Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening again, DOW +145

Overnight the Asian markets gained 2.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am FHFA housing was reported higher: +0.7% v +0.4%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2084 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2076 yesterday. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2094. Then after a pullback to SPX 2089 by 12:30 the market hit 2094 again by 2:30. After another dip to SPX 2089 by 3pm, the market bounced to 2095 by 3:30, then closed at 2091.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.70%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods at 8:30, Pending home sales at 10am, then a speech from FED governor Powell at 12:30.

The market gapped up for the second day in a row for the first time since mid-April. After opening around the 2085 pivot the market then traded in, and above, its upper band for the rest of the day. This is a much stronger rally than what was expected for an Int. B wave. At today’s high short term momentum was extremely overbought and set up another potential negative divergence. The market now needs to drop below SPX 2069 to get some downside momentum going. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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221 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Jack Sparrow says:

    some great posts today. one being about we are more busy about wave counts than making actual money (that is why prechter and his team are more busy in selling their reports rather than making money from those calls. the other one was about bear will celebrate if turn from 2134 after missing a 300 point move up…. then we have holly who thinks she is know it all. then I wonder how many times have bud threatened to leave his house if his wife overcooked the eggs for breakfast.

    last four months have been a great study…

    • fionamargaret says:

      ….scroll down to where you and BJ were talking – I left numbers, but had no access to my charts to give the correct ones, but you will get my drift….it was for Thursday….maybe still applicable….speak to me at the weekend…..x

  2. Thanks Tony
    Investments in oil extraction are long and expensive
    i don’t believe USA gov/ wants a “casino” in oil prices,thanks
    monthly log

  3. Japanese PM is making some announcement on Monday 30th Mya, when US markets are closed. He wont make negative announcements. If you are Short, please ensure your account is funded properly, as all you will be sleeping when Japanese PM makes announcement (else when you wake up, you will see 10s of missed calls from your brokers)

    • mjtplayer says:

      What’s left for them to do? They’re already engaged in massive QE and NIRP – neither are working. My guess is they start to bring rates back to 0%, recognizing NIRP is a disaster.

    • fotis2 says:

      ”Please deposit funds into your account” Hahahaha had a few of those myself Shrihas.

  4. vivelaamo says:

    The way is see it is next week is either going to correct from the start of the week or there will be one last exhaustive move up to test April highs before we plummet.

  5. EL MATADOR says:

    My thoughts and position as of today regarding CL (oil futures), as posted @Pretzels;

    Post: #90RE: Daily BB for Thinking mans Thursday
    (Today 07:36 AM)EL MATADOR Wrote:
    i shorted at 50.05 ….. the OVX has close below it’s LBB band for past few days…. time for a plunger, if that’s what it wants to do

    (Today 07:55 AM)EL MATADOR Wrote:
    it shouldn’t break 50.50 …. but R/R favor big down … I don’t mind draw downs as long as i’m on the right side of the greater R/R trend

    Looks like no draw down position for me only coffee $$ …. And check out the daily candle, if it closes near here then we are going lower for some more coffee $$

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      sometimes if you can ride the waves its like actually surfing in australia so far i have surfed all the waves correctly since morning- shorted at high covered at the low and shorted again and covered again going to short soon

  6. mjtplayer says:

    It doesn’t get more boring than today, tight range with super light volume. Today we’re on pace for the lightest volume day of 2016, which was Monday. This will certainly be one of the lightest volume weeks of the year and should be the lightest volume week for a full 5 trading days.


  7. purplember says:

    GLD in expanded flat. a 115, b 124 c to ? $114 38% retrace or $112 range 50%

  8. TMF says:

    Its going to be a STRONG finish to the week !

    Sets up for a correction next week as there is a clear 5 wave impulse up after one more pop….

    Enjoy the weekend !

    • Craig Bland says:

      I completely agree! That’s why I said yesterday that today would be a sideway/consolidation day. I am loaded up for tomorrow for a BIG up day. I am looking for oil to lead the way higher. That said I plan on being out tomorrow sometime, just for the fact that I like to clear my head over a long weekend. It is nice not to think about the markets plus look at the market with an unbiased view and see how Tuesday opens. Anything can happen over a long weekend

      Best to everyone’s trading! And looking forward to a big up day tomorrow.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks TMF.

  9. simpleiam says:

    Strongest Buy % I’ve seen in a while (72%). Just one of the many sites I monitor, and a high TRIN to boot, so who knows…$TRIN

  10. Powell speaks–the dollar yawns.”We will increase rates gradually,IF economic numbers improve”.This is a recording.So the dollar moved from 95.10 to 95.28–still down on the day.Too much Fedspeak will do that.Durables said to be unimpressive.The beat goes on.

  11. captbara says:

    The relentless grind up of int iii – maj 1 of P5 begins. Expect to see extended riding of the upper BB.

  12. fishonhook says:

    Is this how C waves start?

    • timmy321 says:

      Not sure about C but this is how a downtrend starts every single time. It will pullback when an uptrend is confirmed.

      • jhjoyner says:

        Just a few points above 2100

        • fionamargaret says:

          2105 is the next number…..x

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            what is your methodology come clean- is it a crystal ball or tarot cards. I hope you are not sitting in some dark room…that is more fitting of me instead of you

            • Jack Sparrow says:

              just shorted oil for a dollar down move

              • fionamargaret says:

                …but oil is going higher in the afternoon…did you manage to speak to Michael…not much going on during the night, thus no messages…everybody gone…nice beach house long weekend..mmmm…but not for me…back to the dark room…x

              • fionamargaret says:


              • Jack Sparrow says:

                who is michael- AAh? he must be revisiting his drawing board- he is a very smart guy but sometime smartness makes thing very complicated- his last count was very very complicated. But he is good – knows his stuff. yeah people going to beach house over the long weekend…l am just trying to learn markets

              • Jack Sparrow says:

                good on aapl- one thing i have learned in last four months- once you have a clarity on something – go big- that way you dont have the urge to trade more often- the more you trade -you are opening yourself to wrong calls- makea few calls but go big, now if uyou had gone really big on aapl- you be busy over the weekend looking for your second beachhouse

          • vivelaamo says:

            If we see 2105 and it’s a big IF. Any move higher will be short lived.

            • fionamargaret says:

              Well Vive we will short then…….the next number we have to break through to the upside is 2105, and I think we will revisit 2135 sometime within the next few months….but that doesn’t say we won’t go down a few times….oil is up to 55, so that is a plus, and then if it corrects to 40, that is a nice short trade…maybe gold will become playable again…..
              I went long oil, and bought TQQQ, and more AAPL to cover me some if UWTI did not oblige….main thing is, is to be flexible… one knows what is going to happen….find your spots, and if you find good ones, let us know……x

  13. phil1247 says:

    Fiona…..just for you…

    nice bounce from 49.24 eh??
    next target 50.57

    below 48.24 is a big problem

  14. simpleiam says:

    Heard this live this morning. Wells Fargo is tough, compared to what’s going on here in Texas.

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    bad news for bears…………………not far from the highs and the hourly RSI drops from like 93 to 53 on a 7 point S&P handle drop. Not good. The sentiment is market can handle rate hikes, people are buying homes like there is no tomorrow, economy is improving and places like China don’t even exist anymore……………that and oil is now at 50

    sentiment is strong right now. I think June we finally break through and hit all time highs.

  16. mjtplayer says:

    Just over an hour into the trading day the SPX has traded just 3pts on either side of 2,090. I hope something else occurs, otherwise it’s going to be a super boring day.


    • vivelaamo says:

      Get used to it because it will be like this until next Tuesday.

      • mjtplayer says:

        Probably, but hopefully not, would like to see a slow roll today and tomorrow

        • ewtoriginal says:

          SPY option volatility is the lowest I have seen. So after a huge rally and a no give back the need to own them here is stunning. So options arent pricing in Pages collapse or someone else’s big up and a 15 handle move up or down will be a surprise.

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