Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -86

Over the extended weekend the Asian markets gained 0.6%, and the European markets lost 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.4% v +0.4%)/spending (+1.0% v +0.1%) were reported higher, PCE prices were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.4%. The market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2099 close, hit 2103, and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.3 v 50.4, and at 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 92.6 v 94.2. The pullback continued throughout the day, with only one four point bounce, until 3pm when the SPX hit 2089. Then a sharp rally took the SPX to 2099, before dipping to close at 2097.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rise $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales at 10am, then the FED’s Beige book at 2pm.

The market opened slightly higher, then pulled back to SPX 2089, before ending the day with a last hour rally. Today’s pullback from SPX 2103 to 2089 was the largest since this rally began over a week ago at SPX 2026. However, it was not enough to get anything going on the downside even after a nonstop 77 point rally. Friday’s negative short term divergence worked well after the first hour of trading as the market declined 13 points and hit oversold before the rally. Currently need a decline to SPX 2087 and lower to get some downside pressure. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening

LONG TERM: bear market rally

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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292 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    target 51.73

    bot uso


  2. Jack Sparrow says:

    Paid subscription coming soon…

    Jack Sparrow says:
    June 1, 2016 at 12:25 pm
    inverse HS forming – the move from morning first wave up— then if there is a correction (2 nd wave) that form a set up for 3 and the 2nd shoulder . 3rd to break the neckline. road map for next 24 hours lets see


  3. bud67 says:

    Hello Tony C. Would care to comment on Gold. It’s current,
    and outlook for the next 3-5 years, please.


  4. bud67 says:

    IMHO – following the NYSE Weekly, is a better view
    of the broad market vs the SP500 Weekly, in my opinion.
    Over the years, I have always liked the NYSE index vs the
    SP500, guess that is just me.


  5. stcoleridge says:

    SPX Uptrend confirmation today.


  6. bud67 says:

    If you live in the eastern half of North Carolina, your
    looking at considerable tropical rain fall the remainder,
    of this week…tropical low, has begun to form several
    hundred miles ESE of Wilmington, NC movement is
    slow to the Northerly movement. Not sure what the
    Weather Channel is calling it, but I can see it.


  7. Here’s how the SP500 5-min finished the day. With this count, counting the flat as most likely, this would predict wave iii gap tomorrow. Remember, back to the SP500 30-minute chart, minuette b should have three-waves up to b, and this chart is showing it as A-B-C, up, to b. If, instead, there is an unexpected gap down, then the triangle has to be considered. But, the triangle has lower odds at this point as the b wave is currently shorter in time, than the a wave down on the 30-min chart.

    SPX - Five minute - Jun-01 1605 PM (5 min)



    • Note how, the 5:3:5:3:5 Contracting Leading Diagonal, was, in fact, predictive of higher prices to follow. The higher high is likely i of C, because it shows the motive progress of making the higher high, where wave A does not.


  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    thank you Apple

    I am going home and eating a Pear


  9. bud67 says:

    at 3:45pm est – that critical, overhead SP500, resistance line lies at
    2108. Thus far, an effective ceiling for the SP….


  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    look at AAPL again

    starting to descend hard


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