Thursday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day ahead of Friday’s GDP report, DOW -23

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 268K v 278K, and Durable goods were reported higher: +3.4% v +0.8%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2091 close and immediately began to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.1% v +1.4%. At 11am the SPX hit 2087 and then started to drift higher. At 12:30 FED governor Powell speech: By 3:30 the SPX hit 2093, and then pulled back to close at 2090.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Today Q2 GDP was raised: +2.9% v +2.5%. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est. +1.0%) at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened higher today, pullback 7 points, then went sideways for the rest of the day. It appears Memorial day holiday trading is already underway. The market did pullback after yesterday’s short term negative divergence. But so far it is only 8 points. The previous pullback, since the SPX 2026 low last week, was only 11 points. Nearly a 70 point rally with only two small pullbacks along the way. So far not much selling pressure during this rally. The market needs to drop back into the 2070 pivot range to get selling pressure underway. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading the GDP report tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

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283 Responses to Thursday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    da boyz want their /ES 2097 target hit today

    • phil1247 says:

      wait for it……………….

    • EL MATADOR says:

      had ES short order (2nd lot) place at 2097.5 and just got executed after the bell 🙂 ….. this bring my avg price to 2086 ….. If we get a decent pullback over weekend I be cover my 2nd lot and let my first lot run 🙂

  2. Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend, and don’t venture too close to the cliff ledge!!

  3. Mass hysteria, a.k.a. “hysterical contagion,” or more generally “psychogenic epidemic,” is the phenomenon of multiple people experiencing some of the same symptoms of hysteria. Hysteria is the designation for a malady in which sufferers may present an extraordinary and shifting range of physical symptoms. It is also a colloquial label for mass delusions, where large groups of people all claim to have seen impossible events, such as floating saints or the like. Despite all appearances, the World Cup is not an example.

  4. blackjak100 says:

    Close on 2099ish to complete x wave (abc) and a mini fractal of P4 as seen on Todd Gordon’s latest video??? Drop hard on Tuesday to start int C. Possible

  5. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Tony ,
    I would like to start off by saying that I absolutely hope you crush your bear market SPX call and thousands rush to sign up for your OEW tutoring. With that said , I know how much you hurt when you wrote this OEW update ( ) . I believe the last paragraph truly sums up your empathy for your legion of followers . So that this does not happen again , what is the highest level the SPX can trade before a new count is warranted ? Very simple question .
    Have a great holiday

  6. avkanoi says:

    Why do we always rally this big only after a downtrend confirmation…. ?

  7. ESF cleanup crew busy after Janet ran her mouth.

  8. phil1247 says:


    looking wedge like

    maybe da boyz throwover the top line and hit the 2097 target?

    they are sneaky

  9. fionamargaret says:

    ..I hope you all have a lovely long weekend…x

  10. phil1247 says:


    anybody home at 1209.5? ie buyers show up….

    if not …. big trouble ahead

  11. Pre 2008–the Fed was not interfering as they do now.Rates across the spectrum were higher and everyone could trade off indicators and charts that meant something…which is fine.I’m just saying comparisons of rates going up to 6% now as opposed to pre 2008 wouldn’t work.The rate of increase alone would crush equities(Going from 5%-8% not the same as going from .25 to 4%).

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Learned, Fed prior is to avoid a relapse of the mistakes they did during the 1933-1937 recovery…. The Fed/Govt has done extension study and written countless paper

      • Right…don’t raise rates in a poor economy.0.8% gdp is not good.1.6 the first half (with no guarantees in the 2nd half),not good enough to raise rates.It’s all currency related verbals.Nothing more.

  12. phil1247 says:


    sure looks like 96.25 is next station stop …HWB

    dollar rallying because of something yellin said????

    probably not ………….its what the trend was before she opened her mouth

  13. rd3777 says:

    Could that be 5 down….lol….

  14. Jack Sparrow says:

    ok folks time to hit the beach i am also short the market right around 2096. not worth wasting an afternoon for few points here and there

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Here is the main reason why the market is addicted to every friggin word of the FED

    it allows them to ignore earnings and global risks. Its the latest invention of greed and rationalization

    Its that simple

    • phil1247 says:

      johnny….you think the fed has magical powers???

      they dont have the power to change the trend

      they couldnt stop spx from going to 666

      heck …i showed that even kennedys assasination was a one day blip

      then the trend upward continued the next day

      • Phil,if the Fed raised rates one percent in June–the trend d would change.

        • phil1247 says:

          probably not ….

          read tonys analysis of decades of rates and markets

          rates below 6% have little effect on the stock market

          • phil1247 says:

            also his analysis showed earnings have little corellation as well
            ..only 58%..little better than a coin toss

            confidence is the key….

        • They are keeping rates low as insurance.They don’t want competition for equity dollars.Bond yields at 4% would siphon money out of stocks.Gold moving up–same thing.

          • Their thinking is hopefully pensions can remain solvent and become more solvent with this plan.That s one reason.Financing debt is the other reason.Plus the CEOs get nice money from stock options going up.A trifecta.

          • phil1247 says:

            also the market raises rates first …..

            then the fed follows the market..

            not the other way around

            • I really doubt that the Fed hasn’t totally overwhelmed the bond market with QEs and “sneaky”balance sheet manipulation to keep rates down.I don’t know if they are partners with banks and brokerages to do this…they’ll never tell.

      • jhjoyner says:

        The Fed does add and subtract from its balance sheet on a regular basis and it does affect price movement. Charts show this but it is always hindsight.

    • allen1929 says:

      Yellen just said she has no bullets left in her gun,so to speak

  16. Yellen getting ready to speaketh.Supposed to be questions about monetary policy.She also has a big speech June 6th.No prepared text today.Gold cut a couple dollars off initially,but just watch the dollar and gold to know what she said.

    • 123 abc says:

      “…move the markets before the money managers go to the Hamptons…” —and she did !

      • Prompted if she wants to move markets so traders can go to the Hamptons — Yellen says she’ll make a few sentences. “It’s appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time,” Yellen says, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.

        This is NOT a hawkish comment.No different from the past year.Any interpretation that she thinks interest rates need to be raised immediately is wrong.She hates production numbers also.

        • “I think,probably that rates should gradually,cautiously,some time,somewhere,in a few months…did I say maybe?Incre—no I can’t say it”…lol
          –Janet Yellen today

  17. torehund says:

    Not much happening in the market today, sunny outside 🙂 Good weekend Tony and all.

  18. captbara says:

    captbara on May 26, 2016 at 10:43 am

    The relentless grind up of int iii – maj 1 of P5 begins. Expect to see extended riding of the upper BB.

    • cyanus66 says:

      That is probably the entire point.
      The actual rate hike needs to find carefree ‘upper-BB riders’ if the main attraction is destined to be a ‘Livestock Show & Rodeo’.

      • captbara says:

        Rate hike is a smokescreen. The threat of it killed markets from Aug to Feb mostly because yen was strengthening. YCT is still a major factor in propping things up since 2010.

  19. 123 abc says:

    Possible negative divergence….

    • absolutely.looks like a down 40-50 pts next week (if PPT stays out).

    • pete8675309 says:

      Agreed, non confirmation– low volume, targets hit, sell the Yellen non event speech– potential rollover imo (opinions are not worth 2 cents so do your own due diligence, trade what you know and what’s in front of you and use tight stops)

  20. rd3777 says:

    Only a matter of time…before the big C get’s going in a 3rd wave down….

  21. SP500 15-min chart before Yellen speech : new higher highs, and closing in on 1.618 extension. Will need to change to 30-min chart soon, as there are more than 160 candles on the chart. Note that those who cited a ‘bearish harami’ yesterday, had those candles invalidated today with the higher highs.

    SPX - Fifteen Minute - May-27 1130 AM (15 min)


  22. phil1247 says:

    / ES

    pushing up thru 2094

    if 2097 extension long target is blown out to the upside …..

    next ext long target is 2103….

    could create panic short covering upside acceleration if extensions continue

  23. Jack Sparrow says:

    Hi Fiona-a wise person once said that you can apply here also the derivative of it..that when you get your bachelors -you think you know everything in the world…then when you get your masters- you realize that maybe you dont know that much as you thought you did and your confidence shakes up. then when you finally get your Ph.D-you still know that you dont know anything but now you know that people around you also dont know anything

    • phil1247 says:


      its like the 18 year old who moved out
      because he couldnt stand it that his father didnt know anything

      when he returned 5 years later

      he was amazed at how much the old man had learned in 5 short years

    • fionamargaret says:

      …that is totally true…did you get the numbers on wednesday update Sparrow…?x

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      those who say do not know and those who know do not say

      so I’ll stay quiet =)

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        yes guys – I was talking to myself in front of mirror when i came up with that saying. FM will do over the weekend – I am a lazy bump when it comes to checking old posts

  24. aahmichael says:

    I just doubled my short position at 2094. Now short at 2087 average.

  25. scottycj1 says:

    365.25 (avg days in a year) times 1618 =5909 (move the decimal)
    TODAY is 5908 days from the Mar 24th 2000 high

  26. fishonhook says:

    is there Any chance in the next few weeks we will be getting a mea culpa and a switch to P5?

  27. 123 abc says:

    Interestingly, the DOW hasn’t taken out the high from 25th Wed although the SPX/SPY did so —possibly a sign of a weaking uptrend; specualtive squiggles…

  28. phil1247 says:

    / ES

    2094 target hit

    one down and one to go

  29. iamwhoiis says:

    I don’t care whether you’re bullish or bearish long or intermediate term, that right there is a cheap short short term IMO.

  30. Chris C says:

    Why do people get mad on this forum when others share their opinion of their opinion ? lol

    • Something one of the futures traders that I follow posted yesterday:
      cognitive dissonance is a normal part of business/risk taking/speculation. some traders want conviction and jump on those who don’t have it
      … to which i say…
      It ain’t what we don’t know that hurts us, it’s what we know for certain that just ain’t so. –Mark Twain

  31. scottycj1 says:

    Actually if you use the longer more accurate definition of Pi… get 3.141593 X 666.79 which gives us 2094.78, closer to today’s high so far

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      seems like we are at the end of this move from 2025. last stage waiting for fed gov. to speak ..then a correction of 30/40 points at least maybe more

  32. mjtplayer says:

    The QQQ’s, a perfect kiss of the downtrend line this a.m. – right to the penny.

  33. mjtplayer says:

    Yesterday was the lightest volume day of the year for the SPY, beating out Monday’s low volume day. We could challenge that today, having an unprecedented situation where the 3 lightest volume days of the year all occurred in the same week.

    We have a shot at the lightest volume week of 2016, which was the week of 3/21 due to the markets being closed for Good Friday. It will be close. Either way, we’ll have less volume this week (a full 5 trading days) than the week of 12/21 – when the market was only open 3.5 days!!!

    Yes, markets have rallied nicely on price this week, but on air. No volume, none, zero.

    • vivelaamo says:

      This is what I keep saying. This week is the equivalent of the festive period of December which is why it amazes me people have turned all bullish based on it. If we see the same action next week then fair enough but this week is insignificant in my opinion.

      • Dex T says:

        It’s summertime- light volume is expected. Many of the human traders have mentally checked out and focusing on vacation and other things.

        Next real big event to bring volume is the Fed meeting.

    • Two or three things maybe it was trying to do. 1 is put in an extreme for the Bradley window you pointed out. Would be nice to see a solid reversal lower on that this afternoon, even if we get a bit higher. So far its a 4 week extreme, but above 2000 would be a 5 week extreme, and above 2111 a multi-month extreme.

      Another is gap fill for the two gap downs last week, both now filled. The process has left three daily gaps now below though, plus the March monthly gap up and the 1865 weekly gap up from February open still too.

      The third is the obvious move into Yellen and a holiday weekend, especially since China didn’t push more last night or Wednesday night.

      Guess we will have to see if Yellen can get things moving here.

  34. phil1247 says:


    short traded early am at 1225

    TARGET 1208

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