Friday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +45

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.5%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2090 close, then rose to 2097 by 11:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 94.7 v 95.4. After a pullback to SPX 2092 by 2:30 the market rallied to 2099 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Monday is a national holiday in the US.

The market opened slightly higher today, rallied to SPX 2097, pulled back to the opening level, then rallied to 2099 where it closed. Overall a positive day on extremely light volume again. The market has traded on the lightest volume since Christmas Eve three days this week: Monday, Thursday and Friday. This rally that started about a week and half ago has travelled 73 points without one notable reversal. If it continues to move higher we are likely to get an uptrend confirmation soon. Implications will be noted in the weekend update. Best to your three-day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

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87 Responses to Friday update

  1. torehund says:

    We are in the Zone, a time when sentiment flips in either direction. Do we really have the guts to face reality, call a spade a spade. Rid ourself of how we “wish it should be” compared to “how it is”. If we aren’t yet ready, take a pill and enter the age of collective delusion. It sure works; Scientology, Jehovas witnesses and many other authoritarian sects define the current truth and expel the non-believers as madmen, freeze them out, ridicule and silence them in order to uphold the hierarchy. Punched out, the diverging minds can hardly discern right from wrong; the majority decision always define sanity…
    This applies to the market too, reaction always lags the first astute observer. But that doesn’t mean you are wrong, market and group psychology is all about timing.
    If there is no good alternative at hand its maybe better to pretend all is sound, then problems may disentangle all by themselves…
    How far can you stretch the truth, should we believe the Norwegian police sold 50 tons of marihuana to infiltrate the criminals. Then, what about 35 ton of Heroin imported “legally” in 2009 and sold by the Norwegian police in order to confound two “criminals” from eastern Europe (the plot didn’t even put them behind bars).
    An expelled undercover police officer has been accused, and promises to speak openly as he has nothing to loose. The trial is being postponed and mass media is now attempting to build a credibility wall in front of the trial (as I see it).
    Lets see what happens to all the European currencies; confidence HAVE to be wearing thin by now, but I sure have been wrong before 🙂


  2. Hi everybody
    for trader joe who is at the top

    is what you could put a graphic
    in daily and weekly because it gets complicated
    I thank you in advance


  3. Hi Tony
    Have been following your blog for a few year as its a more sensible version of elliottwave. I enjoy how you count often lines up with the key fundamentals.

    I think the bearish case is strong, Chinese banks have a large short USD swap position which is rolling every 3 mths and requires liquid USD to maintain the margin with JPM, C and GS & the European IB’s. Any further USD strength will force them to devalue the USDCNY. US listed earnings growth are negative when you add back one offs, global trade is shrinking look at the stats. for all the major economies, VIX is back at its lows investors have no fear. Don’t forgot bank regulation is forcing banks to reduce their balance sheets which is a form of credit tightening.

    I think the Chinese reserve stat’s due on 7th June should trigger some extreme volatility in the USDCNH which will trigger some extreme global risk aversion. Don’t forget if the FED tightens in June that is a interest rate hike for all those emerging countries which borrowed 7 trillion in USD unhedged over the last 7 years.



  4. fotis2 says:

    Crude nibling at shorts here having been stopped out at previous entry lets see ..


    • phil1247 says:


      if its a wedge it should collapse but….

      consider this…
      .dollar is surging and oil goes up

      massive oversupply and oil goes up

      bullish above 48.47 CLN6

      target 50.85

      Liked by 1 person

  5. R D. says:

    Anyone thinking that there is a large up move coming or a breakout ought be hedging your bets.The VIX & VXO = Bollinger Bands are telling quite a different story.There are too many
    conditions in the Markets that say a Top is imminent .


  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Just noticed XJY filled its 90.25 gap I’ve been watching…and bounced.Not a lower low.Perfectly executed by the algos.Now up to gap 94–taking gold with it,hopefully.Short term stuff.Good luck all.


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