Thursday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day ahead of Friday’s GDP report, DOW -23

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 268K v 278K, and Durable goods were reported higher: +3.4% v +0.8%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2091 close and immediately began to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.1% v +1.4%. At 11am the SPX hit 2087 and then started to drift higher. At 12:30 FED governor Powell speech: By 3:30 the SPX hit 2093, and then pulled back to close at 2090.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Today Q2 GDP was raised: +2.9% v +2.5%. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est. +1.0%) at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened higher today, pullback 7 points, then went sideways for the rest of the day. It appears Memorial day holiday trading is already underway. The market did pullback after yesterday’s short term negative divergence. But so far it is only 8 points. The previous pullback, since the SPX 2026 low last week, was only 11 points. Nearly a 70 point rally with only two small pullbacks along the way. So far not much selling pressure during this rally. The market needs to drop back into the 2070 pivot range to get selling pressure underway. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading the GDP report tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend weakening

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

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283 Responses to Thursday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    da boyz want their /ES 2097 target hit today


  2. Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend, and don’t venture too close to the cliff ledge!!


  3. Mass hysteria, a.k.a. “hysterical contagion,” or more generally “psychogenic epidemic,” is the phenomenon of multiple people experiencing some of the same symptoms of hysteria. Hysteria is the designation for a malady in which sufferers may present an extraordinary and shifting range of physical symptoms. It is also a colloquial label for mass delusions, where large groups of people all claim to have seen impossible events, such as floating saints or the like. Despite all appearances, the World Cup is not an example.


  4. blackjak100 says:

    Close on 2099ish to complete x wave (abc) and a mini fractal of P4 as seen on Todd Gordon’s latest video??? Drop hard on Tuesday to start int C. Possible


  5. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Tony ,
    I would like to start off by saying that I absolutely hope you crush your bear market SPX call and thousands rush to sign up for your OEW tutoring. With that said , I know how much you hurt when you wrote this OEW update ( ) . I believe the last paragraph truly sums up your empathy for your legion of followers . So that this does not happen again , what is the highest level the SPX can trade before a new count is warranted ? Very simple question .
    Have a great holiday


  6. avkanoi says:

    Why do we always rally this big only after a downtrend confirmation…. ?


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