Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -86

Over the extended weekend the Asian markets gained 0.6%, and the European markets lost 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.4% v +0.4%)/spending (+1.0% v +0.1%) were reported higher, PCE prices were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.4%. The market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2099 close, hit 2103, and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.3 v 50.4, and at 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 92.6 v 94.2. The pullback continued throughout the day, with only one four point bounce, until 3pm when the SPX hit 2089. Then a sharp rally took the SPX to 2099, before dipping to close at 2097.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rise $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales at 10am, then the FED’s Beige book at 2pm.

The market opened slightly higher, then pulled back to SPX 2089, before ending the day with a last hour rally. Today’s pullback from SPX 2103 to 2089 was the largest since this rally began over a week ago at SPX 2026. However, it was not enough to get anything going on the downside even after a nonstop 77 point rally. Friday’s negative short term divergence worked well after the first hour of trading as the market declined 13 points and hit oversold before the rally. Currently need a decline to SPX 2087 and lower to get some downside pressure. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening

LONG TERM: bear market rally

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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292 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    target 51.73

    bot uso

  2. Jack Sparrow says:

    Paid subscription coming soon…

    Jack Sparrow says:
    June 1, 2016 at 12:25 pm
    inverse HS forming – the move from morning first wave up— then if there is a correction (2 nd wave) that form a set up for 3 and the 2nd shoulder . 3rd to break the neckline. road map for next 24 hours lets see

  3. bud67 says:

    Hello Tony C. Would care to comment on Gold. It’s current,
    and outlook for the next 3-5 years, please.

  4. bud67 says:

    IMHO – following the NYSE Weekly, is a better view
    of the broad market vs the SP500 Weekly, in my opinion.
    Over the years, I have always liked the NYSE index vs the
    SP500, guess that is just me.

  5. stcoleridge says:

    SPX Uptrend confirmation today.

  6. bud67 says:

    If you live in the eastern half of North Carolina, your
    looking at considerable tropical rain fall the remainder,
    of this week…tropical low, has begun to form several
    hundred miles ESE of Wilmington, NC movement is
    slow to the Northerly movement. Not sure what the
    Weather Channel is calling it, but I can see it.

  7. Here’s how the SP500 5-min finished the day. With this count, counting the flat as most likely, this would predict wave iii gap tomorrow. Remember, back to the SP500 30-minute chart, minuette b should have three-waves up to b, and this chart is showing it as A-B-C, up, to b. If, instead, there is an unexpected gap down, then the triangle has to be considered. But, the triangle has lower odds at this point as the b wave is currently shorter in time, than the a wave down on the 30-min chart.

    SPX - Five minute - Jun-01 1605 PM (5 min)


    • Note how, the 5:3:5:3:5 Contracting Leading Diagonal, was, in fact, predictive of higher prices to follow. The higher high is likely i of C, because it shows the motive progress of making the higher high, where wave A does not.

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    thank you Apple

    I am going home and eating a Pear

  9. bud67 says:

    at 3:45pm est – that critical, overhead SP500, resistance line lies at
    2108. Thus far, an effective ceiling for the SP….

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    look at AAPL again

    starting to descend hard

  11. Peter Sliney says:

    A gap down on the open with a higher close is clearly bullish. Side ways to bullish until Nov. Janet will make sure.

  12. TMF says:

    Above 2103, looks like 5th wave up then correction OR back down tomorrow and could have topped at 2103 and already are in 2….the engines are revving up folks….


  13. johnnymagicmoney says:

    As much as I think the macro is a farce if the market goes decisively through 2111 we hit all time highs. At some point this needs to stop making new highs on this uptrend to have a chance to roll over like the last two. That and the Russell has been pretty impressive as of late.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    I give up. There is no way US markets are going down anytime soon. All the best.

  15. blackjak100 says:

    I think it’s fairly safe to say wave iv ended today @ 2085. So 1=5=2117 to complete 5 waves up?

    • ..don’t think so. That leaves a count without alternation. Wave iv should be a flat or triangle. The wave ‘may’ have ended in terms of ‘length’, but it does not have the proper structure yet.

  16. phil1247 says:

    everyone likes to short wedges

    heres a wedgie for ya !

  17. Bob Sagget says:

    For now, it seems the $SPX is again correlated with oil. Today’s intraday patterns suggest this. Today, before the fake headline about an output ceiling being announced tomorrow, they were both going down.

    What will the fake headline be tomorrow?

  18. On another note.. Crude Oilers might want to be careful of this count, as there is a verified triangle with a higher high, already. The triangle alternates with the flat, and counts properly in every aspect.

    CLN16 - Five Minute - Jun-01 1450 PM (5 min)


  19. phil1247 says:


    everyone seems anxious to short the crude oil wedge

    a few more pennies of rally could ignite short squeeze up to target 51.75

    this is playing with fire

  20. EL MATADOR says:

    market struggling find willingful buyers …. Not even Holly Bubble is willing to hold long … she’s a nervous bull

  21. Crude, 240, logscale. Broken trendline. Just did the “trendline-retest”, I’m shorting it.

  22. phil1247 says:


    BULLISH above 2089

    TARGET 2115

  23. johnnymagicmoney says:

    this is how I interpreted the FED minutes

    growth is barely positive and inflation picking up but doesn’t matter what I think………………the bots interpreted as wonderful

    • phil1247 says:

      yes just find the algos they have written and go with them or they will crush you

  24. Holly Silver says:

    Wasted energy. I’ll be back when we hit 2135 on SPX.

    I’ll Be Back………………………..

    • Holly, Don’t give up. Attack and destroy. Warren Buffett also gave 100 times return and you as well. But because, you play on smaller levels, you are not known. U bought at 668 in 2009 and still holding. U sold at 1574 in 2007 and covered at 671 in 2009. A month prior to 1987 crash, u got ur family members cash out. A month after 1987 crash, u went long and held till year 2000. Don’t give up. This is the time to go full throttle (off course as per your opinion). Go for it. In 2135,we trust..

      But, forgive me your excellency, I will short at 2118.1

  25. phil1247 says:


    our trendline hit today at 2085.10

    i was mistaken when i said 2086 yesterday but the market knew where the line was

    pretty cool eh????????????

  26. stmro says:

    For the last few months, every rally has been sharper than the preceding down move, on almost every time frame. Does that sound like a bear market?

  27. rd3777 says:

    For all the bulls out there….one chart is worth a thousand words or trades….Just a Montrous supercycle Topping process and it is just a Broadening top and finished to boot….good luck

    • thomos1 says:

      Your count has us in Primary 3 of the bull still? Balls, my man.

      • jobjas says:

        balls or brains – we will have to wait and see [time will tell]

        • thomos1 says:

          You may just have both. As much as I hate this count with the depths of my soul, interestingly it satisfies all my hangups. Dismissed this when you still had P4 as the waves were irreconcilable, but now…

          • jobjas says:

            Post your count please (investing.com is free ) some one may benefit and you will learn a lot . If all the posters in this forum display their counts this site can truly benefit its visitors and there will be much less emotions running high.

  28. Possible to see a 5:3:5:3:5 Leading Diagonal in the SP500 5-minute — just thought newer folks might like to see one that counts properly in every aspect. These are ‘often’ just A waves.

    SPX - Five minute - Jun-01 1326 PM (5 min)


  29. phil1247 says:

    es short breaking

    new highs ahead

Comments are closed.