Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW -8

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 2052 close. By 10:30 the SPX had worked its way higher to 2056, then pulled back to 2049 by noon. After another rally to SPX 2055 the market hit 2047 just before a 2048 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: New homes sales at 10am.

The market started the week on a fairly quiet note. After opening one point lower it remained in a nine point range for the entire day: 4 above and 5 below Fridays’ close. Thus far we see only one wave up from Thursday’s SPX 2026 low to Friday’s 2058 high, and then a pullback to 2047. Still expecting a pop to the 2070 pivot range. Short term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum headed toward oversold with today’s activity. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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248 Responses to Monday update

  1. locanbbs says:

    Up to at least 2085.
    Spx (hourly):

  2. locanbbs says:

    Tony, isn’t this an “impulse wave”? Mjtplayer seems to think not.

  3. Jack Sparrow says:

    on a lighter note,now to complete the day, Ahh will tell us that he closed his position sometime today

  4. Just goes to show you that saving Apple from dropping below 90 meant blue skies ahead.Never underestimate PPT.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …..maybe buyers….not so cynical….

      • fotis2 says:

        Exceptional call Fiona on AAPL What made you go long I wonder ..

        • fionamargaret says:

          Fotis, I had bought it about a week previously, and sold as it was doing nothing….I had it in my head…so when it dipped below 90, I bought again. I did say it was a short to 73, so be careful if buying…..I think Stan followed me into AAPL’s waters. You cannot think the market is going up, without AAPL…..x

    • captbara says:

      Buffet and PPT in cahoots.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..but I am not in cahoots..

        • Jim Guthery says:

          It’s always nice to sit back and observe for a minute.

        • micky says:

          haha super call FM

          • fionamargaret says:

            …now think about UVXY…you all can check your charts…think oil is breaking 50, and if it does, goes to about 55…..I can’t tell you why oil would be going higher….maybe security concerns in Saudi…who knows…but someone is bidding it up…yes, I bought it..

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        Yeah let’s all cheer and sing kumbaya because a minuscule portion of Berkshire was invested in Apple at eh hem 109 especially since they did so well with their last tech play in IBM. No offense Fiona but you got lucky with the Berk disclosure. There was no reason to buy more of it but luck is part of the game too so congrats.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Well you guys are so great technically, I can only hope for dumb luck……

  5. Let them re-taste the 209 area on SPY…………

  6. rd3777 says:

    This psycho market…run the &*%^ out of the shorts…..wait till turn #7

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    higher rates, higher oil, higher profits, and lower yields, and Cancer cured, and a space colony too! I am so glad everything is now solved. Wheeww I thought we actually had problems for a little while there but the FED said it was all going to happen. Thank God the all powerful all knowing ones spoke and told us the Good News. Praise the Lord

  8. gary61b says:

    I like the ES 2077.5 for possible turn point

  9. I am not longer that bullish on SPY/SPX since volume fail to follow the move. It is a fake trial to break the high.
    Or it changes and volume spike or I will get short soon.

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    This market is going to 2085 today – totally moronic but nothing is stopping this today – nothing

    • ewtoriginal says:

      As the esteemed Jim Cramer just said” This rally came out of nowhere”.Um, yeah. Very,very bull market like.

  11. Dex T says:

    WIlliams again but this time the market is believing him and the Fed.

    Fed’s Williams: ‘The economy could withstand a rate hike’

    John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said Monday that the Fed is seriously weighing a June rate hike.

    • But seriously folks…the weight they’re using is a dove feather.
      Richmond Fed joined the previous regional Feds with a minus number.Redbook was down.New housing seems a little out there.The markets are always right though.

      • Dex T says:

        S&P earnings have been the worst since 2009 and yet the market “approved”. A 0.25 hike likely won’t change it substantially

        The indices will tumble when the “social mood” changes.

    • simpleiam says:

      The numbers were worse in Dece. than they are now, and Fed raised. When are people going to figure out that The Fed has given everyone the news a month ahead of time. The Fed will raise in June. Guess it will be a shock, since many aren’t listening. Then, you all will get your pullback.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    If we don’t get a dump tomorrow i’m gonna cry

  13. Scott C says:

    Could the miners and GDX have turned yesterday late and now the spx is due to follow them today?

  14. phil1247 says:


    resistance at .618 level holding at 2073.50

    we have 2 equal waves

    abc or 123 ……per trader joe???

    sold half remaining upro 64.73

  15. Jack Sparrow says:

    we are just completingthe second leg up from 2025- if its B it needs to not make the third leg ie another leg up- if it does then it opens up lot of possibilities

  16. blackjak100 says:

    VIX going to explode to the upside during int C by next week. Just ask MJT about BB width on the VIX. Pieces are in place for int C drop except slightly higher prices.

    • ewmarkets says:

      At what SPX level would you consider that Wave 2 has completed and Wave C would not materialize? SPX 2100?

      • blackjak100 says:

        2111 because the expanded flat target c=1.618*a = 2099. Does it have to hit the target? No, but it’s very probable it reaches at least 2085 to avoid a truncation. Just have to watch indicators for reversal around 2085-2099. Also, need to see where wave 3 ends as well to zero in on smaller target. NYAD = +1500ish supporting a ‘c wave’ up.

    • captbara says:

      BB tightening does not indicate a direction.

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    markets are going to 2085 today. How is the count changed if we go flying through 2085 though?

  18. phil1247 says:


    2073.50 hit…its the .618 retrace from high

    trade thru there could create panic short covering

  19. bears need a close at or under 2060 to set up a big down,

  20. timmy321 says:

    Anyone who thinks that we are in the midst of a bear market needs a 101 in market sensing skills. No charts needed to sense that.

    • You make it sound so simple, and yet you’re wrong…

      • timmy321 says:

        yeah you are God who knows for sure what is next. I have seen time and time again people getting swayed in the wrong direction following this blog to the T. I know because I have been and learnt my lesson the hard way. Tony gets it horribly wrong many a times. The only thing that works like a charm is his pivots.

    • zepfan123 says:

      Maybe not a bear market here…but we could stay ‘sideways’ for a lot longer going forward. Could easily be another year of NO new ATH’s.

    • bud67 says:

      ans, that is this websites view, of late….hmmm

  21. blackjak100 says:

    At this pace, int B should complete this week 2085-2095. Clearly 3 of c of int B today.

    • ewtoriginal says:

      The strength is impressive enough for me to say no bear market.It shouldnt have been able to bounce this much this fast. In spite of very low volume and virtually zero news and lower asian markets, the DAX/CAC was able to rally and carry the DJIA with it much more than should be possible from potential breakdown territory. Agree that impulse waves down are retraced far too easily but I attributed that to the CB games playing. The silliness continues and can do whatever “they” want it to. I still have no idea what actually induced this rally.

      • ewt…, The news will come tomorrow…watch out..

      • blackjak100 says:

        correct this is major 2 and not bear market, but need int C first towards 1996. Mjt has mentioned BB width being extremely narrow. I can’t stress enough int C could be 100+ or drop in less than 2 weeks starting in days. The pieces are now in place. It’s soon time to get long gold as well…near $1200.

        • With the dollar getting stronger why would you be long Gold here?

          • blackjak100 says:

            I’m not long gold yet. $1190 would complete the 38.2% retrace ($1046-$1305) as an expanded flat and $1190 = 1.618*wave A adding more conviction. Expanded flats indicate strength and I believe the next wave up could be a third wave. Inflation is gaining steam and I believe people will buy gold as a hedge.

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