Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening again, DOW +145

Overnight the Asian markets gained 2.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am FHFA housing was reported higher: +0.7% v +0.4%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2084 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2076 yesterday. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2094. Then after a pullback to SPX 2089 by 12:30 the market hit 2094 again by 2:30. After another dip to SPX 2089 by 3pm, the market bounced to 2095 by 3:30, then closed at 2091.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.70%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods at 8:30, Pending home sales at 10am, then a speech from FED governor Powell at 12:30.

The market gapped up for the second day in a row for the first time since mid-April. After opening around the 2085 pivot the market then traded in, and above, its upper band for the rest of the day. This is a much stronger rally than what was expected for an Int. B wave. At today’s high short term momentum was extremely overbought and set up another potential negative divergence. The market now needs to drop below SPX 2069 to get some downside momentum going. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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221 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Jack Sparrow says:

    some great posts today. one being about we are more busy about wave counts than making actual money (that is why prechter and his team are more busy in selling their reports rather than making money from those calls. the other one was about bear will celebrate if turn from 2134 after missing a 300 point move up…. then we have holly who thinks she is know it all. then I wonder how many times have bud threatened to leave his house if his wife overcooked the eggs for breakfast.

    last four months have been a great study…


    • fionamargaret says:

      ….scroll down to where you and BJ were talking – I left numbers, but had no access to my charts to give the correct ones, but you will get my drift….it was for Thursday….maybe still applicable….speak to me at the weekend…..x


  2. Thanks Tony
    Investments in oil extraction are long and expensive
    i don’t believe USA gov/ wants a “casino” in oil prices,thanks
    monthly log


  3. Japanese PM is making some announcement on Monday 30th Mya, when US markets are closed. He wont make negative announcements. If you are Short, please ensure your account is funded properly, as all you will be sleeping when Japanese PM makes announcement (else when you wake up, you will see 10s of missed calls from your brokers)


    • mjtplayer says:

      What’s left for them to do? They’re already engaged in massive QE and NIRP – neither are working. My guess is they start to bring rates back to 0%, recognizing NIRP is a disaster.


    • fotis2 says:

      ”Please deposit funds into your account” Hahahaha had a few of those myself Shrihas.


  4. vivelaamo says:

    The way is see it is next week is either going to correct from the start of the week or there will be one last exhaustive move up to test April highs before we plummet.


  5. EL MATADOR says:

    My thoughts and position as of today regarding CL (oil futures), as posted @Pretzels;

    Post: #90RE: Daily BB for Thinking mans Thursday
    (Today 07:36 AM)EL MATADOR Wrote:
    i shorted at 50.05 ….. the OVX has close below it’s LBB band for past few days…. time for a plunger, if that’s what it wants to do

    (Today 07:55 AM)EL MATADOR Wrote:
    it shouldn’t break 50.50 …. but R/R favor big down … I don’t mind draw downs as long as i’m on the right side of the greater R/R trend

    Looks like no draw down position for me only coffee $$ …. And check out the daily candle, if it closes near here then we are going lower for some more coffee $$


    • Jack Sparrow says:

      sometimes if you can ride the waves its like actually surfing in australia so far i have surfed all the waves correctly since morning- shorted at high covered at the low and shorted again and covered again going to short soon


  6. mjtplayer says:

    It doesn’t get more boring than today, tight range with super light volume. Today we’re on pace for the lightest volume day of 2016, which was Monday. This will certainly be one of the lightest volume weeks of the year and should be the lightest volume week for a full 5 trading days.



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