SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -86
Over the extended weekend the Asian markets gained 0.6%, and the European markets lost 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.4% v +0.4%)/spending (+1.0% v +0.1%) were reported higher, PCE prices were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.4%. The market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2099 close, hit 2103, and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.3 v 50.4, and at 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 92.6 v 94.2. The pullback continued throughout the day, with only one four point bounce, until 3pm when the SPX hit 2089. Then a sharp rally took the SPX to 2099, before dipping to close at 2097.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rise $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales at 10am, then the FED’s Beige book at 2pm.
The market opened slightly higher, then pulled back to SPX 2089, before ending the day with a last hour rally. Today’s pullback from SPX 2103 to 2089 was the largest since this rally began over a week ago at SPX 2026. However, it was not enough to get anything going on the downside even after a nonstop 77 point rally. Friday’s negative short term divergence worked well after the first hour of trading as the market declined 13 points and hit oversold before the rally. Currently need a decline to SPX 2087 and lower to get some downside pressure. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening
LONG TERM: bear market rally