves: 2103-2085-2101-2089-2105. It appears the rally from Tuesday’s SPX 2085 low is already subdividing, while the rally from SPX 2026 to 2103 was clearly one single wave. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: neutral


About tony caldaro

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320 Responses to Thursday update

  1. does anyone track or play uvxy. hit a 52 week luw today

  2. nsteve24 says:

    Jobs report is Neutral, which explains todays market action.
    Vix is also Neutral.

  3. rd3777 says:

    This “P” rally is probably the last chance to get short @ good prices….

  4. phil1247 says:

    added more sso

    ext long targets getting hit

    • cosmos77 says:

      Good post Bob. Looks like we passed the peak 13 months ago. I doubt the Fed will let the economy slide into recession though.

  5. rd3777 says:

    Tremendous amounts of shares distributed to weak hands in last 18 months…….the big drop is coming…markdown has started….

    • avkanoi says:

      Hi RD …. Can you check volatility index charts? Also what’s your call for nikkei 225… Ur accurate on that uptill now🙂

      • rd3777 says:

        Hi avkanoi, The JPN is in it’s “point of recognition” wave which should take it to below 14K…..The $VXO put in a solid bottom today….we should hit 50 next week….Spx -100 pts 2000 or lower….good luck
        p.s. have done 1,2,’s down expect crude will accelerate down with the markets.

      • rd3777 says:

        Hi avkanoi, The JPN225 is in it’s “point of recognition wave”,I look for a sharp decline next week down to 13.5K….$VXO put in a solid bottom today….50+ next week…crude will acelerate down with the markets $40….good luck

  6. phil1247 says:

    added sso

  7. anytime i hear someone say the market is manipulated I know a lot of money is being lost in a painful manner. Inability to confront bad risk management or bad analysis.


    What in this world isn’t manipulated anyways? What a throw away phrase…politics…business…market…of course its manipulated. Silliness.

  8. cmucha68 says:

    Up up and away…

  9. mjtplayer says:

    As a bear, it doesn’t get any more frustrating than today. Another day of gapping down, only to have the 10:30am buy programs kick-in and save the day (yet again).


  10. Ajay Singhi says:

    An ED in play. Expect green close and a super volatile Monday and peak, perhaps around 2110.

  11. From the time, Tony changed to NEUTRAL, boys and girls have started bashing him. Not sure why anyone want to do that. This is free blog, Tony is allowing to read his views for free. Is it his responsibility to be right all the time??

    If you mention (tony wrong) once a year, then ok but I see some mentioning it every week. I don’t think it is required. enjoy good time (as good times don’t last..) Come here for time pass. Have your system..and keep playing…

    • phil1247 says:

      well said Shrihas

    • 7dayyss says:

      And that’s the key word, “system.” He’s built this over the years and his own indicators. With the CB’s pulling their stunts, is he just suppose to throw everything out? He’s starting to see something so now he went neutral. Isn’t he allowed too? The majority don’t have their own blog and stick their necks out. Some come here to post to take advantage of his traffic. The wanna be’s would wither and die having their own site without posting here. And then you have the smart one’s still holding down a job, because they can’t trade what they “know!”

      Just don’t follow if you don’t like the calls! For the two who got burned from the fake PIII top: You made the decision to short , not Tony. Ever since then, you two have been continually on him. If you used that energy on learning your own method, or defining what you do use, just think how much more successful you would be now! Don’t use the excuses about critiquing either!

    • pfm225 says:

      😉 +1 and thx tony as always 🙂

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Nice job TJ with the impulse count and charting. if it stands correct, int 1 of major 3 has a target of 2117 where 1=5.

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