Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening. DOW +213

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 2.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2060 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2048 yesterday. At 10am New home sales were reported higher: 619K v 511K. The rally continued to rally, with only one 4 point pullback, until the SPX hit 2080 at 3:30. Then the market pulled back to close at SPX 2076.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.00%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained 75 cents, Gold dropped $21, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: FHFA housing index at 9am.

The market gapped up at the open today after the lowest volume of the year yesterday. Overnight futures appeared to be following the DAX, as it rose 3% from its opening low to finish +2.3% on the day. After the European markets closed the SPX made only 5 additional points upside progress. Today’s high, SPX 2080, hit the lower range of the 2085 pivot, which is slightly above the level we were expecting for this Int. wave B rally from SPX 2026. Int. B could still travel a bit higher, but any intraday decline below SPX 2058 will suggest it has ended. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2111. Short term momentum was quite overbought at the today’s high, and ended with a slight negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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345 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. locanbbs says:

    Thanks, Tony! (Probable) Support channel (double top or consolidation?) beginning at 2080 –
    Spx (hourly):

  2. I just stopped by to see what flavor Kool-Aid the BullTards had selected for this ABC move.

  3. rigged09 says:

    Tony has a hell of a tough job in this bot controlled market!

  4. Here’s where we likely are about 30-minutes before the close. The NQ, ES and RUT have made their potential B wave FLAT targets, the DOW has not yet. The 1.618 x (i) level could be tagged today or tomorrow.

    SPX - Intraday - May-25 1521 PM (15 min)


  5. finally, a small crack in the Bulls armor

  6. 123 abc says:

    Intermediate-b are we done…?

    • blackjak100 says:

      No, still needs 11+ pt pullback for wave iv in S&P. With today’s high holding for several hrs now, we must see the rest of pullback tomorrow. Then, final high FRI.

  7. rd3777 says:

    This run is really long in the tooth here….

  8. captbara says:

    2009 analog as I theorized weeks ago playing out.

  9. Crude 4h log-scale. Just sayin’

    • Craig Bland says:

      I think oil is in more of a channel than a wedge. Your bottom trend right is correct, but the top one might not work out. That said if that bottom trend line is broken, I will be out of oil quickly.

      Good luck!

  10. Jack Sparrow says:

    Fiona – in spite of all this oil is still holding below the trend line.

  11. phil1247 says:


    looking for quick drop to spx 2086……………why???

    • fotis2 says:

      Dont know all I see this is not looking healthy for bulls

      • Craig Bland says:

        I think oil is going to break higher(over 50) by this weekend. Friday will be a BIG UP day. That will keep the markets up and make everyone feel rosy going into the long weekend. I have noticed over the years that “they” like to have the market UP into long weekends.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Well Craig one of the recognized experts on Bloomberg assured that oil would be 50 today…uh oh

        • fotis2 says:

          The money was made for those that caught the move in the low 30s at this point its scraching the bottom oft he barrel maybe another 3or 4 bucks up looking stretched now what effect this will have on the Market is a cointoss call of course anything can happen and thats why we all here..

    • fotis2 says:

      I’m looking for an entry for longer term short hopefully the C wave

      • phil1247 says:

        dont short until the extension long breaks

        or if really aggressive … wait for 15 min short to hold

        if u r long term u dont have to catch the exact top

  12. I posted this from goldtadise recently.Thought it was an important chart. $10 overshoots on the high end,so 1220 would go below the trendline by the same amount.Of course,rooting for a move back to the top.Good luck all.

    • purplember says:

      she’s corrupt. system is broken – out with all politicians…. bigger issue is the $500 million to clinton foundation from foreigners. i’m sure there’s nothing there

    • mjtplayer says:

      The question is – will the gov’t press charges or will political favoritism take hold?

      If the gov’t presses charges, does Hillary still win the Dem nomination or does Bernie get the nod? If Bernie, then there’s your plunge for major C

      • simpleiam says:

        I seriously doubt she’ll be brought up on charges. She’ll wiggle her way out, with the help of hubby Billiam.

        • Dex T says:

          Maybe, but thankfully the Republicans have a fighter like Trump who excels with using this type of info.

        • H D says:

          I really can’t believe this is such an issue for people. Same audit found Rice and Powell used personal email and servers. Are we going to charge all 3 SOS? It goes even farther with Cheney and Rove deleting emails. Ok so Benghazi is part of it, again, 13 embassies were attacked prior and the outrage for them? People can’t cherry pick charges and outrage, politics.

          • purplember says:

            HD the FBI is investigating this for no reason at all ?? i believe $500 million to clinton foundation has alot to do with it.

            22 clinton emails were so HIGHLY CLASSIFIED that most at the white house were not even allowed to see them. no one with a brain doesn’t believe china, iran, north korea didn’t hack into these. and you want to give her the most powerful job in the world ? ha seems qualified

            • H D says:

              If the GOP would have given us a better option we wouldn’t need to even think about it.

              She broke an email policy…. That doesn’t give Trumpet an automatic vote.

              Chuck, nice FOX news talking points, actually there is zero difference. Only what your media is spinning.

              Hey, how about that 2094 Pivot…..

          • H D, what you’ll find is that neither Rice nor Powell maintained their own personal servers. They both had personal addresses, but the emails were retained on government computers under government control. Clinton’s computer was in her home and not subject to any government oversight. As a result neither Rice nor Powell could permanently delete their emails; Clinton could and did delete tens of thousands of emails that she, not her employer the government, deemed to be personal in nature.

            Hopefully now you can see the difference.

            • gary61b says:

              I seen a bumper sticker yesterday that said “Hillary for prison 2016”. 🙂

            • H D, your comment makes no sense. I googled “powell email server” and read the first several articles, none of which were from FOX and *all* of which were from more liberal sources like CNN. The fact is that you don’t have a reasonable response so you go full retard. Never go full retard.

              No more politics for a while. It’s like talking to a wall only less intelligible.

              • H D says:

                That’s the point Chuck, FOX isn’t going to tell the truth if it hurts GOP, The fact is there is precedent, that they, as you acknowledge, have failed to report on. Facts are not “full rtrd” Don’t take it personally and go all Trump on me.

              • H D, how thick are you? FOX has nothing to do with this. I didn’t get any of the facts from them. I got them from CNN, Politifact, etc. If you think FOX protects the GOP, then you likely think these other sources try to cut the GOP down. THEY provided the facts, not FOX. Clearly these FACTS are out there. I found them in 2 seconds on google.

                You are a Full Retard.

    • Dex T says:

      No surprises. Her entire career has been littered with incidents like this but continually get passed over/squashed

      Her defenders have consistently love to point out that “nothing sticks” but it’s because they bend the rules so much that they cease to exist at all.

  13. simpleiam says:

    TRIN at 0.56, and Buy signal has dropped from over 40% this morning to 24% now.

  14. Jack Sparrow says:

    the best indicator is the overbought and oversold indicator for these times. for overbought we correct 3/4 points and for oversold we correct 10/15 points till this trend changes this rally is alive

  15. simpleiam says:

    I never liked the terms “false” or “Fake” rally; a rally is a rally, however, I understand this guy’s point.

  16. phil1247 says:


    i am thinking of starting up a paid blog

    i you are interested in becoming an early subscriber….

    please contact my team of lawyers …

    they can be reached at…..

    Dewy Cheeetam and Howe .com


  17. fionamargaret says:

    ..only 107 pts to reach NAS 5000…..

  18. cj32 says:

    Few SPX posts…..CBZ

  19. phil1247 says:


    gold is in extension shorts

    also there is a traditional short just trading its .50 level now

    near the bottom you see the .50 extension LONG level which is key to the uptrend

    both shorts can hit their -23% targets which are both above the extension long and still keep the uptrend alive

    i am not shorting gold .
    break of extension short at 1234 should get a good squeeze going

  20. EL MATADOR says:

    We are near half way through 2016 and the economy is still slowing …. so please bulls enlighten me how we are going to get that booming 2.5-3.5% GDP for the 2nd/3rd Qtr

    “The Markit Composite PMI, which combines the manufacturing and services sectors, moved lower to near stall speed in May to 50.8 from 52.4 in April. On Monday, Markit released data showing the manufacturing sector edging closer towards stagnation, with the preliminary PMI index for May slowing down slightly to 50.5 from 50.8 in April.”


    • Wait until they revise home sales down.That # yesterday was insanely wrong.As I read somewhere,34% of kids 18-34 are living with the folks,don’t have $1000 saved up,yet we are to believe this jump in $300,000 new houses being bought .

      • phil1247 says:

        read that

        also boomers cant sell because johnny is living in the basement

      • ewmarkets says:

        I trust those housing numbers. I have been trying to buy a rental property since March with no success. I’ve submitted multiple offers, all above asking prices by $5k-$20K. Still I was outbid every time.

        A house just came out on the market down the street from us. It went on the market for all of two days and now is under contract.

        My agent set up searches for me in MLS for the area that I’m searching. I see that houses come up for sale starting Wednesday. By the following Tuesday, everything that is not outrageously priced are all under contract. There are essentially no inventory homes.

        • EL MATADOR says:

          Bingo! …a large pool of buyers are RE investors vs for for keeps… just as most new construction is for rental (RE investment) ….. that sector is becoming saturated.

        • purplember says:

          Ew why would you want to buy in a sellers market ?? 20k over asking price and your playing in the game ??

          • ewmarkets says:

            I want to buy because
            1) I’m viewing a rental property as a long term investment that I intend to hold for the rest of my life. 20K for a long time is not too much in the long run.
            2). We’re either in a bear market already or in P5 and the bear is coming. I’d like to diversify my investments to real estate and not have everything in the stock market.
            3). At current housing and rental prices, cash flow is still not negative if we don’t hire a manager. That means the tenants will be paying the mortgage so over time we’re building equity and as rents slowly go up and we accumulate more properties, rental income can become a reliable source of income in our retirement–certainly more reliable than the stock market.
            4). Metro Denver, where I live, has experienced population gains every year probably for at least 20 years now. Population will continue to grow.
            5). If I do not buy now and wait for the market to become balanced, I may have to wait for 5 years or more. In the meantime, home prices may continue to go up and I would not have started building equity for another 5 years. A realtor told me, in order for the housing market to be balanced, Metro Denver needs to have 25,000 houses in inventory. Right now, we have 4,000, he said. So a long ways to wait for the housing market to become balanced.

        • Jimmy Porter says:

          where do you live?

        • Gary Lewis says:

          Try Chicago or where I’m at SW suburbs of Cook County. People can’t get away from the rising tax bills fast enough

      • simpleiam says:

        They don’t have to revise home sales downward. Sales could be just as strong as indicated. They were in 2005-2007 also. The hitch is the way the money for those homes was borrowed/financed, then “bundled”. I have to assume that what’s going on in my neck of the woods is happening everywhere else too: No Credit Check, No Down Payment, Easy Payment Terms. Only difference this time is big banks allegedly not involved.

    • donaldfagan says:

      Devils Advocate: Does it matter? They said the Bond Market couldn’t keep going up and it has for nearly a decade now. Ask yourself, where does all that Bond $ go now that interest rates are rising?

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Money always has somewhere to go, always. Ask the foreign govts what they are doing with the funds they are withdrawing from the US bond markets. Investors that are not mandated to bond market investing only can divert the bond funds to cash, PMs, excessively undervalued assets(incl tangible/hard assets)/equities, hedging, etc.

        The Fed and Roosevelt administration didn’t think it mattered in late 1936 thru mid 1937 then until it did matter … So yes it will matter.

  21. fishonhook says:

    At what level does this whole B wave , dare I say it bear market theory get tossed into the garbage?
    Anyone know?

  22. ABchart says:

    ES 30 minutes:

  23. H D says:

    B waves continue to be stronger than anticipated. That’s a market characteristic that hasn’t changed. I have a Pivot at 2094. My disclaimer “60% of the time it happens every time”

  24. vivelaamo says:

    It feels like a repeat of the start of April all over again. This blog is nuts with how quick it switches from extreme bull to extreme bear and back again in the space of days.

  25. Tony – thank you for a great & generous site.

    to the unbelievers – and specifically some – why are you behaving like %$$%es. Tony hasn’t been right (yet) but certainly hasn’t been wrong (yet). He is showing you the “most” probable roadmap and if he’s off by +/-10 points or even 20, then so be it. If you’re looking for someone that will pick the top or bottom by +/-1 point , then consult a clairvoyant.

    For my part, i read tony’s “opinion” but ultimately its my skin in the game and I will do what i think should happen. If my action is wrong, blame myself not someone else.

  26. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony.
    that -ve div on 60 min chart needs to be corrected

  27. phil1247 says:


    extexnsion long target of 2092 …… HIT !

    NEW target 2100.25

    BULLISH above 2070

    • micky says:

      nicely done 1247

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Whatever the reason the markets are so strong has become irrelevant to me and I guess we have reached a permanently high plateau. At least for a while.. I was clearly wrong and no sizable correction should take place. Unless the Chinese do something outlandish but nothing matters, so….markets remain high, higher and higherer.

  28. 123 abc says:

    “B” waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often “unconfirmed” by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, “There is something wrong with this market,” chances are it’s a “B” wave. —Elliott Wave Principle – Key to Market Behavior

    • ABchart says:

      No top here. We stil need à 15/20 pts pullback then a slight HH near 2100.

    • mjtplayer says:

      The move yesterday and this morning certainly “feels” like panic buying – i.e. panic short covering and panic longs chasing performance (FOMO)

      – The VIX tagged the lower BB this morning, which is usually a bottom and reversal higher.

      – Major Bradley turn date today

      – Everyone is now positioned long for a continued rally into the holiday weekend. i.e. everyone is now on the same side of the boat.

      – Equity put/call has just plunged to 0.6 (nobody is buying puts)

      – Dennis Gartman warns not to be short stocks

      – Goldman is bullish stocks, after being bearish last week.

      – Treasuries are rallying today and are only fractionally lower between today and yesterday, while the DOW is up 350pts??

      It’s time to reverse and catch the bulls off guard, max pain for everyone.

      • locanbbs says:

        How does that fit in with what “marketanalysis” is saying below?

        • mjtplayer says:

          What he said below was true on Sunday, when he claims he wrote it. Today, the stats and commentaries are the exact opposite.

          Even Jim Cramer was bullish this a.m. He was so giddy he almost fell out of his chair, nothing but smiles and bullish comments.

      • simpleiam says:

        TRIN at .59, with 48% Buy signal, so move to upside might be topping.

      • aahmichael says:

        mjt, in regards to the Bradley turn date, is that something that’s open to interpretation? I ask because I know nothing about it, so out of curiosity I googled it, and the first site that came up says it’s on June 1st. Thanks.

    • 123 abc says:

      Bearish Gartley Shark pattern?

      CD=AB * 1.382
      CD = XC * 0.786
      Minor-c = Minor-a * 1.382

  29. blackjak100 says:

    Blow through 2100 before a 11+ pt pullback and major 3 is underway. This is the only alternate possible which fits with EW & OEW.

  30. Last post then I’ll let you guys carry on

    This was on my Sunday report, was classic Wave 4 confirmation bottom stuff:

    Lets examine a few that we commented on late in the week both to our SR and SRP members:

    Goldman Sachs pounding the table Bearish the markets on Wednesday morning, since when does Goldman help out the retail investor? Always fade their calls… (Oil to $20, Gold to $1,000 etc)
    Jim Cramer on CNBC decidedly bearish this week in the morning shows. Jimmy always gets super bearish right at bottoms.
    Dennis Gartman starts the week very bearish on US Stocks. When is Dennis ever right at major pivots?
    George Soros and Carl Icahn with large US stock market short positions. Carl is wrong about 1/2 the time on his bets, not much better than a coin flip
    IPO’s at lows not seen since 2003 and 2009 (Both market bottoms)
    5 day Put to Call ratio hit 1.37 this week, the highest reading in 5 years… wow
    Equity Funds have seen out flows in 13 of the last 16 weeks as investors pull 44 Billion out. Retail investors always bail at the bottoms and invest at the tops as a rule.
    Bond funds seeing massive inflows along with money market funds and Gold all year…scared money…
    Percentage of NYSE stocks over the 50 day MA line fell from 90% to 45% in last 5 weeks
    NYMO oscillator neared the 2016 lows earlier this week
    AAII surveys on May 16th had only 20% Bulls, historically its near 40%
    Oil continues higher as we have projected ignoring bearish projections from the crowd
    Commodities (CRB) index remains in solid uptrend
    Chip stocks are rallying and turning up, a leading indicator
    The beat down Biotech and Pharma sector may be finally turning up
    US Dollar is likely peaking out on its rally in our opinion
    Wave 4 correction we projected would be 2014/17 or 2028 area, this week hit 2025 and rallied
    5 week correction is about right after a 10 week rally

    • locanbbs says:

      How does that fit in with what “mjtplayer” is saying above?

    • H D says:

      and for only $99/ month. What a deal. I like your disclaimer “SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.” That makes it a little easier now doesn’t it?

      Carry on.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Yep, agreed before and agree now

      • Page says:

        Your wife must be proud of you, you always AGREE. Is there something happened in your life to repeat word AGREE? Please share your thoughts. 😀

  31. last comment for the day, 3 and out. looks like today is the day to see who is right. Do all bears capitulate and we rocket higher to new highs on short squeeze fuel or to bears capitulate and then we tank. it is what it is. and has been for the last 7 years. if a bull path or a bear path , the bull path has always won. Im still hoping tony is right, for my financial sake and his bold call, would hate for Gartman and Crammer to be right. Anyway will cover at 2011 . over and out til Tuesday. everyone enjoy your 3 day weekend, bulls go spend lot of your money, bears, stay home and drink lots of cheap bear or wine.

  32. ABchart says:

    ES live 2092. We are in wave 3 of “C” of “B”. This 3 can top here. Still wave 4 (15/20 points pullback) then 5.
    So the final target for these “C”/”B” can be 2100/105 by Friday. By Monday in Europe.

  33. ABC is EW 101 stuff

    2111 was a 161% move wave 3 1892-2111 from Wave 1 which was 1810-1926, complex 2

    Wave 4 was 2111-2025, a nice 38% Fib of 1892-2111

    Wave 5 is targeted at 2160 a basic 5 off 2025 pivot

  34. Peter Sliney says:

    I think there’s little doubt that all time new highs are in the near future. The market is gapping and accelerating and loves round numbers 2200. After that summer will be a bore fest until November.

  35. mjtplayer says:

    The VIX just tagged the bottom of the BB and is now bordering oversold (RSI 30) on the daily. BB width still under 300bps – amazingly tight. Got as tight as 282bps just after the open – insane.

    Max pain for the bears. Major Bradley turn date today, it’s been a melt-up into this turn date, we’ll see if it continues or tops-out soon.

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      i think we are a victim of group thinking here.. keep it simple and see what is in front of us.rather than coming up with complicated counts……

      • all you need are fibs and a calculator and trend line… minor waves only confuse people, use daily and weekly for best results… I dont think RN intended for people to measure every squiggle… you get lost in the noise

      • captbara says:

        You only need to look at yen. I keep saying it but everyone loves to try and count the hardest thing.

        Bulls want a little pullback here and tomorrow though to cool off indicators.

    • They left three daily SPX gaps open (including today) in four days to get here and do this too, and just closed the last of the gaps above from last week today in the process.

      We are at 4 week highs today too, so a decent extreme, though above 2100 would put us at 5 week highs, and above 2111 at multi-month highs. Either way, confirmation of a turn would be welcome, and those three daily gaps below (plus 1932 as a monthly gap and 1865 as a weekly gap) all beckon.

    • pete8675309 says:

      People underestimate the power that can stop a train (MB) but you still have to trade what you know and use tight tight stops…

  36. herringjd1 says:

    It’$ Hammertime!!! All I need is those pants.

  37. Is Yellen flying in a helicopter or what?Who popped the champagne?

  38. brutal, relentless. Let’s just get to new highs so all us bears give up. I regret ever finding this blog.

  39. scottycj1 says:

    2093….next resistance

  40. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Well when the market is buying energy and financials and digesting normalization without freaking out it surely is not indicative of a bearish mindset. Furthermore look at last two days and last week. Declines were corrective in behavior while advances were impulsive in behavior. And 2070 and 2085 taken out with such ease as if they meant nothing. I have to start making plans for this advancing much further. silly silly bear I have been

  41. 2093 and bulls don’t look scared. go figure. Tony, I hope your right

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      He isn’t and hasn’t been for a while. Sad to say it but Tony’s proprietary model is extremely flawed since 14. Still appreciate his site and blog. The hardest things to hear are the things that make you better. Some of you have such a problem with this. Tony needs to question his model….it’s just not working

  42. Our weekend Super Bullish contrarian report was out last Sunday, its on my site. In it 12 bullet points for why the market was bottoming last week. Also bullish views on Oil and CRB and SP 500 indexes.

    Gold has tanked, but at 1220 spot may set up for bump to 1252

    1257 is long term resistance now

    Good luck all

    2160 on the way

  43. Arthur Knopf says:

    Very short indicator shows top is near for next few days.

  44. I assume most of you are now confirmed this is Primary 5 From 1810 right? Its been painfully obvious with all the Fibonacci pivots the whole way up being almost perfect

    Wave 5 targets 2160 of Int 1

    At what point do Bears give up the ghost?

    • pfm225 says:

      must say some doubts are creeping in……….:)
      but……….bull only on short term basis 😉

    • captbara says:

      It’s already major 3 of P5. Could actually be intermed 3 if it becomes crazy bullish over the next 3 years.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Slow it down cookie…. you trying claiming victory cigar even before you win the race

      • The fibs and pivots have been fibonacci perfect from 1810, just total textbook elliott waves, so no reason to fade them is my point. 2160 should hit in July if not before.

        Confirmation bias kills E wave forecasters, so they keep interpreting every small wave to fit their bias… totally willing to change my views, but the pivots and waves have been just beautiful on the way up and the 2 and 4 corrections… so just have to roll with it.

        The truncated Primary 5 never quite added up… now your getting participation in other sectors to push the indexes higher is all…

        GL all

        • EL MATADOR says:

          I get all that but that is just one probable count of many probable count and some of those count point down.

          I make it simple….I will bet you a gentleman bet that we revisit 1810 low before we make a new ATH …. what say you Master Bull?

    • zepfan123 says:

      Probably when we start closing over the current ATH level of SPX 2130..which was made over a year ago.

      • simpleiam says:

        Hey zepfan! Welcome back! I’m planning a Mixed Dance for an exhibition.
        Viennese Waltz and 2-Step to Tangerine. It’s a jaw dropper!

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