weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 2052. After a small pullback to SPX 2047 on Monday the market started to rally. Tuesday and Wednesday had gap up openings as the SPX reached 2095. Then for the remainder of the week the SPX only managed to tack on four points, and ended the week at 2099. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 3.4%. Economic reports for the week were nearly all positive. On the downtick: consumer sentiment. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, the FHFA, durable goods orders, Q1 GDP and the Q2 GDP estimate. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls, ISM, and the FED’s Beige book.

LONG TERM: bear market rally

Despite the relative strength of this market since mid-February we continue to maintain the view that the market has been in a bear market rally. We counted five Primary waves from 2009-2015 to end the Cycle wave [1] bull market. Primary waves I and II in 2011, and primary waves III, IV and V in 2015.


The first downtrend took the SPX to 1810 in mid-February which we labeled Major wave A. The uptrend that followed to SPX 2111 by mid-April we labeled Major wave B. Since that high the market confirmed a downtrend, but only dropped to SPX 2026 (4%) before rallying again. This would suggest, if a new uptrend is confirmed, that Major wave B has subdivided. Under this scenario the SPX 2111 and 2026 levels would be Intermediate waves a and b of Major B, with a rising Int. c underway now.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening

From the mid-February Major wave A downtrend low at SPX 1810 we counted an a-b-c Major wave B rally to SPX 2111 by mid-April. Then the market entered a downtrend which hit SPX 2026 just over a week ago. Since that low the market has rallied virtually straight up to SPX 2099 in just 6+ days. We had been expecting a rally off the SPX 2026 low into the 2070 pivot range, or possibly the 2085 pivot range. The market has clearly risen above both.


As noted above, unless the market starts declining soon there is a chance that a new uptrend is underway. This could carry the SPX back to 2111 and even higher. Based upon our analysis this would still be considered a Major B wave that has subdivided. Irregular B waves can make new highs, rising above the previous fifth wave and retracing more than the entire A wave. Should the market turn down next week, and close below the SPX 2026 level, the downturn could be quite severe. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.


After doing a somewhat complex a-b-c decline from SPX 2111 to 2026 the market has rallied virtually straight up from that low to 2099. The b wave during the SPX 2111 to 2026 decline was also a quick straight up affair, albeit much shorter. It appears, as of Friday’s close, the market either breaks out to confirm a new uptrend or breaks down to resume the downtrend next week. Turning points often occur over holidays.


Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week with a negative divergence. Enjoy the Holiday weekend!


Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 2.0%.

European markets were also mostly higher and gained 2.5%.

The Commodity equity group was mixed but gained 1.4%.

The DJ World index gained 2.1%.


Bonds appear to be in a downtrend and lost 0.1% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 1.8% on the week.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 2.9% on the week.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.5% on the week.


Monday: holiday. Tuesday: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9am, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer confidence at 10am. Wednesday: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, Auto sales and the FED’s Beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, and the ADP. Friday: monthly Payrolls, the Trade deficit, Factory orders, ISM services, and FED governor Brainard speaks at the CFR. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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573 Responses to weekend update

  1. ajaysinghi says:

    As stated earlier, resistance 2103 and flat closing today. Primary B is over in my opinion.

    Fun starts from tomorrow. Let’s see.

  2. new closing high for the year on the sp. so much for the bear case.

  3. Bob Sagget says:

    Submitted with no further comment

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    9:30 – 3:00 corrective slow selling

    3:00 to 4:00 impulsive buying

    sure doesn’t look bearish to me

  5. For those who are wondering .. there are only three waves down from the high on an SP500 5-min chart. The EWO never made a third wave signature of a lower low.

    SPX - Five minute - May-31 1533 PM (5 min)


  6. captbara says:

    Another dip to buy oil, tight stops

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    all I know is the BTDRC (Buy the Dip Retarded Crowd) is relentless so lets see how the day closes. I will believe it when I see it as encouraging as today has been so far

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failure at R & outside day.
    What more do the Bears need?
    GL All

  9. Jack Sparrow says:

    seems like the first 5 wave structure is complete now

  10. bud67 says:

    NOTE. The SP failed to extend to the 2108 level, where
    the critical, lateral trend line is located. As a rule, the more
    failures at a price/trendline the stronger it tends to be….fyi

  11. H D says:

    -D on the F5 2104 aye? SPX -10 at 20(89), monthly range friendly 77. I’m sure those numbers are buried in the 525+ comments. Mondays have been BTD, bulls? where are you now?

    • H D says:

      I see the bulls coming back in after 10 handle ramp off the 89’s. classic. never on the lows. You guys have a good 1.

      record number of comments today, interpret as you see fit.

  12. phil1247 says:


    spx 2086 and our trendline today

  13. rd3777 says:

    A real nice broadening top in the NDX futures….a reverse of the P rally should take out the low by a healthy margin.

    • rd3777 says:

      That’s a bad azz looking top and the P did reverse down….fast!

      • rd3777 says:

        This market hasn’t even begin to fall…..

        • rd3777 says:

          Do not be deceived this baby will take off to the downside…..

          • hakunamatata1966 says:


            I love your Nasdaq 100 charts, please keep posting updates … really appreciate it. When you mention downside can your specify the downside target > Ty

            • rd3777 says:

              Well if we are now in the 28/55 day analog it is a possibility that this market will decline into July 6th or 7th and loose as much as 35 to 40 pct of it’s value. I expect Asia will start the waterfall Friday into next week….the bottom line this is a historical top. IMHO

  14. bud67 says:

    Crude Oil is topping out, price decline next,
    Using OIL, $6.50 should fall to $5.50, before next
    rally, resumes….fyi

  15. Jack Sparrow says:

    sees like we completed the first down- if this count is correct selling should pick up toward the end…if there is a strong then i need jump off from my bed

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      and i need to learn how to type. first wave down now correction up and third wave to start later in the afternoon for further selling

  16. rigged09 says:

    Rotation at it’s best. When Small Caps are strong, no chance for bears!

    • vivelaamo says:

      I hate to admit but you’re right.

    • captbara says:

      Russell just does not give a f**. Wow

      • torehund says:

        Rut going into a W-3 if it isn’t a high b, some x stuff fluff or a Complex 3 (working on the 3rd leg) ending shy of 130. Market knows how to pretend in many ways, as are the options in EW. Knowing more sometimes means knowing less, and only tons of experience can make you feel whats right considering the options. And I am not there yet.
        Seeing whats half baked as the finished product, well thats difficult as we stick to a pre-conceived structure too long, when its actually molding itself into something else on the go…. Thats life, and thats the allure of patterns, and of Elliot wave, amen.

  17. Bob Sagget says:

    Polls suggest Brexit more likely than Bremain.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      bremain – I like that

      • vivelaamo says:

        Brexit very unlikely. People will make a lot of noise about voting No but when its comes to the crunch the majority will shit it and vote to stay.

        • fionamargaret says:

          ..the gentleman who correctly gave the numbers for Scotland leaving the UK, said his numbers …wait for it….only 19% to leave….

          • torehund says:

            Fiona, ordinary folks dont know their own best, all university educated brainiacs knows that…..LOL.
            I have to admire the ingenuity of the migrants and refugees alike; think of what immense skills it takes to flee their former home grounds. Thats highly developed social and survivalist skills, much more complex than one would call pure survival instincts.
            I think we have to give credit to the market for knowing whats in its best interest, heck even the Chinese have been walking on the banana peel of planning society with less than good results (through the years). Just look at Venezuela, rigging the price of food (to help the poor), emptied supplies, as farmers could not any longer afford to buy seeds.
            Hope they stop rigging the elections, listen to nature for once and it sorts itself out, or it eventually piggies back in an unnatural way.

    • phil1247 says:


    • vivelaamo says:

      hoping to have closed all my shorts by then anyway.

    • HW says:

      Want the best prediction? Check the betting odds – wouldnt bet against Bremain…

  18. ECB meeting on Thursday…wait..

  19. Ajay Singhi says:

    Flat close likely.

  20. aahmichael says:

    For those who care about such things. we just put in an hourly 3BR. It’s a mirror image of the hourly 3BR that was put in at the 4/20 high. If the market can build on it the rest of the day, and close below 2090.06, then that will be a daily bearish engulfing pattern. Also, as I have mentioned several times throughout this month, every wave since the 4/20 high has been 8 days in duration, and today is the 8th day from the 2026 low.
    2111-2052 (4/20-4/29)
    2052-2085 (4/29-5/10)
    2085-2026 (5/10-5/19)
    2026-2103 (5/19-5/31)

    Putting it all together, if the bearish scenario continues to play out, then the market has provided a gift to everyone today, and given everyone one last chance to sell in May.
    (On the flip side, a move above 2103.22 in SPX will invalidate the hourly 3BR.)

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Good start too the week but still early days.

  22. An hour in to this trading session SPY made a perfect bounce on the steady trendline from above. If it breaks, bearish sentiments are weakening imo. Great Risk/Reward for shorting it.

  23. phil1247 says:


    bullish above 1208

    added more GLD……now 20% long

  24. bud67 says:

    OKE, one to watch. Nice steady price rally,
    possible time to pause, and refresh, buy lower.

  25. bud67 says:

    4/20 and 5/31 at aprox. 2 resistance levels.
    No, breakout as yet….

  26. locanbbs says:

    Stopped out. Downtrend beginning!?
    DJII (hourly):

    • vivelaamo says:

      with all due respect you found a bullish signal and traded it before markets had even re-opened following the holiday break. Was always going to be very risky.

      • locanbbs says:

        Thanks. Obviously a bull trap. Typical opening shenanigans. I was surprised at the massive reaction – a planned trap for sure. Luckily I had a close stop and a small trade. Only lost an Euro or two. Openings really a waste of time and money!

    • bud67 says:

      11:54 est – not yet, that I can see….

  27. johnnymagicmoney says:

    short BA with a stop

  28. phil1247 says:


    our favorite trendline sits at SPX 2086 todat

    can we hit it today????

  29. johnnymagicmoney says:

    weird day today

    Russell rallying in last hour with bonds while DOW and S&P selling off to slightly negative/flat.

  30. johnnymagicmoney says:

    wammy Number 1 – declining productivity
    wammy number 2 – increasing wage pressure
    wammy number 3 – continued cut in long term investment supplanted by buybacks
    wammy number 4 – the buybacks were made possible by increased debt levels which will become more of a drag as rates rise

    You could get more profits with cost pressures if demand skyrocketed or productivity increased but revenue numbers are barely over flat and with those cost pressures and a FED that wants to normalize it spells more of a squeeze for the S&P.

  31. Back to the SP500 30-min cash .. wave (iii) has nicely crossed the 1.618 x (i) level; making this most likely a fourth wave down. That’s primarily because 1.618 was slightly ‘exceeded’. In other words price keeps ‘making’ it’s upside targets — not missing them.

    SPX - Intraday - May-31 1040 AM (30 min)


  32. jjjzzzwww says:

    When was the last time a bull market went over a year with no new ATH? Thanks, in advance.

  33. Holly Silver says:

    Short term analysis: Market reaction muted. Not yet ready for another big surge. Looks like a more controlled move here. Should not get lower than 2058 on SPX during this run. Gold still holding at key areas and that too looks like a fight to hold. Do not see the next Bradley Date causing a deep slide. Sold my options for small loss. Market reaction against my assumptions .

    • EL MATADOR says:

      That makes no sense…. you are advocating “moonshot” yet you seem to be trading nervously…. Are you not more of a position traders vs swing/day trader, if so, then why not trade what you preach?

  34. johnnymagicmoney says:

    well regardless of whether this goes up more these next two days or so hourlys, dailys, and weeklys all overbought now. Last time weeklys up here we were at 2111 and before that 2116. I would expect some drop short term to work off some of this

  35. mjtplayer says:

    So far, another total snoozer on super light volume. Could be more of the same tomorrow as we await the ECB on Thursday and jobs print on Friday. ZZZzzzz…..

  36. rd3777 says:

    The market needs to put in a red candle today for the analog. So far we have a reversal opening.

  37. fishonhook says:

    Anyone else still holding some shorts like this bozo? What are your lines in the sand?
    Turns happens on holidays except when they dont

  38. torehund says:

    $SSEC, observation: From top there is an abc relation spotted. A,-inverted X,-B,-and C done prior to the 3,3 percent rally last night. This “might” be as far as it goes to the downside.
    Gov in China is paying a hoard of professional bloggers to utter something positive about life and society (in order to change the mood of the public) according to “news”. Maybe they ingest the bait…or maybe the rumor is fabricated by misanthropists. Maybe world is turning great all by itself, who knows ?

  39. Holly Silver says:

    Now the real test begins. The momentum indicators show a very powerful setup for SPX to hit around 2170. The fundamental data, as I have been shouting over, is signaling a strong economic resurgence and as such it is unlikely we are in a critical crash mode. How technicians can ignore fundamental analysis during such make or break levels is beyond me. I have stated forever that the charts are ugly but the fundamentals paint a different story. The income to outlays was much more than I wanted, and the street is not too happy with this notion of a strong acceleration. There better be more tempered news on the consumer or the dollar and yields can move up much faster than wanted. All about competition. Where to park your money. Gold should break down as Equities breaks up. Good week for determining the pulse of investors.

    • purplember says:

      fundamentals are strong huh. what color is the sky in your wold ?

      • Holly Silver says:

        blue skies, nothing but blue skies. Jobs, housing, discretionary income, spending, wages, low inflation, low costs, cheap lending. did you just ignore the data over the last 6 to 12 months that showed the consumer was actually getting healthier as the world economies struggled to stay afloat? I guess you either ignored or dismissed the hundreds of economic data points. Can’t do that especially when the market looks like it’s about to fall over. Leeson learnt? Probably not since we are a creature of habit and do not change very often.

        • stcoleridge says:

          Do you actually live in the US?

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          it is very typical for a recession to begin after full employment because of the wage pressure that corporations face which follow cuts in cap ex and jobs. Productivity is declining not accelerating but you don’t bring this up. profits are declining not accelerating but you don’t bring this up. You can talk about great jobs and wages and incomes all you want but you neglect the fact that coporations are facing a quadruple wammy.

          wammy Number 1 – declining productivity
          wammy number 2 – increasing wage pressure
          wammy number 3 – continued cut in long term investment supplanted by buybacks
          wammy number 4 – the buybacks were made possible by increased debt levels which will become more of a drag as rates rise

          You could get more profits with cost pressures if demand skyrocketed or productivity increased but revenue numbers are barely over flat and with those cost pressures and a FED that wants to normalize it spells more of a squeeze for the S&P. This is simple simple economics Holly. Corporations are not investing they are mortgaging their future to prop up short term numbers which still show declines after their engineering! Recessions start when rates start to rise and their is full employment like there is now. Its ironic but it happens all the time. Slack is good. When things are at their best is when it begins to unravel. Your indicators are lagging

          • mcgcapital says:

            +1 great post. Bulls need new highs to even have anything to brag about, and even then they will still be faced with the issues you outline

  40. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Spx (hourly) –
    New buy signal!

  41. Millan Tomic says:

    One thing that is interesting is that we are already past 2007 valuation top as measured by P/cycle peak EPS. SPX topped at 17.2x in 2007 and 27x in 2000 (all time bubble high). Cycle peak EPS this time is 114.50, so currently we are already>18x and based on that range above SPX could be 1970-3100. So implicitly, we are already in lower level bubble territory and also confirms that Wave 5s are purely based on speculation which is subsequently wiped out by the next bear market.

    This is a very tough environment for traditional PMs and could only make it more difficult for the active AM industry to compete against ETFs.

  42. bud67 says:

    Further – the SP500 price pattern from the May 2015 high.
    Has a significant trend line, extending in a slightly down
    to right sideways position. Which implies. Price resistance is
    from the 2135 high, now to 2106, and falling slowly from there.

    Implication is a break above 2108 would lead to 2208, being the next
    resistance level…

  43. Bradley Turn Date, June 1st

  44. pfm225 says:

    hi from EU surroundings
    so far quite…………….but soon shuld see some action………………;)

    • pfm225 says:

      meant quiet…..

      • ogdenfripp says:

        pfm, what sort action are you suggesting. DAX. …..I can see some impulsive selling on short term timeframes, quick close of the gap up, then likely reversal to new highs for the month. What are you thinking ?

        • pfm225 says:

          that is the most likely
          but i dont do much swing trading
          mostly short on italian stocks amongst the weakest in EU and for now waiting and hoping ES doesnt spoils the party 😉

    • Most of the posts in response to the weekend update are bullish yet the fundamentals are awful for EM & US equities , the only reason people own equities is TINA there is no alternative, but there always is an alternative. Meanwhile technical analysts debate the unpredictable, eventually reality will catchup with those who purely trend trade off technical analysis. Remember there are few technical analysts who are independently wealthy and but many wealthy individuals who employ fundamental analysis and technical analysis who are independently wealthy. Tony does a great job at giving us some technical clues as to future market direction but this can only be resolved with sensible understanding of the fundamental facts. Remember the majority of money is managed by fudamentalists.

  45. Whoever has been hammering my twitter account so I can’t login, FK U and the broken EW count you rode in on.

  46. TMF says:

    Just catching up ! Lol

    Bitcoin exploded as expected. Hopefully some on the board made some $.


    ETF was a good buy last week at $60. Solid trend line / 50/65dma.


    Weekly. Why not test the high tick at $95 ?


  47. TMF says:

    The yen could be a tailwind for stocks soon if it breaks Friday’s low. Still looks like a long term bottom but a test of breakout around 86 seems reasonable.


  48. TMF says:

    The transports are signaling a short term correction is coming. Rising wedge into moving averages. Hopefully it can break above that and the downtrend line soon.


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